Week 3 – SNF – Previews and Betting tips #NFL100

Buffalo Bills (-6) v Cincinnati Bengals: 43.5

Who are these teams? The Bills sit at 2-0 after two wins in the Metlife stadium in New York (Incidentally they could be the winningest team in that stadium this year) after beating the Jets and the Giants, neither look to be powerhouses in the game but they showed fight in beating the Jets and comfortably overcame the Giants with Eli.

This isn’t the hardest test in the world either; The Bengals looked great in the opener in Seattle and pretty much dominated that game but they came back to Cincinnati and utterly flopped last week against the 49ers. They looked awful. The running game has been atrocious with any big gain being negated by holding calls but I’m confident it will come right eventually. Andy Dalton has attempted 93 passes so far, mainly to Boyd and John Ross. Ross has 3 in 2 games with over 100 yards in each game.

The Bills are without change of pace back Devin Singletary who has looked good in limited work. That means that TJ Yeldon probably steps into that position. Frank Gore is still plugging on and Josh Allen should be able to find the end zone  for the third game running this week (best priced 2.0 at Unibet/888). The Bills defense is one of the best units in the league especially up front.

Bills should win this, It’s not one I want to bet on though, the Bengals have confused me so far, and are capable of putting up points. Auden Tate is a big price for the Bengals, he had a redzone target last week.

John Ross o41.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (365)

Dallas Cowboys (-22) v Miami Dolphins: 47

The Cowboys are 4 score favourites, but is it enough against a Dolphins team which is actively throwing away their season? Probably not. They lost 42-0 last week to the Pats and the Cowboys have looked really good so far this season.

The Dolphins are setting Josh Rosen to the Lions this week by starting him behind one of the worst offensive lines the league has seen. That’s about it for the Dolphins.

The Cowboys should deal with this comfortably enough, the worry will be them pulling starters in the 4th quarter. All their players are in with a chance of scoring and the odds reflect it. The news on them is that Michael Gallup misses out with injury, so Devin Smith who scored last week will be starting alongside Cooper and Cobb. Jason Witten leads the team in redzone targets and has a TD in each game so far, he’s 2/1 (3.00) to score again this week.

If I was forced to pick a Dolphin to score it would be Preston Williams at 17/2 (8.5) at Skybet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re shut out again to be honest.

I actually think the Cowboys will cover the spread, but the points will go under.

Ezekiel Elliott u22.5 rush attempts 1.87 – Unibet/888

With the possibility of Zeke getting pulled they have no need to give him 23 rush attempts, they may take it as a chance to get Pollard some extra game time.

Green Bay Packers (-7) v Denver Broncos: 43

The Packers looked great for 16 minutes last week, taking a 21-0 lead against the Vikings, but again fell off in the second half, they’ve only had 3 points in the second half of both games combined so far. They really should have lost last week.

The Broncos lost to a last minute heart-breaker at home in Mile High. They had marched up the field well but couldn’t convert chances into touchdowns against a tough Bears defense.

Matt LeFluer, the Packers coach said this week that he’ll continue to mix Jamaal Williams into the rushing game for them, he and Aaron Jones have been splitting snaps although Jones is the far better rusher and finished with 116 from 23 attempts last week. Beyond Davante Adams the passing game is tough to call, neither MVS and Geronimo Allison are separating themselves as the two which makes it tough. I do think Adams is overdue a TD though.

Joe Flacco looks to have found his favourite guy though, Emmanuel Sanders leads the league in redzone targets through 2 games. He’s had 20 targets in two weeks turning that into 184 yards and 2 TDs. He and Sutton have been putting up yards while they’ve not been converting to points very well so far. The backfield is messy, Royce Freeman and Philip Lindsay sharing it. Freeman looked better last week for what it’s worth. The tight end Noah Fant has 29 and 33 yards in their games so far.

Packers should win, and probably cover but it’s another spread I’m not confident on at all. I’d lean unders too but it’s a low line.

