Week 8 briefs and tips

3 of 5 winning bets on Thursday night for a couple of points profit, can’t moan about that really

Remember that if you’re watching from the UK that games kick off an hour earlier than usual!!! 1330 for the Wembley game, 1700 for the usual 1800 games and 2005 and 2025 for the later ones. One the plus side it means the awesome looking SNF game between the Packers and the Rams is “only” 0030!


Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Total – 43

The final Wembley game of the year! This is the one we were all looking forward to, the Superbowl champs against the AFC championship losers… and what do we get? 2 teams out of form, one of them having benched their QB last week. This is a getting close to a loser goes home match, their in 2 of the worst divisions this year, but can’t afford to stumble through too many more matches. It’s increasingly difficult to trust either team here, the Eagles are the better of the two but the Jags seem to thrive playing in London. For that reason I’ve got to think the introduction of Carlos Hyde to the fold as the fill in for Fournette will allow them to control the clock a little more, whilst essentially making TJ Yeldon unplayable in fantasy until we see what happens, and Bortles seems to do well here, look for him to throw a TD to a tight end – If they had any fit. I’m actually tempted to take a shot on Tommy Bo, there always seems to be something weird happening in the Jags London games

OK, on further inspection this is a game to utterly avoid. AJ Bouye is out for the Jags, I’m assuming that’s part of the reason the Eagles have nudged up half a point and the total has gone up 1.5. I have no idea how the Jags team are going to deal with the travel on this one knowing that Blake Bortles is still their QB. It will either bring them together, or create more division between the offense and defense. I will say that I do still think the Jaguars could pull off the upset although the Eagles arrived quite early in the week so have had time to acclimatise.

OK, it’s not often I change my pick but the news that 4 of the Jags defensive players spent a few hours in the cells last night after trying to walk out without paying a rather large bill means that I’ve got to take the Eagles now!

Jaguars getting 3.5 points would be my bet if I were being forced to bet. However I’m not, so I’m staying away. I’ll probably have some stupid RaB on come 1300 tomorrow to make watching it a little less painful, but I know it’s not sensible.

Baltimore Ravens (-2 -3) @ Carolina Panthers: Total – 44

The Ravens are on the road again, travelling to Carolina to take on the Panthers who pulled off their biggest 4th quarter comeback last weekend. These are two teams I struggle a little with, both defensively sound, both capable of scoring when needed. I can see it being a tight, fairly low scoring game.

Ok, this has now gone up to the Ravens being 3 point favourites, I can only assume this is due to Cam Newton being on the injury report? This is another that I really don’t have a whole lot to say about it, Cam has multiple passing TDs in every game other than the opener, over 1.5 passing TDs is 6/5 on Skybet. Against a very tough defense, it’s a risk, but that’s pretty good odds and if he’s banged up a little he probably won’t be rushing as much. With that in mind, u40.5 is probably a sensible bet, but Cam probably won’t listen to anyone if he’s told to keep himself safe and might run anyway.

The Panthers, getting points, at home has to be the side i’m on though, and a lean to the under.

  • Tribet – Any other result – (basically either team to win by 5 or fewer points – 15/8

Denver Broncos (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs: Total – 55

So, Case Keenum is going to remain the QB for quite a bit longer than expected now that Chad Kelly has been arrested and released… not exactly what you want to do if you’re trying to challenge for the starting job! The Chiefs defense is their weakest point however it does seem to have been improving over recent weeks, that sucks for everyone else in the league!

I was fairly surprised to hear that Kareem Hunt has a TD in every game other than the first of the season this year, with all the talk being about the passing game he’s been a little overlooked. He’s priced accordingly but a good one for DK. Travis Kelce traditionally has good games against the Broncos, even with a new regime he had 7 catches for 78 yards against them last time. He’s 10/11 for o5.5 receptions on Skybet which looks reasonable. The Broncos? They’ll likely be playing catch up and without Royce Freeman I would imagine Phillip Lindsay will take his role and Devontae Booker will be in the 3rd down/pass catching RB role. I like o20.5 receiving yards for him on Skybet at 5/6

Chiefs win, leave the spread, and probably lean under as it’s a divisional match and I don’t see the Broncos scoring too much.

  • Devontae Booker o20.5 rec. yards – 5/6 – Skybet

Cleveland Browns (+8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Total – 51

The first in-season re-match sees a resurgent Steelers team at home, rested off a bye week against a Browns who are back to failing to deliver. They’ve been in every game towards the end but just don’t seem to be able to string wins together. Oh, Lev Bell still isn’t back, so still on James Connor which should be fine for them, he’s really not bad at all (He’s actually got better stats than Bell did at this point last year and their offense is scoring more per game with with Lev)

As with above the Browns will likely be trailing so getting Duke Johnson Jnr. at o21.5 yards at 5/6 looks pretty good, he’ll be the 3rd down guy with Nick Chubb taking the hard yards in the first 2 downs. I like Njoku (o44.5 on Skybet, around 11 yards shorter than elsewhere) here against the 4th worst team vs TE in the league. Landry seems to have finally settled with Baker, other than that it’s tough to go near anyone on the Cleveland side. The Pitt side? Brown and Juju will get a lot of the ball, AB seems to have very good games against Cleveland and 5/6 for him anytime (Skybet) looks good to me. Vance McDonald should have a good game as well.

