It’s Easter Sunday, the country has been in lockdown for nearly three weeks now and boredom reigns. Well, for most anyway. As a Postman I’ve been working like normal and enjoying the sunshine. I was meant to land in Spain today for a week of sun, pool and beaches but alas. Times are weird. STAY INSIDE. STAY SAFE.
So instead of flying over to Spain, the wife is on Zelda, the daughter is stuffing her face with Easter egg so I’ll have a look around the draft props; With no sport on at all there’s a lot of markets in a lot of places this year which should hopefully give us some decent value.
First off, I’m not a tape-jockey, I don’t really watch college football as taking up my Saturday nights as well as Sundays may lead to divorce. So I get most of my info from mock drafts, from talking to people who know more than me and from following a lot of good beat-writers and writers in general on twitter.
I’ll have another look during draft week as it’s a fairly fluid situation and there is always some late breaking news which changes the situation, for now I’m having a nose to see if there’s any value out there. Obviously these markets have been out for a while so I’ve probably missed a few bets I would have taken. Things like o5.5 offensive linemen were apparently around a week or two ago, that number is 6.5 now which is a little too close to where I think it will be.
Paddypower, William Hill, Skybet, Bet365, 888, Redzone and seemingly SportNation (who I guess must pay oddschecker) have a lot of markets available. As always it’s worth shopping around for prices/lines on these as the odds vary wildly across the market.
I won’t be taking 1st pick, 2nd/3rd of the order of these as the possibility of trades mixes them up considerably. – For the record I think it will be Burrow, Young, then a QB. I think the Lions will be able to trade out of 3.
I don’t think there will be a WR in the top 10, it actually seems like, for now, the top 10 is fairly well set; Joe Burrow, Jeff Okudah, Chase Young, Tua Tagovailoa, Isaiah Simmons, Justin Herbert, Tristan Wirfs, Derrick Brown, Jedrick Wills, Mekhi Becton are the consensus. 3 QBs, 1 Edge, 1 DT, 1 “LB/Weapon”, 1 CB, 3 OL. The only player I can see breaking that is Andrew Thomas with the Browns at #10. Available at 11/10 on PP.
Wide Receiver bets – 1st drafted, o/u, totals.
I think the Jets will take WR. They invested in the offensive line in free agency and while I don’t particularly rank any of the people they signed the fact they spent the money there probably means they’ll look elsewhere in the draft and after losing Robby Anderson reciever is a position of needs. The 3 at the top of the board are interesting Jeudy was the top guy when the college season finished, but since then CeeDee Lambs hype has been building and Henry Ruggs III had a great combine to elevate him up the board as well.
This one really depends on what the Jets are looking for. They’ve got Crowder in the slot, Breshad Perriman to replace Robby Anderson, then pretty much nothing else. Enunwa is decent but very injury prone.
The market has moved on Ruggs being the first off the board in the states, you can still get him at 4/1 over here (Redzone) as low as 2/1 in places. Supposedly a few teams have him at the top of their board for WR. I’m not sure the Jets need a speedster after paying Perriman so then it’s between CD and the Judge. Best price on Lamb – 2/1 (WillHill) Best on Juedy – 10/11 (365)
I like Lamb. NFL.com draft tracker has him ranked one iota above Jeudy at 6.81 compared to 6.80 – So it is negligible and both should be stars, so I’ll take the higher odds.
If it’s not the Jets taking a WR then it will probably be the Raiders. They could take Ruggs. They’ve not got a whole lot at WR, Renfrow came on well last year, Tyrell Williams will be hoping to stay fit, so I think they need a 1 and Jeudy/Lamb are more suited for that than Ruggs.
Jerry Jeudy – o/u 12.5; over (later than the 12th pick) best priced – 1.90 (Paddypower) – Under 1.75 (888)
CeeDee Lamb – o/u 12.5; over 1.90 (Redzone) and under 1.83 (Paddypower and RZ) – o/u 13.5 best priced over 2.30 (WillHill) under 1.67 (888)
Henry Ruggs III – a bit of variation on Mr. Ruggs… o13.5 on Paddypower – over – 1.73, under 2.00 – 14.5 on WillHill and 888, 2.05 for later than 14th, 1.80 for before 14th pick. Then 15.5 on Redzone – over at 2.10, under at 1.71 – Jets (11th), Raiders (12th) and 49ers (13th) could all pick WR.
That’s the top 3 dealt with. There’s lines on others too.
Justin Jefferson – 21.5 – Best priced over – 2.0 (PP and Redzone) – Under – 1.91 (WillHill/888)
Tee Higgins – 32.5 – later 1.61, before 2.30 (WillHill) and 33.5 at 2.0 and 1.73 respectively. – However there is a no-lose bet here. Take the under 32.5 on WillHill, so you’re saying he’ll be first round. Then the 2.10 on Paddypower for Higgins to NOT be drafted first round.
Total first round WRs.
So you’ve got 3 guaranteed, and most likely Justin Jefferson as well. Then the likes of Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Leviska Shenault, Denzel Mims all around the turn of the first round.
365, 888, Skybet and Hills are set at 5.5 – Over 1.50 on Skybet, 1.44 on the others, Under – 2.80 on 888/Hills.
Paddypower are at 6.5 – Under 1.36, over 2.7
The latest mocks seem to be 6 WRs, a mixture of the guys listed above making the first round.
Should I take over 5.5 in the first at 1.50? Probably. I wouldn’t want to take under 6.5, with it being such a deep class there’s always a chance of a run later on, the likes of the Eagles, Packers, Vikings even the Ravens could all do with help there lower down the first round.
First round picks?
Paddypower has quite a few of these guys as yes/no to be drafted the first round.
- Brandon Aiyuk – Yes – 2.25, No – 1.57
- Justin Jefferson – Yes – 1.14, No – 5.0
- Tee Higgins – Yes – 1.67, No – 2.10
888 actually has more players offered up to be drafted in the first. (No “no” option)
- Brandon Aiyuk – 2.00
- Tee Higgins – 1.75
- Denzel Mims – 1.60
- Jalen Raegor – 2.05
- Leviska Shenault – 2.10
Skybet has Denzel Mims first round – 1.44 (not touching that one)
Redzone have number of WR vs number of Offensive Linemen taken, both sides at 1.86.
I think you’ve got a guaranteed 5 WR (Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Jefferson, at least 1 other). I think there’s a guaranteed 6 OL (Becton, Wirfs, Wills, Thomas, Jones, Jackson) then possibly one other.
Got to take the OL on this one. The WR class is deep so teams can afford to wait. OL runs out quicker.
After all this, I think my only bet to come from it will be more offensive linemen than WRs at 1.86 on Redzone. – If you haven’t got one sign up for a Redzone account as far as I’m aware it’s not available on any other book in the UK at the moment. (Cheers Tony for letting me know about it)
A bonus one, without too much analysis, and because I think it’s a good price which will shorten – His stock has been rising by the day. He was down around mid 50s a week or two ago, now seems to be in the first round more often than not.
Zack Baun to be drafted in the first round – 2.20 (888)
Ok, so the Baun bet made sense, but yesterday (14th April) – It was announced he gave a diluted sample at the combine. He says it was because he drank a load of water to put on some quick weight, but the worry is that it’s masking a drug issue. I’d imagine that will result in him falling in the draft. Apologies if you got on when I posted, but I didn’t know about this obviously. Fingers crossed still