Packers (+3) @ Seahawks: Total – 49
This is pretty much a “loser shames their families honour” kind of match. The winner remains (theoretically) in the wild card race, the loser is pretty much done for the season.
It looks like the Packers finally realised what to do with Aaron Jones who most of the world knew was the best RB in Green Bay all season. He broke out last week with 100 yards and a touch in the first quarter. Will Mike McCarthy remember and play him all game tonight? I wouldn’t trust him on that, they’ve still got Jamaal Williams there and it would be typical weird coach logic is he thinks “He only had 3 touches on Sunday, he’s coming in fresh tonight” – I mean he shouldn’t but I don’t entirely trust it despite being an Aaron ‘The Welshman’ Jones truther. The Aaron Rodgers fella looks pretty good too despite having a giant knee brace on he’s been mobile enough to make plays to mainly rookie receivers, he has at least 1 TD pass in every game this season. It helps that he has Davante Adams (1/1) who has been brilliant over the past few seasons and has the full trust of his QB, much like Tyler Lockett (below) he’s scored in 7 of his 9 games this season and hit the 140 mark in a game this year as well – He’s far and away the main guy through the air. The others? Until last week Marques Valdes-scantling (5/2) had either 100 yards or a TD in every game he’d started, that ended with just the 44 yards last week, but really it’s been a very good debut season from the young wideout. Outside of these two you’re looking at the likes of Jimmy Graham (2/1) who frankly has been very disappointing with only 2 TDs on the season. Or the magnificently named Equaminous St. Brown (9/2) His yards are set low at 24.5 but it’s a risk either way as he’s probably the 4th look. The other 2 tight ends, Marcedes Lewis and Lance Kendricks got 3 catches between them last week but can’t be trusted for anything really.
The Seahawks want to run the ball and have done very well with it this year, with Carson out Rashaad Penny finally got some game time and topped 100 yards as well. Its messy tonight with Carson back though, I would expect Carson to get back into the main role, Mike Davis to be there for pass catching, which leaves Penny… Where? I do think the breakout last week will lead to them wanting to prove their first round pick wasn’t a bust, but It’s not something I want to try and predict to be honest. Wilson finally had some rush yards as well, 92 of them in fact despite the first 7 games having a max of 21, he’s had 41 and 92 in his last 2 games. The passing game is a little anaemic although Vannett has scored 2 in a row now. While the Seahawks have been run heavy all year, they lead the league in rush attempts, it should be worth noting that Russell Wilson has had at least 2 passing TDs in all but one games this season. He’s 4/5 to throw o1.5 passing TDs on Skybet tonight and I’ve gone pretty heavy on that at those odds. (10/19 on Redzone) He seems to have spread them between the big guys recently, David Moore (3/1) and Nick Vannett (7/2, the tight end) are names I’ve seen a lot in the box score in recent weeks. But the main man in the passing game this year seems to have been Tyler Lockett, he’s scored 7 TDs this year, and luckily for us, he hasn’t scored more than one in a game, so that’s 7 out of 9 games with a TD score, meaning that 7/4 (WillHill) for him seems pretty high in my opinion. It’s been to the detriment of Doug Baldwin that Lockett has done so well, he was the main man last year but missed the first month of the season with a knee and has struggled to get back into the groove but he’s typically been a second half of the season player so could easily pick it up when the weather turns cold.
Should be a very good game and one worth staying up for, as usual I’ve got to take the home team on a Thursday night, I think the Seahawks win, and cover, and a lean to the overs as well.
I have blanketed the 50/1+ “2 players to score 2+ TDs” on Paddypower with a quid on each, on these single game slots they seem to be paying off well this season. Just last week we had Ertz and Elliott at 80/1 on SNF and Breida and Beckham at 100/1 on MNF, so I think they’re worth a quid on each of them on the off chance.
- Russell Wilson o1.5 TD passes – 4/5 (Skybet) – 5 pts.
- Lockett and Adams both to score – 9/2 (Skybet) – 2 pts
- Nick Vannett anytime – 7/2 (WillHill) – 1 pt
I wouldn’t usually go for big bets on a Thursday night, but that Wilson one seems very low (if the price has gone then o3.5 passing TDs on 365 at 8/11 seems pretty good too)
As always –
REMEMBER THE ESPN PICKEM IF YOU’RE IN IT! – I somehow fucking forgot last week, what a prick.
Skybet have their usual “Bet £10 get a free £5 on RaBs”
JOIN THE DK LEAGUE IF YOU HAVEN’T ALREADY – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/64270054
Good Luck tonight, hopefully the NFL week will start well for us!