Week 7 – SNF – Previews and betting tips #NFL100

So the Chiefs wound up easy winners on Thursday but the main news of the night was them losing Patrick Mahomes for at least 3 weeks, possibly for the season should the MRI come back badly for him *update: apparently it’s as good as they could have hoped for*. As someone who is currently dealing with, what is best described as a “dodgy knee” I feel his pain…

Obviously I’m being a dick, I didn’t quite dislocate my kneecap and I’m not sure I’d have been walking off the field after having it popped back in place had it happened to me! Hopefully for the good of the game Mahomes will only be out for a month or so and we’ll have him back for the end of the season and post-season.

Oh. It did screw up our RaB, although Flacco was so incredibly awful that he wasn’t even getting the ball close enough for a pass to be intercepted. It was like watching the Bengals.

As always if you’ve not joined Draftkings yet then it’s worth a look if you like Fantasy football. I’ve got my regular weekly comps going. Click the banner to join.

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Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ NY Giants: 50.5

Things seems to be clicking for Kyler Murray and his Cardinals, they’ve won 2 in a row now, beating the Bengals and the Falcons last week. Neither of those teams is able to defend, and they face another team this week who struggles to stop their opposition. One of the big changes for the Cards is that Kyler has started running the ball more, it’s opening things up for them on offense. He had the best game of his short career last week with 3 TDs. Chase Edmonds has scored in both wins, the other two last week came from tight end Maxxxxxxx Williams and David Johnson. DJ is again on the injury report with his back issue.

The Giants welcome back Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram this week. Officially they’re both game-time decisions but I’d be surprised if either of them miss out. The Giants had a tough game against the Pats on TNF last week but were down to bare bones in terms of offensive skill players. Daniel Jones ended with 161 yards, 3 INTs and a TD on the night, that score came from Golden Tate who topped 100 yards. This week should be a different story and they will be able to score tonight.

Everyone knows that the Cardinals can’t defend tight ends, so 5/4 for Engram is probably a bet. Even with Patrick Peterson back in their secondary I’m not sure they’ll be able to slow down Engram. My one and only worry on it is his health, OK, one of two worries, his health and how it works with Golden Tate there.

Houston Texans (+1) @ Indianapolis Colts: 47

I have no idea on this one, I think the Texans offense will have too much for the Colts. But the Colts are coming off a bye and have a top 10, maybe top 5 coach.

Deshaun Watson scored a couple on the ground last week to take his personal tally to 5 rushing TDs already, scoring in 4 of their 6 games this season. He’s thrown for 12 TDs, 3 INTs, although 5 came in that game a couple of weeks ago against the Panthers. Will Fuller had 3 for over 200 in that game, and he should have had a similar game last week but couldn’t catch a cold. Hopkins will eventually have a blowup game, I’m not sure it will be this one though. Carlos Hyde deserves props, he’s been running really well for them since joining from the Chiefs, he’s scored in 3 of the last 4, and his carries have increased week on week. Duke Johnson is the pass catching back, he’s had at least 20 yards in 4/6 games. Kenny Still should be back for them, he’s at 13/2, Keke Coutee is 17/2, but they’ve been using their TEs more in the redzone recently, Akins and Fells have both been scoring as well.

The Colts will be happy to get healthy after a rough start to the season with injuries, the bye week came at a good time for them and will have allowed Marlon Mack and TY Hilton to heal up a bit. They’ll be without a couple of pieces in their secondary though, Malik Hooker still out. Mack isn’t on the injury report so I’ll assume he’s good to go. They want to run the ball and keep the opposing offense off the field and Mack has been great at doing that this year.

The sharps seem to be all over the Colts in this one, I’m just not sure they can slow down the Texans offense.

Duke Johnson Jnr. o19.5 rec. yards – 1.90 (Uni/888)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: 44

The Bengals can’t stop the run, the Bengals can’t stop the pass, they can’t rush the passer. This could be very painful for fans of the down-trodden Cincinnati franchise. I don’t really rate the Jaguars, but Leonard Fournette could get near 200 yards in this one. Saying that, Gardner Minshew could throw for 350 against a Bengals team without it’s top two cornerbacks. If he does throw the ball around the DJ Chark should get the ball a few times again. The books know that too and he’s set at 72.5 yards which is too high for me to take on despite the fact I think he’ll top it. Dede Westbrook is probably a better bet at 50.5 as he’s been getting more targets in recent weeks, although he’s officially listed as questionable with a shoulder.

