REMEMBER THEY’RE AN HOUR EARLIER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEK! 5PM, 805, 825 AND 1220 TONIGHT!
Ok, I say it every week, but this time I’ve got to make sure… This won’t be a long one! Just woke up over-looking the white arch of Wembley ready for the Rams to destroy my poor defenceless pussy cats later on today and have a whole day of drinking and eating ahead of me, starting at mid-day, so an hour or so to collate this lot and get it posted.
Which given my results last weekend could be a blessing in disguise, no chance of over-thinking things if you’ve only got an hour to think about them. As I posted the lines that were available on Monday I’ll put them up, with strikethroughs so we can see how much they’ve moved during the week and try to figure out a reason for that movement.
Plug for myself here, I’m at the Wembley game today, despite the obvious pain coming, if you see a short hairy man in a Bengals cap and Dalton camo jersey then say Hi, thank me, and get me a pint if there’s a bar nearby!
Los Angeles Rams
-12.5 -11 v Cincinnati Bengals: 49 46.5 @ Wembley
Spread down 1.5, Total down 2.5
The Rams should run all over the Bengals tonight, there doesn’t seem to be any standout injury news on either side. Gurley should be able to put up some numbers and I’d imagine Darrell Henderson will get a bit of the ball as well, he’s looked good in the small spells we’ve seen of him so far this season. Cooper Kupp did actually get some redzone looks last week, but Everett took the TD there and he’s been getting targeted a lot in the RZ as they’re not passing to their running backs. The travel shouldn’t be too much of an issue for the Rams, they stayed for a mini-camp in Georgia (iirc) and both teams came in on Friday so have equal rest.
The Bengals can’t get any run game going as shown by Joe Mixon finishing with 2 yards from 10 attempts last week. As the season is over I’d like them to just role with 3 TE sets and just TRY to run every play, just pound the rock constantly and see if you can get it going. It won’t happen, of course as they’ll probably be trailing. Tyler Boyd is one of the most targeted players in the league but it looks like he’ll get shadowed by Jalen (the cunt) Ramsey tonight. So I like the look of o3.5 receptions for Auden Tate available at 1.83 on William Hill. He’s made some great catches this year and looks good for the Bengals, not bad for a 7th round pick.
Rams should walk this one, but it’s a London game and weird shit happens when teams come to these shores. I can confirm there’s currently clear blue skies in London so hopefully the downpour from yesterday will stay there.
Auden Tate o3.5 receptions – 1.83 (WillHill/Skybet)
I’ve got a showdown setup on this game over on Draftkings – 8/10 filled so far. Rams v Bengals showdown
Atlanta Falcons +10 v Seattle Seahawks: 51
no line earlier in the week due to the worries about Matt Ryan who is definitely out, so a big double digit spread in this one.
Matt Schaub is a turnover machine, so Seahawks to score a D/ST appeals, although 3/1 does not. Seahawks lost last week at home, will want to bounce back, Chris Carson struggled a little and the passing attack wasn’t great either, Jacob Hollister at tight end got a lot of targets. David Moore update, he’s 7.5 at Skybet. DK and Tyler Lockett should both have good games against an awful Falcons D
Falcons traded away Mo Sanu in the week so it looks like it’ll be Julio and Calvin Ridley as the main guys, probably Justin Hardy stepping up as the 3, he’s 8.00 on 888/Unibet which is tempting, although Russell Gage mixes it up, best of 5.00 for him
Falcons are a mess, but I’m not touching this one.
-2 -2.5 v Philadelphia Eagles: 43.5 40.5
spread up half point, total down 3
Tough game to call here, the Bills haven’t really faced any opposition but have dealt well with most teams, although needed a late on-side kick return to make last week look respectable vs the Dolphins. The Eagles were embarrassed in prime-time last week against their main rivals so need to bounce back.
Again no real injury news out of either of these team, the Bills will likely have to throw the ball though as the Eagles have a good run defense. So this could be on Josh Allen and Smokey Brown
The Eagles are a bit of a mess on offense tbh, they need to get Ertz going in the middle of the field, and frankly, just a little cohesion will help them get moving, they’ve got decent players and usually decent coaching.