Noah Fant o25.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Paddypower)

Indianapolis Colts (-1) v Atlanta Falcons: 47

I’m not entirely sure what to make of either of these teams. The Colts have done pretty well after losing Andrew Luck before the season, the offensive line has proved as good as expected and Jacoby Brissett has done an adequate job at QB. The Falcons haven’t got going as yet, especially the run game which is really struggling, but fought to a win against a beaten up Eagles team last week.

Marlon Mack has been questionable all week but looks like he’ll be fine to go for the Colts; He’s had a ton of carries already 25 and 20. The passing game looks like it’s going mainly through TY Hilton which makes sense given him talent. He has never topped 7 TDs in a season but sits on 3 after 2 games, so make of that what you will. Deon Cain and Parris Campbell are both pretty well priced to score, both at 8/1 on Betfair. I was on Cain last week who didn’t make a catch while Campbell got himself a TD.

Julio Jones won the game for the Falcons last week taking a screen to the house, but Matt Ryan called that play on the field and I still rate him as one of the best QBs in the league. Julio and Ridley have been effective in both games so far and both have scored in both games they’ve played this season. Their defense hasn’t been amazing and the run game has struggled, but with last years tackle-leader Darrius Leonard missing out for the Colts they could try and get it going this weekend.

Obviously another tough one, I’d lean to the home team Colts and probably the over.

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Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) v Baltimore Ravens: 52

This was KC -7 and 55 pts earlier in the week.

By far the GAME OF THE WEEK. This game is going to tell us a lot about the Ravens and whether they’re for real or not. They battled it out last year in a game which swung wildly and ended 27-24 to the Chiefs in overtime. It was one of the best games of the season and this one promises to be even better. I’m gonna dig into this one.

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is amazing. He is the only player in the league who can make some of the passes that he makes on a regular basis and it makes him near impossible to defend against, he can make them off-balance, on the run, across his body. If you’re open somewhere on the field he’s able to fire the ball straight into you. Two games into the season he’s on 821 yards and 7 TDs. On target for 6,500+ yards and 56 TDs. Fucking ridiculous. Last week was a weird one though, they scored their entire 28 points in the second quarter. His line is set at 317.5 and I’m still tempted to take the over. He threw for 377 in the game vs a better Baltimore defense last year.

The best thing about this Mahomes offense as a team is that he doesn’t have one target, literally if someone is open he’ll find them and with the pace they’ve got in that offense players often get themselves open. Last week without Tyreek Hill it was a Demarcus Robinson game, he finished with 172-2 hauling in all 6 of his targets. I don’t expect that to repeat at all, but it was a hell of a performance. The man I thought would lead the team in yards was Mecole Hardman and in fairness had it not been for a called back play he would have been up there, he finished with a measly 61 yards and a TD. It would have been 120ish without the penalty. The bulk of the targets have been going to Sammy Watkins though, despite only 49 yards he finished last week with 13 targets after 11 in week one. And all of this is without mentioning the best tight end in the league, Travis Kelce who went over 100 yards and got himself a TD last week.

The backfield is beaten up for the Chiefs this time around though, Damien Williams is out with injury and Shady McCoy has a knock but I’d expect him to be the main man still. Behind him are Darrell Williams (11) and Darwin Thompson (3.3); a lot of people want the rookie to get a lot of the ball but it seems more likely to me that Darrell will get first go if carries/catches are going begging back there and at 10/1 he’s probably worth a go opposed to the 23/10 or so for the kid.

The Chiefs have improved on defense this year as they realise they’ve got to be better there to make a run at the Superbowl and are sitting about mid-league in most categories, that’s about all they need to do to make this a team who wins most weeks.

Ravens

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have impressed most with the way they started the season; We all knew that Jackson was great with his feet and had a decent arm, but we didn’t really know how accurate he could be. Whether he’s throwing bombs to one of the quickest guys in the league, or throwing game icing touch passes to the sideline he’s been great at all facets so far. Honestly, he’s looked great. My ONLY and main Caveat is that it was against the worst team in NFL history and the Cardinals secondary without their two best cornerbacks. It gives me a little bit of pause. I probably should have mentioned him rushing ability too, he didn’t need to in week 1, but week 2 he rushed for 120 yards from 16 attempts. he had 14 rush attempts in the game between these two last season.

