Bears (-3) @ Lions: Total – 43.5
The Bears were incredibly impressive on Sunday night, essentially shutting down the Vikings for 3 quarters of that game, and they’ve only allowed a couple of rushing TDs all season. That’s fine for the Lions as they’re without their main rushing threat anyway so expecting a lot of passing from them. The Bears offense is brilliantly coached and allowed Trubisky easy throws to open receivers, he has a shoulder injury which is a worry and you’d expect it would limit his rushing attempts. These 2 teams played 11 days ago and the Bears won comfortably at home but the Lions didn’t have Darius Slay, he’ll be back and I’d imagine will deal with Allen Robinson so look for Anthony Miller to have another good game in the slot. The fact that the Bears are on the road for the early start after the late game on Sunday is the one worry for me, but defense travels, I don’t expect them to get 10 sacks again but they should deal with the Lions.
So a lot of this is now a bit wrong, Trubisky is missing tonight with a shoulder injury, strangely the line hasn’t changed so I guess the books consider him to be a system QB and Chase Daniel actually looked pretty good in pre-season and knows the Nagy system, so I pretty much agree with them tbh although it does remove the threat of the run. It does however make it difficult to take any player props on that side of the ball and the Lions offense being shit takes away most options there as well.
I will probably be on both defenses to score TD, the Bears at 4/1 by themselves looks good, and both is 33/1 on PP. If you think the sacks will repeat you can get o5.5 sacks at 10/11 on Bet365. I know it’s stupid but I still lean toward Anthony Miller o37.5 yards on PP as well. It’s very risky with a backup QB though. Right, Michael Roberts at 11/1 on Will Hill will likely be my only bet for this one. Again it’s risky, but at the odds the tight end for the Lions gets a lot of redzone looks and they don’t have much else to go for frankly.
Bears, it’s more a lean due to the Trubisky injury worry and a the short rest for them though. – BEARS
Michael Roberts anytime TD – 11/1 (WillHill) – 1 pt
Redskins (+7) @ Cowboys: Total – 40.5
Alex Smith is done for the season and possibly his career due to the terrible injury on Sunday so Daniel McCoy (also known as Colt) takes over but that’s not actually a huge downgrade given the way they’ve been playing, he’s mobile and looked pretty good when he took over last week, they’ll probably use Adrian Peterson a lot and rely on the defense to stop Zeke and the Cowboys. I nailed it on them last week, they’ve reverted to type: A solid defense, Zeke running a lot and allowing only a few drives per day for the opposition, Cooper joining them hasn’t hugely helped the passing game but does give it a little respect meaning more running room for Zeke, they’re also very solid on defense, Leighton Vander Esch a strong DROTY candidate. This isn’t going to be a thriller.
There’s a lot of big prices on BPTS with regards to the Redskins players, 100/1 on Vernon Davis and Maurice Harris both to score? I know it’s unlikely given the Dallas D and the Redskins offense, but still. I mentioned Trey Quinn on Twitter he had 50 odd yards in the Slot for the Skins last week, he’s 9/1 on Betway, was 14s earlier in the day. I think I’ll just stick to Dak anytime again.
I think this will be a shortened game in turns of drives, both teams are likely to try and run the ball a lot, 365 have the line at 230 total rushing yards at 10/11 on either side.
Dak Prescott anytime – 7/2 – 2pts
Cowboys, lean to Redskins on the spread and honestly, unders. – COWBOYS
Falcons (+13) @ Saints: Total – 59
My god the Saints are good, and the ruthlessness of going for it on 4th and 7 when up by 30 points was amazing. I know the yanks don’t understand it and there was a lot of moaning on twitter about it, but it was great. They’ve already had as many 40 pt games in a season as any team in history, and against a weak Falcon secondary it’s not unlikely this weekend. I think Brees should win MVP, he’s only thrown 1 INT all season, it helps that Michael Thomas catches everything thrown towards him, they’ve got Ingram back firing for that 1-2 punch in the run game too. Oh, Kamara is amazing, then add in Tre’quan Smith who has the trust of his QB already and they’re rather good. The Falcons can put up points too and will need to, but even the Saints defense has been a top 10 unit recently so it won’t be easy. After nearly a year without a TD, Julio “touchdown” Jones now has 3 in 3 games, they’ll need to do a lot through the air as the Saints run D is one of the best in the league, but are definitely capable of doing that. Sanu, Ridley and Hooper will be the most probable scorers.
Not a huge amount of value in this as they think it’ll be a high scoring one, and probably will. I’d lean to either of the Hill brothers, Taysom and Josh at fair odds, 11/2 and 17/2 respectively or Benjamin Watson at 4s.
I do however like Drew Brees to throw a TD in each half at 10/11 on PP – 4 pts. On featured #WhatoddsPaddy markets – If there’s a “both QBs to throw a TD in each half should be worth a look. – Credit to @B3tweenThePosts on twitter for that
Taysom Hill anytime – 11/2, Josh Hill anytime – 17/2 – both Skybet – 1 pt each
Saints win, obviously. I think they’ll probably cover but won’t touch that spread, and a lean to the overs as well. – SAINTS
Good Luck to all, and enjoy pretending to be American for the day, I’m off to the pub for 300 birds worths of chicken wings.
Happy Thanksgiving Y’ALL
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