Week 9 – TNF – San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals; #GoNiners #RedSea

AAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

This game can be so frustrating at times, and when you’re in a slump it’s not easy to carry on doing this week in, week out, but for some reason I’m still fairly confident in what I do, and how I do it, so I’ll keep plugging on.

It helps that I went 14-1 straight up on the OLBG blog which is posted weekly by @ChrisJBrophy on twitter. My only loss the Tampa Bay game which should have been a win if not for an errant whistle. So I know I know my shit, it’s just getting it together.

Annoyingly after the write up on Monday I looked closer and had a nibble on Allen Hurns anytime at 25/1 which of course landed.

49ers (-10) @ Cardinals: Total – 43

Well. History is not good for San Francisco. The Cardinals went 2-14 last year… their two wins? Both against the 49ers.

  • In fact, the last 10 games between these two? 9-1 to the Cardinals.
  • The total is 3-7 in those 10 games.
  • The Cards have won the last 5 matchups in their home stadium.

Now, obviously most of these stats aren’t exactly relevant to the teams that we’ve seen out there this season, but well, the Cards own the Niners.

Just as irrelevant but page filling…Other games on TNF this year.

We’ve had 7 TNF games so far this season

  • The underdog covered the spread in 5 of them
  • The Unders are currently leading 4-3
  • Straight up, the favorites are 4-3 winning the last 4 in a row. Admittedly they were a 17 point favorite in the Patriots vs Giants and 16 pts Vikings vs Redskins, Pats covered, Vikings did not.

YAY, Pointless stats!

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have been incredibly impressive this year and I think, finally after winning 7 straight, that they’ve won me over. I’m one of the people who has looked at the teams they’ve beaten and judged them on their relatively easy schedule so far, however I think I might have to admit I was wrong on them. Yes they’ve beaten the likes of the Bucs, Bengals, Redskins and the Mason Rudolph Steelers, but they’ve had good wins against the Rams, and this Sunday a huge blow-out win over the Panthers who had won all games that Kyle Allen had started at QB.

The 51 points they put up this weekend was the franchises highest score in 26 years since they put up 55 against the Lions in Dec, 1993 and was a masterclass in coaching on both sides of the ball. If it wasn’t the historically good Patriots defense so far all the talk through the league would be of this brilliant Robert Saleh co-ordinated defense which has been killing teams up front; the drafting of Nick Bosa and signing of Dee Ford in free agency has increased the production of fellow 1st round picks Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner who have all been great so far this year, as well as Solomon Thomas mixing it, it’s a highly drafted defensive front and it’s playing like it.

The secondary has been good as well, Fred Warner and Kwon Alexander at LB are a good partnership and Richard Sherman is still playing at a high level with Jaquiski Tartt having a good years at safety in the middle of it all.

In fact the defense as a whole has only allowed 77 points this season and were it not for a seemingly historic Patriots defense this group would be getting even more buzz.

It’s not often I write so much about defenses as most betting markets are basically concentrating on offenses, but that’s why this team is winning games. The offense has basically done what it’s needed to. Sexy Jimmy G hasn’t had to do a whole lot in the passing game, and the run game has been schemed to perfection by Kyle Shanahan; something I got to see when they murderised the Bengals earlier in the year.

They do have a few injury issues on offense tonight though with Matt Breida (unsurprisingly) carrying a knock and Raheem Mostert questionable with a quad. I think there’s a decent chance neither go, but Breida has a habit of playing through any and all injuries and as I write it’s been said that he IS indeed playing. If they’re no-go then I’d imagine it will be a larger dose of Tevin Coleman with a sprinkling of Jeff Wilson Jnr. Coleman finished with 4 TDs last week making it 6 in 4 games since he returned from injury. There will probably be a bit of Wilson mixed in.

