Week 4 – SNF – Previews and Betting tips #NFL100

I’m still convinced we were on the right side of things on Thursday night, had it not been for some strange coaching calls from the Packers HC Matt LeFleur who flat out refused to run the ball from the 1 yard line at the end of the game. Luckily we had a 6/1 winner with Dallas Goedert finding the end zone.

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Washington Redskins (+3) @ NY Giants: 48.5

This could be the highest scoring game of the week, neither side can defend especially in the passing game which is where most of this game is likely to take place with Saquon Barkley out. That injury means that Wayne Gallman is likely to get the start but he’s barely fit to lace Saquons shoelaces so I’m not sure how much I’d expect him to get. I think it’s more likely that Danny Dimes (Daniel Jones) rushes quite a lot tonight. He ran two TDs in at 10/1 last week without Barkley on the field. His favourite, and frankly only targets were Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard who had 6 and 7 receptions respectively last week; I’d expect similar tonight. In fact there’s a ton of stuff I like in this game a I think it’s actually going to be a pretty entertaining watch! Do like Engram to score but 2.25 is a little short for me, I may have a TE Trixie later though which he’ll probably be involved in.

From the Redskins side of the ball Case Keenum has been on the injury report this week but practised fully Thursday and Friday so I’m sure he’ll be fine. He’s thrown for 933 and 7 TDs so far this season, which given the ‘talent’ he’s got to throw to is pretty remarkable! That talent could be further depleted tonight as their star rookie WR who has scored in every game so far appeared on the Injury reports this week as well with the Hamstring injury, that’s always a worry for WRs so I’m leaning towards him not being available unfortunately. However… that probably means more looks for Paul Richarson; He’s their highest paid WR and has been getting quite a few looks recently finishing a tough matchup with the Bears last week with 83 and a TD. As I think McLaurin will be out I think I’m taking the overs on him.

Daniel Jones o18.5 rushing yards – 1.90 (Uni/888); Sterling Shepard o4.5 receptions – 1.70 (Uni/888); Paul Richardson o45.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet)

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons: 46

Good luck getting this one correct. The Titans and Falcons have been fairly similar in their inconsistency so far this season. Titans beat the Browns then lost two in a row, maybe the Browns aren’t actually very good. The Falcons are also at 1-2 having beaten the Eagles and losing to the Colts and Vikings, neither of which are awful results in fairness.

The Titans have a decent defense and seem to have an identity on offense. Let Derrick Henry do it all. I don’t trust Mariota therefore don’t trust any of their pass catchers. Um… That’s about it for them.

The Falcons won their only home game so far and usually play a lot better there, they finally got Devonta Freeman going last week after Ito Smith went out with a concussion and Matt Ryan and Julio are playing at elite levels still, Ryan especially deserves some credit for last week, 29 of 34 with 3 TDs all in the second half… He did miss a wide open Julio in the first half though. Julio now has 4 in 3 games and 100 yards in consecutive matches.

The line has come in on this suggesting people are backing the Titans, I can’t see past a Falcons win and cover tbh. I think Ito is going to play, IF he doesn’t then get on Ollison/Hill depending on who takes his place, they’re 16s and 22s.

Carolina Panthers (+4.5) @ Houston Texans: 47.5

The Panthers looked great last week without Cam Newton at QB, I have a feeling he was more injured than we first thought and having a healthy QB back there seemed to work so much better. Kyle Allen was very good against a poor Cardinals secondary. The Texans secondary isn’t exactly shut-down either so he, Moore and Samuel should have a decent night tonight as well. It was Samuel who got more receptions last week but both of those guys are capable of taking the ball to the house from anywhere on the field, they’re YAC monsters. Greg Olsen got 2 scores last week but the Cardinals are terrible against TEs (more of that later) so while it’s impressive for the old man it may need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Crap, didn’t even mention Christian McCaffrey who had 180+ total yards and a TD last week. He’s awesome.

Deshaun Watson is a brilliant QB, whether he throws for 350 and 3 or runs the ball in (2 rushing TDs already this year) he’s good fun to watch with his mobility and his offensive line apparently looked a lot better last week with a couple of rookies adding some protection for him. They’ve got a really good receiving corps with Kenny Stills coming in and helping out straight away to the detriment of my Keke Coutee shares. Will Fuller is due a blow up game as he’s not scored yet this season and even Deandre Hopkins hasn’t had the greatest of starts this season. Carlos Hyde has done pretty well since being brought in to help the rushing game though.

