It’s the most wonderful time of the year! The Superbowl is here and the LA Rams and the NE Patriots get to fight it out to become WORLD Champions. The previous 266 games have all been leading to this point, and I have to consider what I’m going to do with my Sundays for the next 6 months or so. Hopefully we’ll go out on a bang. It should be a cracking game and well worth staying up for, and on the plus side you can take a 30 min powernap at half time instead of watching Maroon 5.
Bit of house-keeping first – I put up my stupid punts post during the week – Novelty Superbowl Punts! You won’t be shocked to see I haven’t tipped anything, but it’s a bit of fun for the coin toss, the anthem, half time and all that.
Thanks to Gordon Currie for the picture again this year, he does some great digital graphics work and well worth giving him a shout if you want anything doing!
I’ve been collating the yards from various bookies – Player yards which should help anyone out who wants to know where to get the best yards for a player. This is vital for a game like this, there’s so much variation in yards that you need to make sure you shop around for the best line depending on your lean! Earlier in the week you could have got o80.5 and u98.5 on Edelman!
Free competition for you all to enter, haven’t had too many at the time I write this, so you’re in with a good chance of winning at the moment! Superbowl LIII Competition time
Redzone are running a £1,000,000 comp which requires an account but not a deposit, they are best priced on a couple of my bets though, if you haven’t got an account you can sign up through my link here – Redzone £1,000,000 signup
With about 500 markets available on this game there will be more props than usual! There’s just so much to go through and I won’t be betting again until the draft, so expect quite a high stake amount for this one-off night!
A couple of things, if you like the Over on the total, it could be best to wait for the end of the 1st quarter given the stats in Patriots Superbowls recently.
Be wary backing a QB rush yards, kneel downs at the end of the game are counted as minus yards for the QB, so if Brady has 4 yards during the game, kneels 3 times you’ll be ending on 2 yards. Always a little bit of a risk.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams probably shouldn’t be here after one of the most obvious missed calls in recent times denied the Saints on their final drive. The Saints still had the ball first in overtime and literally threw away their chances, but it shouldn’t have got that far. And to anger NOLA supporters even more the NFL fined Robey-Coleman for the shot that stopped Tommylee Lewis gaining that crucial third down. – Of course if the Saints had run the damn ball on 1st and 2nd down instead of throwing it to the feet of their receivers they would have cost the Rams their time outs and won the game anyway. Sucks to be them.
Goff had struggled with the noise at the start of the game last week, but fair play to him he rose to the occasion and finished the game the stronger of the QBs, he’ll need to start quicker this week as he finds himself horribly “out-experienced” once more. Goff now has the biggest discrepancy in yards, 272.5 on Redzone, up to 289.5 on Skybet.
McVay has said during the week that they need to figure out how to get Todd Gurley the ball more… Well, yeah. He scored 21 TDs in the regular season yet got 5 touches in the entire game vs the Saints, I’d say getting the ball in his hands would be a good idea, he didn’t help himself by costing them a turnover early on and has admitted he had a poor game. But he claims he’s fully fit so I’d imagine he’ll get more of the ball this week. CJ Anderson has been, and was the hot hand last week, he looked better than his numbers show in the championship game and has won the Superbowl before.
Robert Woods is arguably the most reliable WR in the league from a numbers stand-point, you can practically guarantee he’ll get between 60 and 75 yards from 6 or 7 receptions per game, he did however come up short of that last time, with half the yards from 6 receptions, and he’ll probably get a lot of JC Jackson who has been great at slot corner for the Pats since getting into the team, so it won’t be easy for him this week. Brandin Cooks gives the deep ball option and broke the Saints back with a deep catch last week after being generally held in check. The Pats generally try to stop what they feel is the most dangerous weapon, I believe that they will keep Cooks in front of them this weekend making it a tough revenge game for him this weekend. Josh Reynolds will again be the third guy and he was agonisingly close to scoring the TD that I needed from him last week, falling half a yard short on a couple of occasions but he was there when needed in big moments, and I can see him having a similar role this week as well.
The Rams played over 90% 3 WR sets during the regular season but switched that up last week going with 2 TEs on the field on a number of occasions when trying to get Anderson going, it meant there were more chances for the tight ends to make catches and Everett had a couple of decent gains in the mid-passing game for 50 yards. Higbee caught 4 passes as well. They’re tough to get on the right day, and if they go more Gurley in this game which they should, then I’d assume they’ll return to the 3 WR sets.
