Week 6 briefs and tips!

Cardinals (+10) @ Vikings: Total – 43

The Cardinals didn’t play well but got a win against the hapless 49ers last week. The best moment of the game came in the first few minutes a 75 yard bomb to Christian Kirk. They got DJ going finally as well and will need him here. Surely the Vikings won’t slip up again after winning against the Eagles last week. They could do with a run game, but Cousins, Thielen and Diggs can do it themselves. Dalvin Cook is apparently a full go for this game, but you can’t trust the Vikings O-Line to create lanes for him at all, so it’s a watching brief on him this week.

Vikings win. Thielen (11/8 Betfred) or Diggs (11/8) will score, I’d imagine that Diggs will be covered by Patrick Peterson for a lot of the day, so I’d lean to Thielen. A big price? Jermaine Gresham (12/1) is back for the Cardinals and got more targets than RSJ last week, but it’s going to be difficult for the Cardinals to get near enough to make that matter.

Buccaneers (+3) @ Falcons: Total – 57

Should be the highest scoring game of the week, neither team has a defense, it’s in a dome and both offenses should be firing. Jameis had nearly 300 and 3 against a full strength Falcons defense last season, he should top that this year. They have no run game so he’ll be throwing the ball a lot. I’d imagine the Falcons will want to get Freeman back up and running, but whether they’ll be able to if the Buccs are free-flowing is a different matter, both QBs should be a good bet for yards in this one. Devonta Freeman is out of this game, so it seems likely it will be Ito Smith as the goal-line back, he scored last week and there’s 5/2 available on him this if you fancy it.

I requested a few Julio Jones markets, he can have some huge games against Tampa. His line is set at 110.5 yards at 10/11. You can get 5/2 on o150 and 10/1 on o200 yards on Skybet, if you really want to splash out then 250+ yards is 33/1 on RedzoneSports. I’ve had a little on each of them decreasing with the higher lines.

It probably makes sense to take the overs on most lines in this game, it could be huge stat-wise. Jameis Winston o282.5 passing yards (PP) – 2 points

The Falcons are the best 1-4 team in the league, they won’t go 1-5 – Falcons win, cover the spread and the game goes over. Falcons -3 (1/3 on spread treble)

Bills (+10) @ Texans: Total – 41

This isn’t going to be watched by many people, the Bills pulled off another upset. It looks like if their defense turns up they’ll probably win, but less than 100 passing yards probably isn’t the way to win games. The Texans are actually looking a little better and Keke Coutee seems to be an important cog for them already alongside Nuk and Fuller.

Keke Coutee – o49.5 rec. yards – 1/1 (PP) – 2 points (Set at 66.5 on Skybet)

Texans win. Won’t be touching the handicap, lean to the overs.

Panthers (-1.5) @ Redskins: Total – 45

The Redskins got hammered this week with Alex Smith apparently having a nightmare. It won’t get easier for him against a good Panthers defense. Adrian Peterson didn’t play the full game and Chris Thompson got a knock too, it seems like Peterson and Thompson will be questionable for the game, Peterson will likely play, I’m not sure on Thompson, the backup seems to be Kapri Bibbs, but he’s too short to take a stab at anytime. The Panthers welcomed Curtis Samuel (11/1) to the league he broke through half of the Giants defense trying to tackle him to score last week, he’s a player I’m high on so it was nice to see. They’ll surely get CmcC going again this week, and Greg Olsen should be returning too.

I think the Panthers win, but it’s a tough spot with the Redskins getting smashed on TV last week, coming home, they’ll be desperate to put in a good performance.

Bears (-3.5) @ Dolphins: Total – 41.5

Another line I thought would be larger. If Matt Nagy (head coach of the Bears) is anything like his previous boss he’ll have his team ready and flying after their early bye week. Khalil Mack is a defensive MVP lock at the moment and their offense got going against the Buccs last game. The Dolphins ran well vs the Bengals but coaching let them down in the end, they won’t be able to dink and dunk against one of the better D’s in the league. I can’t judge what the Bears are going to do week in, week out, so I’m off all TDs and yardage bets here, and the Dolphins just aren’t very good.

Bears win and cover.

