SNF – Week 15 briefs and tips

Well, I managed to stay awake for the whole Texans game, I said Texans and avoid the spread, I still feel that was correct despite the Texans covering it late on with that field goal. I put out Eli McGuire o24.5 receiving yards on twitter, as well as Jordan Thomas anytime, the McGuire bet came in with the last proper play of the game as the Texans needing 20 odd yards threw underneath for McGuire to gain 10 or so and top his target. It covered the loss on Thomas at least! Thomas, who by the way was WIDE open on a scramble play by Watson that he eventually threw over the head of Hopkins who he didn’t take his eyes off.

I also put out Njoku anytime. I thought after what Kittle did to the Broncos last week that he’d have a lot of the ball, but seemingly not. Little miffed by this one tbh. I said the Browns though which came through to keep their faint hopes of the playoffs, and possibly a DIVISION TITLE?! Alive… Well, until the Bengals begin their playoff run next week by beating them at the First energy stadium…

(My thoughts as always are available on the OLBG experts blog before I get my extended previews out on Sundays – https://www.olbg.com/blogs/nfl-week-tnf You get the benefit of 5 others opinions on there as well! – Always worth a read)


Dallas Cowboys (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: 47

The first cracker of the week! The Cowboys have pretty much wrapped up the NFC East after beating the Eagles last week, Dak throwing for 455, half of them to Amari Cooper who got a hat-trick! The Colts will be looking to keep up the pace in their hunt for a wildcard spot (outside chance of the division still) – The matchup of this game is Luck vs the DAL Defense, and the Colts trying to stop Zeke. Colts are average against opposing RBs at home but Zeke is top 3 and has blown up since Cooper joined. Another to avoid in the betting, but the Cowboys just keep rolling at the moment, maybe me picking them will jinx them – COWBOYS

The Colts are up there with the Falcons in defending pass catching RBs, and they come up against one of the best in the league tonight. His receiving line is at 40.5 on 365 and Redzone, he’s topped that line in 4 of 6 games and hit 36 in one of the others. – The tight end situation has changed in Indy recently, obviously Doyle is out for the season, but the released Erik Swoope when they realised Mo Alie-Cox was going to be back for this weekend and with Ebron receiving ALL the targets I think there’s a chance Big Mo gets into the endzone again, and 10/1 is a good price for him on 365.

Zeke o40.5 rec. yards – RZ/PP – 2 pts, Mo Alie-Cox anytime TD – 10/1 (365) – 1pt

Oakland Raiders (+3) @ Cincinnati Bengals: 46

My god. 3-10 vs 5-8. The Raiders actually come into this on better form having beaten the Steelers last week. They’re nowhere near as good on the road, but have found ways to score points recently. They should do that on the ground this week so look for a price on Doug Martin, the Bengals are the worst in the league vs the RB. The other side of the ball Joe Mixon has been brilliant in recent weeks, he had 31 touches last week totting up 138 total yards and a TD in a game the Bengals finally showed some fight in. It was a rare sighting in recent weeks and the lack of QB pressure these teams get on the opposing QBs means that Driskel will get a better chance to show what he can do. BENGALS

My god. I’m so conflicted on this one, I know full well how stupid it is to trust the Bengals to win, and losing is probably the better move for them with regards to the draft, but I just can’t take the Raiders. On the road, coming off a shock win as big underdogs? It’s a let-down spot for them, and frankly I still think the Bengals are the more talented team. That’s probably just my home-team bias though. Anyway… Doug Martin (5/4 Ladbrokes) should score, Joe Mixon (4/5 PP) should score – Both to score is 5/2 on Skybet. Jeff Driskel at 7s (Ladbrokes/WillHill) isn’t awful, he scored last week but some bullshit rule (Which they ignored last night in the Keenum TD run) ruled it out.

 Tennessee Titans (-1) @ NY Giants: 43.5

Something to watch in this game? Well, Henry got 238 yards and 4 TDs last week, Barkley 197 yards and a TD. Will Odell be back? The Titans are a stout defense, although not as good on the road. It’s strange to see the 7-6 team as underdogs, but I can’t get away from the talent the Giants have. But they’re 2-4 at home… Argh. Tough choice here, Titans are 2-5 on the road. GIANTS

So the line on this one moved from +2.5 earlier in the week to the Titans now being 1 point favourites. Beckham is out again, I’m not sure if that affected the line or not, but it’s a big swing. Barkley is this offense for the rest of this season and he’s topped 100 yards on the ground in the last 4 games. Good luck trusting Derrick Henry again, he’s set at 51.5 on PP. One to look at for yards and possible a score is FIRKSER! (That’s his real surname) o31.5 on PP looks like a good line, and 5/1 on Ladbrokes anytime isn’t awful either. He’s gone over 40 in 4 of his last 5 games and with Jonnu Smith out he should get more attention in the passing game.