So yeah, the Bengals have had even more injuries and when it looked like they might finally get some offensive line help, instead of playing 5th stringers and guys they’ve picked up off the street, they choose to suspend Cordy Glenn because they think he’s been bullshitting about his concussion so he didn’t have to play for the team. Maybe he was, maybe he wasn’t, but when you need bodies on that line it seems crazy to me that he’s not going to play. Dre Kirkpatrick is out, William Jackson is out, Carl Lawson is out, Andre Smith is out, John Miller is out, Carlos Dunlap is questionable and of course AJ Green is out again. It’s fun being a Bengals fan. Hey, Auden Tate looked great last week though making a ton of highligh reel catches.

Jaguars should win this one, and they should cover. Leonard Fournette anytime – 1.66

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LA Rams (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons: 54

The Rams gave away all of their future picks to trade for Jalen Ramsey this week. While they needed help at corner, it’s not their only area of need so giving up multiple first round picks seems a strange move to me. It will help them try and slow down Julio in this one though. The Falcons defense has been awful this year giving up the second most TDs in the league so the likes of Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are in with a good chance of scoring in this one. Kupp the most likely at Even money, he’s Goffs favourite guy in the red zone. It seems like Todd Gurley will be playing, Malcolm Brown maybe not so Darrel Henderson should have a fair bit of action as well.

Matt Ryan has been playing at an elite level so far this year, he’s had to with the shambles on the other side of the ball. He’s gone over 300 yards in every game this season and had multiple TDs in all bar one of their games. Julio Jones is one of the best in the league, Mo Sanu is reliable and Calvin Ridley is apparently turning into a very good WR. They even managed to get Devonta Freeman a couple of TDs last week, both receiving TDs. It was one of his better games on the ground as well, but the offensive line has not been very helpful so far.

Cooper Kupp anytime TD – 2.00 (365/Hills)

Miami Dolphins (+17) @ Buffalo Bills: 41.5

Will Miami get near the endzone? They’re shortest price anytime scorer is currently Preston Williams at 4/1. They start Ryan Fitzpatrick this week (did you know he went to Harvard?) and that could be a good thing, or a very very bad thing. The Bills defense is really good and Fitz loves throwing picks. They’ve been trying to trade Kenyan Drake this week and last week Mark Walton looked good with the ball, 7/1 for him isn’t an awful price at all. Kalen Ballage at 16s? He’s been shit but isn’t a bad guy to have in short down situations.

Devin Singletary returns for the Bills after the bye week and while Frank Gore will probably still get the bulk of the carries, Devin has looked good in the work he’s been given so far this year, his combined line is 50.5. John Brown should be playing despite missing a practise session with a muscle injury and Duke Williams seems like he could be a thing after they traded away Zay Jones. Duke scored on his debut and 5/1 doesn’t seem too bad for him to score this week.

Bills win, lean to Miami on the spread. If you listen to any betting podcast you’ll probably have heard the term “correlated parlay” on this game. Basically if you think Miami cover the spread you back them and the overs as it’s likely to be a high scoring game. If you think the Bills cover then them and the under as it probably means Miami have scored less than 10 points.

Devin Singletary anytime – 2.65 (Uni/888)

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Detroit Lions: 43

Another tough one to call. The NFC North has been very competitive this year and the Lions will be pissed off after the refs fucked them against the Packers on Monday night.

The Vikings come into this as favourites which they probably should be, I like them, they’ve got one of the best RBs in the game at the moment and seem to have finally got their passing game going Thielen two weeks ago, and Diggs last week with huge games. This is non-primetime against a team who didn’t have a winning record last season. It’s a good spot for Kirk Cousins. Dalvin Cook at 1.8 is definitely tempting, but both of these teams defenses have played really well this year so it might be one I stay away from.

The Lions played well without reward against the Packers, Kenny Golladay had a great first half and finished with 121 yards, Kerryon Johnson got a TD on the ground and everyone else chipped in. This was meant to be Kerryon and Kenny’s break out years and while it’s not been huge they have played well this year. Rookie tight end TJ Hockenson gets a lot of redzone looks, he and Golladay have had 8 each this season. 3/1 for Hock isn’t terrible.

Lean to the Vikings and the unders.

Oakland Raiders (+4.5) @ Green Bay Packers: 47

The Raiders really impressed in London and have had their bye week. The Packers are on a short week coming off Monday night, but remain at home which probably negates that a little.

I have no idea what to make of the Raiders to be honest, Josh Jacobs has been really good for them, 123 and 2 TDs against the Bears was a hell of a performance last week. They’ve not been using him in the passing game as much as they probably should but it’s something they’ve mentioned. I think I’ve got to take o13.5 rec. yards on him (365/Skybet) Their pass catchers are beaten up with Tyrell Williams likely out, so newly rich Darren Waller should keep up his ridiculous pace this year and rookie TE, Foster Moreau and rookie WR Hunter Renfrow may get a few targets as well.