Kenny Still o34.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet) He’s topped that in every game so far 37,38 and 89 most recently.

Cleveland Browns (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens: 45

It’s been rather entertaining to see the Browns start to the season and the way it’s being viewed by most in the media. When you’ve got the “personalities” that they’ve got around the team they were always going to get piled on should they not start well and that’s exactly what’s happened. Freddie Kitchens is getting killed for his play-calling, Baker is snipping back at comments in the press. It’s marvellous.

For what it’s worth the Browns have had a tough start to the year and have a lot of divisional games in the second half so if they lose tonight, keep an eye on their price to win the North. It will still essentially be in their hands. They’ve still got the talent all over but their offensive line has cost them so far. Odell will get his, Landry might do something, but having Damien Ratley as your 3 isn’t ideal. They do seem to be using Nick Chubb as a workhorse though, he even got into the passing game last week as well. 27 touches for him last week in fact.

The Ravens lost in KC and honestly it shouldn’t have been as close it was, Lamar Jackson didn’t have a great game and got lucky with two throws that he chucked up and somehow his team made the plays. The ground game was great though with Ingram scoring a hattrick and Jackson rushing in for one as well. The Browns secondary is looking patchy again though so I can see decent games for Mark Andrews who should be fit again (the questionable status puts me off him at 21/10 after last weeks performance though) and Marquise Brown down the field, Brown has been getting more snaps by the week as he gets healthier.

Baltimore are the better team, especially at home. I think they win but I’m not going to be touching -7. If the Browns click then they’re capable of putting up yards.

New England Patriots (+7) @ Buffalo Bills: 41.5

Battle of the two 3-0 teams in the AFC East. Neither has been tested to any extent by their opposition yet with the Pats beating the Steelers, Jets and Dolphins and the Bills winning against the Jets, Eli’s Giants and the Bengals last week.

The Pats have been fucking impressive in their easy games though, still yet to concede a TD on defense since the AFC Championship game in January and Tom Brady is still somehow playing lights out football. 7 TDs, 0 Ints so far. Last week was a Burkhead and Dorsett week, so you know, good luck trying to figure out who will get the ball this week. Sony Michel has not played well though, forcing just 1 missed tackle all season and they lost the full back James Develin to IR this week too which further hurts him. James White will be back after attending the birth of his child last week. It looks like Edelman will be fine to go, Josh Gordon I’d imagine will be good too. So many weapons but so hard to figure who will get the ball.

The Bills haven’t faced a good defense all year and I get the feeling this could be a rude awakening for them and Josh Allen specifically. Allen is really entertaining because he’s so mobile and has a huge arm. He’s still struggling with touch passes though and some poor decisions leading to 3 turnovers in 3 games so far and it nearly cost them the game last week against the Bengals. John Brown has dropped off a little since the opening game, Zay Jones was missed when wide open last week, Cole Beasley is still getting a lot of the ball though. They could do with Devin Singletary this week, he looked good when fit. Frank Gore is old.

I’ve got to lean to the Patriots covering the spread in this one. The Pats are 19-8-3 ATS in the last 30 in Buffalo and have covered 6 of the last 7 there.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) @ Detroit Lions: 54.5

Take the over on Patrick Mahomes passing yards. Every. Single. Week. 315.5 is the lowest available this week according to the PROP SPREADSHEET and I’ll take that anytime I can. I believe this is the first regular season game that Mahomes has played in a dome, the only other time he’s played an NFL game inside was against Atlanta and he threw a 70 yard TD to Tyreek (60+ air yards) – If he can throw 350+ per week in the elements imagine what he’ll be able to do tonight especially if Darius Slay misses out for the Lions as expected.

The Chiefs have so much on offense, Demarcus Robinson has seemlessly slotted in, Mecole Hardman is quick as fuck and seems to find the endzone when he wants, Sammy Watkins is getting a lot of targets without really doing it these last couple of games and Travis Kelce is the best TE in the game. The run game is still beaten up though with Damien Williams out, McCoy with his ankle knock, Darrell Williams looked good last week when needed and was a shoelace trip away from a 10/1 TD for us.

The Lions are undefeated but they have scrapped wins and should probably have lost in Phillie last week. QB Matthew Stafford has a hip injury so could be limited tonight but he’s got some decent targets in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, last week was a Jones week. The run game is mainly Kerryon Johnson who seemed to gobble up the CJ Anderson rush attempts last week rather than TY Johnson who I thought would have got some. Ty is still 7/1 on 365 this week opposed to 9/4 on Skybet. Tempting.

