Well. Yesterday was a good day, I thought the Bengals played pretty well, although I did get rather drunk so maybe it was down to that? Had a good time though of course and already looking forward to next weekend and being a little more sober than I ended up last night.
Betting wise, had a couple of winners, Kenny Golladay had a day, he scored for us; Auden Tate got his receptions; Jonnu Smith got his receptions nice and easily and got a TD and we were about 5 yards off of a San Fran defensive TD at big odds as well as Nick Bosa ran out of steam, incidentally another 3 sacks for Bosa, we only need 5 more from him to hit the 12+ Sacks that Skybet had offered at 100/1.
Just updated the weekly spreadsheet and frankly it’s not good reading. Still just about in profit on the year from tips on here, around 7 points up. Not good.
Dolphins +14 v Steelers: Total – 43.5
Not a whole lot to talk about in this one to be fair, it’s a horrible game, even before we knew the Dolphins were tanking it wouldn’t have been a good game to have one, it seems the league is punishing ESPN for forcing us to listen to Booger each week by giving them awful games.
The Steelers are 17-0-0 in Monday night games at home since they last lost one in 1992. I think it’s safe to assume that will be 18-0-0 by tomorrow.
The Dolphins are tanking to get a high pick next year, they’re not trying to win and they’re doing a good job of it. Today they traded away Kenyan Drake to the Cardinals, leaving them with Mark Walton and Kalen Ballage at RB. Walton has been getting more of the load recently anyway (66 from 14 attempts last week), so it makes sense, while Ballage looks like he’ll be the goal-line back.
They’ve been more interesting as a team since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over at QB and pushed the Bills fairly close last week without getting the win. He threw for 282 against a tough Bills defense last week with Preston Williams and Devante Parker both benefiting from Fitzmagic being there. 6 and 5 receptions for them respectively and Parker scored for the 3rd week running. Hell, even Mike Gesicki caught a few passes finally.
The Steelers welcome back their new starting QB with Mason Rudolph returning after getting knocked out cold in their game against the Ravens. He’s not really done a whole lot at QB anyway, they ran a lot of wildcat and dumped the ball off a lot in their game against the Bengals.
James Conner will probably get a lot of the ball tonight. Jaylen Samuels should be back tonight though and he’ll probably get mixed in a bit as well, even at QB if they carry on like they were before he was injured.
The whole offense has been shit this year to be honest, they’ve scored a maximum of 27 points in games this year, Juju is barely getting the ball, Diontae Johnson has had a few big receptions, James Washington should return for them tonight if that kind of things makes any difference at all. Vance MacDonald returns for them as well, he will porbbaly get quite a few targets as well.
I have no idea how the Steelers are going to play this game, they do have a decent defense though and will be hoping for some Fitzpatrick on Fitzpatrick crime from Minkah tonight.
The Steelers will win, but they haven’t exactly blown anyone away this season so I think you’ve got to take the Dolphins +14 on the handicap.
- Mark Walton o42.5 rushing yards – 1.91 (Betfred) (43.5 at Skybet 1.83 which is fine too)
There’s actually quite a few tempting prices on the Dolphins players. 4/1 for Parker to score for the 4th week running at Uni/888, Kalen Ballage at 5s on WillHill, even Fitzmagic at 12/1 isn’t awful.
Look ahead to next week.
Arizona Cardinals +9 v San Francisco 49ers: 44.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 v Houston Texans: 47.5
Buffalo Bills -9.5 v Washington Redskins: 37
Carolina Panthers -3.5 v Tennessee Titans: 41.5
Miami Dolphins +4.5 v New York Jets: 42.5
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 v Chicago Bears: 43.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 v Indianapolis Colts: 44
Oakland Raiders -2 v Detroit Lions: 51.5
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 52.5
Denver Broncos -1.5 v Cleveland Browns: 43
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 v Green Bay Packers: 47
Baltimore Ravens +3.5 v New England Patriots: 44.5
The Browns getting 1.5 in Denver appeals to me. If you think they’re going to get their shit together then this week is the time to get on them to win the AFC North. The Ravens obviously playing the Pats, Browns have a very soft second half of the season. 6/1 on WillHill for them, although may as well wait until the Steelers win tonight.