Week 14 briefs and a few tips

I hope you all got on Derrick Henry to score 4 TDs and rush for o200 yards as I recommended on Thursday? Yeah, didn’t quite get that one right, the one thing I wrote about their run game was that it was anaemic and not worth considering. Although in my defence I did mention his anytime price and that he’d scored 5 in his last 6 games… What a random match that was. And of course the one player prop I didn’t get on was the one that won with Taywan Taylor easily topping his yards.

Thanks to anyone who got on the Super Syndicate between myself and Liz, @NFLGirlUK – It’s a rollover and they approached me to form like Voltron to try and take down the £56k prize. I’ll admit I haven’t done well on the Colossus things, turns out it’s not easy to call winning margins in games!


NY Jets (+3.5) @ Buffalo Bills: 38.5

Another low total to begin the Sunday slate of games. It looks like Sam Darnold will be back this week giving us Rookie vs Rookie at QB for these teams, that at least adds a little bit of excitement to an otherwise dour looking matchup. That may actually be a little harsh on Josh Allen who has been a reason to at least keep an eye on the Bills with 234 rushing yards in the last 2 weeks, and he should have won them the game last week, slightly under-throwing Clay after scrambling to make room for the throw. He may not be the total bust that many thought he would be coming out of the draft, a poor mans Cam Newton if you like, actually with Cam struggling with a shoulder injury I could even suggest that he’s better than Cam at the moment!… This is the second youngest QB matchup in history. – The Bills released Kelvin Benjamin (now looking like he’s on a Superbowl run with the Chiefs…) and Andre Holmes who didn’t get so lucky landing with the Broncos, so they’re all about the youth now, Robert Foster and Isiaih McKenzie are probably targets now.

The weather is meant to very cold (feels like 19f), if there’s pics of snow on the ground then it’s a sensible play to still take the unders. Also means it’ll probably be a Shady McCoy game, he loves the snow. I’m surprised to see Josh Allen rush yards at only around 40 as well to be honest.

Josh Allen o39.5 rush yards – 10/11 (RZBet) – 2 points

Despite my season long bets I want and think the Bills will win. BILLS

Baltimore Ravens (+6) @ Kansas City Chiefs: 53

What a matchup. The best offense vs the best defense. Mahomes is brilliant, not much more needs to be said on him, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are two of the best in their positions, and they’ll make do with whomever is at RB. Usually in these matters you’d side with the better defense, but you can’t defend someone who rifles the ball into players at 80mph no matter how tight you are to them. In fact I’ve got to think this handicap is wrong, it’s got the Chiefs as only 2.5 points better on a neutral field? Come off it. – CHIEFS.

Gus the bus Edwards at 6/5 (PP) looks like a decent go at the price, they Ravens have only thrown for 1 TD in Jackson’s 3 starts, and Gus and Lamar have been smashing it on the ground. Mark Andrews is the other one I keep getting drawn to, he’s the best of their many tight ends in the passing game, 8/1 (365) isn’t horrible really.

I’m generally avoiding the Chiefs players on the off chance the Ravens D does step up and slow them down, Spencer Ware was around 1/3 last week, he’s above evens now, 6/5 on Skybet, tempting.

Gus Edwards anytime – 6/5 (PP) – 2 points

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ Green Bay Packers: 48.5

Mike McCarthy has finally gone, a mercy killing so to speak. He was a dead man walking and he’s now got the chance to get ahead of the curve in looking for a new job. This is a tough game to call though because the Falcons were garbage last week, Packers lost at home to the Cardinals. Joe Philbin has been a head coach before at Miami and has been OC at the Packers, you’ve got to think he’ll be running Aaron Jones as lot more and giving up with the split backfield?

Now, the narrative says that Aaron Rodgers will “Stick it to the man” and suddenly become amazing this week now McCarthy has gone. That should mean, he and Davante Adams will be good for DFS, Adams is a standout 10/11 on Skybet, and my boy Jake Kumerow is 10/1 there as well if you want a long shot, 1 catch last week isn’t convincing really.

