New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Dallas Cowboys: Total – 51.5
Just over a touchdown? Hmmm, the Cowboys defense is good, they’ll try and slow down the game, but I’ve got to think the Saints win by more than a touchdown? I’m convinced they were essentially resting their guys in game and Sean Payton was just showing off by giving TDs to randoms; This week if they have to come out and play I’m sure they will and being in primetime I think they’ll show up.
Drew Bress should get the MVP nod this year, he’s beating his own completion percentage record and it’s a fairly narrative based award, Mahomes has another 15 years to win the award, this is one of Brees’ final years, so give it to him. We won on him to score a TD in each half last time out, and even score 2 in each half won that week. It’s not as easy as it was in that game against the Falcons on thanksgiving. He’s 10/11 again to throw a TD pass in each half this week, and I think he should be able to again. 8/1 for him to throw 2 in each half, not too sure on that one to be honest, but it’s do-able the way they’ve been playing recently.
They had a weird “Make a wish foundation” night last time, giving TDs to Tommylee Lewis (15/2) (promoted from the practise squad that afternoon) Dan Arnold (3/1) (1980s sitcom Dad) Keith Kirkwood (6/1)(rookie) and Austin Carr (15/2) (Derek and Davids brother) – I can’t see those guys getting too many targets this week against a solid Dallas defense. I’d say you’re better off sticking with the main guys. Michael Thomas (5/6 Skybet) has caught 86 of 97 passes thrown his way this year for over 1,000 yard and 8 TDs. He had a quiet game last week so I expect him to bounce back this week. Tre’Quan Smith (23/10 RZBet) was carrying a knock but will play this week, he’s got the trust of Brees so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him getting the ball a lot. I remain convinced that Taysom Hill (15/2) will score at some point with the way he’s been used, but I’m not sure this is the game for him. Ben Watson at 11/2 isn’t a bad look either tbh, he’s had 9 redzone targets this year, only catching 6, and only scoring 3 from those targets. Week 10 were his last RZ targets though. They run a few tight ends which makes things even more difficult to judge, Watson, Josh Hill (7/1) and Dan Arnold.
Kamara (8/13) and Ingram (6/4) are rather good players, Kamara is one of the most fun players in the game to watch, again they had down weeks (compared to usual) in last weeks game so I figure they’ll jump back to form in this one although the Cowboys run defense is pretty good, it could mean a lot of receiving yards from Kamara, 38.5 yards on Skybet at 5/6 (1.83) is the lowest line if you want to go for the overs, 49.5 on 365 if you fancy unders.
The Cowboys have done well since Cooper joined, I’m shocked to be honest that they’ve changed so much since he joined, it’s opened up a lot for them, especially Dak and Zeke in the run game, Dak has 5 TDs in 6 games and Zeke has at least 100 yards rushing and a TD in the last 3.
Dak Prescott threw the ball… for nearly… 3 HUNDRED YARDS in the last game, my god, what it happening to the world!?! Well, most of them were to Amari Cooper who blew up the Redskins secondary a couple of times, but still, it was one of the best performances he’s had since his rookie year. He’s still yet to throw more than 2 TDs in a game this season, but has rushed for one in 5 of his last 6 games (I believe I had him to score 5+ at 7/4 as one of my pre-season bets) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score again tonight, you can get 7/2 on Bet365 and BetVictor (I actually made it my “Take Victors Money” bet on Twitter – 2/2 on them at 11/2 and 5/1 so far)
Zeke (4/7) is the main man, he always is, when they manage to get the game plan they want he and the defense control games and they usually get the wins, he’s going up against a top 3 run defense tonight though and the Saints will slow him down. As with Kamara it could mean more receiving yards for him, 34.5 on 365 at 4/5 (1.80) if you fancy him to top his line, he’s actually only beaten that line in 3 games this season, so that stats suggest it’s not the best choice.
The passing game has come to life since the signing of Amari Cooper, which sent them on this hot streak, he blew up last week with 180 yards and 2 TDs from just 8 receptions and showed the reason why Jerry Jones decided to give up their 1st rounder next year. I still think it was too expensive but I’ve been proved wrong on how well he’d do and how the franchise would change with him there. Michael Gallup (9/2) is a tough one to catch on a good day, he’s only had 8 receptions in the 4 games he’s played with Cooper, and no TDs in that space. In fact their whole passing game is tough to figure out, using last week as a snapshot, they had 9 players catch a pass, 8 for Cooper, 5 for Zeke, then a mix of everyone else. Allen Hurns (12/1) and Cole Beasley (7/2) are MEANT to be the WR2 and 3 but they’re just not very good frankly, Beasley has one good game this season, Hurns not even that. Their Tight end position is a mess too with Blake Jarwin seemingly the best choice there, but Dalton Schultz and even possibly the beast, Rico Gathers. All 14/1 for those guys. Jarwin probably the one to look at if you want a stupid one.
The Dallas pass rush has been great this year, and they face probably the best offensive line in the league here, Demarcus Lawrence has been particularly chippy in the build up to this so it will be an interesting matchup in the trenches when the Saints have the ball.
It will be a test for the Saints, on the road on a Thursday. But the Saints are the best team in the league this year, and one of the best run defenses so they’ll slow Zeke down – SAINTS win and if they cover they’ll be the first team to cover 10 spreads in a row.
- Drew Brees to throw a TD pass in each half – 10/11 (1.91) – PP – 3 points
- Dak Prescott anytime TD – 7/2 (365/Victor) – 2 pts.
- Alvin Kamara o38.5 receiving yards – 5/6 – 3 pts
I’ve had a couple of stupid punts on the RaBs on Sky, they’ve got their usual Bet £10 and get a free £5 on this game – My free fiver has been wasted on Hurns, Taysom and Kamara all to score at 175/1…
As always, remember the Pigskin Pickem if you’re still in it, and get signed up to the Draftkings league – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/65309556
And go have a read of the OLBG Experts blog, It’s basically the writeups I use on here, but you get to have a read before Sunday. In fairness I do expand them on Sundays but it’s a great read as you’ve got another 5 opinions on there which either support or go against my opinions, it’s always a good read, and I’ve been smashing it on the straight ups on there at 66% on the season.
Good Luck with whatever you’re on tonight!
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