So, yeah the pass catching corps. It’s been a weird one, they’re talented for sure, but there’s a lot of guys there making it tough to pick week in, week out who’s going to have the good game and the fact that they’re a run first team adds to the confusion. They only threw 18 completions last week in that mauling. George Kittle as always was the main man there. He’s averaging a little over 5 receptions per game and looking at the stats you’d think having a down season on the TD front, but he had yet another score taken away from him last week due to penalties, that’s at least 3 this season. The Cardinals are poor vs the tight end so I’m happy to take him to score tonight.

Outside of him, Deebo Samuel, Dante Pettis, Kendrick Bourne, Richie James have all mixed in this year, and then they decided to sign Emmanuel Sanders from Denver as well. On debut he led the WR corps in receptions with 4, getting a TD in the process. Tonight? Fuck knows, they’ll probably have at least one receiving TD so pick one if you fancy, I’m staying away from any of their WRs scoring.

49ers-vs-cardinals

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have actually been a lot better than expected this year despite their 3-4-1 record. Their three wins though did come against some of the shitter teams in the league in the Bengals, Falcons and Giants, and not by a great margin in any of them. Still for a rookie QB/Coach duo in their first season any wins are pretty impressive.

The main news for the Cards tonight is the injuries to David Johnson and Chase Edmonds, their main two running backs, and I don’t think either of them will play. It means a quick debut for newly signed Kenyan Drake who joined from the Dolphins. He’s a fairly similar mould to David Johnson so I would imagine they’ll try and use him in similar fashion. They have said it will be an RBBC though with Zach Zenner, and more likely Alfred Morris getting short yardage work. Alf at 7/1 anytime isn’t an awful look.

The passing attack for the Birds should welcome back Christian Kirk tonight, he was their main man at the start of the season before missing a few weeks through injury. He returned to the roster last week and led the team in receptions with 8 for 79 against a very good Saints defense. Larry Fitzgerald has been a great servant for the club through the years but has seen his production drop off in recent weeks and it’s not an easy task against the 49ers defense. Outside of the main two, they’ve also got quite a few options in the passing game, Trent Sherfield, Andy Isabella, Keesean Johnson, Damiere Byrd have all played small parts in games this year. The leading pass catcher for them last week, somehow was their tight end Charles Clay.

They’ve been better on defense since the return of Patrick Peterson, and a little tighter against tight ends, good for them. Well done.

Summary

I’ve got to take the 49ers to win and take themselves halfway to a perfect season, but after the spread has moved 2 (or 3 points) and seeing the ATS record of teams when going against at least a 2 point move “Since 2003, in primetime games when the line moves by 2 or more points teams have gone 74-95-4 (44%) ATS.” from @johnewing on twitter. So not a million miles off 50/50 but 10 points isn’t the easiest spread to cover.

On the other hand though, I can see the 49ers keeping the Cardinals to 10 points or so. So they’ll only need 3 TDs to cover should that happen and that’d give the unders a win as well.

As much as I want to simplify, I don’t think this is the game for it. So… I’m going props again. Probably stupid given my recent record, but, well, here we are.

I would imagine a lot of people will be on, or suggesting a defensive TD for the 49ers, BUT… They’ve got a mobile QB who has settled into the league well and hasn’t had a huge amount of sacks in recent weeks; only 6 in his last 4 games. He’s only thrown 4 INTs so far this season, and they are YET TO LOSE A FUMBLE, the only team in the league with that stat-line. For that reason. I’m out. Also a lot of SF to get X+ sacks on the RaBs, be wary.

  • George Kittle anytime TD – 2.3 (Betfair) – 3 point stake also Betvictor but they’re a joke of a bookmaker and I begrudge mentioning them
  • Alfred Morris anytime 8.00 (365) – 1 point

Obviously you’ve got the Skybet free £5 offer when you bet £10 on RaBs.

  • 49ers 2+ Sacks, G.Kittle 45+ Receiving Yards & TD

Kittle 1st, Sanders last at 125/1 … nae bad. Even Breida first, Fitz last at 300/1. That’s the kinda stupid stuff I look at for the free fiver.

Anyways,

Good luck with whatever you’re on tonight, hopefully my luck switches around and we start a bit of a run this week.

Adam.

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