If you’ve been visiting my page for a while you’re probably used to long, opinionated, rambling previews on every game. I don’t think that will happen tonight though.
BRING BACK ELI! He’s the only man who can beat the Patriots against seemingly unbeatable odds! – This is a rematch of Superbowls 42 and 46, both games won by Eli and the Giants. In 2008 his Giants were 12.5 underdogs against an unbeaten Patriots side and somehow managed to push through and win 17-14.
These two have only faced each other 10 times since 1987 and this is the highest spread there has been. They’re 5-5 in those 10 and the spread was covered in just 2 of them, the totals are 3-7 (o:u) in that span.
Giants (+17) @ Patriots; Total – 41.5
The Weather is supposed to be pretty poor tonight, 20mph NE winds and rain (apparently that’s through the open area of the stadium) which is most of the reason why the line has come down from the 46 it opened at.
Giants
Even with a full roster I would have taken the Pats to win this comfortably but they’re so beaten up that frankly, it would be the shock of the season if they won tonight. They’re without their 3 main offensive weapons with Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, as well as their replacement RB Wayne Gallman who is out with concussion, all miss out tonight. It leaves them with WR Golden Tate who played his first game of the season last week, Darius Slayton who in fairness scored last week and the two Codys? Latimer and Core at WR for them. Rhett Ellison steps in at tight end, I think, and the mighty Jonathon Hilliman will be starting at RB with the Fullback Elijah Penny getting a little as well.
In fairness this is usually where you’d find some good value on TD scorers, but even Elijah Penny is a crappy 8/1 at best on Betway and when you’re facing a team who haven’t allowed a passing TD all year there’s not really much worth touching on the Giants side of the ball.
Daniel Jones hasn’t been awful at QB in his debut season, but was slowed by the Vikings last week and this is probably more of a test, he finished with 182 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in his game last week. I can see him having issues tonight as well. Bill Belichick messes up rookie QBs.
Patriots
How the hell have they had such an easy schedule this year? Even the fucking Bengals might have won a couple of games had they faced the cupcake teams the Pats have had so far. Steelers with Ben carrying an elbow injury, the tanking Dolphins, Jets with Luke Falk, The Bills… Fair enough that’s a tough game, and the Redskins last week.
Brady is great.
Edelman is carrying a chest injury but put up o100 and a TD last week, the connection with Josh Gordon hasn’t been there so far though which is a worry. They are missing Philip Dorsett though which unbelievably is actually a bad miss for this offense. They’ll be running out Jakobi Meyers as WR3 I’d imagine. It might mean more work for the TE R to the Izzo and Matt LaCosse. LaCosse had 94% of the snaps last week with Izzo on 26%, Izzo did snag a TD though.
The running game… did Sony Michel finally kick start his season last week? He had 91 yards on 16 carries and a TD. James White and Brandon Bolden had 6 and 5 carries respectively. White had a further 6 for 46 in the passing game while Bolden again got into the endzone. I have no opinion here. The theory says it’ll be a walkover for the Pats so should mean a lot of Sony running the ball, but the Pats are always tough to predict.
Their defense looks like it could be the best they’ve had in a decade, I think it probably is very good but it’s tough to figure out against the shit they’ve faced so far.
Summary
If you’ve not got money on this one, don’t bother getting up. I expect the Pats to win, cover and the total to go under 42. It seems to be what they’ve been doing in recent weeks with these big spreads and low totals.
I do have a few things that are interesting me though. When there’s expected to be strong winds it’s usually sensible to look for UNDER on the Longest field goal scored Prop on Bet365. It’s currently 5/6 for Under 46.5 yards being the longest.
There’s a few low reception lines for Giants receivers for obvious reasons so it’s always tempting to go over on them. People like Rhett Ellison set at 1.5, about 1/2 for that.
Ok, so this one might be a bit random, but… I consider it priced too high, it only takes a few yards, or a big play to get into field goal range. They have scored in all bar one 1st quarter (last week vs the Vikings)
- NY Giants 1st Quarter team points – o0.5 – 2/1 (365)
- Go to the game, 1st quarter props, 7 up from the bottom of the list, 1st Quarter team points.
Sky have their request a bet offer on, put £10 on RaBs get a free fiver. I requested one earlier which I’ve got my money on, use the free fiver on whatever you want after that.
- Daniel Jones under 200 yards, and 2 Interceptions – 7/2
You’re getting better odds on that then o250 and 2+ passing TDs which to me seems crazy.
Fairplay to Skybet, they’ve got player props up for every game this weekend already, a full 2 days earlier than most sites usually have them. It’s a huge step for us degenerates betting on such things, and hopefully it will spur all the other books on to doing similar in future. They’ve also opened up a load more markets such as Receptions, pass attempts, rush attempts. Looks like they’re really making a move for NFL bettors. (Until you win a few quid and are restricted anyway)
So Good Luck with anything you’re on tonight.
Adam.
Contests are all up for this weekends games, $5 entry to most with a decent payout for the top 3 on each. More info on Draftkings
TouchdownTips 
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