Week 14 – TNF – Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears; #DallasCowboys v #Bears100

One bet, one win on Monday, and it was easily in as well. I did miss out on Penny anytime and 2 or more at 25/1 though, which is irritating. On the plus side for me personally I had 100/1 on Cook first, Rudolph last on Skybet, yes After-timing makes you look like a dick.

Cowboys -3 @ Bears: Total – 43

Week 14 kicks off with a matchup of two 6-6 teams. Which on the surface seems surprising given how the season of each team has gone. The Bears are derided for their ineptitude and for having a QB who will be out of a job in the summer. The Cowboys have been lauded for a lot of the season for their offensive prowess and ability to score points.

These teams are in completely different spots in their divisions as well, the Bears in the North are a couple of games behind the Vikings in 2nd, and 3 behind the Packers at the top of the division, while the Cowboys have been shite recently, yet are still top of the NFC East due to the failing of the Eagles.

Da Bears

Trubisky. Urgh. He’s played better recently, but that’s been against trash defenses, wins vs the Lions twice and the Giants. His 3 passer ratings over 100 this year have been Lions twice and Redskins once. He’s shit. I’m done.

He has targeted Anthony Miller a shitload recently, to quantify that amount, 33 targets in 3 weeks, and it paid off fully last week with 140 yards from 9 catches on Thanksgiving. He scored 7 TDs in his rookie year so you could argue he’s due a score. Allen Robinson has been great this year, he’s a talented guy but has been stuck with Blake Bortles and then an even poorer QB the last few years. He’s been targeted like a boss too, just the 28 in the last 3 games for him, he’s scored the last two games running, 5 on the season with 850 yards. IF Taylor Gabriel is out I see no reason why these two won’t eat up the targets again tonight, and I assume Gabriel is out. You can have a longshot punt on Javon Wims or Cordarelle Patterson if you want. They’ll probably get a few plays and will be big odds.

Mr. Horstead scored from the TE spot last week, I was on JP Holtz, the other TE, I’m going to go and assume Holtz is more a blocking TE while they rate good ole Jesper more as a pass catcher.

Running back has been a right two and eight for the Bears so far, they can’t get anything going. The rookie David Montgomery was expected by most to be great this year. He isn’t. He averages 3.5 yards per carry, has 6 TDs this year, 5 on the ground, and his first receiving score last week. I had him o765.5 rush yards on the season he’s on target for 792. Might scrape a winner out of it yet. Tarik Cohen is actually quite exciting, well he was last year anyway, they don’t seem to have figured out how to use him this time around. He’s an adept pass catcher, and can beat anyone anywhere on the field with his quickness. If they get behind tonight he may get some more use.

It looks like they’re without Akiem Hicks again this week, and one of their best pieces in the secondary Prince Amukamara is listed as doubtful this week which would be a big issue for the Bears as their secondary hasn’t exactly been great recently anyway. Without Hicks they’ve been pretty damn poor defending the run as well.

The Cowboys.

Dak Prescott leads the league in passing yards this season, he’s third in TDs and 3rd in QBR for the season. It’s safe to say my opinion has improved on him. I’m still not sure he could do it without his amazing offensive line, as proven when they lost to the Jets without 2 pieces of it. BUT He’s been very good this year.

It helps that he’s got a great trio of wide receivers to throw the ball to. Amari Cooper seems constantly banged up but has practised fully all week. His home/road splits are extreme though, so while you’ll likely play him in fantasy I want no part of needing him to do something with my money, his best road game this year was 80 yards vs the Giants, 48 his second best. When he’s poor Michael Gallup has been able to step up well this season and has been pretty good this season although he’s only scored three times he’s nearing 800 yards on the year at a healthy 16.2 average. Randall Cobb has done enough when needed as well and lead the team vs the Pats in the rain a couple of weeks ago. Ventell Bryant scored last week… who? Tavon Austin keeps mixing in randomly.

Jason Witten is somehow still the man at tight end, at some point they’ve surely got to move over to Blake Jarwin who has the same 3 TDs as Witten on less than half the receptions. Witten in fairness was the key man last week 6-42 and 1 against a Bills team who are great vs the TE.

Should probably mention the RBs, right. Zeke Elliott isn’t having a great season by his standards, a mere 6th in rushing yards at a tick under 1,000 for the season so far, 7 TDs. They don’t seem to use him in the passing game this year which was a huge part of the game for him last season. He’s still good and should eat in this one against a poor run D. Tony Pollard has been getting mixed in as well but is questionable with an ankle, and I’m assuming is out.

Their defense is middle of the pack against the run and the pass, has been gashed a little recently though.

Summary

Home team on a Thursday night is usually a good look, but as they’ve both had 7 days to plan it shouldn’t be too much of an effect on the Cowboys.

I’m not touching either side here, I’ve got to think the Cowboys win, but neither team have been reliable at all this season so it’s not worth risking money on.

Zeke should have a good game, I’m liking Miller receptions again.

Skybet have their TNF RaB offer on, bet £10 get a free £5. Fresh off my personal 100/1 winner on MNF I’ll have a dabble on a few of the bigger odds ones.

  • Blake Jarwin anytime – 8.50 (PP) – 1 point
  • Anthony Miller o4.5 receptions – 2.01 (Unibet)

Good luck if you’re on anything tonight. A quite intriguing game actually.


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Adam.

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