Week 9 – TNF – Oakland Raiders @ SF 49ers – #Raidernation v #GoNiners

Raiders (+2.5) @ 49ers: Total – 45

We’re in for a treat this Thursday night, 2 wins between these teams in 15 matches played this year, the sensible money is on a tie, right?

The Raiders stink, I will concede that maybe Gruden knows what he’s doing here. He’s on a 10 year guaranteed contract, he’s not going anywhere, so he’s blowing it all up and starting again from next draft with a lot of high picks, and probably the top 3 pick of their own. My worry for trying to predict anything in this game is that Gruden is indeed trying to throw the season to get a high enough pick to take Nick Bosa in the draft next year, we all know premium pass rushers are very tough to find, right? If that’s the case then there’s no reason he will try and win tonight thus strengthening their position at the bottom of the league. If not then they’re probably in with a good chance of winning tonight against a 49ers team with either a beaten up CJ Beathard or 3rd string Nick Mullens who looked out of his depth in pre-season and has some pretty awful stats in college.

I won’t go into a whole lot of depth here, well I’ll try not to anyway. The Raiders want to be run heavy, Doug Martin got a lot of carries last week for a fairly decent return, he’ll likely get the bulk of the carries this week with Jalen Richard used in the passing game if they’re having to play catch up. Martin 72 from 13 carries last week, and Richard got himself 8 receptions for 50 yards in a game they were trailing for most of. Now that Amari Cooper has left for browner pastures the passing game seemed to involve Brandon LaFell a lot more, he had over 90% of the snaps last week finishing with 39 yards and a TD. He’s set at 29.5 on PP for tonight which seems a decent bet. Seth Roberts was another beneficiary although is definitely a lot more hit and miss, just the 2 receptions for 42 and a touch last week, he’s set at 34.5 tonight. Jared Cook was expected to get a decent up tick, he had 4 catches, while Jordy Nelson who you’d expect to do well without Cooper there ended with a miserable 1 catch for 14 yards. It’s shit like that which makes it hard to predict anything that Gruden and the Raiders do.

The 49ers are well coached but have been decimated with injury this year, 8-8 would have been successful, the aim now seems to be get as high a pick as possible to help out Jimmy G when he’s back next year. In fact Shanahan has won a total of 1 game without Jimmy Garappolo starting for them. That’s not good.

So tonight it sounds as if CJ Beathard will be playing, apparently he’s genuinely 50/50 and struggling to grip the ball, not a good look, otherwise it will be Nick Mullens getting the start. That’s probably not a good thing for the niners, and would surely mean they lean even more towards the run than they already do, it would also make me lean towards an Oakland defensive touchdown, although I’m not sure they have any this season so it’ll be a long shot (I took 8/1 but it’s now 11/2 best priced)

Matt Breida will of course be playing through all of his injuries, he’s a machine… a mainly broken machine held together by duct tape, but a machine non-the-less, his commitment in a lost season is either admirable or stupid. Raheem Mostert looks like he’ll be a go as well despite also being injured. Breida got the vast majority of the carries last week unfortunately for anyone who had 7/1 on Mostert anytime, out touching him 16:2.

The main pass catcher was Kendrick Bourne with 7 for 71, I have no idea if that will carry on, in fact their passing game is a bit of a mess depending on who is starting at QB. I believe that Dante Pettis is back in the fold and he showed some promise earlier in the season, priced at 11/1 on Paddypower I’ve got to have a little bit of a nibble at the price. They actually only had 4 players catch a pass last week, Kittle was the other with multiple catches, I can pretty safely say he’ll be involved whomever is under centre. Marquise Goodwin is the big play threat, he did it again last week, 1 catch, 55 yards and a TD. He’s a truly impressive athlete, and was in fact once in the Olympics. – He’s one I like to root for after the shit he went through in his personal life last year and it’s good to see him scoring a few times this year.

Right. That’s probably far too much.


  • Brandon LaFell o29.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (PP) – 2 points
  • Dante Pettis anytime – 11/1 (PP) – 1 point

Pretty much all the TD scorers are actually fairly well priced, mainly because there’s so much difficulty picking who will catch any passes from anyone. I’m leaving them generally alone.

Good luck with whatever you’re on tonight!

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