For the Falcons? Austin Hooper maybe? Ryan’s inside/outside splits aren’t promising here and they seem to be done for the year mentally, so I’m not confident on much on that side of the ball. Especially with it likely sub-zero temperatures here as well.

Either way I’m leaning to the Packers to win, I wouldn’t bet on this one though – PACKERS

Davante Adams anytime – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2 pts

Carolina Panthers (+1) @ Cleveland Browns: 47

A lot of money on the Browns, this opened Panthers -2

What the hell happened to the Panthers? from 6-2 to 5-6 in a few weeks, and the 10 game unbeaten home record is looking miles away, they lost Greg Olsen this week too, they just haven’t been able to convert in the redzone recently. The Browns were on a hot streak before getting humbled by the Texans last week, not that Baker know what humility is. That’s probably a good thing for them as he’ll come back home still overflowing with confidence in his ability, and it should shine through against a poor Carolina defense, although firing 2 defensive assistants probably won’t hurt things too much!

The Cam shoulder injury worries me, and has definitely added to their fall from playoff contenders, he took a battering to the Buccs last week and the Browns pass rush is pretty good as well so could be a painful night for him tonight as well. Curtis Samuel is someone I’ve been high on since he returned earlier in the season, he played 83% of their offensive snaps last week and finished with 8 from 11 targets and 88 yards. His line is at 39.5 on 365 and Skybet seems too low in my eyes. Ian Thomas is the tight end now that Greg Olsen is out, his line is 25.5 (1/1 on PP) He ended with 44 yards last week, so if you want to risk a rookie tight end then it’s not a horrible line

The Browns? Got to take Nick Chubb again really, he’s at 5/6 on William Hill to score anytime. Antonio Callaway would probably be the look at a slightly bigger price but he has an issue with drops so could prove very frustrating! 23/10 is probably a bit too short really. Higgins is 4/1, scored last week. Tough one to get the right week though.

Another that I will probably avoid for betting… – BROWNS

Nick Chubb anytime – 5/6 (WillHill) – 2 points

Indianapolis Colts (+5) @ Houston Texans: 48

The Texans have pretty much wrapped up the division on this ridiculous 9 game winning streak, but a win here would confirm it and probably mean the Colts will miss out on the playoffs. The Colts defeat against the Jags last week was probably the strangest result of the weekend and possibly caused by the problems they’ve got at centre. They’ll need to bounce back here, but if they’re still struggling with 3rd/4th stringers on that O-Line they won’t be able to against this Texans team. The Texans have looked better week on week and Miller seems to have figured how to run the ball. I want the Colts to win, but I think the Texans continue their streak – TEXANS

I haven’t got anything on this one. Donta Foreman is a name to keep an eye on in coming weeks though, he’s been activated from the IR, but Achilles is a horrible injury for an RB to come back from so It’ll be interesting to see if he gets many snaps this week.

A line on sacks could be interesting here.

New England Patriots (-8) @ Miami Dolphins: 47

Erm, the Dolphins have won 4 of the last 5 games against the Pats in Miami, the last one being pretty much this weekend last year, I’m not quite sure how it’s happened but they seem to play up against them. The history alone means I won’t be backing the Pats on this one, they’re 3-3 on the road this season as well which further worries me. Xavien Howard is in pro-bowl form as well in the Miami secondary – BUT He isn’t playing in this one and may miss the rest of the season if rumours of surgery are true. Now this is where it gets tough. The Dolphins are 5-1 at home, but the eye-test says they’re garbage.

Sony Michel at Evens, James White at 5/4 both look good. Chris Hogan (6 on PP) and C Patt (9 on PP) are probably the guys to take at higher prices. For some reason I fancy James White to score this week, he’s got 10 on the season but hasn’t scored in 4 which gives me pause.

