Week 11 briefs and tips

Cowboys (+3) @ Falcons: Total – 48

I have no idea. I thought the Cowboys were dead after getting smashed by the Titans at home, then they go and run all over one of the best rush defenses in the league. They’re looking better than I expected, Amari Cooper seems to have added some kind of threat through the air which means teams can’t just pack the box vs Zeke any more. The Falcons were humbled by the Browns last week but are far better in the dome. Dak has 3 rushing TDs in his last 4 games, he’s a tasty looking 4/1 at Skybet and 365, and to be fair even the 1/2 on Zeke actually isn’t an awful price given how the Falcons do against pass catching RBs. Having not scored a TD in nearly a year Julio has scored in consecutive weeks now for the Falcons

Dak Prescott anytime TD – 4/1 (Skybet/365)

Tough start to proceedings – Cowboys.

Panthers (-4) @ Lions: Total – 51

The Lions were trash last week at the Bears and really should have lost much more convincingly, they’re a lot better at home though and the Panthers are poor on the road. The Panthers however are the far better team. Much like with Zeke above, 4/6 actually isn’t too bad for CmcC against a poor run defense and a team who seem to have given up, he scored a couple in the stuffing they got last week against the Steelers as well. It looks like Marvin Jones will be out leaving the Lions, realistically with only 1 WR, Kenny Golladay, I’d imagine TJ Jones and Theo Riddick will get some targets, they’re 5/1 (Betfred) and 7/2 (Lad/Coral)

Arrrrgh. Panthers. (probably lean to the Lions getting pts though)

Titans (+1.5) @ Colts: Total – 48

Battle for the South! The Titans have a very good divisional record and have stepped up in recent weeks, it’s probably another loser goes home match, more so for the Colts. The Titans got their own way against the Pats last week meaning that Derrick Henry was allowed 2 TDs after the defense had been worn down, they also got Corey Davis going. Finally. The Colts have been good all year, Andrew Luck looks back to health, they have TY Hilton back fit and Tight ends who can all score when needed. Ebron with 3 of the bloody things last week! – The Titans have a good record against tight ends, but it’s a bit false as they’ve not played any decent ones, so it’s not necassarily bad looking at the Colts TEs, Doyle – 4/1 (PP), Ebron 7/4 (Skybet) and Mo Alie-Cox 13/2 (PP), and on the other side of the ball Jonnu Smith has scored 2 games in a row and had more redzone targets, he’s 5/1 on Skybet. I may well go for BPTS, Smith and Ebron at 16/1. Massive odds there!

Jonnu Smith and Eric Ebron both to score – 14/1 

Home team. Colts.

Buccaneers (+1) @ Giants: Total – 51

Battle of the… Who really cares?! The Buccs somehow scored 3 points from 501 offensive yards last week. I would expect that to regress this week and they’ll get a few TDs. OJ Howard 5/2 (Skybet) is the one I’ll be looking for in scorer markets. The Giants had a win finally with Beckham scoring twice and Barkley again getting to 100 scrimmage yards. They’re still hamstrung by Eli but have the talent to win any game. Saquon 1/2 (Lad) didn’t score last week, he should correct that this week against a poor Buccs defense, Odell 1/1 (Lads) looked good last week too and the Buccs are poor vs the slot so you’ve probably got to look for Sterling Shepard 15/8 (Skybet) anytime for them.

I think again I’ve got to plump for the home team – Giants

Texans (-3) @ Redskins: Total – 42.5

Very tough one for me here, but I’m swayed towards the Texans defensive line vs the beaten up O-line of the Redskins. They dealt well last week by giving checkdown-king Alex Smith quick short passes and I’d imagine that will be the plan this week, but Watt and co. will surely get through a few times. In fact could be a lot of sacks all round. The tight end Jordan Thomas has 3 TDs in 2 games for the Texans he’s 13/2 on Skybet

Jordan Thomas anytime – 13/2 (Skybet)

I really don’t want to take a road favourite, but Texans.

Bengals (+5.5) @ Ravens: Total – 44

I’d be very surprised if my Bengals win this one, they’ve looked horrible on defense, have no AJ Green which screws the offense, and even Joe Mixon is questionable now with a knee injury. The season has gone sour very quickly for them. They did smash the Ravens at home though. The Ravens could be without Joe Flacco which hurts their pass catchers, but if Lamar Jackson starts over RGIII then I’m pretty sure he’ll have 50+ rush yards and a TD, the Bengals stink vs mobile QBs.