I think most of us thought the Ravens offense would be predicated on a dominant run game and while it’s been very good it hasn’t been the be all and end all for this team. Mark Ingram has come in and taken the majority of the load so far, 27 attempts for 154 yards. Justice Hill and Gus Edwards have mixed in well. I was high on Justice Hill in pre-season and it seemed he’d be getting a decent role in this offense but as yet that hasn’t materialised.

The passing game runs mainly through their tight end MAndrews, Mark Andrews has been a beast so far this year, 8 catches, 100+ yards and a TD in each of their first two games and if he’s good to go (he is back in practise) then he’s one to target this week especially at 11/4 (3.75 on betfair) The Chiefs typically struggle against TE as well. Their WRs have lit up the league so far as well. We all knew Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown was lightning quick and he’s shown that with a line of 147 and 2 from 4 catches, off of just 14 snaps against Miami, and 86 from 8 last week including the catch that sealed it down the far sideline. They’ll probably be hoping for a bit more from Miles Boykin who is highly rated by a lot of people.

The roster building and coaching from the Ravens has been frustratingly brilliant since they drafted Lamar. They know what he can do and they gave him the players to be able to do it. If you stop the run he’ll beat you deep with the pace they’ve got. If you stop that they’ll run the ball.

This game is a real litmus test for the Ravens. They’re going up against the best offense there is. I’m surprisingly excited to watch this one!

Patrick Mahomes o317.5 passing yards – 1.83 (365) 315.5 on PP now, Darrell Williams anytime – 10/1 (William Hill) – 1 pt, Mark Andrews anytime – 3.75 (Betfair 5/2 on PP)

Minnesota Vikings (-8.5) v Oakland Raiders: 42.5

This one may be a little shorter. The Vikings should have come back and won last week against the Packers but Cousins inability to beat good teams in crunch time reared it’s head. The Raiders will have taken heart from keeping the Chiefs scoreless for 3 of the 4 quarters last week, but they only scored in the first quarter of that game themselves.

Kirk Cousins is getting paid a lot of guaranteed money and as yet still isn’t able to beat good teams and frequently bottles it in the crunch. He threw an interception on 1st down with a few mins left on the clock last week to essentially lose the game for his team. In fairness he did find Diggs twice for TDs, one of which was wrongly (in my eyes) overturned and it would have looked different were it not for that.

Thielen was once again his favourite target, with Diggs getting more of the splash plays. Chad Bebbe could be worth a look as the WR3 although 11/2 (6.5) isn’t worth it in my eyes.

The man to look for, once again is Dalvin Cook, he’s looked great this season and hopefully he’s finally over his injury woes, if he plays the whole season he could well lead the league in rushing yards after another big performance last week 154 and a TD on the ground, 37 through the air. He’s been brilliant.

The Raiders have been all right since the AB fiasco hit over the summer. They’re about what most expected of them, not pulling up any trees, but not horrible. Derek Carr is who he is, Josh Jacobs has looked great but is questionable for this one. Darren Waller is the main man in the passing game, the tight end has 70 and 63 yards in the first two. Tyrell Williams is the main WR and has put up decent numbers as well. The rookie Hunter Renfrow had a lot of targets last week as well but they were all short yardage.

The Vikings home record under Mike Zimmer is one of the best in the league both SU and ATS and I’d expect that to continue this week. Vikings win and cover. I can’t take Cook at 1.62 but he will probably score again. Depending on team news keep an eye on Jalen Richard at 7.5 (13/2) and Deandre Washington at 13.0 (12/1)

New England Patriots (-21) v New York Jets: 43

Not too much needed on this one, the Patriots covered a 20 point spread last week, and look to do the same this weekend against a severely weakened NY Jets side on their third string QB, possibly missing CJ Mosley and Quinnen Williams again.

Antonio Brown played one game for the Patriots before being cut for being a dick. He needs someone in his life to stop him making ridiculous decisions and there doesn’t seem to be anyone willing to do that for him. You can claim CTE/Concussion, but maybe he’s just an egotistical prick with no concern for anyone else? Or maybe it’s the Madden Curse. Either way, I hope he’s done for good.

