What a weird night in the NFL. I had 2 choices for my £350 free bet from Redzone, and naturally chose the wrong one, plumping for Zeke and Fournette instead of Mixon and Carson – Zeke shut out, and Fournette only gets 1 carry in the second half. Marvellous. Gronk was shut down by the Steelers in a Belichick-ian move by that clown Tomlin.
Seahawks lost, Rams lost, Dallas shut out, I believe for the first time in 15 years. Not great on the betting front but the Falcons D scoring at 11/2 helped get us in slight profit, thankfully Dalvin Cook paid off by scoring and topping his yards target. Zeke got there by half a yard as well. The Josh Allen bet was nowhere near, half because all his RBs died and half because the Lions are surprisingly good against rushing QBs.
I have no idea what Firkser did to piss off the guys in Tennessee though. Zero targets.
MNF: New Orleans Saints (-6) @ Carolina Panthers: 50.5
A month ago this game would have been brilliant, but both teams have been struggling in recent weeks, the Panthers especially with Cam Newton having a shoulder injury that seems to have effected him badly. The one guy to look for on their side of the ball is Christian McCaffrey who should have had 3 last week after having one reversed, he still scored 2 taking him to 8 in the last 5 games. He should do more through the air than on the ground in this one as the Saints run D is pretty good. In fact, Samuel, Moore and Thomas should all get yards this week.
Samuel should have a good game his line is lowest at 45.5 on 365, I’d expect McCaffrey to have to do more in the passing game than on the ground, the Saints have a great run defense, he’s at around 55 for receiving yards, that’s a touch too high for me in all fairness. That’s about it for them really, the issues with Cams shoulder and their recent form worries me, although they have out-gained their opponents in each of their last 4 losses, so from a gambling perspective you expect these things to even out. Cam has thrown at least 1 INT in his last 5 games. He’s 5/9 on Redzone to repeat that tonight.
The Saints have been stumbling recently, fair enough against the Cowboys, but last week they should have been easily beating the Buccs yet it took a Taysom Hill punt block to swing momentum and they killed them in the second half. Kamara didn’t seem to get many goal line carries for some reason, the passing game has been sloppy, the run game not much better.
I haven’t checked the Saints record but I’d imagine they’ve been outgained in their last 3 games as they’ve been pretty crap recently on offense, frankly. I think it’s just a blip, but I thought that about the Rams and they got humiliated by a backup QB led Eagles last night. It makes me want to leave everything on their offense alone, but seeing as the Panthers are one of the worst in the league vs slot receivers makes me want to go on Michael Thomas, he’s still caught 102 of 118 targets this year but recent weeks have been weird blips, although he was up into double digit receptions again last week, ending the game on 98 yards. His yards are high 80s. The random TDs for Kirkwood, Zach Line, Dan Arnold et al have thrown me for a loop on the Saints to be honest.
I would lean to the Panthers covering the spread and unders on the total, but the way things have gone over the last few days I’m not sure I’ll be anywhere near getting this one correct.
- Curtis Samuel o45.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (365) – 2pt
- Cam Newton o0.5 INT – 5/9 (RZ) – 2pt
- Samuel and Ingram both to score – 13/2 (Skybet) – 1pt