John Brown anytime – 3.75 (365)
-4.5 -3.5 v Los Angeles Chargers: 40.5 41
spread down a point, total up a half
Bears suck. Trubisky sucks. I mean he really sucks, he’s fucking awful. The Bears at the moment are akin to the Bortles-led Jaguars that we saw a couple of years back. The team have no faith in him to do anything and the defense are struggling to keep going. The coaching doesn’t help either, who in their right fucking mind would think that giving Trubisky 54 attempts was a good idea?! He’s utter shite.
The Chargers aren’t great either since Melvin Gordon came back, he cost them the game last week after fumbling on the goal-line. They really should make him the part-time back and give Ekeler the ball more, but I’m not sure they will. Hunter Henry is a beast, nearly 100 yards in each game since he returned from injury.
I’ll lean to the Chargers but it’s a tough one to call as neither team are playing well.
Hunter Henry anytime – 3.75 (BetFair)
-6.5 -5.5 v New York Giants: 50 49.5
spread down a point, total down a half.
The Lions go into this one with Ty Johnson and JD McKissic probably as their one-two running game after Kerryon hit the IR this week, so you’ll probably be looking at Matthew Stafford throwing the ball more. Marvin Jones got it all last week, so as these things happen I would imagine Kenny Golladay will get more this week.
The Giants have Saquon another week healthier, Engram had a shocker last week but Tate did well. They’re still without Shepard though, Daniel Jones has turned the ball over a lot and the Lions defense is pretty good.
I think the Lions win and cover. Kenny Golladay anytime – 1.95 (Uni/888)
-4.5 -6.5 v New York Jets: 41 40.5
spread is 2 points up, total down a half.
Big move on the spread after the debacle that the Jets put out on Monday night against the Pats. Sam Darnold seeing ghosts through the game. He’s young and confident so I think he’ll bounce back, but the news of them wanting to trade away Robby Anderson is worrying and potentially disrupting, some team is going to get a good deal there.
The Jags ran over the Bengals last week but struggle finding the end-zone, they’ll want to use Fournette another 27 times in this one, but the Jets run D is pretty good. DJ Chark, Dede Westbrook are both decent, Dede was the man last week.
Nothing on this one from me, now the spread is so big I’d lean the Jets to cover it though.
Indianapolis Colts -5.5 v Denver Broncos -5.5:
No more on spread, total plummeted 2.5 points
This could be boring. The Colts want to run the ball and the Broncos don’t really offer a whole lot on offense.
Bah. Colts win, be wary of the spread though, they’ve all been one-score games for them this year.
New Orleans Saints
-9.5 -11.5 v Arizona Cardinals : 48.5 48
Spread up 2 points because Drew Brees is starting, total down a half.
Drew Brees starting, Alvin Kamara ruled out, so another Latavius Murray game for the Saints, not a whole lot of difference on offense, Michael Thomas will still get most of the ball, I think Jared Cook is out as well, so Josh Hill not a bad look for a TD, best of 3/1 on Skybet for him.
The Cardinals are officially without David Johnson this week as expected, so Chase Edmonds carries on after his 3 TD week last week. Odds of 2.5 for him to find the endzone this week but the Saints run defense is very good. The whole Saints defense is good tbf, they really stepped up to help Teddy B win every game he started.
No players props on this one yet with all the injury news floating around. I’d probably lean to the Cards covering now the spread is this big, but no bet for me.
-2.5 -3 v Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 46
spread up a half onto a key number, means a lot of people backing the Titans.
Titans won last week so they’re due a loss. Jameis had a week without an interception. Well done him.
Tannehill looked decent enough, o300 yards passing, hitting AJ Brown and Corey Davis 6 times each. Davis looked like the main man he wanted to target, AJ Brown is live and direct, and fucking huge. I like Jonnu Smith in this one, especially at plus money on the overs for his receptions, Delanie Walker is out so he’ll be the main tight end for them.
I expect Jameis to bounce back with a decent performance although the Titans defense is good, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are very good. OJ Howard is out, so Cameron Brate gets a bump up at tight end, Jameis prefers him anyway. 4.33 for him to score on betfair
Jonnu Smith o2.5 receptions – 2.10 (365/Skybet)
San Francisco 49ers
-5 -4.5 v Carolina Panthers: 41
half point down on the spread.