Anthony Firkser – o31.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP) – 2 points

Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: 43

The Miami miracle was one of the best plays I’ve seen when watching football and an incredible way to get another home win over the Patriots. The Dolphins just somehow find ways to win. They didn’t come out of the game unscathed though, Tannehill took a lot of hits and they’ll be sweating on his health. The Vikings are broken, they sacked their OC today, seemingly he’s the scapegoat for their form this year, but they’re a lot better at home and should have enough to beat the Dolphins. I don’t think it’ll be pretty, I wouldn’t take the spread – VIKINGS

Dalvin Cook (11/10 Ladbrokes) is the only one I’m looking for here, the sacking of the OC was mainly because they weren’t running the ball enough so I expect them to do that a lot more this week. His rush yards are around 60, 60.5 the lowest I can find on Skybet at 5/6.

Dalvin Cook anytime – 11/10 (Ladbrokes) – 2 points, Dalvin Cook o60.5 rush yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2 points

Green Bay Packers (+5) @ Chicago Bears: 45

The Bears showed the defense can win, racking up their 25th interception of the season last week against the Rams at a frigid Soldier field. Trubisky threw for 110 yards, an average of 3.67 per pass… PER PASS! They’re this years Jacksonville. They’ll get into the playoffs, and then lose to the Seahawks. The Packers kept their thin hopes of the post-season alive by killing the Falcons last week, Rodgers numbers weren’t great but he passed Brady with the most passes without an Interception and threw a beauty to Cobb for his second TD pass of the game. The Welshman did his job well on the ground as always as well. I can’t see past the Bears here really – CHICAGO

Not got a lot on this one either, first lean was the to the Bears D then I remembered that Rodgers has the most throws without INTs in history… The Bears run D is great, I can’t trust anyone in their passing game, their run game is mixed week to week. So not a lot betting wise for me… Although…. Kumerow 20/1… grand total of ZERO targets for him last week.

 Detroit Lions (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills: 38

101 yards for Matthew Stafford?! Awful. I think it’s safe to say they’re done for the season. The Bills are at least showing some fight with Josh Allen at RB, I mean QB… Shady McCoy is out for the Bills so Allen will be continuing his running role for them. If it’s not him then Ivory if fit, or maybe even Marcus Murphy at big odds depending on who plays on Sunday. I horrible game – BILLS

So, latest news suggest that Ivory is out, McCoy is a game-time decision. That means McCoy will play but who knows how long he’ll last. Marcus Murphy is still available at… well, was 20/1 but into 10/3 already… 9/1 on Betway is best price now. I do like however, Josh Allen rush yards, still set low in my eyes at 51.5 on Redzone and 365 (better odds on Redzone) he’s run for more in 3 consecutive games than any other QB in history and it seems the books are being slow in catching up on it. Nothing on the Lions, they stink.

Josh Allen o51.5 rush yards – 10/11 (RZ) – 2 points

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) @ Baltimore Ravens: 46.5

The Buccs played well for a half before a Winston knee injury and a blocked punt changed the entire game against the Saints. They’ll struggle this week on the road against a brilliant Ravens defense. In fact – RAVENS

Take Victors money bet of the night – Kenneth Dixon anytime – 5/2 on BetVictor

I’ve got no lean on anything with regards to props in this one, the Ravens D should be able to shut down most of what the Bucs want to do, and the Ravens are a team in transition, they seem to have proven year on year that they REALLY want Kenneth Dixon to be a thing, and last week they gave him the TD and quite a few carries against the Chiefs. Facing their 4th consecutive bottom 5 defense has really helped Jackson/Gus the bus and Dixon get the run game going.

 Arizona Cardinals (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons: 44

Battle of the butts. Falcons are at home – FALCONS.

I got nothing. This won’t be one I’ll be watching on gamepass. The Falcons have stalled out, the Cards defense is pretty good. In fact, I tell a lie, Rosen can’t be trusted at all especially on the road without Christian Kirk.

Atlanta D/ST – 11/2 (Skybet) – 1pt

Washington Redskins (+7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 36

Josh Johnson actually looked pretty good despite having now thrown a ball in the NFL for something like 7 years! He’s pretty much the only reason to even consider glancing at this game – JAGUARS

I’m not even sure this “match” will be recorded in the annals of the NFL. But “value” is “value” Josh Johnson is as low as 10/3 in places.