Steelers win, lean to the Browns on the spread, and probably overs.

  • David Njoku o44.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet)
  • Duke Johnson Jnr o21.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet)

NY Jets (+7) @ Chicago Bears: Total – 45.5

The Jets really struggled last week against a very good defense, this week won’t be too much different, the Bears are a very good unit despite the fact they’ve conceded a few points in the last couple of weeks. The Bears offense seems to be getting going as well, putting up over 30 in their last few weeks as well.

Trubisky and the Bears seem to be getting it together on offense, for me in a betting sense it’s still an issue though, they use a lot of players, a wide range of plays and a lot of guys catch the ball. It looks like Tarik Cohen is slowly taking over from Jordan Howard, although JoHo does still have a role on the ground. Trey Burton has been getting more of the ball recently, unsurprisingly all the passing stats look good last week in a tight one against the Pats, that won’t happen every week. The Jets are beaten up on offense leaving Sam Darnold with less and less to help him out. Isaiah Crowell is the last guy left on the ground (Trenton Cannon maybe catching passes) and the passing game isn’t much better, Rishard Matthews will probably be straight into the action, and you’ve got to think last week was the outlier for Jermaine Kearse with his goose egg. Chris Herndon the 4th seems to have a good redzone connection with Darnold, and is priced well at 6/1 on 365.

Bears win, cover the spread and go over the total.

Trubisky seems to have been unleashed on the ground in recent weeks and o26.5 yards has been eclipsed in each of the last 3 weeks. I like that on 365

  • Mitchell Trubisky o26.5 rush yards – 5/6 (365)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Total – 54

Oh no. The hype of the Bengals start has gone, it’s dead. Admittedly they lost to the Steelers who they always lose to, and the best offense in the AFC, so no real issue there, but statistically they’re not good, in the 20s or 30s for most measurables on offense (25th in pass yards, 28th in rush yards per game) and defense (29th in pass yards, 26th in rush yards allowed per game) . It’s not pretty at the moment, the lack of any kind of defense is a major worry and could really bite them in the ass in this game against a pretty free-scoring Buccs offense, I still haven’t figured out if the lack of pass rush is affecting the secondary, or whether the pass rush can’t get there because the secondary can’t keep players in check, either way the inability to stop the run or tight ends is affecting everything at the moment. The Bengals will have to score a lot to keep up with them, and frankly I’m even a little worried about that at the moment as well, the injuries seem to be taking their toll all over the field. The Buccs can’t defend, but can put up points. I’ve got a horrible feeling about this one, the one positive for my pessimism is that the Bengals are at home.

OJ Howard has over 50 rec. yards in every game he’s finished this year, you can get 4/5 on 44.5 on 365 or o51.5 at Evens depending on whether you want the odds or the yards. The Bengals are horrible vs Tight ends so I’ve got to think either will land.

My 500/1 bet for this week is Jacquizz Rodgers 2+ TDs, he’ll be the RB2 for the Buccs, at 11/1 anytime it’s a good bet, the 2+ prize is silly.

The Buccs with the upset, probably over the total.

  • CJ Uzomah anytime – 2/1 (Unibet) – I wouldn’t take the 5/4 or 6/5 at bigger books.
  • Chris Godwin anytime – 5/2 (Betfair)

Washington Redskins (-1) @ NY Giants: Total – 42

The Giants are blowing it all up! They’ve essentially said that any of the defense can go for a price, Apples rotten time in NY is over as he was traded to the Saints, and Damon Harrison will be snacking in the NFC North at the Lions from now on. The fans really want Eli Manning out the door but it looks like he’s going to be staying. Barkley is the one bright spot for them, the guy is phenomenal. This will probably be an old-skool battle between two average NFC East teams, a lot of grinding in the run game with Adrian Peterson the best player on the Redskins team this year.

Redskins on the road. And lean under

Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Detroit Lions: Total – 49.5

This could sneakily be a really good game, the Seahawks O-Line has been far better this year and it’s helped the run game, Chris Carson leading the way, although only 1 TD for him so far and David Moore seems to find himself open in the end zone for Wilson. The Lions, remarkably, seem to have a run game again as well with Kerryon Johnson smashing it (o64.5 on 365), add to that their very good pass game, and a fairly good defense, and they look pretty good now they’ve settled into Matt Patricia’s style. In fact these teams could be mirror images. I just like the Lions more.

Honestly, I’m actually really looking forward to watching this one! I’m not entirely sure how the game will go, but It should be a good battle, and maybe because the Lions are the Bengals of the NFC, I actually quite like watching them.