That bounces back Gordon and Edelman but you’d imagine this will be fairly run heavy with Michel getting another decent dose of carries.

Luke Falk starts for the Jets, he heavily targeted Leveon Bell last week who had demanded 30 touches a game and last week achieved that number. I’ve got to think that will be the general gameplan again this week, short passes to Bell and Crowder as the QB gets overwhelmed.

I’m not sure the Patriots cover this one, they didn’t try to run the score up last week but two defensive scores added the points. The Jets aren’t TRYING to tank their season so they’ll put up more fight than the Dolphins did.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) v Detroit Lions: 45.5

Interesting. Very interesting. Handicap has come in from 7, total down 2 pts as well. This is an interesting matchup. The Eagles are beaten up after a loss in Atlanta last week, the Lions won a hard fought game vs the Chargers at home and go outside here.

The Eagles will be without Desean Jackson, Dallas Goedert, Malik Jackson, Corey Clement. Alshon Jeffery is questionable for them. Carson Wentz missed a few plays last week as well in an attritional match in Atlanta.

If Jeffery misses out which he may well do, then the WR1 will become Nelson Agholor who had a mixed game last week missing out on a TD before making a good catch to get himself one. He’s unreliable. WR2 and 3 would likely be Mack Hollins and the rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside. I was hoping the price wouldn’t match the opportunity for Mack Hollins but a best of 6.5 (11/2) isn’t one for me and Whiteside being a bigger redzone threat has him even shorter.

Their run game is still confusing, nether Jordan Howard nor Miles Sanders doing much to impress as of yet although Sanders seems to have a lot more ability in that facet of the game, neither are a bet for me on props or TD.

Matthew Stafford has looked reassuringly good throwing the rock this year hopefully showing that it was indeed his back and injuries to his pass catchers that let him down last year. This year they’ve given him a varied bunch of pass catchers and he seems to be doing a decent job of finding them.

Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay return from last year; Golladay had a bit of a breakout week which a lot of us have been waiting for for ages, Marvin Jones moved the ball well. They added Danny Amendola and Jesse James in FA, Amendola showed up week 1, nothing last week, James had 3 receptions last week, and then there’s TJ Hockenson who beasted week 1 then had 7 yards last week. They’ve actually got a lot of options.

They look to be settled at running back finally with the Johnson brothers, Kerryon took a pass to the house last week but is yet to get through on the ground, and Ty Johnson is now the definite 2 after they released CJ Anderson in the week.

Ty Johnson had 7 touches last week, 5 rushes and 2 recptions, admittedly they’re facing a very good Eagles run defense but I’ll be taking 20/1 on him getting in the endzone in this one.

Ty Johnson anytime – 20/1 (365) – He’s 3/1 on Skybet…

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) v Houston Texans: 49

The Chargers don’t have much luck with their kickers do they? The money-badger is still questionable and the kid they had kicking last week, their punter… Missed 2 field goals in a 3 point loss to the Lions. It was a very Chargers type loss. The Texans scraped to a 1 point win vs Jacksonville Sacksonville who went for 2 at the end of the game and failed.

LA have gone a week without having to add anyone to their extensive injury list, well done to them. If anything they’ve got slightly healthier with Mike Williams having a little more time to recover from the knock which didn’t even seem to affect him last week as he made a few catches down the field. He’s a big lad and probably due a TD. I can see Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler getting a lot of the ball again today, the Chargers offensive line isn’t great so it may well be a lot of short passes to open guys. Just like last week where Allen had 8 and Ekeler 6 receptions.

Justin Jackson has been running pretty well when given the chance but it’s definitely Ekelers job back there, he had one called back last week then fumbled when trying to go over the top at the goal line, a painful night for anyone who had him for 2+

The Texans scored 13 points last week against a Jacksonville team who sacked Deshaun Watson 4 times, that means he’s taken 10 sacks in 2 games so far this season, some are his fault, but you’ve got to wonder how long he can carry on taking that kind of punishment.

Carlos Hyde has looked pretty damn good running the ball for them since he signed, and he’ll get a lot of it tonight as well, whether it will be the 20 attempts he had last week, I doubt it, but he’s been good. Duke Johnson hasn’t been awful and was missed on a wheel route which would have been a TD last week.

