Week 12 briefs and tips

Thanksgiving went pretty well! – Well, started with Michael Roberts getting hit in the helmet near the end of the game which could easily have been a TD. He’s worth keeping an eye on as he’s had a lot of their red zone targets this season even when Tate was there, the second game cleared the day pretty much though with Dak Prescott at 7/2, I mentioned in the write up about Vernon Davis and others, I got 16/1 on VD and Cooper to score which some others might have hit. I also started myself a new weekly segment “Take BetVictors money” on twitter by suggesting Trey Quinn at 12/1 which duly landed. BUT Thanks to B3tweentheposts, the 4 point bet on Drew Brees to throw a TD in each half landed easily as well, in fact he also tipped 13/2 on Brees 2 in each half which landed as well, that game was a little frustrating as I took a couple of outsiders, but apparently my outsiders weren’t outsider enough for Sean Payton and the Saints as the mighty foursome of Keith Kirkwood, Austin Carr, Dan Arnold and of course, TommyLee Lewis all scored for them. Sean Payton cares not for your fantasy team or your betting balance. Either way, ended the night nicely in profit from suggested, and not so obviously suggested bets.


Oakland Raiders (10.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: Total – 42.5

Lamar Jackson starts for the Ravens having run for over 100 yards last week, his line will be interesting this week (70.5 from 365, I’d guess you’d lean over?) I actually think his passing yards are set fairly low at 164, he wasn’t horrible last week and if the game goes as expected they should be winning and be able to give the kid a chance to chuck it regardless of the result, the Gus Bus (11/8) was obviously the other price I was waiting for, and it’s shocking. I’d be tempted with Alex Collins (9/4) actually as Harbaugh didn’t exactly give Gus his full confidence. Marcell Ateman is one to look for at a big price for the Raiders (10/1 on 365) not really big enough against this defense, but he did lead them in yards last week, side note, Mandrews is tempting at 5/1 (PP) but would require Jackson to throw for a TD. Doug Martin has  been limited in practise all week after being taken out of the second half last week, I worry because I don’t trust Gruden at all, but 51.5 combined yards (PP) for Jalen Richard is of note if Martin remains limited or doesn’t go.
RAVENS win easily, but as always I won’t touch double digits.
Marcell Ateman – 10/1 (365) – 1 point

Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: Total – 51

Both 5-5, One should be, one definitely shouldn’t. Tannehill is back for Miami, a half fit Tannehill is obviously more enticing than a fully fit Brock Lobster. The Colts are brilliant at the moment, Luck has won comeback of the year already, surely?! It’s amazing what you can do with a solid offensive line isn’t it. – COLTS win and cover.
My boy Mo Alie-Cox is down at 7s now after being a lot bigger in previous weeks, he’s got a knock so I’ll give him a miss, I’m tempted by the Miami TEs tbh, O’Leary at 14s and Derby at 20s. But this Miami team isn’t for trusting. In fact…
Eric Ebron – 9/4 (Skybet) – 2 points: – (1/3 for spread treble)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: Total – 37

The Bills are the only team in the AFC East on a winning streak and that CONTINUES this week! – BILLS
Josh Allen anytime? 10/1 on 365 – 1 pt

Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Carolina Panthers: Total – 46.5

The Panthers have won 10 in a row at home, the Seahawks are travelling east for an early start, they’re the running-est (that’s a word in america, right?) team in the league, the Panthers the 6th best rush defense. It will be a tight one, probably low scoring but I’m gonna take the home team – PANTHERS, and lean to the unders
I was going to suggest Jarius Wright but the Seahawks haven’t given up a TD to the slot all season so even at 7/1 I’m put off him. I think McCaffery will score, but he’s too short for me to take, 2/1 on Cam? Nah… but 8/1 on Russell Wilson? Seems too high for me.
Ed Dickson REVENGE GAME – 9/1 on Skybet – 1pt, Russell Wilson anytime – 8/1 (365) – 1pt

New England Patriots @ NY Jets

Tom Brady questionable!?!! – Even with Brian Hoyer the Pats should win this one although I do think it will be closer than expected, the Jets have covered the spread at home the last 5 times. PATRIOTS
When are you ever going to get 9/4 on Gronk?! – He should be fit after the bye and a few weeks rest previous to that
Rob Gronkowski anytime – 9/4 (Skybet) – 2 points