Chiefs win. Chiefs cover. Chiefs are great.

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credit: fanduel.com

Oakland Raiders (+6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: 46

This isn’t a game I’ll be paying a whole lot of attention to but it will be interesting to see how it goes. Gruden has said he wants to get Josh Jacobs the ball more through the air and the Colts are beaten up on defense so should get him a good opportunity to come through with that plan. The Raiders as a whole are a team I’ve barely paid attention to this year though, they just don’t have a whole lot going on and this is part of a 5 game away trip including a game in London next week which doesn’t help them at all.

The Colts will probably be without TY Hilton this week with a quad strain, I think it would be silly to play him to be honest. That means that Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron will probably get more of ball in his place, I doubt they’ll be loading up the mighty Zach Pascal with too many more targets. Chester Rogers, Parris Campbell, Deon Cain are all decent enough but none are priced where I’d like for a punt on them for TDs. I would assume it will be a lot of Marlon Mack on the ground and try to restrict total drives in the game.

Marlon Mack anytime – 1.83 (Betfair) 

Los Angeles Chargers (-14.5) @ Miami Dolphins: 44.5

This number has come in during the week having been at 16.5 at times, it’s either money or the fact that the Chargers are as always really beaten up on offense. Mike Williams, Travis Benjamin, Hunter Henry, Virgil green, Justin Jackson are all out. On the plus side for them they’ve got Melvin Gordon back this week. They could probably win with 10 men tonight, but it’s a worry for them.

The Dolphins are going to pick #1 next year. In fairness they looked all right for the first half this week and arguably should have gone in to HT in front. If only Devante Parker could catch a ball. Preston Williams and Drake are the only one’s of interest for them.

Chargers win, but Dolphins cover.

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: 48

The Seahawks haven’t impressed me so far this season, scraping wins against the Bengals and Steelers and losing to a backup QB last week at home. Russell Wilson was finally allowed to throw the ball though and rushed for 2 TDs in a massive game when they were playing catchup. That shouldn’t be needed tonight though. Chris Carson has fumbled in consecutive games now though and is Penny was fit last week I’d have expected him to take over the bulk of the carries, he’s likely playing tonight so if it happens again I think he’ll be involved. CJ Prosice got a lot of the ball in the second half last week and would have been 20s for anytime, he’s 11/2ish this week so an avoid.

The Cardinals keep playing quick and for that reason I’m looking at the overs in every game they play, there’s so many more chances for both teams to score in their games compared to others going on every week. Larry Fitz is still catching TDs, Christian Kirk had a good week last week, David Johnson looks to be settling in on the ground and through the air as well. WR3/4 is interesting for the Cards though, Keesean Johnson and Trent Sherfield should be around there with Crabtree released in the week.

Seahawks should win, but I don’t want to touch the cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) @ Los Angeles Rams: 49

The Rams haven’t really got going on offense so far this season and I wonder where they’d be had it not been for Cooper Kupp stepping up since he returned from injury. They aren’t passing the ball to Gurley which seems ridiculous and could be indicative of his knee maybe not being too good. Robert Woods has had two of the worst games of his Rams career in the last too, Brandin Cooks carries on doing what he does though. Their offensive line isn’t holding up as well as it is used to which is putting Goff under pressure and he’s doing OK without hitting the heights of last year.

The Buccs have been doing well at stopping opposing rushers so I’d guess they’re attacked through the air. Jameis isn’t bad at attacking through the air either with 3 TDs in the first half to Mike Evans last week and you’d imagine that will be the plan this week too. Chris Godwin on the other side has a knock and officially listed as questionable, if he’s limited at all the Breshad Perriman probably steps up a bit, with a few of the other WRs Jojo, Bobo and Scotty may get a little more involved but it’s a risk. Perriman at 8/1 on 365 might not be the worst option. Good luck picking between Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber on the ground although I think it’ll be Jones, last time I said that Barber got 20+ carries. (I think RoJo had a knock)

I quite like the Buccs to cover the spread here, I think they’ll be able to put up points if needed.

Breshad Perriman anytime – 8/1 (365)

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos: 37.5

The “who cares” game of the week. Low total, very windy, mile high. Poor offenses, good defenses, probably one for the purists here.