So looking at it with no history you’ve got to take the Pats. Argggh, I can’t back the Dolphins – PATRIOTS

New Orleans Saints (-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 56

The Saints lost a game. They were playing one of the top 5 defenses on the road on a Thursday night and had the ball with a chance to get down the field. They’re not playing a good defense this week though so I’d expect normal service to resume. Somehow Jameis Winston hasn’t thrown an INT in 2 weeks, in games where the Buccs don’t throw ints, they win, and he played very well against them at the end of last year.

Chris Godwin is the man without Desean Jackson who looks like he might miss the rest of the season, his line is set at 57.5 on 365, he’s topped that every time he’s played without Jackson there, and is 2/1 to score anytime for them tonight, and Adam Humphries leads the league in TDs over the last month (iirc) 7/2 for him over at Ladbrokes is very tempting. 5 in his last 5 with over 50 yards in each of them.

The Saints? I can’t figure out who’s going to do anything week on week for them. I’m not sure if they’ve peaked and this is it, or whether they’re just in a bit of a rut at the moment so won’t be going near anyone on that side of the ball.

I would lean to the Buccs to cover the spread, but as with the Patriots, I don’t think I can ignore the better team – SAINTS

Adam Humphries anytime – 7/2 (Ladbrokes) – 2 points

NY Giants (-4) @ Washington Redskins: 41

The Redskins lost their backup QB to a broken leg last week leaving them with the mighty Mark Sanchez to play this week against the Giants, hence why they’re 4 point favourites on the road. The Redskins opened as 1 point favourites, so the loss of McCoy has meant a 5 point swing.

Odell Beckham misses out with a quad injury, so it’s all on Saquon really. Bennie Fowler was a good price once the news was announced, but now untouchable at 4/1. That’s horrible. Apparently they may play some more 3 Tight end sets, Engram, Ellison and er… Scott Simonsen according to their depth chart. Rhett Ellison at 12s on PP is probably the one if you wanted a bigger price.

Only interest on the Redskins is Peterson at 5/4 on 365/Ladbrokes

I think I’ve still got to take the Giants to win though – GIANTS

Cincinnati Bengals (+14) @ Los Angeles Chargers: 47.5

Ok, the Chargers have a lower than usual home-field advantage, say 2.5 points, so the bookies are saying they’re 11.5 points better than the Bengals on a neutral field?! – That’s probably being too kind on the Bengals at the moment. They are a complete shambles on both sides of the ball, Tyler Boyd the ONLY upside on the offense. The Chargers will probably be without Melvin Gordon again, it looks like that role will be filled by Justin Jackson this week after he turned the game against the Steelers. It doesn’t matter who’s at RB they’ll score at least 2 TDs between them.

Was hoping they’d be sleeping on Justin Jackson a bit, obviously not as he’s best priced 11/8 on Betfred. I still think he’s the bet over Ekeler. Detrez Newsome is 16s on Unibet. If the Chargers get out to the lead that they may well get to, then he may get some snaps later on in the match.

Boyd at 3s is generous on the Bengals side of the ball. Auden Tate at 18s, but both require them to actually be able to move the ball which seems unlikely.

They’ll probably cover as well as straight up – CHARGERS

Denver Broncos (-5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: 44.5

I’ve got to think the Broncos are the far better team here and they’ve got the motivational advantage as well as they’re still in with a chance of making the playoffs if they run the table, which they could with the schedule they’ve got ahead of them, they lost a couple of key defensive players last week but that shouldn’t hurt them too much against this niners team, what will hurt them is Emannuel Sanders now out for the season after tearing his achilles on Wednesday, he’s been key for them this year and will be replaced by DaeSean Hamilton in the slot with Tim Patrick outside (I think). Nick Mullens actually topped 400 yards for the 49ers last week against the Seahawks whilst playing catchup, a lot of that was to Dante Pettis and they also had a lot of yardage from Jeffery Wilson Jnr. He’s definitely one to look for in the prop market –

Missed pretty much all the good prices on this one. A lot of unproven guys all under 5/1 isn’t for me.