NY Giants (+5.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Total – 47

The Giants have the better starting roster in my eyes, Barkley, Beckham and Shepard should do well against this beaten up Eagles secondary, but the Eagles should be able to put up points as well, I actually think the GIANTS win on the road, and I definitely like them to cover the spread if not – GIANTS
Odell Beckham Jnr. – 11/10 (365) – NAP – 5 points: – (2/3 on spread treble) 
This is probably a good one for the “both players to score 2+” on PP, can see a lot of points here

San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Total – 54

The 49ers are 1-4 on the road, the Buccs are starting Winston, so expect Fitzmagic to win the game for them in the second half – BUCCS
The obvious bet here is Cameron Brate at 15/8, with OJ Howard out he’s the only tight end and Jameis likes his tight ends, just ask any Uber driver. But if you want a big stupid bet then with Marquise Goodwin seemingly out tonight, Richie James is 7/1 on William Hill and Dante Pettis is 9/2 on 365.

Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Total – 46.5

The Hue Jackson grudge battle. Will the Browns be more motivated to put one on Hue, or will be inspire the Bengals to beat his former team. The Bengals own this series in recent years and looked slightly better on defense last week but Chubb should still top 100 yards. A tough one, and as a pessimist I automatically go against us at home. It’s a coin toss – BENGALS
So it looks like AJ Green won’t be playing, nor will one of their top 2 CBs. Of course, because that’s the Bengals season, a massive heap of shit piled upon shit. Injuries everywhere every week, every game. Fucks sake.
I chose the Bengals at home originally but without AJ Green, sod it, we’re fucked – BROWNS
Nick Chubb will score – 10/11 (PP) – 2 points

Arizona Cardinals (+13) @ Los Angeles Chargers: Total – 44

The Cardinals should cover this spread, they’ve got a solid defense and are getting DJ going finally. The Chargers haven’t really smashed anyone other than the Browns so I can’t see them running away with it – CHARGERS, not covering the spread – NAP
Keep an eye on Melvin Gordons availability, there’s rumours he’ll be rested for this one, if so then look at Ekeler yards, his TD price is shit at 1/1. Without Denzel Perryman the Chargers run D isn’t the same, so I’ll happily take odds against on DJ
David Johnson anytime TD – 11/10 (365) – NB – 3 points: – (3/3 on spread treble)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Denver Broncos: Total – 47

IT’S A TRAP! – The Steelers always have a stumble on the road, maybe it was last week and they bumbled their way through it somehow, but Denver isn’t an easy place to go. Saying that the Steelers are playing well in general and should have too much for the Broncos – STEELERS, and they cover.
Vance McDonald – 11/4 (Skybet) – 1pt

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: Total – 48

Loser goes home. The Packers are 0-5 on the road this year and for that main reason I’ll take the Vikings to keep their slight hopes of beating the Bears to the division – VIKINGS
Robert Tonyan scored last week after Jimmy Graham went out, Graham is going to play through a knee injury and a broken thumb, how long he lasts out there is anyone’s guess, so if you think Tonyan could repeat he’s 20/1 on Skybet.

Summary

  • Marcell Ateman – 10/1 (365) – 1 point
  • Eric Ebron – 9/4 (Skybet) – 2 points
  • Josh Allen – 10/1 (365) – 1 pt
  • Ed Dickson – 9/1 (Skybet) – 1pt
  • Russell Wilson – 8/1 (365) – 1pt
  • Rob Gronkowski – 9/4 (Skybet) – 2 points
  • Odell Beckham Jnr. – 11/10 (365) – NAP – 5 points
  • Nick Chubb – 10/11 (PP) – 2 points
  • David Johnson – 11/10 (365) – NB – 3 points
  • Vance McDonald – 11/4 (Skybet) – 1pt
  • NAP/NB double – 3.41/1 – 2pts
  • Alt. Point spread treble – Colts -7, Giants +7, Cardinals +14 – 4/1 (365) – 2pts

So, a bigger weekend than I expected in all honesty, not a lot of player props that jumped out at me so more TDs and a spread treble there as well.

23 point outlay.

Good luck if you follow along

Remember the DraftKings league – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/64795586

And the Colossus bet syndicates, a slight change of tactic on them this week, a few more selections for lesser stakes, still £500 and £25,000 to be won on the Pick 4 and Pick 7 respectively though – Pick 4 and the Pick 7

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