Week 11 MNF – KC Chiefs @ LA Rams – #ChiefsKingdom v #LaRams

A frustratingly rough week for me last night, a couple of winners, Dak at 4s and Alex Collins at 15/8 but the yard bets weren’t anywhere near and that pissed me off as much as anything else, I think I’m usually pretty good at judging who will get the ball in games, and thought Heuerman and especially RSJ were solid bets but when the QB throws for 136 in a game it makes it tough for any player to get 30 yards, especially when half of them come from 1 play and Anthony Miller got a TD but only 25 yards, of the 165 thrown by Trubisky, again a bit annoying. On the plus side, only a few pts down because the 2 winning bets were good odds.

Anyway, on to the Monday night megagame!


Chiefs (+3) @ Rams: Total – 63

The Chiefs.

The Battle of Mexico City! Or maybe not – Oh yeah, highest total EVER. Haven’t confirmed it but it has to be, right?! What a mess from the Mexicans letting the field get in that much of a state. It’s great news for the Rams who get their home game back, but ironically it’s them having to do more travelling after being in Colorado this week to get adjusted to the Mexico City altitude… So the Chiefs have less travel and less mess to deal with.

Not a whole lot more to say on Paddy Homes this year really, he’s been amazing, has already thrown for a record number of TDs in a Chiefs season and looks unstoppable frankly, he’s 4/1 to score a rushing TD, he’s scored a couple this year so far. That bet of him to throw for o4,000 yards looks like an easy winner at the moment!

There’s the obvious big 3 to look at for the Chiefs, Hunt (3/5), Hill (10/11), Kelce (10/11) around evens for Hill is actually pretty good, I mentioned earlier in the season about his weird home/away splits, he seems to do much better on the road for some reason, 6 of his 9 TDs this year have come on the road to further that trend into this season, you can get 11/2 for him to score 2 or more on Skybet as well.. for the record Kareem Hunt 2+ is a frankly hideous 3/1 to score twice tonight on PP. So that’s the big boys, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them all score tbh, that’s how high I am on the Chiefs at the moment. They even got Spencer Ware (6/1 PP) his TD the other week, I think that’s now 12 different players who’ve scored for them this season, I’m not sure he’ll get a lot of play this week in a probable high scoring, close affair. The backup tight end Demetrius Harris has scored a couple this year, 2 from 5 receptions isn’t exactly one to go chasing but if you want someone at higher odds he’s 10/1 on Skybet. – So that’s about it for the anytimes, a few others like the Full back Sherman at huge odds and Demarcus Robinson. I guess if you expect 4 or 5 TDs a team they’ll be in with a chance. – Just realised I haven’t mentioned Sammy Watkins at all, he’s probably going to be inactive tonight, if he is a go I wouldn’t trust his health anyway. Chris Conley (5/1) will get a catch or two though, maybe a TD, he’s got 2 but they were week 2 and 3.

The yardage props are very tough to get right tonight obviously the books expect a point-fest which means all the lines are set very high, I guess that means the value is in the unders, but would you risk unders in a game like this? Kareem Hunt o34.5 receiving yards ((1/1 on PP) or 30.5 at 5/6 on Skybet) is intriguing, he’s topped those lines in 4 of his last 5 games and went way over in the last game they were trailing against the Patriots. Tyreek longest pass received is set at 35.5 (10/11 on 365), if you think he’ll be against Marcus Peters for a lot of the night then that’s probably a decent look for the over as well. His longest catch in all but 2 games this year has been over that line.


The Rams.

The Rams only have one defeat on the year against the Saints who are blowing everyone away at the moment, as I said above they’ve had to change their plans a little this week as they were in Colorado adapting to playing at altitude, and a lot of them, and their staff were moved because of the fires in California. In fact they’ve invited a lot of the first responders to this unexpected home game which is a nice touch.

Jared Goff isn’t really mentioned in the MVP race as a lot of people think his success is just down to scheme. It definitely helps when every pass you throw is to a wide open receiver, but some of the throws he’s made this year have been beautiful, one in particular I remember from the Vikings game to Cooper Kupp was amazing. He’s actually just 16 yards behind Mahomes on the season. Can’t touch his completions, or his yards at the line they’ve been set at.