I am personally, of course, on David Moore again, he’s 5/1 on Skybet and 365.

Lions win.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: Total – 50

The Raiders currently have 3 1st round picks in the draft next year and seem to be looking for even more, they traded Amari Cooper to the Cowboys, and while I think he’s trash he was still one of the better players they had. The Colts haven’t really had the Luck they need despite their QB playing well. TY Hilton will be a week healthier, and the Raiders stink, so…

Colts win, and cover.

This game doesn’t deserve me going into more detail, but there’s opportunities there depending on where you think targets/rush attempts will go. The Raiders have a whole lot of opportunity there. Doug Martin will be “The workhorse back” for the Raiders. I’m not buying that, but the loss of Amari Cooper probably frees up a few targets for Bryant, Seth Roberts, Jared Cook… Martin is around 50 yards, lean over? Seth Roberts you can get at 29.5 on PP, again lean over, maybe? Jalen Richard 3.5 receptions? There’s quite a few options depending where you think the ball will go. My first thought was Martavis Bryant, that drugged up prick has cost me a few times this year, but his props are so low and his anytime price WAS so high I just couldn’t say no, and at 39.5 yards on PP I’m tempted to go on him and his overs again.

SF 49ers (+1) @ Arizona Cardinals: Total – 43

Christ. Who cares about this one?! Ok a little more. Matt Breida is on the “out” side of questionable meaning it’ll probably be Raheem (colonel) Mostert leading the backfield, he’s spritely, no he’s damn quick and has looked good. Alf Morris looks done so will probably be RB2 and Kyle Juszkzkckykzkyck is there too Juszczyk (I do know how to spell it really) – I’ve got to imagine the change of offensive coordinator will help David Johnson and therefore the offense, but that remains to be seen and therefore avoided for me.

SF Win.

Juice at 10/1 anytime is a teaser.

GB Packers (+9.5) @ LA Rams: Total – 57

Unsurprisingly, this is the biggest underdog an Aaron Rodgers led Packers team have been, and it’s probably deserved, I just don’t see how the Packers can slow down the Rams offense, they’ve topped 30 points in each game so far, saying that, I do think Rodgers will be able to keep pace to a certain extent.

Probably so many points scored, yet so little that jumps out at any real value. Todd Gurley 1/12 anytime maybe? …No Seriously. He’s priced at 1/12 at Paddypower. 1 to fucking 12. BET £12 TO WIN £1.

It looks like Cobb and Allison will be back which essentially means MVS and ESB are next to useless again, Valdez-Scantling has more chance of being involved as he looked good but I can’t see either getting much of the ball. The Rams are amazing, they should top 30 points again, but as for TD scoring, they’re all too short for me.

Rams win, lean to the Packers covering and overs on the totals.

  • Ty Montgomery o31.5 rush and rec. yards – 1/1 (PP)
  • Ty Montgomery anytime TD – 13/2 (Skybet)

I don’t love TyMo here, but as with a couple of other options, if they’re trailing. They will be, then they’ll use the pass catching back more, in theory TyMo, and the odds are very good.

New Orleans Saints (+1) @ Minnesota Vikings: Total – 53

The miracle in Minnesota happened the last time these two met in the playoffs last year, that play will be repeated a lot! This time around is the start of a very tough stretch for the Vikings, they’ll need to get something from this one. Adam Thielen has had 100 yards in each game so far, he’s been brilliant. The Vikings seem to have found a running game finally and will be hoping Dalvin Cook returns soon! The Saints are what they were last year, relying a little more on Ingram and Kamara in the running game, but capable of switching to the pass if needed. Trequan Smith one to look for anytime with Ted Ginn on IR.

Again, not much for me on the betting front tbh. TD scorers are short priced, even Trequan is 2/1, too short for my liking.

A tough one to call, but the Vikings home record is very good. – Vikings win.

  • BAL v CAR – Tribet – Any other result – (basically either team to win by 5 or fewer points – 15/8 (365) – 1 pt
  • Devontae Booker o20.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 3 pts – NB
  • David Njoku o44.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet)
  • Duke Johnson Jnr o21.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 5 points – NAP
  • Mitchell Trubisky o26.5 rush yards – 5/6 (365)
  • Ty Montgomery o31.5 rush and rec. yards – 1/1 (PP)
  • Ty Montgomery anytime TD – 13/2 (Skybet) – 1 pt
  • NAP and NB – (around 3/1) – 2pts

Ok, think I’m going for a blanket 2 pts bet unless stated above.

So total outlay on this – 18 points.

https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/62647022 – Draftkings league!

Another go at Colossus bet this week too! – Got 2/4 last week, really wasn’t far from 4/4 though and I’m actually buoyed by how close I was to getting them correct – https://www.colossusbets.com/syndicates/join/pool/17960/1000000000071624 and – https://www.colossusbets.com/syndicates/join/pool/17964/1000000000071628

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