SAT – Redskins (+11) @ Titans: 37
Not the most enticing Saturday night affairs again, and this should be a fairly routine home win for the Titans. Especially if Derrick Henry carries on his random cold weather streak. Worth noting if you think the Redskins will cover then take them and the unders rather than just them. They won’t score much so for them to cover it will have to be a drab matchup – TITANS.
Honestly there’s not a whole lot to talk about in this game, the Titans have a very good home record, and the Redskins have been decimated by injury. Money seems to have come on the Titans -10 as it’s out to -11 in some places! – They gave the ball almost entirely to Derrick Henry last week, he finished with 170 yards from 33 carries, most of them in the first half, meaning that Mariota finished with a meagre 88 yards from 12 completions. Might be why our Firkser bet went to shit. It makes this week difficult to bet on anything other than Henry carries/yards especially as they’ll likely have a positive game script which generally lends itself to running the ball a lot! 79.5 is his line at Redzone, 83 at Sky and in the middle at 81 on 365. He’s set at 17.5 carries on 365 as well. I think he’ll probably top those lines but this last 2 weeks has so hugely skewed his entire season stats I just can’t bring myself to bet on it.
I think I’m leaning to Taywan Taylor going over 35.5 at 20/21 on Redzone, and I’ll give my boy Firkser another go at getting over 16.5 rec. yards on Skybet as well.
Given the lack of expected points for the Redskins there’s some big prices on their guys. Michael Floyd is at 25/1 on 365. had his highest snaps of the season last week and with a lot of their pass catchers ruled out probably worth a tiny nibble, and it may be worth Sprinkling a little cash on the starting tight end at 17/2 on BetVictor (cunts)
Anthony Firkser o16.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2pts, Michael Floyd anytime – 25/1 (365) – 0.5 pt.
SAT – Ravens (+4) @ Chargers: 42.5
Now THIS game… This could be a cracker. The Ravens have already traveled West to take the Chiefs to overtime, now they get to take on the Chargers in what could be one of the few home games for them that might actually feel like a home game! A stand-alone prime-time game after beating their rivals last week should draw in the crowds. Anyway, a tough defense with a great running game, against a good defense with a good running game (Melvin Gordon should be back this week, hopefully leading me to a Fantasy championship) but a brilliant QB… I think the Chargers win but the Ravens will keep it close so I won’t be taking anything on the spread – CHARGERS
The unders has had money here, and a little on the Ravens on the spread, the total has dropped 2 points since Thursday night.
So, a far better prospect here. Melvin Gordon will play, it seems Keenan Allen is going to give it a go as well despite his hip injury, although he is a game-time decision which is rough for us when it’s a 120am match in the UK. Ravens are 3rd in the league in rush defense, the Chargers 9th, that makes it tough to look at any RB on either team, but Gordon is very good and can do it through the air as well, they are also still without Ekeler leaving Justin Jackson as the back-up, he did pretty well last week in fairness 5/2 anytime for JJ is too short for me though. Kenneth Dixon is 9/4 at PP, he actually out-snapped Gus the bus last week, while TY Montgomery is firmly on the outside now he’s back with 0 offensive snaps last week. No point looking at the Baltimore passing game really, however the lack of it has meant some big prices on pass catchers, and the fact they play 15 Tight ends means they’re all fairly big prices as well. I remain convinced that MAndrews is the one to be on when looking for one of them to score a TD. He’s 14/1 along with MaxXXXX Williams and Hayden Hurst, Nick Boyle is at 20s. Mandrews at 18.5 rec. yards in various places is a teaser for me as well. ARGH. – You’ve got to think the Chargers will have a spy on Lamar Jackson to stop him rushing, it’s easier said than done but that’s the key to the game for me (He’s at 66.5 rush yards on PP, which is less than he’s got in every game so far) – If you want a crazy big priced guy the Chris Moore seems to have got involved, er… Moore recently and scored last week against the Buccs, he’s 20/1 on 365.
You can get evens on Antonio Gates o20.5 rec. yards for the Chargers which is another that’s temptingly low, he got that on his first catch last week against the Chiefs. He used to play basketball don’t you know… But at 38 he’s a tough one to get right. Same with the Williams brothers frankly. With Allen out last week Mike got the TDs, but Tyrell got a lot of targets and usually has more snaps than the former. He’s at 38.5 yards pretty much everywhere and I’ve got to take the overs on him really. Mike Williams is 45.5 everywhere. He’s obviously more of a TD threat but I feel Tyrell is more viable for yards. Obviously if it turns out Keenan Allen doesn’t play then both are probably good shouts. In fact if Allen is out then Mike Williams o3.5 receptions at 11/10 on 365 is a great shout.
Tyrell Williams o38.5 rec. yards – various best priced at Redzone – 20/21 – 2 points, Mark Andrews anytime – 14/1 (Skybet) – 2 points, Mark Andrews o18.5 rec. yards – 2 points.
I’d usually just go for 1 point on Mandrews, but it’s a big standout price as he’s 10s at 365, but between 7/2 and 7/1 in most other places.
So for the night –
- Anthony Firkser o16.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2pt
- Michael Floyd anytime – 25/1 (365) – 0.5 pt.
- Tyrell Williams o38.5 rec. yards – various best priced at Redzone – 20/21 – 2 points,
- Mark Andrews anytime – 14/1 (Skybet) – 2 points
- Mark Andrews o18.5 rec. yards – various, but best priced – 10/11 (PP)- 2 points.
I’ll be honest, the Titans ones are more for a bit of interest while watching than anything else, it’s probably more sensible to just give that game a miss, but fuck it, I won’t be betting much on it.
As always remember the ESPN pigskin pick’em if you’re still doing it.
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And of course, check back here tomorrow when I put up the full Sunday write ups!
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