Things are a mess on offense for the Packers as well, they’re definitely without Davante Adams and it looks like MVS and Geronimo Allison might both miss out as well leaving the main WR as Allen. Yes, fucking Allen Lazard. In fairness he had 4 for 65 and a TD last week, fair play to him. Jake Kumerow would be the WR2 if this happens, but Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis the tight ends would probably be targeted more as would Jamaal Williams who returned with a bang on Monday night. Aaron Jones should get much of the ground work if they’ve got to use Williams more in the passing game.

No idea. I’d lean to the Packers winning and covering but it’s not one I want to have my money anywhere near. Unfortunately the books know the injury news so none of the WRs have decent prices, although 3.75 on Jimmy Graham isn’t awful.

With all the injuries to their pass catchers, I’ve got to go for Jamaal Williams o19.5 rec. yards – 1.90 (Uni/888)

San Francisco 49ers (-10) @ Washington Redskins: 40

The 49ers are 5-0, they’ve covered the spread in 4 of their 5 games. The Redskins are 1-5, they’ve covered the spread in 1 of their 6 games.

The 49ers pass rush, especially Nick Bosa has been sensational this year, Deforest Buckner and Arik Armstead have all been getting regular pressure on opposing QBs and making tackles for losses. They should have their way in this one too. Their 3 headed backfield is working well, Breida between the 20s, Coleman in the redzone and Mostert a bit of both. Coleman has 9 rushes inside the redzone this year, converting them into 2 TDs and is adept through the air as well. The passing game is confusing and not one I’d risk money on Dante Pettis is seemingly the main guy, Deebo Samuel, Marquise Goodwin, even the like of Richie James have all had some input this year and George Kittle remains one of the better TEs in the game but hasn’t had much in terms of scoring so far this year.

The Redskins want to go run heavy and they gave Adrian Peterson 23 carries last week which ended in 118 yards. With Chris Thompson out he might get a few catches as well unless they use Steven Sims (18/1) a little more in that facet of the game. Either way I expect the 49ers to essentially nullify the Washington offense. The matchup of Terry McLaurin and the San fran corners will be entertaining. Terry is aiming to be the first guy in ages to have 50+ yards in his first 6 career starts (can’t remember the exact stat! Argh.)

49ers win, and I’d lean to them covering. Tevin Coleman anytime – 2.25 (Skybet)

LA Chargers (+2.5) @ Tennessee Titans: 41.5

Battle of the Henrys in Tennessee.

The Chargers once again have a few injuries, mainly to their offensive line and it caused Phil Rivers to have one of his bad games last week against the Steelers. Nothing worked for them until the 4th quarter when they were miles behind, and Hunter Henry got himself a couple of TDs on his return from injury. Mike Williams is still a decent red-zone/mid range threat, Keenan Allen will still have the eye of Rivers on the whole and Austin Ekeler will provide short adot targets for Rivers on the whole. Melvin Gordon only had 9 rush attempts but I think that was gamescript as much as anything. They got behind quickly.

The Titans replaced Mariota at QB last week and have announced that Ryan Tannehill starts this week. It’s much of a muchness really and I’m not sure much will change on offense for them. It probably means more for Delanie Walker and possibly Derrick Henry out of the backfield. Hell it might be the lightswitch for Corey Davis who can’t get anything going. It probably means more receptions for Adam Humphries in the slot, he can be Tannehills ‘Landry’ for this team. Derrick Henry had a down match last week, I’d expect him to get a lot more carries this week though.

Um… lean Chargers? Really tough but I don’t like the Titans.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks: 48.5

Probably the game of the week? It must be, an interesting look at the ‘old’ and the new of mobile QBs in the NFL. If it wasn’t for the success of Russell Wilson then who knows whether we’d have seen Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield getting drafted even in the first round, let alone #1 overall in consecutive years.

Lamar Jackson is the best running QB I’ve seen in my time properly watching the NFL, I wasn’t really watching when Vick was destroying offenses, so can’t really compare the two, but the way Lamar runs is unstoppable at times. He might be without Marquise Brown again this week which is a hit to their offense, so he’ll likely throw the ball to Mandrews, with a little Miles Boykin, Seth Roberts, Willie Snead mixed in. It’s more likely though that they’ll try and ground and pound with Mark Ingram getting the most of carries, Gus the Bus Edwards and Justice Hill chipping in with 5 or 6 carries per week as well.

Russell Wilson is playing at an MVP level this season, 14 TDs, 0 interceptions and 3 rushing TDs, and a passer rating of over 100 in every game, averaging 124.7 this season. Remarkable stuff. His favourite target is Tyler Lockett who is somehow keeping up his efficiency catching 35/41 targets this year. They lost Will Dissly for the season with an achilles injury, he was their main TD threat, so it leaves some high value targets available for the offense. Last week that went to Jaron Brown who finished with 2 TDs, but DK Metcalf, Luke Willlllllllllson and my man David Moore could get a few targets in the redzone. You know damn well I’m not going to turn down 9/1 on David Moore (Skybet) especially when it’s 7/2 on 365. Chris Carson is the main man on the ground and they’ll likely want to run the ball a lot as well.