Going against Jalen Ramsey last week kept Nuk Hopkins to just 40 yards. Last season he had one game below that line, 36 yards. So I’ll be expecting him to bounce back to his usual 80+ this week, Will Fuller practised fully this week so no worries there for him and Kenny Stills seems to be getting more action than Keke Coutee truthers like myself would have hoped for.

mostertap

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) v Pittsburgh Steelers: 43.5

I had the pleasure of watching all of the 49ers game last week and it was probably the best schemed game I’ve seen in a long long time, Shanahan knew the weaknesses of the Bengals and exploited them perfectly to rack up 41 points and over 500 total yards. The Steelers lost Big Ben for the season last week (awwwww) and started 0-2 for the first time in many a year after a close defeat to the Seahawks.

The 49ers return home after winning 2 road games in a row and they’ll be hoping for a repeat of last week, Jimmy Garoppolo looked about as far from his appearance in game 1 as possible, looking poised and calm in the pocket although he threw a horrible interception he ended with 3 TDs on the night. They had players open everywhere.

The backfield is a three-headed monster. Matt Breida the best runner there, Raheem Mostert is a bit of both and is lightning quick in the open field, and Jeff Wilson Jnr was announced this week as the Redzone back by Shanahan after getting 2 TDs from close-in last week.

It looks like Deebo Samuel is going to be the one in the passing game, he had a fancy looking run after catch, Marquise Goodwin is the official WR1 and can score from anywhere with the pace he’s got. Dante Pettis, who? George Kittle will get more receptions this week than the 3 he had last week, I’d expect him back to 6 or more.

The Steelers come into this with a backup QB, but according to the media who don’t believe the Steelers can do anything wrong it’s perfectly fine and because they traded away their 1st rounder last week it shows they have faith in him. In order to display a slight bit of neutrality, he finished the game with decent numbers last week 12 from 19, 2 TDs both to Vance McDonald.

James Connor has been ineffective so far, and has been hampered with a knee injury this week although is declared fit to play, Jaylon Samuels should be next up if he goes down, but Benny Snell broke off a decent run on his one attempt last week too.

There’s a lot of chatter about James Washington being Rudolphs favourite target because they used to share showers on the same team in college, and of course the Steelers are the best team in the world at developing WRs, so despite him looking crap he’s obviously amazing. Juju needs to step up now he’s the WR1, again his numbers haven’t been bad, half of them came on one big catch from Rudolph last week. I think, it’s a hunch, but I think that Diontae Johnson could be in for an increase this week, he’s had a red zone target in each week so far and Donte Moncrief being unable to catch likely means he’ll be out in the cold. Vance McDonald is pretty good at tight end and converted both his redzone targets to TDs last week.

Diontae Johnson anytime – 10/1 (365); Raheem Mostert o13.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (365)

Seattle Seahawks (-5) v New Orleans Saints: 44.5

And the other big QB news of the week was Drew Brees going out injured, and out for 6-8 weeks. Teddy Bridgewater took over last week and didn’t look great in a loss to the Rams. The Seahawks are 2-0 having scraped wins against a Bengals team who most think stinks, and an injured Big Ben/backup QB.

You can probably tell from that intro where I’m heading on this one, yes they’re 2-0 but I haven’t been impressed by the Seahawks so far. Their offensive line has been a mess, allowing pressure on pressure in both weeks, luckily they’ve got Russell Wilson back there who’s a fucking magician at times.

They’ll be happy with the performance of DK Metcalf as well, they’re not asking a lot of him but he’s running his simple routes and boxing out defenders well 89 in week 1, 61 and a TD last week. He’s set at 48.5 on PP, 69.5 on Unibet if you fancied a nice middle to aim for. Tyler Lockett had a bounce back game last week with 10 receptions as they adjusted their game plan to try and negate the pressure on Wilson and it looks like David Moore could be making his first start of the season.

The run game is still Carson over Penny and with Penny banged up it will likely carry on like that despite 2 fumbles from Carson last week.