The Rams will sorely miss Cooper Kupp in the passing game, he’s the most targeted receiver in the red zone, and he played the slot exceptionally well, I would expect Robert Woods (11/10 Ladbrokes) to come inside to fill that position with Josh Reynolds (14/5 Betfred) going outside with Brandin Cooks (1/1 Ladbrokes) keeping his spot as the main downfield threat. This should be good for Woods receptions which are set at 5.5 on most bookies, 1/1 on PP is the best odds on it. It’s actually the exact line it should be set at, he’s usually around 5. I expect him to go over that but the stats don’t back it up so I’ll give it a miss. He usually tops 70 yards, but the best line tonight looks to be 79.5 at Skybet. Brandin Cooks has been very good for them and helps the entire offense with the role he plays, he’s had 4 game this year over 100 yards and led the team with 10 catches last week, surprisingly he’s only scored 3 teams this year and while the Chiefs defense hasn’t been good on the whole it has improved a lot recently. I want to lean under on Cooks yards, 86.5 – 89.5 depending where you look, but I just can’t pull the trigger on it. Josh Reynolds is the most interesting at the price, his odds where a lot better on Friday night to now, he’s as low as 6/4 to score anytime in places, his yards set at 34.5 on PP, his big game of the year (obviously when Kupp was out last time) he finished with 42 yards from 3 catches with 2 TDs. So it’s fair to say it’s not reliable but with the lack of value around maybe worth a look. (It doesn’t help anyone but I got 80/1 for 2 or more on Friday, best now is 18/1) – Interestingly they activated Pharoah Cooper from the IR today, he was a pro-bowl punt returner last year but no-one has him priced up at the moment (I have asked)

Their tight ends stepped up after Kupp went out last week, both of them finishing the game with a touchdown. Is that something I want to chase? Well, again they’re the only slight bit of value, and even then they’ve been backed so really aren’t much good. Tyler Higbee 9/2 and Gerald Everett 10/3 aren’t exactly prices you want one guys who’ve scored 2 and 1 TD from 11 and 15 catches respectively. Having said that, I think there’s a good chance one of them steps up tonight and 18.5 yards for Gerald Everett is interesting on PP. I would imagine they’ll both be involved more and the chat pre-season was that they wanted to get Everett involved over Higbee.

Todd Gurley. He’s good. He’s best priced at a lovely 1/4…. and as low as… 1/12 on PP. Ridiculous. I mean he’s scored every game so far, 17 in total, so I understand it. But my god. I don’t think there’s much else to say on him tbh, scored every game, equally adept on the ground and through the air. He’s awesome. I prefer Kamara still, but Gurley is damn good.


Summary –

I think the Chiefs win. I think they’re the better team, have been improving on defense and have a very good pass rush, Dee Ford and Justin Houston put a lot on the Cards last week, that’ll be a hell of a matchup vs Andrew Whitworth and crew on the Rams offensive line. The Chiefs secondary has been improving as well whilst the Rams secondary, Marcus Peters especially has been majorly exposed in recent weeks and I think the Chiefs will exploit that.

Chiefs to score every qtr isn’t horrible at 13/8 they let me down against the bloody Cardinals last week though!

Bets…

  • Tyreek Hill longest reception o35.5 yards – 10/11 (365)
  • Kareem Hunt o34.5 receiving yards – 1/1 (PP)
  • Patrick Mahomes o2.5 passing TDs – 20/23 – (RZBet) 
  • Gerald Everett o18.5 receiving yards – 1/1 (PP)

2 points on each

So no big odds, there’s not a whole lot of value with it being perceived so high scoring. Even both players to score markets are horrible.

If you’ve not got a RZBet account you can get one – HERE – Actually helps me a little if you signup through that link, they’ve got the Predictor comp with the chance to win £500 freebet each week as one of my followers has done already this season!

But if you don’t wanna do that then you can take Total TD passes o4.5 at 4/6 instead of the Mahomes one above.

Obviously it’s Thanksgiving this week so I’ll do my best to get something out for that, I’d imagine we’ll get props filtering through tomorrow evening/Wednesday day. – Kerryon Johnson is a big loss for the Lions in the first match (1730 UK time), I’d take the Bears -4 there, Redskins are without Alex Smith who snapped his tib and fib yesterday, but Colt McCoy looked all right from what I saw, I’d lean to taking the +7 with them and the Falcons +13 ?! Against the Saints? Tbf the Saints will probably cover and it should top 59 easily.

 

Good luck and enjoy the game tonight, should be a cracker!

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