Steelers (+2) @ Bengals: Total – 50.5

A win here for the Bengals and they’ll be the talk of the town, they’re already atop the AFC standings, but lets be fair, they’re the Bengals so no-one gives a toss. They have won games in different ways so far, on both offense and defense, but the loss of Eifert and Ross hit them last week, hopefully Ross will return this week to smash up a poor Steelers defense. The Steelers had success pass rushing last week, maybe baby-Watt isn’t just a name after all. James Connor had a good game last week and will need to this week. WJ3 usually shuts down Antonio Brown, that matchup particularly will be a cracker! Juju will probably score and do some horribly inappropriate celebration, probably libelous against Burfict that the world will think is hilarious. God I hate that guy. This is another that’s incredibly tough to call, it’s usually a rough stunted game with a lot of flags, Tomlin, the useless fuck has already been bitching about flags against his team so he’s doing his best to get things his way already.

Apparently AJ Green struggles against Joe Haden, 91.5 yards for him on skybet is quite high so I’d lean under on that, if he is struggling it should mean more for Tyler Boyd who had targets last week but didn’t have his best game, o5 receptions at 11/10 on PP looks good for him. There’s also a big gap in yard lines on Boyd, 65.5 on 365 and 84.5 on Skybet so a big middle there if you like doing that kind of thing.

TJ Watt and Geno Atkins both have 6 sacks on the season and they’re both going against relatively poor offensive lines, the sack line is worth searching for on this one I think.

Unfortunately I just can’t see a Bengals win (Don’t tell Whodey_uk) We just can’t ever beat these pricks. Steelers +2 10/11 (2/3 on spread treble)

Juju Smith-Schuster anytime – 11/8 (Skybet) – 2 points

Chargers (-1) @ Browns: Total – 44.5

Every preview in the world this week will tell you that Gordon and Ekeler are on target to beat the combined scrimmage yards of Ingram and Kamara in that explosive Saints offense last year. They’ve really looked great, both of them scoring last week. Rivers is a top 10 QB for me, they just need to solidify their beaten up defense and they’ll be up there. In fairness the Chargers have only lost to the Chiefs and the Rams. God knows what Browns team will show up, they’ve kept all their games close so far and probably will in this one. Rashard Higgins looked like a good target for Mayfield, but he’ll be missing out, his replacement Derrick Willies (Seriously, I had so many Willies based puns for when he scored) is also out after fracturing his collarbone, so they picked up first round failure Breshard Perrieman. He’s shit.

Chargers win a close one, and a strong lean to the Unders on this one.

Duke Johnson Jnr o21.5 receiving yards – 10/11 – 1 point

Nick Chubb anytime – 11/1 (Skybet) – 1 point – It’s a longshot, he only really gets 3 carries a game, but he has shown he can break off a big run given the chance, I’ll take a look at 11/1

Colts (+1.5) @ Jets: Total – 46.5

The Colts have to win a game eventually right? Andrew Luck is looking back to health and they’ve had 10 days after the TNF loss to the Patriots, Ebron will probably score again, but he was listed as having an “everything” injury earlier in the week which is a worry, Chester Rogers should get a lot of targets from Luck, Nyheim Hines was the main guy last week, but Marlon Mack is back for them which is a worry for his production. The Jets smashed the Broncos at the metlife but the Colts defense is probably better than the Broncos is at present. Crowell has been on the injury report this week so Powell yards look like a good bet if he’s confirmed out, they’re high though, so not for me.

Cpt. Andrew Luck provides a Colts win on the road. They lost last week, the Jets won last week, from the way this season has gone that means the opposite this week. FACTS.

Eric Swoope – 13/2 anytime (Skybet) – 1 point

Seahawks (-3) @ Raiders: Total – 48 – Wembley

The Wembley games add a little bit of confusion in general, they’re both west coast teams with a long journey to the UK, generally I’ll lean to whomever arrives here the earliest, in this case it was the Seahawks, I also think that the Seahawks are the better team, but neither of these teams are particularly strong on defense so it should be quite high scoring. Look for the 2nd half total points line. The Seahawks finally seem to have sorted their offensive line a little and have been using it to run and run and run the ball, Carson had 32 touches a few weeks back, and he and Mike Davis shared carries the week just gone, Carson got more of the carries, and at 8/5 he’s not a bad bet this week to score.

Seahawks win. Lean over.

There’s a big difference in lines for Chris Carson, 70.5 on PP and 84.5 on Skybet, you could make some good money taking the over on the lower and the under on the higher line and hoping for a middle, worst case you’ll lose a quid or so, best case you win £20ish (on £10 stakes) – In fact there’s a few lines like this I’ll post them at the end of this)

I will personally be having another go on David Moore and 2+ for him, I owe him that after last week, but it’s stupidly unlikely!