Josh Johnson anytime – 12/1 (365) – 1pt

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5  -3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: 44.5

The Seahawks own the 49ers in recent years and I can’t see that changing here, although I think the Niners will put up yards still as they did at the C-Link when they met a month ago. The run game will be the main facet for the Seahawks, Wilson threw for 72 yards last week and they still won the game. Chris Carson with another TD for them. The niners have been putting up yards, George Kittle with 210 and a TD last week! The Seahawks aren’t bad against that position though. Seahawks have won their last 4 games at the Levi stadium – SEAHAWKS, avoid the spread again.

Finally the better games get going again, after a lull in the write ups due to them being shit this one shouldn’t be too bad. The money has come on the 49ers somehow, it’s not all the way in to Seahawks -3.5. They have won 9 in a row against the 40ers, and while there has been a lot of streaks broken recently I just don’t see it. It looks like Breida, Goodwin and Pettis will all be starting for the Niners, so that’s Jeff Wilson out of the game plan. Probably. Nick Mullens threw over 400 yards against them a couple of weeks back and followed up with 300 against the Broncos, he’s set at 250 tonight. Chris Carson is back and Rashaad Penny is doubtful so should mean a lot for him. Tough one for props tbh.

 New England Patriots (-1 -2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 49 54

The usual bullplop has been coming out about Big Ben this week with his “Rib” “Injury” apparently hampering. Whatever Pittsburgh, everyone in the world knows he’s going to play and put up a good game. They may have James Conner back but I’m not as convinced by that news, if not Samuels and Ridley will both be used again if last week is anything to go by, and and Antonio Brown was out targeted by Juju last week, so cue him moaning and getting a ton of targets. The Pats though own the Steelers in recent years, they played well for long periods last week in Miami and know that a win here will practically get them homefield for the playoffs. Who knows who will score for them though, maybe James Develin again. Should be a great game, hopefully decided by a dodgy call against the Steelers. That always cheers me up – PATRIOTS

So it seems that Connor will be out, he’s been downgraded to doubtful. There was very good odds on Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley earlier in the week but that’s pretty much gone now at 6/4 and 4s respectively. I’ve got a weird feeling that Grimble or Nix might score tonight, weird things happen in big games like this. Big Ben should be throwing a lot in what should be a high scoring game, he’s 304.5 on PP. I think Juju will get more than AB, his pace will help against the Pats. From the Pats side… the Steelers are pretty good against pass catching backs, so I think it’ll be a Sony Michel game (6/5 RZ) – Josh Gordon has been looking better and better as the weeks go on, he’s 9/4 to score tonight (WillHill) and Gronks stats vs the Steelers are very impressive as well – He has 39 receptions for 664 yards and eight touchdowns in six games against the Steelers. 13/10 is short on him, but 54.5 rec. yards on PP looks good. I have no idea which I’ll be going for as there’s a lot to choose from here. Should be a great game.

Rob Gronkowski o54.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (PP) – 2 points. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+9 +12.5) @ Los Angeles Rams: 52

Carson Wentz’ knees revenge game! He won them the game here last year but cost himself the season and hasn’t really looked the same since then. They are still horrible beaten up on defense and that will allow the Rams WRs, now back in warmer climbs, to have their own way, Goff finished with a 6.2 QBR last week, I expect that to be around 20 times better this week! I can see them putting up 40 in this one after the disappointment against the Bears – RAMS

So Wentz is out, the line has gone from 9 to 12.5 now, the total has dropped a couple of points on that news as well. I can see the Rams putting up a lot of points tonight against a beating up Eagles secondary coming off a couple of poor performances on the road over the last few weeks. 5/2 on Betfred for Josh Reynolds about the only half decent odds I can see here tbh. Jared Goff 285.5 pass yards on PP looks good, it’s 295 on Sky, 300 on 365.


Summary –

Player props – All 2 pts each on these fellas

  • Zeke Elliott o40.5 rec. yards – 20/23 (RZ) 
  • Anthony Firkser o31.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP) 
  • Dalvin Cook o60.5 rush yards – 5/6 (Skybet)
  • Josh Allen o51.5 rush yards – 10/11 (RZ) 
  • Rob Gronkowski o54.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (PP) 

TD Scorers – 

  • Mo Alie-Cox – 10/1 (365) – 1pt
  • Dalvin Cook – 11/10 (Ladbrokes) – 2pts
  • Kenneth Dixon – 5/2 (TAKE VICTORS MONEY BET) – 2pts
  • Atlanta D/ST – 11/2 (Skybet) – 1pt
  • Josh Johnson – 12/1 (365) – 1pt

17 points total outlay.

 

Good Luck with whatever you’re on! I have no idea what to put my £350 free bet from Redzone on! Leaning to the Seahawks +3.5 but always risking backing against the money! If only I could split it up.

Remember the Draftkings league – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/66230609

As always thanks for reading, listening to the @Full10yards podcast on Fridays and the interaction on twitter! Always appreciated!

Adam.

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