Week 7 – MNF – NE Patriots @ NY Jets; #GoPats #TakeFlight

My god. What a fucking state last night ended up.

I personally lost the handicap treble by half a point, if I’d known that game was going to played underwater in Washington I don’t think I’d have played them there. Nailed the other two, mind you, and some people might have got lucky playing the 9 for a push instead of 9.5. I dunno.

No score for Fournette, who had 145 combined yards, in fairness the Jags only had one or two plays from within the 5 yard line, and the Bengals stopped them on 4th and goal very early on, other than that he didn’t get a sniff.

The Rams had it too easy against the Falcons and didn’t seem to use Kupp in the red zone despite having done that most of the season, it’s possible the emergence of Everett as a reliable target could hurt that going forward. Bad call here.

Devin Singletary shared snaps, but I didn’t see him get any attempts in decent areas, I’m surprised he got nothing through the air though.

Tevin Coleman. Played underwater.

And just one TD from David Moore, say hauling in the target he had in the back of the endzone which went through his hands, would have given profit for the day, he only had 3 targets on the day, but they’re usually valuable targets and while Jaron Brown got more than I expected, I wasn’t too put off on this one at the price.

Miles Sanders didn’t get his yards, got to admit haven’t seen much of that game with it being at 120. But with them trailing I’d have expected them to use him more than they seem to have done.

Did have 2 winners though, Duke Johnson scrapped over his yards for Houston with 22, and Jamaal Williams had the lowest yardage of any GB pass catcher with 26. So I’d say we were probably a little lucky with the winners.

It was a painful night.

I’ve not got a whole lot of a lean on tonight either, and frankly after last night it’s probably better to have a night off and re-evaluate what I post as recommendations.

Patriots (-10) @ NY Jets: Total – 43

Pats

The Pats are 6-0. They’ve had probably the easiest schedule any team has ever had with the QBs they’ve faced so far this year. They won the first game against the Luke Falk Jets 30-14 and the 14 points came off defensive TDs for the Jets.

Josh Gordon, Matt Lacosse, Ryan Izzo, Rex Burkhead are all out for them.

Brady has o300 yards in 4 of 6 this year, multiple TDs in 4 of 6, and probably more surprisingly an INT in 3 in a row now.

With Gordon out Edelman will probably get even more targets, he’s had o100 in the last two and at least 6 targets in 4 of 6 games this year. Philip Dorsett should be targeted more without Gordon there, he had 6 recs, 53 and a TD against the Jets in that game. The rookie Jakobi Meyers should get involved as well, he was a pre-season darling for a lot of people and with N’Keal Harry back soon he’ll want to prove he’s worthy of a plus in this side. Ben Watson is the remaining healthy TE for the Pats but he’s not played this year after suspension, being released and resigned. Although tey also picked up Eric Tomlinson who used to be on the Jets roster, more of a blocker but was available at 20s

RB is always a mess for them, no Rex means more James White and Sony Michel, but it’s always a ballache to figure who’s going to do well in each game. The Jets are pretty good at stopping the run so White will probably get more touches. Oh, and Brandon Bolden has been mixed in as well and has himself 2 TDs.

They’ve got probably the best defense in the game, but they’ve not exactly had to prove themselves against the shit they’ve faced so far.

Jets

Sam Darnold is back and had a good game last week against the Cowboys. 338, 2 TDs and 1 Int last week in what was probably his only healthy game this year.

Unsurprisingly Le’veon Bell hasn’t exactly set the world alight playing for the Jets. He was never going to put up Pitt. numbers behind a different offensive line, but he’s had a billion touches at least and scored his first rushing TD last week, to go with a rec. TD in the opener. He had 22 touches, 18:4 vs the Pats. I thought Ty Montgomery would do something but he’s had 15 touches all season, and Billy P has done nothing.

Jamison Crowder has had 26 targets in games with Darnold, 9 of them last week, with Robby Anderson probably being tracked by top 3 (1) cornerback Stephon Gilmore there’s a good chance Crowder will get around that mark again tonight, he had 99 and 98 yards in those two games with S-Darn. Holy shit it’s a Demaryius Thomas revenge game, and he’s pissed. There was an article in the week saying the Pats promised him time, then released him without a word…he caught all 4 of his targets for 62 yards last week… interesting. Braxton Berrios revenge game too! They thought they’d have Chris Herndon back after suspension but he did his hammy, so you’re looking at Ryan Griffin? Caught all 3 targets and got a TD last week and has 3 RZ looks so far this year.

They’re not awful on defense themselves. They’ve got the happiest kid in football Quinnen Williams who’s a machine. They could do with CJ Mosley back and it looks like he’ll probably be playing tonight.

Summary

I think the Jets will keep it close, I’d lean to them on the handicap, and er… over?… no, under?! No, no lean on total. The slightest tiny sway to the over I guess.

  • Jamison Crowder o4.5 receptions 2.00 (Skybet)

Good Luck if you’re on anything. I’m not exactly hopeful and knowing how my weekend has gone I can see James White getting 8 points more than Sony Michel and me losing my main Degens fantasy league this week too.


One thing I do want to make a habit of is posting the following weeks lines on a Monday so that we can all see how much they’ve changed come Sunday. Annoyingly Sky do home team first, but it’s the easiest for me to rip the data, so I’ll use that.

  • Minnesota Vikings v Washington Redskins -15: 42.5
  • Buffalo Bills v Philadelphia Eagles -2: 43.5
  • Chicago Bears v Los Angeles Chargers -4.5: 40.5
  • Detroit Lions v New York Giants -6.5: 50
  • Houston Texans v Oakland Raiders -6.5: 51.5
  • Jacksonville Jaguars v New York Jets -4.5: 41
  • Los Angeles Rams v Cincinnati Bengals -12.5: 49
  • New Orleans Saints v Arizona Cardinals -9.5: 48.5
  • Tennessee Titans v Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5: 46
  • San Francisco 49ers v Carolina Panthers -5: 41
  • Indianapolis Colts v Denver Broncos -5.5: 44
  • Kansas City Chiefs v Green Bay Packers 4.5: 49

Just a note for next week, if you’re off to Wembley for the Rams v Bengals and see a short hairy man wearing a Bengals top then it might be me. If you’re going, say hello, buy me a pint… It does however mean the write-ups/tips probably won’t be as good, although I should still be able to get a fair bit done Sunday morning as it’s an evening kick off.

Enjoy.

Adam.

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