Falcons +4 @ Vikings: 54
A new coach in town for the Falcons after Dan Quinn was finally removed from the building. Raheem Morris takes over, he’s coached both sides of the ball so I’m not sure what that means really.
They have Julio back and Calvin Ridley is probably good to go as well, will they get a bounce from not having Quinn there? Weird situation, obviously things weren’t working on defense, they’ve allowed 32 points per game this year. That’s the area they need to concentrate on.
The Vikings should put up points in this one, Adam Thielen has 6 TDs this year, 5 from the redzone. He’s scored in all bar one games and had 17 receptions in their last two games. The Vikes offense has looked good since they moved Justin Jefferson outside and the rookie had a couple of 100 yard games before slowing down last week.
Dalvin Cook is out so Alexander Mattison will be starting for them, he’s a very good backup and will put up numbers, but I’m looking for a decent price on Mike Boone who scored a few with Cook out of the side last year. 3/1 the best price for him at Skybet. Not great, but I won’t be taking A Matt at 4/6.
The Vikings have won the first quarter in every game this year, they’ve scored in every quarter for the last 3 games and covered the spread in each of them.
- Vikings win 1st quarter – 5/6ish – 1.87 best price on Betfred apparently.
- Mike Boone anytime – 3/1
Ravens -10 @ Eagles: 46.5
Spread was 7.5 when I drafted this a day or two ago, now -10. That’s a move.
My preview on SBR. Tough one to call with it being that half point over the 7. But the Ravens beat up on poor teams and should give Carson Wentz a whole world of pain.
Still lean to the Ravens covering, but 10 points on the road isn’t a bet for me, probably over the total.
Bears +1 @ Panthers: 44.5
The Bears are somehow 4-1 with a +5 point differential on the season. Unsurprisingly all 1-score games involving them. Have they improved since Foles took over? Not really, more of the same. They’re looking good on defense which seems to be overlooked by a lot, including myself.
Offensively they’re Bleh. They move the ball well enough but when Jimmy Graham is 2nd in Redzone targets this year it’s hard to really care that much about them, David Montgomery got their first rushing TD of the season last week. Allen Robinson has been very good since Foles took over and he’ll put up numbers tonight as well against a young Panthers secondary.
The Bears are still yet to score in the 3rd quarter. They’ve scored 55 points in the 4th quarter so far this year though. More than they’ve scored in all first halves this year.
The Panthers are 3-2. They had a win total of 5.5 this year. Safe to say they’ve over-performed this year. Teddy Bridgewater has been good, he DJ Moore and Robby Anderson seem simpatico and are doing well on offense. Weirdly they’ve won all 3 games without Christian McCaffrey in the line-up with Mike Davis doing a great job in place of the best paid RB in the league.
Daivs has a TD in each of the last 3 games, at least 91 yards in them as well and the only game he’s been under 8 receptions is of course the one I bet on him o5.5 where he finished with 5.
I want the Panthers to win, but I just can’t back against the Bears at the moment, they’re boring but they are winning. Nothing on total either.
Bengals +7.5 @ Colts: 45.5
The Bengals were dismal last week, I pretty much gave up watching them and didn’t even notice their big summer signing going out for the rest of the season with injury. Typical Bengals. They got the shit blitzed out of them by the Ravens and had no response. The coaching is lacklustre, the WRs aren’t getting open, the OL isn’t making holes, the RBs are getting hit in the backfield every single time. It’s more of the same after last year.
Joe Burrow looked like a rookie last week but he’ll have more time this against a Colts team who don’t get many sacks or hits. The Colts are the #1 defense according to DVOA 1st v the Pass, 4th v the Rush. So it won’t be easy for them.
AJ Green is fit, not sure if that’s a good thing or not to be honest, Auden Tate likely out so John Ross gets another chance. I’d love to think they’ve planned some stuff to use his pace to get open and provide some quick passes but I’m just not sure I trust the coaching any more.
The Colts lost to the Browns last week, and Rivers looked old. They’ve tried to hide him because he might not have the arm any more. They’ve actually been pretty poor to watch on offense. They want to be run heavy and Jonathan Taylor has had a lot of carries at poor efficiency, he’ll likely get a lot and should do well against a poor Bengals run D.
Big Mo Alie-Cox is out for this one, so might be a decent price on Trey Burton… I was wrong. 9/4 best price.
Bengals had been keeping games close until last week, they’re 3-2 ATS. The Colts are 3-2 ATS as well. They’ve won the 1st half in 4 of the 5 games and scored in every quarter the last 3 weeks.
Nothing on full game spread, look for Colts 1st qtr, 1st half spreads – I’d say over on total but that will need the Bengals to actually score and the Colts have shown they can shut teams down.
Browns +3 @ Steelers: 51
Game of the week comes from the AFC North, both team sit on 4 wins, the Browns 4-1, the Steelers unbeaten on 4-0 after their enforced bye week. The Browns are the best rushing team in the league while the Steelers are the #1 run defense, last week they allowed Miles Sanders to rush for 80 yards from 11 carries, 1 of his attempts was 74 yards. They kept Barkley to nothing before his injury.
