Week 3 – MNF – Chicago Bears @ Washington Redskins – #Bears100 v #HTTR

4 wins from 12 bets last night, but one of them was a 10/1 so a nice bit of profit on the night, around 7 points up. Not the best of nights, but not to be sniffed at, at all.

I also had someone tweet me saying they only bet on Pollard because he’d read through the previews and took note that the Cowboys could rest their starters by the end of the game, which is good, and makes the hours of work I put into them every week a little more worth it.

I also hit my Parlay for SBR for the first time which is nice – SBR Parlay  – working for someone else and having to work in structure is definitely a weird thing for me but I think I’m settling into it well, also had a bit published on Sportingnews.com this week about 20pt favourites which seems to have done pretty well too – Here which is nice!

So on to Monday night, this won’t be a long one (he says again…)


Chicago Bears (-5.5) @ Washington Redskins: 41

Da Bears

I have so little respect for the ability of Mitchell Trubisky, I’ve said it a lot of times so won’t get into it again. He had 120 yards of passing last week. ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY in an entire game and a quarter of them came on the final drive. I don’t think the coaching staff really rate him either which is a worry for the Bears going forward.

His favourite target is definitely Allen Robinson, with 20 targets through two weeks of the season, 143 yards for him so far. Now admittedly they played the Broncos last week in Denver, which is not an easy place to go, but their second and third pass catchers for the week were both tight ends, Braunecker and Shaheen. Their second leading wide receiver? Taylor Gabriel with 1 for 11 yards. Antony Miller got a single catch for 2 yards. Bleh, enough talking about their passing game. If they can’t get it together tonight against a secondary which hasn’t been great so far giving up 287 ypg.

The run game looks like it’s settling already and David Montgomery seems to be the leader there with 18 attempts for 62 yards last week. Monty has had 5 of their 6 redzone carries as well which is always a positive sign. Tarik Cohen has been playing as a receiver for a lot of his snaps so far this season. Mike Davis is a fella who’s still there as well.

Fortunately for the Bears their defense is proving that last year might not have been as flukey as I thought, they’re third in points allowed per game, 5th in rush yards allowed, and top half in passing yards allowed. They’re stacked all over on defense.

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nbcsports.com

Washington Redskins

Along with a lot of the football cog-no…..scenti…………. I thought the Redskins were going to stink, I wasn’t sure they’d be able to put up any points at all with Case Keenum under center and no-one to throw the ball to, but fair play to Case. He’s put up decent numbers both weeks so far, 380 week 1, 221 last week against the Cowboys. With the guys he’s got to target it’s pretty impressive.

I mean, they’re still 0-2, but have put up a fight against the two best teams in their division. The main man in the passing attack has been the speedy rookie Terry McLaurin. He’s scored in both games so far, and should have had another in the opener vs the Eagles but was underthrown, he also leads the team in redzone targets on 5. Other than him it’s tough to figure where the ball is going, Paul Richardson is the highest paid guy out there, he got into the endzone last week finally, Trey Quinn was expected to have a decent season in the slot, but a lot of targets will go to Chris Thompson who is the 3rd down back and one of the most elusive in the league when he’s fit. Unfortunately it looks like Jordan Reed may be considering retirement due to multiple concussions which is a shame as he was one of the best TEs in the game on the odd occasions he was healthy.

Steven Sims Jnr. Never heard of him, but he appeared on redzone quite a few times last week, only had 3 carries and 1 reception. Officially listed as a WR, honestly I have no idea about him, but he is at 22/1 tonight.

They lost Derrius Guice for the season for the second year running, so the run game is squarely on Adrian Peterson’s shoulders. He can still do it but will probably struggle against the Bears tonight. Only averaged 2.5 yards a carry last week against a solid Cowboys defense, but did get himself a TD.

The Redskins defensive front is really good though, Ollie Connolly (Moore and football podcast) reckons they could be the best in the league up front. However it’s not helping much so far, they’re 3rd in rush yards and total yards conceded per game. Jonathan Allen is a big part of that and it looks like he could be back tonight.

Summary

I won’t be getting up to watch this one. I am quite surprised to see a few football minds thinking the over is a good bet tonight.

Montgomery seems the safest bet here, 2.5 on Betfair but over evens in most places. I like Shaheen and his size gives Trubisky more chance of actually completing a catch, he hasn’t scored many in his career, but another tempting price at 7s on Unibet/888, and while Trey Burton is listed as questionable it seems like he may play tonight which ruins Shaheens chances.

But overall this is purely a watching/ignoring brief for me tonight, I don’t trust Trubisky enough to bet on anything involving him, and I trust the Bears defense too much to want anything to do with the Redskins.


Week 4

Because I’ve got nothing on this game a quick look to next week, quite a few lines that took my interest straight away. The Packers -4.5 at home on TNF against a beaten up Eagles team seems good. The Pats -7.5 at the Bills, Giants -3 vs this Redskins team.

A few TD prices I want to keep an eye on Auden Tate again (Bengals), Darren Waller (Raiders), Darius Slayton (Giants), David Moore (Seahawks) – I’d hope they’d be decent prices, barring Waller who everyone knows about.

All good, and thanks for reading the previews, had another bumper week of views, and it’s much appreciated from everyone who bothers to read through the near 5000 bloody words I put up on Sundays.

If you did for some reason want to read any more of me I’m doing bits for Sportsbookreview.com, Sportingnews.com, Mrfixitstips.co.uk, gridironhub.com each week, I retweet most of them anyway.

And as always keep an eye on @gscurftrader on twitter for when he puts up his prop comparison spreadsheet for next week. Week 3 prop sheet for any comparisons on tonight’s game.

Adam.

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