The Rams have the defense MVP, Aaron Donald who is a phenom. He had 20.5 sacks in the regular season despite the stats saying he’s had no sacks in the post-season he, Suh and Brockers caused no end of issues for the Saints last week. They’ll do well to get pressure on Brady who very nearly escaped completely untouched from his game vs the Chiefs last week. he gets rid of the ball too damn quick. Those three blocking up the middle of the park should slow the run game, the linebackers got gashed by Kamara out of the backfield last week, but Corey Littleton made a lot of tackles (he’s at 8.5 in most places), Dante Fowler too was all over the place and the pressure he got on Brees caused the (essentially) game-winning interception for the Rams. They looked far better with Aqib Talib back there. They’re a solid unit all round despite the stats suggesting they aren’t very good vs the run.
- Rams to rush for o1.5 TDs – 2/1 (Betfred)
- Todd Gurley o29.5 rec. yards – 8/11 (RZ)
- Josh Reynolds yards o46.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (RZ – anything below 50 is fine)
- Hekker Shortest punt o36.5 yards – 5/6 (PP)
- Most penalties against the Rams – 8/11 (PP)
New England Patriots
Tom Brady is done. He’s old and slow, he’s done. Well, that’s what we may have believed for most of the season anyway. Turns out he’s still rather good at what he does, he doesn’t have the arm talent of the young bucks, but his pocket movement is second to none. It helps that he has a line that works in perfect synchronicity with him, and the unit as a whole has been remarkable in all honesty. Officially he had 1… ONE pressure last week against the Chiefs, no official hits. ONE PRESSURE. That’s ridiculous. And it was similar against one of the better pass rushes in the league against the Chargers the week before. The Rams are another formidable pass rush. especially up the middle where Brady is the weakest so once again this battle will be a key matchup.
I think, THINK, it will be another James White game á la the divisional round where he had 15 receptions. I don’t think he’ll hit that again, but if the Rams can bring pressure up the middle, which they should be able to with the rushers they’ve got then he may well have to dump off a lot to White, the quick passing game has been one of the key reasons he’s come through games untouched. Sony Michel has gone over 100 yards in both of the post-season games they’ve had this year and it’s been a very fruitful game script for them. It does help that they were up 14 points at half time last week enabling them to keep running Michel, he’s had a rookie record 5 TDs in the playoffs this year. If he can’t get it done then I guess they can turn to Rex Burkhead who scored the game-winner last week, finishing with 2 TDs, 41 yards on 12 carries. – They have a few very good options, Burkhead also had 4 receptions. Oh, then there’s James Develin as well who gets the odd bit of work in short yardage situations as a full back, and surprisingly had a catch in 7 of 11 regular season games. He’ll probably be on the field the most of all the RBs as an essential part of the run game.
The passing game runs largely through Julian Edelman who, as always has stepped up in crunch time. 16 receptions and 248 yards in their 2 games, and a lot of them were on key 3rd downs last week down the stretch. The overtime drive especially showed who Brady likes to use when push comes to shove. Edelman, Gronk and Burkhead were the three guys with completions on that drive. A lot of us also thought that Gronk was quietly on his way out of the league as he had been mainly used as a blocking tight end, there was always a bit of me that thought that was a ploy to confuse us, and it proved so as he had 79 yards from 6 receptions last week. I have no idea how he’ll be used this week but he usually steps up in Superbowls so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him top 50 yards again. Philip Dorsett only had 1 receptions last week, while Chris Hogan finally had a little bit more of the ball, 45 from 5 receptions and he was targeted on that game-winning drive. As was my boy Cordarelle Patterson, 2 catches from 4 targets in the passing game last week, he’s the usual kick returner as well, although Edelman mixes in there on occasion.
The defense is better than the sum of its parts as it always is, Brian Flores, soon to be Miami Dolphins head coach has done a great job with them. Stephon Gilmore is a very good cornerback, I’d imagine he’ll be on Cooks for the most part, the McCourty twins have had good seasons, and they are able to rush the passer whilst not really having any stellar pass rushers. Trey Flowers has looked great in the post season, just the 1 sack in each game but the he has provided a lot of pressure.
- Patriots o1.5 rushing TDs – 13/8 (Betfred)
- James White o5.5 receptions at 4/5 on 365
- (Skybet have o7.5 as an option too)
- Cordarelle Patterson anytime – 7/1 (365)
- Cordarelle Patterson 2 or more – 100/1 (365)
- James Develin o1.5 rush yards – 6/4 (365)
- First Patriots offensive play – Run – 11/10 (PP)
Will Brady get some sneaks? You can take him o0.5 rush yards, both on Bet365. One worry with Brady is that kneel downs count as minus rush yards, so be wary on that one. So I’ll be avoiding that one.
So that’s the team bets, a couple of general ones I like.
