Week 5 – MNF – Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers; #NFL100 #Browns #GoNiners

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A frustrating night in the end yesterday, finishing 2 points down on the night. In hindsight I should have had Fuller and Godwin as the NAP and NB, but obviously I’m gonna say that when I know they’ve won. Still 28 points up on the season, but a lot of that’s from week 1.

It’s a frustrating business these prop bets, but when they’re 2/1 and above it’s not a bad way to make money in the long run. I do know someone who had Fuller and Godwin 2+ as a double last night which was a very nice way to win a 142/1 bet.


Browns +5 @ 49ers; Total – 47.5 (365)

(4.5 and 47 available on Redzone)

I’ll start by saying I haven’t got a real good feel on this one. The 49ers are coming off the bye week so they’ve got the extended rest, and the extra day just to help them that little bit more, and my instant thought is that Kyle Shanahan having a week to plan for a game is probably going to be a very good omen for his team.

The Browns

Baker Mayfield. I don’t know what to make of him, I’ve said before I don’t like him and I try not to let things like that cloud my judgement of players because frankly, there’s a lot of people I don’t like in this league. So I’ll go with stats first. Last time out he helped his team destroy the Ravens in their own stadium, he threw for 342 from 20 completions at an average of over 11 a tick, but just the 1 TD as Nick Chubb took over the game for them. I’ll admit I’ve not seen the game but I’d imagine only getting sacked once probably helped quite a lot after the first few weeks.

Nick Chubb. What a guy, he pumped his numbers with an 88 yards TD run last week but was already running well and had worn down the Ravens offense with 2 TDs before he broke away from everyone on that. He’s been getting worked into the passing game too, with 3,4,4 and 3 receptions in their games this season. They brought Dontrell Hilliard into the game again last week though who found the endzone for the second time this year, so keep an eye on his contribution in this one.

The passing game last week went through Jarvis Landry who finished with 167 yards before being forced out with concussion, he’s practised fully all week so I’d imagine he’s fine to go. I can’t imagine a certain Odell Beckham being too impressed with only 2 receptions last week so I would assume that he’ll get more targets tonight. Other than those two they’ve got Damion Ratley who cost Baker a pick last week, he’s adequate but nothing special. It looks like Rashard Higgins should be back this week after missing a few games with a knee injury, Baker loves him in the passing game. They involved the tight end Ricky Seals-Jones last week who had 3 receptions for 82 yards (16.5 for his passing yard lines seems criminally low for me personally)

The Browns defense is suffering still though with Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams both likely out of this one. Myles Garrett has been fucking shit up though and with the Niners missing their starting LT he should have success tonight. Sheldon Richardson has helped them become a decent enough run defense.

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fanduel.com

49ers

Jimothy Garoppolo. I’m not entirely sure what to think about this attractive fella either. He threw the game-winning TD last week to Dante Pettis, but had 2 interceptions in that game which really should have cost them. He’s thrown at least one interception in each game so far this year, hasn’t passed 300 yards in a game yet. But that’s all game-plan rather than much to do with his talent.

They are the second best team in the league in rushing yards though with 175 per game. That doesn’t make it easy to pick who’s going to get the yards though with at least 3 runners per game getting the ball and doing well with it. Matt Breida is the definite one between the 20s and has looked great all season. He’s yet to score a TD but averages 5.5 per carry. Raheem Mostert has been awesome this year too, averaging 5.9 a go and scoring once in a break away reception against the hapless Bengals. This game though should be the return of Tevin Coleman. He’s got history in a Shanahan offense and they paid him well over the summer. Reports say that he’ll probably take the goal-line role for the team.

The wide receiver corps isn’t much easier to figure out, Marquise Goodwin starts most weeks and can take anything to the house if he gets open, Deebo Samuel was building some momentum before the bye and they schemed to get him the ball a lot vs the Bengals but the interesting one in this is probably Dante Pettis who most assumed would take the main role in this offense but started VERY slowly. There’s now been some reports saying he may have been dinged up and with the bye week to help get him even more healthy he may well get a few more targets in this one, he was second on the team in receptions last game too, then there’s the likes of Richie James, Kendrick Bourne and the almighty Juice, Kyle Juszczyk the full back who’s used more in the passing game than on the ground. In fairness, all this about main man, there’s only one and it’s George Kittle who is yet to score but had 2 called back in week one and has caught 17 of 21 targets this year, 7 targets per game…

I thought their defense would be decent this year and it’s proved that way so far. They’re getting to the quarterback regularly and that’s helped the whole team slow teams down with Dee Ford, Deforest Buckner and rookie Nick Bosa all providing pressure. Bosa has had an ankle injury so this bye will have helped him a lot. They’re 5th vs the run, 7th vs the pass so far this year.

Summary

Should be a decent game, due mainly to them having the bye week and the better coaching staff I’ve got to lean to the 49ers winning this one. I think both defense are pretty good though so I’d be leaning to the unders.

  • Ricky Seals-Jones o16.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (365) – 3 point stake. 

Breida at 50.5 rush yards is pretty tempting as well, but honestly I’m not spending a lot on tonight.

Rashard Higgins at 9/1 on Betfair is a good price if he plays tonight, as I say Baker loves him so he’ll probably get a few targets.

If you fancy some props then as always check out Glenns super-uber-mega-sheet

Side note: Hello Skybet workers. Thanks for noting my suggestion for specific RUSHING and RECEIVING TD markets on certain players. Much appreciated.

Good Luck if you’re on anything tonight.

Adam.

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