Week 4 – TNF – Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers – #FlyEaglesFly #GoPackGo

I’m happy I avoided any bets on Monday, amazing Mitchell Trubisky managed to throw for over 200 yards and some TDs, all to Taylor Gabriel. I was leaning towards David Montgomery scoring, he didn’t but he did go over his yards. Definitely want to look out for a price on Terry McLaurin and possibly Paul Richardson for the Redskins at the weekend though as they are playing the Giants, also think that will be a pretty high scoring game.

Anyway, on to tonight. I’ve got a Showdown contest set-up on Draftkings which is filling up nicely (9/15 at 1800) – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/77068632 if you want to get involved. If you’ve not got an account then sign up on the banner below.

Eagles (+4) @ Packers: 46.5

• The Eagles are 4-0 in Thursday prime-time games under Doug Pederson.
• The Packers have won 13 straight prime-time games in September/October.
• Last year the home team won 12 of 15 TNF games.
• Last year 11 of 15 TNF games went OVER the total. 8 Favourites won, 5 underdogs and 2 pushes against the spread.
• This year it’s 1-1, both underdogs have won and both games have gone under.

Eagles

The Eagles lost at home to the Lions by 3 points at the weekend but were missing a few guys who should make it back for tonight’s match, they’re still pretty beaten up and will be missing WR Desean Jackson, CB Ronald Darby and DT Timmy Jernigan tonight but Alshon Jeffery will be back which should be a decent boost for them.

It’s not been the greatest of starts to the season for Carson Wentz; A decent game against a poor Redskins secondary with two big completions to Jeffery, a poor game against the Falcons in a tight loss where he got battered, and a decent game against the Lions in this weeks loss. He’s mobile still and had a decent rush this week to take the ball to the 1 yard line, so he’s seemingly regained his confidence in his knee which seemed absent for a lot of last year. He’s a very good QB especially when he’s got his guys to throw to.

And his main man is usually Alshon Jeffery who has only completed one game so far, 5 from 7 for 49 yards and a TD against the Redskins, he has decent figures when playing with Wentz and returning tonight will help the offense as whole. In his place Nelson Agholor has had to try and step up which he can do in flashes, but he keeps making silly mistakes too whether it’s drops or fumbles he finds a way. In fairness he does also make plays and finished last week with 2 TDs. Desean Jackson is a big miss for the team though he has improved every team he’s been involved with and seemed to have a good connection with Wentz in the opener. Mack Hollins and JJAW came in last week and it was Hollins who performed the better of the two. Another guy who dropped a TD was Dallas Goedert, he was questionable for that game so I guess he could blame having a knock for it. Fellow TE Zach Ertz has had 30 targets this season, a lot of them coming in the ATL game when everyone else was injured but he’s one of the better TEs in the league so worth keeping an eye on his line each week.

The running game is a mess for them still, Jordan Howard got the 1 yard TD at the weekend and had 11 carries for 37 yards. The rookie Miles Sanders got a lot of play as well though with 13 carries for 53 and 2 catches for 73 yards. The eye test says he’s the better of them but Pederson seems intent on using multiple backs per game, and then there’s old man Sproles still getting touches to mix things up even more.

Their defense is good up front but lacking a little on the back end especially with Ronald Darby out today well.

newsweek.com

Green Bay Packers

The Pack come into this one at 3-0 (2 in-division wins) having taken on three fairly stout defenses so far in the form of Chicago, Minnesota and Denver. It’s not been pretty on offense but their defense has looked legitimately good so far (admittedly they haven’t faced much in Trubisky, Cousins and Flacco) but they’re all over it.

The offense has yet to get going this season with usually one of the best QBs in the league looking a little clueless at times. Aaron Rodgers has a high of just 235 yards so for, which for him is unheard of; In fact last year he only had less than 235 on three occasions. He’s looked a little lost at times as well, a lot of shrugging shoulders and conversations with his HC Matt LeFleur.

He did say this week that he needs to get the ball to his main WR Davante Adams more than he has done so far this season, something I greatly advocate having drafted him in several leagues this year. Adams has 198 from 15 receptions this year, ZERO TDs despite being the man in the redzone for the last two year. It seems like I was spot on in diagnosing that Marques Valdez-Scantling would be their #2 target in the passing game ahead of Geronimo Allison. MVS is more of a downfield threat and scored a long TD last week on a free play from Rodgers, he’s had 13 receptions and looked pretty good from what I’ve seen. Geronimo has had 2 shockers so far Nothing in the first game, not even a target, and -1 yards last week isn’t good. He works mainly in the slot. Their main tight end is meant to be Jimmy Graham (He used to play Basketball) but 3 receptions on the year doesn’t exactly inspire trust and Robert Tonyan got a deep target from Rodgers at the weekend. Marcedes Lewis is there as well to muddle it even further.

It’s a mess at running back as well. Aaron Jones looks every week like the best runner in their team but TheFlower seems determined to make it a RBBC (running back by committee) with Jamaal Williams who out-snapped and out-carried Jones last week. Although Jones got the goal-line carries and 2 TDs to save his day. Williams is the one used in the passing game as well so in theory he’s the guy you’d want to get involved with, but he’s just not as good as Jones. ARGH.

Their defense looks legit though, it’s the second fastest in the league on paper and has players playing well at every level, the Smiths up front, Zadarius and Preston have been wrecking balls, Jaire Alexander looks like the next big corner back and rookie Darnell Savage has been great at safety for them.

Summary

I’ve got to lean to the Packers. They’re the less injured team, they’re at home on a short week which as I said at the start is usually the side to lean on. I think this is could be the week that Rodgers and Adams click against backup corner backs. I’d lean to the overs as well, despite GBs defense both teams are capable of putting up points.

Glenn Scurfs Player Prop comparison spreadsheet is up and ready to be updated for the weekend, It’s brilliant if you want to have a dabble on player props which I usually do.

• Packers -3 on the 1st half spread – 10/11 (365) – 3 points stake

Then a few long shots for TDs, all for the Eagles.

1 point each –

• Mack Hollins – 7.00 (WillHill)
• Dallas Goedert – 7.50 (WillHill)
• JJ Arcega-Whiteside – 11.00 (Betfair)

I was tempted with Hollins yards (31.5) as well, I figure he’ll be in the Desean Jackson role but this GB defense scares me.

Good Luck if you’re with whatever you’re on. I might get up for this one, think it could be quite entertaining.

Adam.