In my eyes the 49ers matchup well in this one, they want to run the ball and the Panthers allow teams to run the ball. They also get pressure on the QB and Allen has a propensity for fumbles. They signed up Emmanuel Sanders in the week so keep an eye on how he does, Shanahan likes him so should get some of the ball as they’ve not been able to get their WRs going so far. Kittle still the main man in the passing attack.
First real test for the 49ers run D which has done well this year facing the almighty Christian McCaffrey coming off a bye week will not be an easy task for them. This is a narrow offense though, CmcC, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel and Greg Olsen is about it.
49ers D/ST to score – 7.00 (Betfair)
Houston Texans -6.5 v Oakland Raiders:
no change on spread, total up 1
Should be a big game for Watson, Nuk and Kenny Stills in this one. They’re without Will Fuller so there’s less confusion about where the ball will go. Keke Coutee short range, Nuk everywhere, Stills long-range. The Raiders give up more 20+ yard completions than anyone else in the league.
The Raiders have Josh Jacobs, Tyrell Williams both officially questionable, Jacobs is expected to play, I’m not so sure about Ty. They need Jacobs really, he’s been brilliant for them this year, and PFF apparently have them ranked as their #1 RB on the season, averaging 5.1 ypc I can see why, and some of the cuts he made vs the Packers last week were true ankle breakers. It’s Jacobs and Darren Waller as the offense. Waller finally found the endzone last week, with two TDs which could have been 4. He and Moreau both got in.
One of Nuk or Stills will score in this one, Nuk is best priced 1.8 at Redzone, Still 3.00 at Betfair. Texans win, not sure on spread, the Raiders have over-performed this year so far.
New England Patriots -11 v Cleveland Browns: 43.5
First proper game for the Patriots? Probably not, but we all know the Browns have the talent to be a threat to teams if they can get their shit together.
Baker Mayfield leads the league in interceptions. Marvellous. Personally I’m hoping for a repeat of Monday night by the Pats but it should be better than that for the Browns coming off a bye week. They should be able to get Nick Chubb going, he’s been their one bright spot so far this year, Odell will probably be covered by Stephon Gilmore, so Landry with the slightly easier coverage, but still not great.
Pats are great on defense, not quite so much on offense and the Browns welcome back a couple of starters in the secondary. It won’t be easy for the Pats to move the ball in this one. They signed Mo Sanu in the week I have no idea how much he’ll get.
I’d lean to the unders on this one, we know the Pats won’t give up much and with the Browns getting pieces back on defense it won’t be too easy that way either.
Tom Brady has actually thrown an INT in his last 5 games.
Tom Brady o0.5 INT – 2.20 on Skybet
Kansas City Chiefs
+4.5 5.5 v Green Bay Packers: 49 48.5
Spread up a point after Mahomes confirmed out, total down a touch.
We’re being robbed of the best matchup of the season here with Mahomes being confirmed out.
Rodgers had a career game last week, amazingly his first ever perfect passer rating of his career, 5 thrown TDs, one rushed in. Scored generally by randoms, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams both got one, Jake Kumerow, MVS and Jimmy Graham all scored. I doubt he’ll repeat that this week but it was bloody impressive.
The Chiefs will be starting Matt Moore, not great but Andy Reid is a great coach and should have been able to put in some work getting him ready for this one, he did all right in releif last week throwing a dime for Tyreek to take to the house so should be all bad for the Chiefs despite the very obvious downgrade.
Nothing from me, got to think the Packers win, but it’s been an 11 point swing from the look ahead line which assumed Mahomes was starting, that’s too big for me to back against.
- John Brown anytime – 3.75 (365)
- Hunter Henry anytime – 3.75 (BetFair)
- Kenny Golladay anytime – 1.95 (Uni/888)
- 49ers D/ST to score – 7.00 (Betfair)
- Jonnu Smith o2.5 receptions – 2.10 (365/Skybet)
- Auden Tate o3.5 receptions – 1.83 (WillHill/Skybet)
- Tom Brady o0.5 INT – 2.20 on Skybet
Good luck if you’re following along, or whatever you’re on, if you’re at Wembley try and enjoy it despite the probable one-sided nature of the game.
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