TNF Week 8 – Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans – #FinsUp v #Texans

I am back after a weekend off, I would say time to recoup and reorganise after not such a great season so far, but that’s not exactly the truth, I was at the Titans v Chargers game at Wembley on Sunday so didn’t have the time to put the work in for the previews and betting tips, which ironically was probably a good thing really! – It was a bloody long day, the 615am train from Derby down to London, then the game and drinking at the Green Man afterwards until after the first games followed by more at the hotel until 11ish. But a fun time was had by all and we got a very good game to watch which came down to the final play of the day.

It was all funded by Cordarelle Patterson and Eric Swoope for me though who scored at 20s and 10s. Which was nice.

I’m feeling good about this weekend already, my write ups for the OLBG Experts blog are done, and ready to be expanded for the weekend, I’ve got an evening or two to myself this week as well, so the time and effort to get back into it, so without further ado, let’s go!


Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ Houston Texans: Total – 44.5

A small shower of shit to start week 8 in the NFL this week, and one that’s difficult to muster any excitement for in all fairness, however there’s a few markets I quite like tonight!

Brocktober continues! I can’t wait for Brockvember to hit, the happiest time of the year for us all for Miami, and believe it or not, he hasn’t actually been terrible, well not in the box score anyway, and I’ll be completely honest here (opening the kimono) I’m not exactly rushing to go through the all22 film on the Dolphins each week.

The Dolphins have been hit at WR, both through injury, Albert Wilson likely out for the season and Kenny Stills out for a while as well, and the general unhappiness of Devante Parker who’s agent has called out Gase this week obviously angling for a trade – The Dolphins said they wouldn’t be trading him. This week. So it looks like they’ll be making him play this week and if he wants a trade then what better way to showcase his “talents” and try and get a team interested in him, his line is set low, (o32.5 on PP). Brock seems to like Danny Amendola, he’s the slot guy, so a nice easy target for him and the Miami tight ends haven’t exactly been tearing up the league so for, so Amendola being set at 53.5 on PP at Evens is tempting to take the over. Jakeem Grant also stepped up his stats during last weeks games, the Dolphins have moved the ball generally on chunk trick plays, Wilson and Grant being the main beneficiaries, so I would imagine Grant will see a few plays this week as well, he’s actually set higher than Parker at 39.5, this is a tough one, it could take him one play to make that line, or he may get stuffed behind the line on an endaround and end up with -2 yards. He’s probably a better look at 7/2 anytime as he’s active in the return game as well over on William Hill.

The tight ends of which I speak… Mike Gesicki was highly drafted and a capable pass catchers, AJ Derby is, well, he’s still there, and Nick O’Leary caught a TD in the first game of Brocktober, he’s not quite the 25/1 he was in that game, but 7/1 anytime isn’t terrible. I’m sure one of them will top their yards line (Gesicki is 25.5, O’Leary 23.5 both at evens on PP) but I’m not sure which one frankly! Gesicki has topped it twice this season, and had 44 yards last week, O’Leary 49 and 23 yards with a TD in the 2 games he’s played.

Running back is a two headed monster of the infinity stone, Frank Gore (copyright the FFBallers) and Kenyan Drake. It’s especially frustrating for Drake dynasty owners who saw how well he ran at the end of last season and now look on in despair at him having to split carries week to week. I don’t know who I like here to be honest, Drake had some good yards of few carries last week, 12 ypc against the worst run defense in the league. The Texans are 10th in terms of rush defense, so not awful at all, he’s also used in the passing game although only had one real high stat game against the Bengals. Gore though has double-digit carries in his last 4 games. I was looking at Drake receiving yards at 28.5 on Skybet, but having looked into it a little more I think I’m off of it despite the opportunities in the passing game with the injuries they’ve got.

Their defense has been pretty good this year and have 7 INTs this season, Watson has thrown 1 in every game this year, other than the Jags last week.


The Texans have been a bit of an enigma for me this season, I really haven’t seen them do anything, frankly, yet they lead the AFC South with 4 straight wins. Last weeks was by far the most convincing, getting Blake Bortles benched while destroying the Jags.