I have faith in Sean Payton to setup a game plan to be effective this week, and I’m not convinced it will be from the arm of Teddy B. I have an inkling that Taysom Hill gets a lot of snaps this week and if anyone can get him in the endzone it’s Payton.

TreQuan Smith is out, but he’s a bit part anyway, the team runs through Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara who won’t be too affected by whoever is at QB, Thomas will still get 10+ targets, Kamara will still be running the ball well. The man who got the biggest increase when Teddy took over last week was tight end Jared Cook, only 2 receptions, but 7 targets in that game.

I think the Saints cover the spread in this.

Taysom Hill anytime – 6/1 (365)

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) v Los Angeles Rams: 50

The Browns got back on track beating up on a crippled Jets team, the Rams got to 2-0 without really impressing, but did it comfortably against the Saints sans Brees.

The Browns force fed Odell Beckham last week and got him his TD in his former home stadium which allowed him to rub it in Gregg Williams face. Baker Mayfield still hasn’t looked great under centre and is yet to beat a decent team in his short career, this could be a proper statement game for him in another primetime slot for the Browns.

So the main man in the passing game is obviously Odell, behind him it’s a bit more muddled, they lost TE David Njoku who’s on IR with a wrist injury, Landry isn’t doing a whole lot, Damien Ratley was second in yards last week, and their replacement 3rd down back D’Ernest Johnson got more action than I thought he would. If you’re looking for some bigger priced players here then I wouldn’t turn you away from Johnson at 14s, and Ricky Seals-Jones at 12/1 he’s the likely replacement TE for them.

Nick Chubb takes the majority of the carries on the ground he had 18 last week despite it being a blowout.

The Rams are still trying to get into stride so far and it’s tough to know what to make of them having beaten the Panthers in a close one and the Saints without Drew Brees for a lot of the game. Jared Goff has done what was necessary with some decent throws and he got himself a TD last week from the 1.

Cooper Kupp remains his main man and broke off a massive run out of nothing last week, showing no signs of his knee injury thankfully, Robert Woods had his worst game in a long time with just 33 yards (of course the week I backed him to go over) and Brandin Cooks is still the same guy he’s always been as the downfield threat. The Tight ends do seem to be getting more of the ball this year though, Everett had 3 redzone targets last week for them, and Higbee scored in week 1.

Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown shared carries although Gurley had 10 more than Brown last week. I’m still not entirely sure how it’s going to play out back there but Todd Gurley at evens on Betfair is practically unheard of (1.83 elsewhere)

The Browns are beaten up on defense, Denzel Ward announced out this week, for that reason mainly I think I’ll lean to the Rams winning on the road.

Todd Gurley anytime – 2.00 (Betfair)


Summary

Spread treble –

  • Cardinals -2.5, Vikings -8.5, Saints +4.5

Anytime Scorers –

  • Darrell Williams anytime – 10/1 (William Hill) – 1 pt
  • Mark Andrews anytime – 3.75 (Betfair 5/2 on PP)
  • Ty Johnson anytime – 20/1 (365)
  • Diontae Johnson anytime – 10/1 (365)
  • Todd Gurley – 2.00 (Betfair)
  • Taysom Hill anytime – 6/1 (365)

Player props –

  • John Ross o41.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (365)
  • Ezekiel Elliott u22.5 rush attempts 1.87 – Unibet/888
  • Noah Fant o25.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (PP)
  • Patrick Mahomes o317.5 passing yards – 1.83 (365)
  • Raheem Mostert o13.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (365) – NAP – 5 points. 

If you play Draftkings join my league – HERE, If you don’t currently play draftkings find out about it and sign up on this page – Draftkings or the link below. I’ve set up a big spenders league on there this week $20 entry with $126 to the winner, 54 to 2nd place.

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I’ve picked some high priced guys again this week, if it’s another stinker I’ll go back to some shorter prices and try and build a bit more again.

Good luck if with whatever you’re betting on this week.

Oh shit, forgot this bit – Player props comparison spreadsheet! – Probably the most useful thing on the web for NFL degenerates who love to bet! – Player props comp sheet – follow @gscurftrader on twitter for constant updates on it!

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