Week 15 – TNF – LA Chargers @ KC Chiefs – #FightForEachOther v #ChiefsKingdom

First off… weird hashtag Chargers. Just weird.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: 54

This should have been a brilliant game, and it still should but injuries are taking their toll on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs own the division and have done for a few years now, they’re 4-0 against the division this year and 6-0 at home this year. They have also won the last 9 games against the Chargers, 4 of them at Arrowhead. It’s expected to be cold there tonight, around freezing with a little rain and the usual homefield advantage is about 3.5 – 4 points so to see the line having them roughly at the same level is a little surprising to me, I think the Chiefs are the better team.

Chargers:

It looks like Melvin Gordon is going to be out, they promoted a bum from the practise squad today, that’s usually a sign that someone will be missing out, and Ekeler is definitely out with a stinger/concussion for the run game for the Chargers will fall on Justin Jackson (10/11) and Detrez Newsome (9/2) both best priced on Skybet (Who I tipped at big odds last week and is a high of 9/2 this) I thought Jackson would have blown up against the Bengals last weekend but he didn’t look that great. After averaging 8 yards per carry in the games against the Steelers and Cards, 7 and 8 carries… He ran for a total of 12 yards on 7 carries against one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Chiefs don’t have a good run D either, and as he’s likely to be the main guy tonight he’ll have to sort his shit out. From the little I saw of Newsome against the Cardinals he looks the more likely to be a bruiser but that’s from very limited viewing. Troymaine Pope was the guy promoted, he’s only price at CoraLadbrokes but 3/1 is ridiculous. In short, I’m not sure I would trust any of them tonight and it’s a big hit to the Chargers offense.

The passing game should get a bump as a result of the RB injuries for them, however Philip Rivers does not have good times in KC. His last 4 visits there – TD:INT – 0:2 0:1 1:0 1:3 – So 2 TDs and 6 interceptions in the last 4 games there. The yardages weren’t high either. Admittedly that was with a better Chiefs defense than the one he’ll be facing tonight, and he has been tidy with the ball this year, but still. For the record he threw one in the opener of the season against the Chiefs.

His main target is and probably always will be Keenan Allen (5/4 Skybet), he’s a great receiver although doesn’t get as many TDs as they’d probably like, 6 this year, and he has one in 5 consecutive games now, he looks like he’s on target for the highest receiving yards of his career this year and he blew up a fortnight ago in the last game they had to actually try for, finishing with 11 receptions from 19 targets against the Steelers for 148 and a TD. That was mainly because for some reason Pitt just kept letting him get matched up against a linebacker which he burned constantly which they took advantage of, he should have a good matchup tonight as well. The Williams brothers are the deeper threats for them, it’s tough to figure which will get the action but they are both capable of putting up 2 TD games, Mike Williams (9/4 Skybet) seems the bigger target and is used more often than Tyrell (7/2 PP) in the redzone. Tyrell Williams yards at 36.5 on Bet365 look a good one to go over on at 5/6. And to mix it up a little more Travis Benjamin (11/2 WillHill) is back from injury, he scored against the Steelers the other week too.

At tight end they’ve got old reliable Antonio Gates (9/2 Fred). He had to rejoin them after Hunter Henry did himself for the season and he seems to finally be up to speed! Did you know he used to play Basketball at college? His line is set at 18.5 on Skybet, he’s not going to get any yards after the catch but it’s safe he’s still massive and can be of use in short yardage situations.

Their defense is an area of strength and they welcomed back Joey Bosa a few weeks ago to add to Melvin Ingram on the other side, the two of them in tandem were amazing last year. Strangly Ingram hasn’t had a sack since Bosa returned. Bosa has had 4 in 3 games, and Ingram had 5 before that. They’ll be able to get pressure on Mahomes, and after the Ravens showed how to do it I’d imagine they’ll bring the pressure a lot tonight.


Chiefs:

Patrick Mahomes. Is a wizard. He’s the most fun QB in the league to watch and looks to have the potential to rule the league for a decade or so. His no-look pass last week was something I’ve never seen before and it was even more impressive as it was right in the bread basket for a receiver running the opposite direction. His scrambles at the end of the game was something that maybe only Russell Wilson could have made. Basically whatever you do, he has an answer for it.

