Week 13 briefs and tips

Safe to say Thursday night didn’t go as planned, I’m not sure there would have been a lot of people with winning bets on a 13-10 Cowboys win over the apparently fallible Saints.


Buffalo Bills (+5  3.5) @ Miami Dolphins: Total – 40

I loved watching Josh Allen and the Bills take down Jalen Ramsey and the Jaguars this weekend, it’s always fun seeing gobby twats get their comeuppance. This should actually be a pretty close one, I like the running ability that Allen gives to the Bills and they seem to have found a speedster in Robert Foster (6/1). The Dolphins are far better at home though and Tannehill another week fitter. He’s still not really got any weapons, but homefield gives them a big edge and coming from the frozen tundra of Buffalo down to the still warm and humid Miami gives the home team the edge. MIAMI win a surprisingly high scoring close one. Lean to the overs.

Looks like money has come in on the Bills, only 3.5 now down from 5 earlier in the week. Josh Allen would probably be the guy to aim for again but only 7/2 (PP) this week down from 10s last. Leonte Carroo is an interesting one for Miami as they don’t really have any options in the passing game, but it’s a solid Bills D, so I’ll probably give it all a miss.

Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Total – 44.5

My god it sucks being a Bengals fan. This weekends performance was one of the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Utter ineptness, they couldn’t defend, they couldn’t move the ball, couldn’t catch and are poorly coached. The season is done. Jeff Driskel comes in for Andy Dalton who joins half the roster on IR, he at least adds some mobility and looked pretty good against the Browns. I can’t see AJ Green playing, because frankly there’s no point risking him, may as well let him rest. Phillip Lindsay will run all over the Bengals and should even get spelled by Royce Freeman, hell, even Courtland Sutton might be able to catch a ball against these bums, Denver are somehow still in the playoff hunt and they’ll win by at least 10. – DENVER

The Broncos have become bigger faves as the week has gone on and the total has risen 2 pts to 44.5 since earlier in the week. My opinion hasn’t changed greatly, AJ being back obviously helps the Bengals a lot but the defense will still stink. 2 at better prices for the Bronocs – Royce Freeman (WillHill) and Courtland Sutton (PP), both 9/4. Bengals can’t defend the run. Well frankly they can’t defend, but Lindsay at odds-on isn’t one for me. For the Bengals, John Ross has quietly had a few red zone TDs utilising his speed off the line to get open and 7/2 (PP) isn’t bad for him – 4 in his last 5 games.

John Ross and Sutton to score – 11/1, John Ross and Freeman to score – 12/1 (1 pt on each) 

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ NY Giants: Total – 44

Another line I’m slightly shocked by, the Giants were cruising at half time then seemed to realise they’d prefer a better draft pick and threw the game away last week. It hurt my pocket considerably and while I try and remove emotion when doing previews, screw them. I hope they lose the rest of the season. It doesn’t matter who’s at QB for the Bears although looks like it’s Daniel again, they’re both distinctly average but the coaching is so good it doesn’t really matter. BEARS win and cover, mainly because. Fuck the Giants after last week.

Rhett Ellison (5/1 Ladbrokes) and Adam Shaheen (11/1 Skybet) were my likes in this week, Shaheen was 20s on Friday night, he’s a giant and their second TE, it’s likely he’d have been training with Daniel for most of the season and secured a 2pt conversion in the Thanksgiving game so he’s used in the red zone. Ellison is in for Engram and got wide open in the end zone at least once last week, he had a decent amount of yardage as well (4 for 77), so will be used by the Giants.

Rhett Ellison o24.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (PP) – 2 pts, Shaheen anytime TD – 11/1 (Skybet) 1pt

Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) @ Detroit Lions: Total – 54.5

Ah the Lions, the NFC version of the Bengals. Their season is done and another of their players heads to IR, Marvin Jones done for the season, Kerryon Johnson likely out of this one too, leaving Kenny Golladay and Gary Blount to lead the team. That’s not a good thing. The Rams have had a weeks rest after that cracker vs the Chiefs and I’d imagine they’d cover the nearly double digit spread here. Again look out for Josh Reynolds as I’d expect Cooks to draw Slay meaning softer coverage for Woods and him. RAMS

Not a whole lot more to say here, Reynolds is too short for me now at a best of 5/2, as low as 6/4 in places. Bruce Ellington yards are of interest as they don’t really have anyone else who can catch the ball, 41.5 at PP (48.5 at Skybet if you want under) – Got to admit I’m tempted with Pharoah Cooper at 20s as well, the pro-bowl returner was back last week with 9 snaps all on special teams. Too risky for me.

Arizona Cardinals (+14.5  -12 at skybet, 13.5 at 365) @ Green Bay Packers: Total – 42.5

Do the Packers deserve to be over 2 TDs favourite against anyone?! I know the Cards are a mess, but come of it. Their suffered a dream-killing defeat last week in Minnesota and honestly don’t really have the weapons to do much to stuff anyone. They should win this, of course, Rodgers is good, the Welshman is a great RB and Davante Adams is good, but outside of those 3 guys there’s a lack of anything. The Cardinals will do what they do, they’ll give DJ a lot of touches, try and get the ball to Kirk and Fitz. – GB win but don’t cover.