At the end of the day, the Niners need to lose, Denver need to win. – DENVER

Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: 40.5

I’ll be amazed if this cracker isn’t on Sky this week… A total of 40.5 but I’d probably still lean to the unders. The Cards someone won last week, the Lions did pretty well against the Rams but look Blount on the offense without Kerryon Johnson in there. The Cards have a fairly decent defense but I have no idea what’s going to happen in this one.

Trent Sherfield at 10s on PP could get some looks as there’s practically no-one else for them to throw the ball to. Seems strange that Chase Edmonds is 10/1 on 365 after scoring twice last week.

LIONS should win though, they’ve solidified their run D and Rosen isn’t capable of beating them through the air especially with Christian Kirk on IR now.

Larry Fitz o45.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2 points

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: 43

The Cowboys win and they’ll essentially secure the NFC East, the Eagles win and they’re in with a chance of stealing although they’ve got a tough remaining schedule. I’ve said it, and I’ll say it again since bringing in Cooper the Cowboys have been a changed team, they are able to get games how they like them, use Zeke a lot, keep the ball, keep their defense fresh and that defense has been brilliant in recent weeks. The Eagles haven’t been as impressive but have been grinding out results recently to keep them in with a chance and are slowly getting healthier week by week.

Nothing for me here, Zeke should score, Adams for the Eagles maybe? Can’t figure either of these teams out to be honest.

This should be a decent game, I’d expect it to be fairly low scoring, so a lean to the unders, the Cowboys are the better team at the moment, especially at home – COWBOYS

Pittsburgh Steelers (10.5) @ Oakland Raiders: 51.5

The Steelers are faltering in recent weeks, they gave away a 10 point 4th quarter lead to the Chargers last week causing fights between their own fans and of course all of them blaming the officials. They also lost James Connor who looks like he’ll be replaced either by Jaylen Samuels by himself or him and Stevan Ridley in a committee. They don’t usually use a committee so I’d expect Samuels to take most of it. The Raiders scored some points last week against the Chiefs, Jared Cook again the main man for them, although 10 catches for Jordy Nelson came out of nowhere.

CJ Anderson signed for them in the week, Doug Martin is expected to start but was listed as questionable with a knee. You can get 12s on him at Skybet if you want a random potshot. Marcell Ateman scored for them at 5s last week, he’s 5s again this on 365/Ladbrokes.

They’ll do well to keep the Steelers offense at bay but once again history tells us that the Raiders are in with a good chance of covering the spread, the Steelers aren’t great as double digit favourites on the road. STEELERS

Los Angeles Rams (-3) @ Chicago Bears: 52.5

This should be a cracker. The Rams, well they didn’t struggle as such against the Lions, but they weren’t as impressive as they have been but pulled away at the end of the game. It will be different this week against this Bears defense. They are one of the best units in the league, the pairing of Hicks and Mack have been formidable, and their rushing the QB has aided one of the better safety duos in the league, Eddie Jackson is a name most of us should know! The other team aren’t bad up front either, Aaron Donald is pretty much DPOY again, and Suh isn’t bad himself! Talib being back definitely helps their secondary as well. Trubisky should be back for the Bears, I’m still not convinced by him but he’s better than Chase Daniel.

Anthony Miller and Josh Reynolds both at 3s would be my bets, but everyone is pretty short on here unfortunately.

This should be a cracker, but I’ll go with McVays side – RAMS


Summary

Anytimes – 

  • Gus Edwards – 6/5 (PP)
  • Davante Adams – 10/11 (Skybet)
  • Nick Chubb – 5/6 (WillHill)
  • Adam Humphries – 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

Player props – 

  • Josh Allen o39.5 rush yards – 10/11 (RZBet)
  • Curtis Samuel o39.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet)
  • Larry Fitz o45.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) 

For me, that’s not a lot, 2 points on each – 14 points total.


I do quite like the Skybet trebles tonight, although short odds they should land.

Get in the Draftkings league if you haven’t entered already! – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/65783305

Good Luck with whatever you’re on tonight!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