The Patriots have scored 3 whole points in the first quarter of all 8 of the Belichick/Brady Superbowls COMBINED. So u10.5 1st quarter points looks like it’s a sensible bet. – Likewise 3rd Quarter to be higher scoring the the 1st for the same reasons, although you won’t get rich at 5/8 and 4/7 respectively on them.
- First quarter u10.5 points – 5/8 (365)
Very similar to above, but with a little more breathing space, the second half to be higher scoring the first, with the Pats generally slow scoring in their Superbowls you have to expect the second to be higher, well all know what happened vs Atlanta and the Eagles in their last 2.
- Highest scoring half – 2nd half – 10/11 (PP)
The opening kick off NOT to be a touchback is pretty good odds. Gostkowski for the Patriots is told specifically to kick it short of the end zone, if they kick off then I think they’ll allow a return – 13/8 on Paddypower.
- Opening kickoff NOT to be a touchback – 13/8 (PP)
Will there be a 2pt attempt? These two teams are both aggressive especially the Rams and if it comes down to them trying to get a little bit more of a lead then I can see there being an attempt of a 2 points conversion.
- Will there be a 2pt conversion attempt? – Yes – 5/4 (PP)
Both kickers can convert from inside their own half, and it’s in a dome where long field goals are par for the course, you can get a decent line on longest field goal scored at 365.
- Longest field goal – o44.5 yards – 4/5 (365)
Both teams like to the run the ball, the Patriots especially have been running the ball a lot at the moment, and after the championship games last week I think the Refs will be under a little pressure to make sure they’re calling Defensive pass interference, if there’s one in the end zone then the ball is placed at the 1 yard line.
- Shortest touchdown distance – u1.5 yards – 8/11 (365)
Both teams have used multiple passers during the season, Edelman has thrown for the Patriots, Hekker threw the ball last game for the Rams on the fake punt.
- Players with a pass attempt – o2.5 – 1/1 (Redzone)
Summary –
It’s a great matchup, and one I can’t call straight away, neither can the books, they opened with the Rams as 1 point favourites, but very quickly that moved to pick, and then the Patriots giving points all the way up to -3 in places. 8/11 available on Rams +3 in places. That’s a key number and one which sways my thinking, gun to my head I’d probably take Rams +3, Patriots -2.5. – Between 75+% of the Money has been backing the Patriots, and seemingly the unders, with the total dropping all week long as well. I have no sway on that at all, this could be a strong defensive game but equally the offenses are perfectly capable of putting up 50 points each.
I think the Patriots win, I won’t be betting on either side, and I don’t think I’ll be betting a match total either it’s all a little too balanced for me, but the experience of the Patriots opposed to the Rams sways it their way for me.
Gun to my head I’d say Patriots, Cover the spread, over on the total, MVP is Brady. Boring I know.
Final score? 31-24 to the Pats. All scores are 100/1 on Skybet and between 66/1 and 200/1 on Betfred by the look of it (80/1 for this one), not sure there’s anyone else doing correct scores
I’m on the below for 2 points per bet unless stated –
- Rams to rush for o1.5 TDs – 2/1 (Betfred)
- Todd Gurley o29.5 rec. yards – 8/11 (RZ)
- Josh Reynolds yards o46.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (RZ – anything below 50 is fine)
- Hekker Shortest punt o36.5 yards – 5/6 (PP)
- Most penalties against the Rams – 8/11 (PP) – 1pt
- Patriots o1.5 rushing TDs – 13/8 (Betfred)
- James White o5.5 receptions – 4/5 (365) – Also 7.5 on Sky if you want bigger odds
- Cordarelle Patterson anytime – 7/1 (365)
- Cordarelle Patterson 2 or more – 100/1 (365) – 0.5 points
- James Develin o1.5 rush yards – 6/4 (365) – 1pt
- First Patriots offensive play – Run – 11/10 (PP) – 1pt
- First quarter u10.5 points – 5/8 (365)
- Highest scoring half – 2nd half – 10/11 (PP) – 4 points
- Opening kickoff NOT to be a touchback – 13/8 (PP)
- Will there be a 2pt conversion attempt? – Yes – 5/4 (PP/Skybet)
- Longest field goal – o44.5 yards – 4/5 (365)
- Shortest touchdown distance – u1.5 yards – 8/11 (365) – 1pt
- Players with a pass attempt – o2.5 – 1/1 (Redzone) – 1pt
OK, that’s a hell of a lot to bet on. 32 points staked by myself, only £5 a point though
I will probably do a request a bet post over the weekend as well as I’m sure I’ll be on quite a few of them but there’s far too many to dig through and it would have cluttered this post even more than it already is.
Good luck with whatever you’re on, good luck, and enjoy the game!
Adam.
Oh… I’ll sort out a small, probably 10 person Draftkings league for the weekend as well
TouchdownTips 