Alex Collins – 15/8 (Betfair)

Ravens – NAP

Steelers (-6) @ Jaguars: Total – 47.5

REEEEEVENNNNNNNNNGE – The Steelers have surely had this one marked all year after being humbled by Blake Bortles and crew last year? It’s the type of game they usually overlook and lose, but I can’t see it happening this time around. The odds are shit on anytime as they fully expect the Steelers to win comfortably. O’Shaughnessy was one I was looking at for the Jags, but 11/2 isn’t high enough for me to bet on him

Steelers.

Raiders (+5) @ Cardinals: Total – 40.5

The Raiders have quit. The Cards actually look quite good with their new OC realising that David Johnson is one of the best weapons in the league.

David Johnson to score, David Johnson 2 or more, David Johnson o40.5 rec. yards, Ricky Seals-Jones o29.5 rec. yards (yards on Skybet)

Ricky Seals-Jones o29.5 rec. yards

Cardinals – They cover easily too.

Broncos (+7) @ Chargers: Total – 46.5

The Chargers could be the best 2nd place team in history come the end of the year! They’ve been great this year and should have Joey Bosa back in a week or two now he’s finally back in training! Phillip Rivers is playing brilliantly, but because they’re in the same division as the Chiefs they’re being over looked. The Broncos should have Freeman back but they’re not a great team, the tight end Jeff Heuerman had 10 catches for 83 yards last week, his yards are at 26.5 this week on Skybet and he’s 7/2 anytime. The Chargers lost Denzel Perryman for the season, he’s their man run-stopper so it could be a good spot for Lindsay/Freeman for the Broncos.

Chargers win.

Eagles (+7) @ Saints: Total – 56

The Eagles lost Ronald Darby this week, that leaves them with almost entirely second string CBs. Against the best offense in the league with a WR who’s caught 90% of his passes and a QB who’s on record pass completion pace. That’s not a good combination. The Saints are amazing to watch with weapons all over the pitch, even watching them destroy the Bengals last week I wasn’t even annoyed. They were brilliant.

Saints win, I think they’ll cover but I won’t take it. Interestingly the spread has come down but the total has gone up.

Vikings (+2.5) @ Bears: Total – 45.5

Woooooooah, what a game to end Sunday night! Winner takes control of the NFC North. The Bears were clinical against the Lions last week but this is a whole new test. I have a soft spot for the Vikings, they’re good off a bye week and their defense has been improving each week especially now Everson Griffen is back. Dalvin Cook finally returned from injury and hit 22 MPH on his big run last week. What does worry me is Khalil Mack against one of the worst pass blockers in the league. He could blow up this game in the Bears favour. Anthony Miller stepped up majorly last week and will be one I look for in the player props again this week. 42.5 yards on Skybet looks a good one to go over

Anthony Miller o42.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet)

Another very tough one to call and I think I’m being stupid by picking the VIKINGS, but I have to.

Chiefs (+3.5) @ Rams: Total – 63.5

The Battle of Mexico City! Or maybe not – Oh yeah, highest total EVER. Haven’t confirmed it but it has to be, right?! What a mess from the Mexicans letting the field get in that much of a state. It’s great news for the Rams who get their home game back, but ironically it’s them having to do more travelling after being in Colorado this week to get adjusted to the Mexico City altitude… So the Chiefs have less travel and less mess to deal with. I also think they’re the better team to be honest, their offense could tear the Rams D apart. Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are just THAT good. The Rams will sorely miss Cooper Kupp, expect their tight ends to step up in his place with Josh Reynolds getting action as well, maybe a cheeky 2+ scorer bet on him if he’s around 100s (I doubt it now)

Chiefs for me.

  • Dak Prescott anytime TD – 4/1 (Skybet)
  • Jonnu Smith and Eric Ebron both to score – 14/1 (Skybet)
  • Jordan Thomas anytime – 13/2 (Skybet)
  • Alex Collins anytime – 15/8 (Betfair)
  • Ricky Seals-Jones o29.5 rec. yards (Skybet)
  • Jeff Heuerman o26.5 rec. yards (Skybet)
  • Yards double – 2.17/1
  • Anthony Miller o42.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet)

2 pts on each – 16 pts total for me today

I like both TD Treble boosts on Skybet as well…

I don’t mean to be posting everything from Skybet, they just happen to have the best odds and lines for this weekend.

I’ll be honest I’m feeling a bit lacklustre/hungover on a Sunday morning so might not be my best work but hopefully will continue the good couple of weeks I’ve had on here recently.

$5 Draftkings league

 

Good Luck with whatever you’re on tonight, getting to the crunch games now!

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