Despite not officially picking anything on Monday I called it fairly well, I said I wasn’t sure how it would go, who would win and it finished in a 1 point win for the Packers. The most confident I was in anything was Jamaal Williams overs and I mentioned his price (although I didn’t think there was value in it, of course he scored) – The line wasn’t available when I posted on Jamaal Williams, but went up an hour or so after that and I took the overs on him which went well.
On to Week 7… Fucking week 7 already?! You wait 7 months between games and it flies past in the blink of an eye. I thought I was getting a good read on most of the teams around the league but last weekend didn’t go as planned. Hopefully this week will start better and carry on through Monday night.
Chiefs (-3) @ Broncos; Total – 48.5
Frustratingly, as with Monday night I don’t have much of a read on this game, the Chiefs are coming off two straight home defeats, while luck finally changed for the Broncos as they come into this one with two wins on the bounce. Around this time last year the Chiefs came into Mile High in a Monday night game and emerged with a comeback 27-23 victory. It was the emergence of Mahomes’ left-handed pass on their game winning drive which took the spotlight.
- KC Have won 4 of the last 5 straight up in Denver, and 7 in a row in all venues
- They have covered the spread in the last 5
- KC are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 road games vs the AFC West, covering in 8
- Denver are 6-4 at home in their last 10 vs the AFC West; 3-6-1 ATS.
Patrick Mahomes has come back down to earth after a lightning start to the season which saw him on target for roughly 15,000 yards and 302 TDs after a couple of games, it’s no coincidence that he’s fallen off since getting his ankle rolled up on a couple of times. He hasn’t exactly been awful in these last two losses but just not up to his incredibly high standard, most QBs would be happy with 276, 3TDs and 321 and 1 in their last two games. They’re once again missing 2 of their starting offensive line which won’t help keeping Mahomes protected against Von Miller in this one.
It doesn’t help that he’s playing with new WRs every week as they seem to be dropping like flies this year. He was without Hill for 4 games, Sammy Watkins is OUT this week, Demarcus Robinson burst onto the scene but has dropped off, Mecole Hardman can get open downfield, and Byron Pringle had a good game against the Colts but is a third stringer. He did welcome back Tyreek Hill with 2 TDs and 80 yards last week and he’ll be another week healthier for this one, which definitely helps them. Despite having at least 58 yards in every game this season, and sitting at nearly 500 yards already, it’s not been a great season for Travis Kelce so far, only finding the endzone once.
What doesn’t help them is them being completely unable to establish the run. They’re 9th worst in rushing yards per game, with 82.7 yards. Honestly that’s more than I thought they’d be able to put up, they had 53 yards on the ground last week, 38 the week before against the Colts, and 69 vs the Lions (from RBs anyway, Mahomes had 54 himself in that one) So they really could do with McCoy and Damien Williams getting their shit together and helping out. It’s seemingly a split backfield between themselves, Williams started and got 9 carries two weeks ago to McCoys 0, and McCoy started last week with 8 to Williams 1 carry, although McCoy has been carrying a knock for a couple of weeks.
Their defense hasn’t been the best this year either, they’ve allowed the most rushing yards in the league this year, giving up 788 yards on the ground to opposing RBs so far (second worst overall in terms of rushing yards) and 44 receiving ypg to opposing RBs
Remarkably the Broncos average more total yards per game than the Chiefs, and unsurprisingly are dominating them in terms of the run game, so they should match up quite favourably for tonight’s game.
Joe Flacco isn’t exactly the most inspiring guy to have under centre for your team but he’s done well enough for them, completing 66% of his passes, 10th in terms of QBR, averaging a mighty 239 yards per game. It is a worry for them that he’s thrown an interception in their last 5 games though, and only 6 TDs this season (3 of them in one game)
He’s got two above average WRs to throw the ball to, Courtland Sutton has been improving week on week this year and leads the teams in red zone targets, he’s had at least 62 yards in all bar one game for the team this year and averaging nearly 80 yards per game, he’s only scored 3 but that’s probably more a result of Flacco and the offense on the whole than his ability. Opposite him is a man who’s garnered a fair bit of trade gossip coming up to the deadline in Emmanuel Sanders who’s had a good return off of a potentially a career-ending injury last year, although it’s slowed in recent weeks as Sutton has come to the fore. Their rookie tight end Noah Fant has done all right this year (first year TEs generally don’t show a whole lot) averaging 3 targets a game and 25 yards per game this season, it will probably be around that in this one.
The running backs should get a lot of the ball tonight though. The Colts seemed to have set the blueprint on how to beat the Chiefs, you run the ball and keep them off the field as much as possible, and that’s what the Broncos ideally want to do with their double-headed attack of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Lindsay leads the team in carries, receiving yards and redzone rush attempts, he’s also got 4 TDs compared to zero for Freeman so far, Freeman has a couple more receptions though, and did well with them last week with 5 for 42. I’d imagine they’ll get at least 25 carries between them tonight as long as they can keep the game tight, and they should be able to do that.
The Broncos have kept every game this year tight, and could have been coming into this at 4-1 having lost two home games to last second field goals. They’ve got one of the best pass rushers in the game with Von Miller and they were in the backfield constantly against the Titans last week. They’ve allowed 5 rushing TDs to RBs this year, but are 3rd best vs pass catching RBs.
I think the Chiefs should win, I think they should cover the 3 points spread, they’ve probably still got too much on offense. But will they be able to get on the field to use that offense?
The Broncos should, and probably will run the ball a lot tonight so there should be good games for Lindsay and Freeman, best rush lines for them are 68.5 and 52.5 respectively.
Can you see how vague I’m being with all this?! It’s a tough one to call. Thursday night games generally are and the Chiefs recent form doesn’t exactly inspire me,
So I’m not exactly confident or anything, I quite like Freeman o21.5 rec. yards on 365
Skybet have their bet £10, get a free £5 on Request-a-bets so that will be my only recommended for tonight.
- Kansas City -3, P.Mahomes 275+ Passing Yds & 1+ Passing TD & J.Flacco 1+ Interception – 4.50
Good luck if you’re on anything.
If you want to carry on viewing Glenn’s amazing Player prop comparison spreadsheet then give him a follow @gscurftrader on twitter. Unfortunately he’s had to start charging as he’s putting in a lot of hours per week to keep it up to date, but £10 per 4 Gameweeks is still a bargain for what you get, well worth giving it a look at that price.