Rams (-7) @ Broncos: Total – 52

The Rams have scored 30+ points in every game so far, Cooks and Kupp left the game last week, but are both looking like they’ll be playing again this week. It’s the first little bit of adversity they’ve had in 2 seasons as they’re a remarkably healthy team! But the scheme that Sean McVay runs seems to have guys in acres of space whoever they are so I don’t expect too much to change against a Broncos side who gave up 225 yards on the ground last week. Gurley will eat. The worry here is that the Broncos play a lot better at home, the weather is possible snow which won’t suit the guys from California and the Broncos were stuffed last week on the road so will need a bounce back.

Rams win – NAP – under the total, I can’t see the Broncos scoring much. I think the Broncos may cover.

Ravens (-3) @ Titans: Total – 41

Unders. It’s a low total, but the these have 2 of the better defenses in the league, and average to below average offenses. The Titooooooons were god damn awful last week. The Ravens not much better. I’m surprised the Ravens are favourites to be honest.

I think this will be very low, so nothing on TD or Yards for me.

Unders. Lean to the Titans covering.

Jaguars (-3) @ Cowboys: Total – 40.5

God. Who cares?! This could be hideous. Fournette is out again and he could be out until after their bye week with his injury. TJ Yeldon will get most of the load, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see 5 ypc Jamaal Charles mixed in, apparently he’s been waiting for the chance to join a contender and this is it. The Cowboys don’t deserve any write up.

Another one I won’t be paying much attention to, Dak Prescott anytime – 15/2 (Skybet) – 1 point is worth a punt though, he’s usually 10/3 so at that price it’d be silly not to back him. Zeke at Evens at home looks tempting too in fairness

Jaguars win and Cover, lean under.

Chiefs (+3) @ Patriots: Total – 59.5

The powerhouse vs the new pretenders, and oh my god. 60 points total?! Belichick generally schemes to take away one main weapon, unless that weapon is Mahomes here I’m not sure they’ll be able to stop them scoring. You stop Hunt and Hill and Kelce will kill you, stop either of them and Hunt will score 3 against you again. The Patriots looked revived with Brady having his boy back in the slot last week, Josh Gordon got on the scoresheet too so will no doubt have gained some trust with Tommy boy.

This is probably the toughest call of the week for me. You’ve got to take the Patriots in Foxborough though, right? Patriots -3 (3/3 on spread treble)

Josh Gordon o29.5 rec. yards (Skybet) – 10/11 – NAP – 5 points. 

In fact Josh Gordon 100+ yards and score a TD (Skybet) – 80/1 – 1 point

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Summary – 

Spread treble:

• Falcons -3
• Steelers +2
• Patriots -3

Treble price – 6/1 – 2 points

Anytime TD scorers:

• Juju Smith-Schuster anytime – 11/8 (Skybet) – 2 points
• Nick Chubb anytime – 11/1 (Skybet) – 1 point
• Eric Swoope – 13/2 anytime (Skybet) – 1 point
• Dak Prescott anytime – 15/2 (Skybet) – 1 point

Player props:

• Jameis Winston o282.5 passing yards (PP) – 2 points
• Keke Coutee – o49.5 rec. yards – 1/1 (PP) – 2 points
• Duke Johnson Jnr o21.5 receiving yards (Skybet) – 10/11 – 1 point
• Josh Gordon o29.5 rec. yards (Skybet) – 10/11 – NAP – 5 points
• Josh Gordon 100+ yards and a TD (Skybet) – 80/1 – 1 point

17 points here.

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Taking advantage of the discrepancies.

So Paddypower and Skybet have a lot of big gaps in yardage lines for this weekend.

You can make some very good money taking advantage of these by backing both sides.

For example. Big Ben is 288.5 yards on Paddypower at Evens, whilst he’s 309.5 yards on Skybet at 10/11. – So. You want to back over 288.5 on Paddypower with £10 – returns £20 and then under 309.5 on Skybet with £11, returns £21. – If he’s between 289 and 308 then you win both and make £21 in profit. If he only wins one you’ll lose £1 total. That’s the most you’ll lose.

• Big Ben 288.5 on PP, 309.5 on Skybet
• Tyler Boyd 67.5 on PP, 84.5 on Skybet
• Larry Fitzgerald 39.5 on PP, 50.5 on Skybet
• Cooper Kupp 63.5 on PP, 82.5 on Skybet
• Jameis Winston 282.5 on PP, 309.5 on 365
• Josh Gordon 29.5 on Skybet, 47.5 on PP 10/11

So if you want to, then you should be able to make some money on those.

 

So there you have it, a bit different this week ending it with that, lets see how it all goes!