These two teams match up well. The Seahawks have won 4 of their 6 games this season by 4 points of less so I’m leaning the Ravens ATS, and a lean to the overs as well. This should be a great game.

David Moore anytime – 9/1 (Skybet) 2 or more 150/1 – 0.5

New Orleans Saints (+4) @ Chicago Bears: 37

And this one should be good if you like good defense. First thought was obviously going to the under, but at 37 I just can’t do it despite the fact I’m still leaning that way.

The Saints are without Alvin Kamara so it will be a whole lot of Latavius Murray at RB for them, with maybe a hint of Zach Line sprinkled in if they get close enough to the goal-line. Teddy Bridgewater seems to have opened up a bit in recent weeks but this is definitely the toughest defense he’s faced. Michael Thomas will probably still get 10 targets, but Jared Cook is also out for them further weakening their pass catching corps, so Ted Ginn? Josh Hill, Austin Carr? It’s really not pretty for the Saints yet somehow they’ve been winning. (They’ve got a great coach and a defense which has well and truly stepped up to the plate)

Da. Bears. Great defense, but fuck all else. They lost Akiem Hicks to IR this week which is a big loss to that defensive unit. Mitchell Trubisky is back in training, I’m not sure it’s a good thing for him to start or not. Chase Daniel threw for 231, 2 and 2 in London the last time they played, but they trailed early and had to chase it, Allen Robinson was his main target, as he was for Trubisky so I’d imagine he’ll get targeted no matter what. Anthony Miller was back in the slot, Tarik Cohen helps in the passing game, Trey Burton is back at TE for them. But it’s meant to be mostly on David Montgomery, the rookie RB get most of the snaps there now, but hasn’t performed as well as most expected so far.

I’m not sure what to make of this one either. The Bears have a good home-field and with the Saints injuries I’ve got to lean to them despite the fact I think the Saints will keep it close. Still leaning unders too. This could be a horrible game to watch.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: 49.5

And finally the battle for the NFC East could be decided here. The Eagles get smashed by the Vikings last week as Stefon Diggs took advantage of their horrible secondary, Carson Wentz has performed pretty well this year despite having little to throw to. He’s had at least one TD in each game and nearing 100 on passer rating. It’s not his fault! Alshon Jeffrey is his main target, other than that there’s not a whole lot of reliability since Desean Jackson went out injured. He does seem to be finding RB Miles Sanders on wheel routes though, he finished last week with 86 yards and a TD on a 45 run after catch. Main man on the ground is Jordan Howard. The passing game other than Jeffrey? Agholor, Mack Hollins? Maybe a little of JJ Arcega-Whiteside who has been disappointing given expectations. He has got Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, who are probably the best TE duo in a pass-catching sense.

The Cowboys look like they’ll be welcoming back La’el Collins and Tyron Smith on the offensive line which is vital to them. They just don’t win without that line being in pristine condition. Zeke is great, 150+ combined yards and a TD last week in a loss to the Jets, he’s never out of the game, and it looks like Amari Cooper should play at WR for them as well. He went out very early last week which meant somehow, someway that Tavon Austin had 5 receptions. Crazy times. Michael Gallup will get his this week and oldman Witten still gets his receptions as well. It does look like Randall Cobb will be out though.

The winner of this week takes sole control of the NFC East and obviously would have the tie-breaker against their only real competition. It’s a huge game for them. I’d lean to the Cowboys and the over, but once again, not one I’d want to bet on.

Miles Sanders o29.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (365)

Summary – All 2 points unless stated.

Spread/Totals treble;

  • Rams -3, Jags -4, 49ers -9.5; These lines were at Skybet, 0.5 pt better on Jags and Niners.

Anytime scorers

  • Leonard Fournette anytime – 1.66 (365) – NAP – 5 pts
  • Cooper Kupp anytime TD – 2.00 (365/Hills)
  • Devin Singletary anytime – 2.65 (Uni/888)
  • Tevin Coleman anytime – 2.25 (Skybet)
  • David Moore anytime – 9/1 (Skybet)
  • David Moore 2 or more 150/1 – 0.5 (Skybet)

Yardage props

  • Duke Johnson Jnr. o19.5 rec. yards – 1.90 (Uni/888)
  • Miles Sanders o29.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (365)
  • Jamaal Williams o19.5 rec. yards – 1.90 (Uni/888) – NB – 3 pts

That’ll do for the night, I think.

Good Luck with whatever you’re on.

Adam.

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