After the WR post last week I had intended on doing a couple more posts a little more in-depth, but time got away from me, and frankly I wasn’t really feeling it and I wasn’t really confident in anything at all. There’s been a few posts going around about how little information is about and how mock drafts this year could well be the worst in history with so little talk between teams and so few whispers due to ole’ Covid-19. So I was struggling.
This week however I’ve been reading a bit more, I’ve listened to more and I’ve got a few which I’m getting more confident in as the week goes on.
If you’re in the UK, you probably are if you’re reading this. All 3 days are on Sky sports mix, so you don’t need the sports subscription for it. I believe it’s on gamepass as well, although I did hear it wasn’t the free version, not sure whether that’s true or not as it’s surely on nfl network and that was on the one they’re offering for free at the moment.
The only thing I backed from the last thread was more Offensive Lineman vs Wide Receivers. I think there’s still legs in that although the odds have been cut now, just 1.57 now at William Hill, and not available at all on Redzone any more. I’m a little less confident in that one now as the draft nears, but still think we’ll get at least 6 Offensive linemen and can’t see there being more WR than that.
The Zack Baun bet was probably done a day after with the news he had a diluted sample at the combine. It could mean his stock dropping and someone getting a bargain, there’s still hope of him sneaking in the back of the first, but seems less likely now than when posted.
Talking of sneaking in the back of the first… I don’t think Ross Blacklock will do. You can get 10/11 for him to be taken after pick 32 on William Hill. He’s a DT, the only spot I’ve seen him mocked has been to the 49ers at 31 as replacement to DeForest Buckner. I think there’s a more than 50% chance that they trade out of that spot, so I can’t see Blacklock being taken by anyone else in the first.
Grant Delpit is another who seems to have dropped in recent mock drafts. It looks like he’ll be second round as well meaning Xavier McKinney as the only safety in the first round. His o/u on position is 34.5 with it being 4/5 to the under, so the better way of playing this one is going for under 1.5 safeties in the first round at 1.90 at Ladbrokes/Coral
A slightly more positive one. Andrew Thomas u11.5 – I personally think he’ll be taken by the Browns at 10, but at 365 you can get the Jets as well at odds of 1.50 (It was 1.71 until earlier today which is annoying) – Alternatively I could trust myself and go for before pick 11 at 1.77 on Will Hill
Cole Kmet is thought to by most to be the first TE off the board. I’m not confident in that happening, but either way I don’t think there’s a need for teams to take him early. He’s set at 45.5 on 365 at 1.80, however only 41.5 on Paddypower at 1.83. So as I like him to be taken later I like the Paddypower price.
Second to the Kmet thoughts I like Adam Trautman to be the first tight end off the board at 7/1 on Skybet. Kmet is more of the traditional blocking tight end which aren’t as popular in the league now, Trautman is raw, but athletically gifted, think a poor mans Evan Engram who was drafted 1st a few years back, basically a bulky receiver.
There’s probably some good money to be made on whether a team takes Offense or Defense with their first pick as well, Ravens taking defense at 1.75 is probably the best line there although there’s a few odds-against which will win. 2/1 for Cardinals to take defense is tempting, some talk of Derrick Brown being there for them at 8.
I think there’s a small chance of Clyde being the first RB, he’s more adept at pass catching than Swift and Taylor and that’s the way things are going in the league now. Looking at 8/1 for him at 888 according to oddschecker. I don’t think there will be an RB taken in the 1st round but it’s not one I’m confident in.
So… in summary. Things I’m on;
- Ross Blacklock o32.5 – 1.91 (WillHill)
- Andrew Thomas u10.5 – 1.77 (WillHill)
- u1.5 safeties in the first round – 1.90 (Ladbrokes)
- Cole Kmet o41.5 – 1.83 (Paddypower)
- 1st TE drafted; Adam Trautman – 7/1 (Skybet)
Prices are from Wednesday night so may have changed, they do quite frequently on draft props. Shop around
Good luck with whatever you’re on, I’ve not done a competition this year, however @Full10Yards and @BettingFlea (on twitter) are both running comps which I’ve entered. So jump in if you fancy a chance to win a few quid and prizes.