It looks like Spencer Ware is out for them tonight, he was already the second choice RB after some KHunt who is not in the league any more, so they’ll be relying on some more Williams brothers, Damien and Darrel. Damien got himself 2 TDs last week, one each on the ground and through the air, and that was with Ware playing most of the game. I don’t think he’s really a workhorse back but he’s shown he can do it when needed, 11/10 on Betstars is the best you’re going to get there, and to me, much like Justin Jackson that’s too short to be betting. Darrel is high priced at 9/2 on Unibet, but he’s completely unproven after being signed as an undrafted free agent, in fact hasn’t even had a touch in the league. I would actually expect Charcandrick West (17/2 Unibet) to have more touches, I have a feeling he’ll be in as the main runner having been there and done it in the past for the Chiefs, despite the fact he’s only just returned to them. He was mainly a 3rd down back for them, but has had bigger roles when needed. Admittedly a couple of years ago now he had 16 carries and 5 receptions for 116 yards and 2 TDs against the Chargers, so it’s been a while but he can do it.

Much like the Chargers logic would suggest that they’ll probably pass more than run with the injuries to any proven runners. The Chiefs passing game has been dynamic all year with Mahomes, his main guys are Kelce (5/6) and Tyreek Hill (1/1 both on Skybet). It looks like Hill will be playing despite a heel injury, in fact @JeneBramal reckons that he’s actually in less pain running as you’re on tip-toes more than heels. I’ve said before though that he’s better on the road, and with the injury I don’t feel entirely confident in taking him to score or yards, he was brilliant against a far better defense in the Ravens last week though even after the injury became apparent. Kelce has 7 TDs in the last 6 games, and had at least 99 yards in 3 of them, catching at least 6 in each as well. His reception line is at 6.5 on PP and 365, better odds at Paddy though. The other pass catches likely to get some action tonight, Chris Conley (11/4 Betstars) is probably the WR2, although that’s not a role with a whole lot of action, only 3 targets last week, but I do think that there’s a good chance he goes over his line of 29.5 at Skybet tonight. Next choice I guess would be Demarcus Robinson? 15/2 on Skybet, only 1 TD this year, but he did catch 5 of 7 targets last week so might not be an awful bet at the odds. They have a another tight end as well who gets some action, Demetrius Harris (5/1 Skybet) has won me money this year, he scored a couple of weeks ago, so can’t be ruled out. 15.5 rec. yards on Skybet for him.

So their defense hasn’t been great this year, however it does seem to have been getting better in recent weeks and it looks like Eric Berry is finally going to make his return from injury, he’s going to start but be on a pitch count according to Rapsheet. He’s their defensive leader and could well make a big difference to them. And it would be remiss of me to NOT mention Chris Jones who has had at least 1 sack in 9 consecutive games for the Chiefs. He’s the first player to have hit that many games in a row! He and Dee Ford have been wrecking offenses all season.

Summary:

I think the Chiefs win, I think they’ll cover.

I was very tempted to take the unders until I wrote this… With no real run game between them there will probably be a whole lot of passing which should mean quick scoring and a lot of possessions for each team. That means points.

  • Chiefs -2.5 and o58.5 – 3/1 (Skybet) – 2pts
  • Chris Conley o29.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2pts
  • Charcandrick West anytime – 17/2 (Unibet) – 1pt
  • Tyrell Williams o36.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (365) – 2pts

I’ll stick with them that I’ll record on the P/L for the site, I’ll likely have a few more, as always Skybet have their bet £10 and get a £5er on RaBs, could be some value there if they still think Spencer Ware is playing.

Just a word on the Redzone bet predictor challenge. I’ve mentioned it a few times that you could win a £500 free bet each week on there. As it happens I finished joint top this week meaning top and second prize were split so I’ve got a £350 free bet burning a hole in my pocket on there! – If you want to get involved, and you really should. All you have to do is sign up with them – SIGN UP HERE – Bet £10 per week on whatever you want and you get entry into the predictor league on there. Nice and easy to play and a chance to win some free bets!

Only issue is now what do I bet my £350 on to turn it into withdrawable CASH?!

As always, join the DK league – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/66230609

Good Luck with whatever you’re on and hopefully it’ll be a good game. Should be a cracker and well worth the 120 wake up!

REMEMBER THE PICKEM LEAGUE IF YOU’RE STILL TRYING, AND REMEMBER THERE’S 2 SATURDAY GAMES THIS WEEK! SET YOUR FANTASY TEAMS!

Adam.

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