Jake Kumerow was activated this week!!! 12/1 at Ladrokes – 1 point, Davante Adams anytime – 10/11 – 4 pts (NAP) 

Cleveland Browns (+6.5  5) @ Houston Texans: Total – 48

I had the “pleasure” of watching the Browns dismantle my team last week, they were the far better team, in fact since Hue Jackson left the Browns, only Drew Brees has a better QBR than Baker Mayfield. Last week against the trash-heap of the Bengals helped that but still it’s impressive, and Nick Chubb has added a vital run game to them as well, he’s been brilliant since they off-loaded Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville. The Texans are the first team in history to win 8 games after losing their first 3 and last week was finally an impressive performance. Demaryius Thomas got involved again last week adding more redzone threat and providing 2 TDs. I think the Browns will cover the spread, but am I confident of taking them to win the match?! My god I’m close to it. – BROWNS, should be sneaky high scoring.

Money has come for the Brownies, it always does, the Texans defense vs the Browns offensive line and Mayfield. This should be a good televised match! The Texans aren’t very good vs the tight end and Njoku is a good one, 11/4 (Hills/Fred) is a good enough price for him. I’m tempted with his opposite number again, Jordan Thomas is 6/1 anytime at Skybet. Also DJJ rec. yards at 26.5 on Skybet at 5/6. If they get pressure on Mayfield he may have to dump it off to the pass catching back more often and it’s a low total, one that I seem to take frequently actually.

David Njoku anytime – 11/4 (WillHill) – 2 pts. Duke Johnson o26.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2 points

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Total – 56

A divisional matchup that’s much more important for one of team than the other! The Panthers are struggling after losing 3 in a row and now sitting at 6-5 from 6-2. They need to get that sorted to resume their playoff challenge which is teetering at the moment, and they’ll definitely score points this week. Christian McCaffery ran for 100 and recieved 100 more last week (the 4th in Panthers history) and they out-gained the Seahawks considerably, just couldn’t score. The Buccs won easily and Jameis Winston… hang on… *rubs eyes* it says here he didn’t throw an interception?!? Surely not? He loves Cam Brate look for him anytime. Carolina need the win more, it will be a close one so avoid the spread – CAROLINA

You’re looking at the usual guys here really, Cameron Brate (was 3/1 now 9/4 Sky/WillHill) DJ Moore (9/4 WillHIll) Curtis Samuel (10/3 PP) would be the guys I’m looking at to score in the highest total of the week, maybe worth looking at the BPTS market on them. Brate and Moore – 19/2, Brate and Samuel – 8/1 on Skybet.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Total – 47.5

The Jags come to this a changed team, Cody Kessler has been named QB and their OC has been sacked. It makes them a little harder to judge, they can’t be much worse, right? The Colts look brilliant at the moment though despite a bit of a struggle this weekend gone. Luck is a lock for comeback player of the year, TY Hilton good, Eric Ebron will have to step up between the 20s this week as Jack Doyle has gone on IR, it means if Eric Swoope or Mo Alie-Cox get fit they’re a good look for a TD. COLTS win

Swoope ONLY 11/2 now, I’m sure he was 11/1 earlier in the week. Frustrating. I’ll probably still have a point there though. And I feel I’ve got to take my boy, my long lost American cousin, Clive (amazing surname) Walford at 20/1 – The Colts score with tight ends and they will use one of these two frequently as Ebron isn’t a blocking tight end. Walford isn’t for everyone so I won’t be tipping it, but you bet your ass I’ll be backing someone with my surname.

Eric Swoope – 11/2 (Skybet) – 1pt

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: Total – 49

I would expect Lamar Jackson to keep the QB job whether Flacco is declared fit or not. They gave him the chance to test his throwing at this level against the Raiders, knowing they’d win no matter what he did, but what he did was average at best, a couple of TDs, couple of INTs, not hugely accurate, but they let him run second half and he did it well, of course, he and Gus the Bus look great as a tandem. The Falcons couldn’t convert chances with 3 redzone turnovers last week, if that luck levels out it’ll be a long night for the Ravens, in fact – FALCONS win

TyMo was the guy I was looking at here, but at 7/2 that’s far FAR too short. I’m really not trying to only tip tight ends but they seem to be where the value is! Nick Boyle seems to be Jacksons boy, but Mark Andrews gets a lot of red zone looks generally. He’s 17/2 on Skybet. Alex Collins’ season is over, he’s on the IR so don’t bother backing him! Lamar Jackson rush yards around 70 everywhere.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Total – 51

This is a huge game in the playoff chase, but unfortunately the Chargers come into it without their main man Melvin Gordon, it’s a huge loss as he’s arguably the second best RB in the league this year; It means a bigger role for Ekeler and possibly the rookie Justin Jackson but these guys just aren’t Melvin. Rivers is brilliant though and finished last week with 28 from 29 attempts. The Steelers had one of their usual screw ups last week on the road but they usually respond well, especially at home so I’d expect them to take care of business, their turnover differential is horrible and they’ll need to figure that out, but the STEELERS win this, and cover.