Deshaun Watson has been struggling with a punctured lung and had to take a bus to their game last week, luckily he’s at home here and will have 10 days to rest up before their next match after this. It has, however restricted his rushing significantly, he’s still set high at 29.5 rushing yards on Skybet, I’ve taken u31.5 which was apparently enough to change the line, but 29.5 is still fine (rushed for 2 yards and 13 yards in the 2 games since that injury). The injury has hit his passing ability as well, although he has faced some decent passing defenses over the last fortnight in the Jags and Bills. He’s not thrown more than 2 TD passes in a game this season, and has an INT in each of them barring last week vs the Jags. I’ve also taken 8/11 on o0.5 INT in this game on Skybet.

Wide receiver isn’t great here either in all fairness, Will Fuller always scores TDs, but has been dealing with an injury, he’ll be good to go here, but is too short for me on the anytime scorers a best of 7/5. I’m not sure why I started with Fuller instead of Hopkins, Deandre ‘Nuk’ Hopkins is one of the best WRs in the league and he’s got there catching passes from some of the shittest QBs, he’s had 3 games over 100 yards already this season, scoring 4 in the process. I don’t think I’ll ever take the overs on 100 yards, but wouldn’t be too surprised to see him hit it. Fuller at 60.5 (5/6 on RedzoneSports) is pretty tempting with Keke Coutee out of the game, in fact I think I’ll go on that. Coutee had stolen a lot of targets and passes in recent weeks so I think it’s fair to say he should see maybe a few more targets. Also worth noting Xavian Howard, the highly rated cornerback for the Dolphins will likely be on Hopkins leaving second coverage for Fuller. WR3? By the look of it probably Tyler Ervin, he’s officially listed as a full back but got some snaps in the slot last week and it’s been reported that he should get some more action there this week, 1 for 19 yards at 13/2 isn’t exactly tempting though, maybe if he was 20/1 he’d be worth a bet. Tight ends? Akins and Thomas… the Jordans had a grand total of 1 target between them last week. Jesus wept.

Running back. My god I fucking hate Lamar Miller, if there was ever an average back, it’s him. 1 TD on the season, last week against the Jags, at least 14 carries in every game but 1 this season. He should see more of the ball this week as I expect the Texans to be in the lead, but the possibility of 10 carries for 10 yards is always there, amazingly he’s odds-on in places after his lone score of the season last week, I guess they think he’s on a run now? I hate Lamar Miller, he’s killed me so many times in Fantasy and gambling, including shafting my DFS team when I won $1,000 on DK, if I’d picked Ertz I’d have won my yearly wage in a night. Wanker. Oh, Alfred Blue will probably get a few carries too.

The Texans defense has rounded nicely into shape and I can see them causing issues for the Dolphins tonight, JJ Watt is back near his best. I’ll be honest, I didn’t think he’d look this good after years of back injuries, but he’s a phenom.


Summary

I can’t see anything other than the Texans extending that winning streak to 5 games, but I can’t and won’t take -7.5. I’d lean to the unders though as I can’t see the Dolphins score a huge amount of points, but I don’t think Gase is a bum and he may well figure something out.

I’m on –

  • Deshaun Watson u29.5 rushing yards (Skybet) – 5/6 (1.83) – 2 pts
  • Dehsaun Watson o0.5 INTs (Skybet) – 8/11 (1.73) – 2 pts
  • Devante Parker o32.5 rec. yards (PP) – 1/1 (2.0) – 1 pt
  • Danny Amendola o53.5 rec. yards (PP) – 1/1 (2.0) – 1 pt
  • Will Fuller o60.5 rec. yards (RedzoneSports) – 5/6 (1.83) – 2 points

8 points outlay.

Was meant to mention, it’s not one I’ll record on the P/L but getting anything over Evens on a team to score a first half field goal (Bet365 market) is probably always going to be a bet for me, Dolphins 6/4 (2.50) is one I’m sure I’ll go on later tonight


Reminder to set your ESPN Pigskin Pickem Picks

Set you NFL Survivor pools if you’re in one! 

Join our draftkings DFS league – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/62647022

And join www.redzonesports.bet to enter their free NFL Predictor each week for a chance to win a £500 free bet! 

Oh, and remember that if you’re in the UK, games kick off an hour earlier than usual!!! The Wembley game is 1330 – Redzone and the early games at 1700, late games at 2005 and 2025! and the primetime game, a cracker this week, Packers @ Rams at 1230! – That should be a good thing for alcoholics like myself.

And as always good luck with whatever you’re on!

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