Gardner Minshew became an instant icon with his ‘tash and nudity, he’s done fairly well on the field as well, but against the Broncos? I’m not so sure how they’ll do. Fournette finished the game with a decent stat line last week thanks to 1 run. Before that he’d been atrocious. DJ Chark has scored every game and topped 55 in each. If you’re the Broncos you put Chris Harris on him to shut him down and leave the Jags to do what they want with everyone else.

The Broncos have actually been moving the ball pretty well in the middle of the field and struggling in the redzone. They’ve had more possession, more plays and more first downs in a few games. Last week they should probably have beaten the Packers on the road. Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman both had good games but Manny Sanders had a down spot. The Jags defense will make it tough for them.

I’ve got the Broncos to win and cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings (+1) @ Chicago Bears: 38.5

The line has come in a lot here too, the Vikings opened at +3 and I can see why. As you may have realised from many write ups on the Bears, I have very little respect for them.

I don’t have a whole lot of belief in the Vikings to be honest but Dalvin Cook is just soooo good to watch at the moment, and despite the fact that he’s going against a very good rush defense I just don’t really see him getting slowed down, he’s plus money again tonight. They have a QB who does well when he’s not in prime-time as well and they’re not this week. Cousins hasn’t been asked to throw the ball much but Thielen has been the main man when he does, Stefon Diggs hasn’t had a whole lot so far but should have had 2 TDs vs the Packers a fortnight ago.

David Montgomery needs to get the ball more. He finished the game off for them on Monday but had 4 carries going into the 4th quarter. Cordarelle fucking Patterson had 4 himself as well. Idiots. Trubisky is shit. I’ve tried to be nice but fuck it, I don’t like him, I don’t rate him.

I like the Vikings to win on the road.

Dalvin Cook 2.10 (Skybet)

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ New Orleans Saints: 47.5

This one I’m a little apprehensive about. The Cowboys have looked great this season but they’ve had a very cushy start against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. This is their first real test and even this isn’t as tough as it should have been. Drew Brees is out, the Saints defense isn’t playing too well. It’s going to be interesting to see how it goes.

I don’t rate Dak as highly as a lot of people, I did however take him everywhere I could in fantasy drafts due to the new Kellen Moore offense and the weapons they have collected for him. Amari Cooper hasn’t had his usual bust game yet, so it’s due but Randall Cobb and Devin Smith are adequate if he does, Jason Witten is actually making catches, Zeke is back and running well and Tony Pollard is easily good enough to let him get a little rest at times.

The Saints got lucky last week, they scored on defense and on special teams and got themselves far enough ahead to give Teddy Bridgewater very little to do. In fact I’d go as far as saying they’ve only really got two players you need to stop in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. That’s not an easy task though, Kamara finished with 163 combined yards last week and a TD on the ground and passing game. The Cowboys are probably one of the best setup for that to happen with the pass they’ve got in the linebacker corps. If you stop him then it will all go to Michael Thomas who had double digit the first two weeks, only 5 last week but they really didn’t need to use him much.

I think I like the Cowboys so I think they’ll win and cover, on the road, in NOLA.


Summary

Two Team Teaser

So, a teaser gives you 6 points off a spread, and brings in a two team teaser at 5/6. As far as I’m aware the only sites you can do them on in the UK is 365 or Redzone (free tenner if you bet on a double when you open an account)

  • Pats -1, Chiefs -1 – 5/6 – 5 points stake. 

Spread treble – 

  • Giants -3, TB +9, Pats -7; 5.83/1 on 365

Anytime scorers – 

  • Marlon Mack – 1.83 (Betfair)
  • Breshard Perriman – 8/1 (365)
  • Dalvin Cook – 2.10 (Skybet)
  • Tight end Trixie – Evan Engram (2.2), Will Dissly (2.75), Eric Ebron (2.62) (0.5 x 4 – 2 pt total bet) – Best priced William Hill with prices stated above.
  • Will Dissly – 2.75 (WillHill) – NB – 3 points

Yardage props – 

  • Daniel Jones o18.5 rushing yards – 1.90 (Uni/888)
  • Sterling Shepard o4.5 receptions – 1.70 (Uni/888)
  • Paul Richardson o45.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet)
  • Patrick Mahomes o316.5 passing yards – 1.83 (Skybet) – NAP – 5 points
  • Kenny Still o34.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet)

I’ll leave at those for the night.

Good luck if you’re following. Remember the Pigksin Pickem, remember your fantasy teams, remember to join Draftkings, seriously it helps me keep everything free and it’s fun!NFL19_UK10Bonus_728x60

Above all enjoy and gamble responsibly!

Adam.

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