Nothing for me here, obviously Ekeler and Justin Jackson were the prices I was looking for, but neither are priced well enough for me personally, 14/5 for JJ, Evens are Ekeler. Nah.

Kansas City Chiefs (-14) @ Oakland Raiders: Total – 55.5

Andy Reid, off a bye week, against one of the worst teams in the AFC? That’s enough writing about this one. CHIEFS

I’m glad nothing has changed in KC since I wrote these on Wednesday night… Jesus Christ. What a week for the Chiefs! Kareem Hunt released after a video emerged of him “BRUTALIZING” a woman. He really didn’t, but was pretty aggressive towards her and it was caught on video so he gone, if he was a QB I doubt it would have gone down this way, but RBs are relatively replaceable. Whether anyone picks him up for the next season remains to be seen, as with all these things It’ll probably blow over and someone will take a chance on the talent. – Vegas didn’t react much lowering the Chiefs half a point only. Spencer Ware comes in for him and is immediately set at a prohibitive 4/9 anytime. Ridiculous. You watch Anthony Sherman score tonight as everyone is thinking it’ll be all Ware.

NY Jets (+10) @ Tennessee Titans: Total – 40.5

Sam Darnold will be out again, so Josh McCown will start and Robby Anderson will have another week of fitness. Last week Enunwa had a lot of the ball but honestly no-one on either of these teams can be trusted. The Titans leading rusher last week was… That’s right… Corey Davis. He also led where he should do, in receiving yards. Jonnu Smith scored again for them and I’d be looking at him this week too. Not a chance I’m going near touching them on the spread, but TITANS should win.

Jonnu Smith – 37/13 <- What the fuck is that?! Best of 12/5 in normal odds. Not for me at that price unfortunately. Robby Anderson at 4/1 (Skybet) isn’t bad if he’s back fit. Josh McCown likes him so he should get targets. The man with all the targets for them last week was Jermaine Kearse though and he’s at 5/1 on Betfred. I think one of those two will score, but not sure which. There doesn’t seem to be a yardage line on Kearse for some reason. Chris Herndon is 34.5 though and I fancy him to go over that.

Christopher Herndon IV – o34.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2 points

Minnesota Vikings (+5) @ New England Patriots: Total – 49.5

What a game this should be, one that before the season I would have thought could be the Superbowl. Not quite that line of thought now! The Vikings beat the Packers last week and looked good doing it; They’ve got the best WR duo in the league with Thielen and Diggs and those two should do well against the Pats. The Patriots themselves welcomed back Gronk finally last week and he got a TD. It’s something they’ve missed for most of the season, he and Michel being back helps them greatly and they’ve activated Rex Burkhead from IR to add to the backfield too. this is tough. I’m going to take a risk – VIKINGS

Diggs is playing but I can’t imagine him being fully fit, so Aldrick Robsinson is of interest at 13/2 on Spreadex or 6/1 on 365. He won’t catch many passes but the ones he does catch are usually high value.

Aldrick Robinson anytime – 6/1 (365) – 1 point

San Francisco 49ers (+10) @ Seattle Seahawks: Total – 46

Not quite as exciting as the previous game. The Seahawks shouldn’t have any issues here – SEAHAWKS

Damn you Ed Dickson, you pain in the arse. Last time I’m backing him if it doesn’t land but he has been increasing in snaps and out-snapped Nick Vannett for the first time last week, so I do have logic and not blind faith. My boy David Moore now into 15/8 anytime, remember when he was 18s and 500/1 for 2 or more?! Ah, the good old days.

Erm, Ed Dickson?! – 9/1 (PP) – 1 point (he’s 100/1 for 2 or more)


Summary – 

Anytime TDs –

  • Adam Shaheen – 11/1 (Skybet) 1pt
  • Jake Kumerow – 12/1 (Ladrokes) – 1 point
  • Davante Adams anytime – 10/11 (Skybet) – 4 pts (NAP) 
  • David Njoku anytime – 11/4 (WillHill) – 2 pts
  • Eric Swoope – 11/2 (Skybet) – 1pt
  • Aldrick Robinson anytime – 6/1 (365) – 1 point
  • Ed Dickson?! – 9/1 (PP) – 1 point

Yards –

  • Rhett Ellison o24.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (PP) – 2 pts
  • Christopher Herndon IV – o34.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2 points
  • Duke Johnson o26.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2 points

Both players to score trixie (Skybet) –

  • John Ross and Freeman to score – 12/1
  • Cameron Brate and DJ Moore to score – 19/2
  • Sony Michel and Kyle Rudolph to score – 10/1

0.25 pt, so in total a 1pt trixie on these.

  • Single on – John Ross and Sutton to score – 11/1 – 1 point

Right, that’s that. 19 points outlay.

Good Luck if you’re following anything.


Remember to enter the draftkings league!

https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/65309556

The Colossus bets are here – Pick 7 and Pick 4

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