This should be a cracking game, but Baker Mayfield is coming in with a rib injury, Odell Beckham is listed with an illness. Jarvis Landry is playing but has been on the injury report this week too. It’s not great for them health-wise. They’re also without Wyatt Teller who’s apparently been one of the best rated guards this year.
Kareem Hunt did the job taking over from Nick Chubb last week finishing with 72 yards on the ground. He’s scored in all bar one game this year through the air and on the ground. He’s one of the better backs in the league so it’s not surprise that he’s doing well.
Myles Garrett was banned at the end of last season for forcibly trying to replace Mason Rudolphs helmet. Remarkably the Browns are somehow viewing it as him being the hard-done-by man in that situation and trying to use it as motivation, a revenge game angle. He claimed after the fact that Rudolph used a racist slur against him, unproven. He’s been brilliant this year though with 6 sacks and 3 forced fumbles already this year.
The Steelers are remarkable, quite possible the greatest team we’ve seen this year. They’ve been dominating the likes of the Giants, Broncos without their QB for half the game, the Eagles who tied with the Bengals and the Texans. Teams who have a 3-15-1 record so far this year. DOMINATING them. Despite their incredible brilliance it’s their first 4-0 start since 1979. Somewhat remarkable given what a successful, well run, squeaky clean heroic franchise they are.
Big Ben has been good since returning from injury throwing for multiple TDs in every game. In comparison to what they had last year he’s basically Joe Montana back there. He’s been fine.
Whether you follow American Football or not, you know one thing in life and that’s that the Steelers are literally the only team capable of drafting wide receivers, we all know what a success the likes of Demarcus Ayers, Sammie Coates, Dri Archer and Markus Wheaton went on to have stellar careers, but they’ve found another one this year who put up 4 TDs last week against the Eagles. Chase Claypool looked great, rushing in 1 and getting 3 receiving TDs after Diontae Johnson went down and he played a more prominent role. James Washington is another who is apparently brilliant with 5 TDs in 3 years, while Juju is doing well now he’s not having to be the #1, he’s scored 3 TDs this year.
The run game has been fine, James Conner keeps plodding on. That’s about it in that area.
Defensively they’re brilliant up front but have been giving up a lot of points. TJ Watt is looking good for defensive player of the year though with 4.5 sacks through 4 games. I believes even though they’re a game short of most teams that they’re leading the league in QB pressures.
Should be a good game, but having your three main men in the passing game coming in injured isn’t good. The Steelers should win this one on their inevitable march to the Superbowl.
(I didn’t manage to jinx them with praise last week, so really going for it this week) Numbers – Browns are 3-2 ATS, the Steelers 3-1. Overs 4-1 and 3-1 for them. Unsurprisingly the Steelers dominate the head-to-head. 24-5-1 ATS over the last 30 games since 2005.
The Browns have won 4 out of 5 first halves and gone on to win each of those games.
Steelers win and cover, total goes over.
Broncos +8 @ Patriots: 45
Injury hit game here, Drew Lock plays, Noah Fant and Melvin Gordon don’t. Cam Newton plays for the Patriots.
Not one I’ll be betting on although Philip Lindsay will be the lead back for the Broncos so o53.5 rush yards is probably a good bet. Jerry Juedy is back, but I’d imagine the Pats will concentrate on slowing him leaving not a whole lot of talent to throw the ball to for Denver.
The Patriots will obviously be better with Cam back and Damien Harris should be their lead back. He did well in his lone start last week but the running game changes with Cam Newton there so I’ll be staying away from his props.
The Patriots have only scored in the first quarter in 1 games this year. They’re 2-2 ATS and have won both halves in both of their wins this year.
No bets, but Belichick has had 2 weeks to plan for this, got to lean to them covering.
Lions -3 @ Jaguars: 54
The Lions coming off their bye will be desperate for the win and the Jaguars seem to be the perfect get right game for many teams, losing to the Bengals, Dolphins and Texans in recent weeks. They’re not good.
Trusting the Lions coaching staff to do the sensible thing is a fools errand, but I’m still kind of hoping for it this week. I think Deandre Swift has looked good in minimal usage and hoping that the early bye will allow them to assess themselves and get him more involved.
Golladay and Jones are back healthy and Stafford will have appreciated the week off to try and re-group. They’ll still likely run Adrian Peterson 20 times in this one, but we’ll see.
The Lions get out to leads then fuck it all up. They were 14 up against the Saints yet still trailed at the end of the half. It turns out the worst place this team can be is 14 points ahead.
The Jags have been able to put up points and Shenault led them in rec. yards last week. DJ Chark is questionable for tonight but looks like he’ll go. James Robinson has been good on the ground and through the air with at least 4 receptions in the last 3 games. o3.5 receptions is plus money tonight.
Lions win and cover. Probably over total but not touching that.
Texans +3.5 @ Titans: 53
The Texans got their first win of the season last week after getting rid of Bill O’Brien as head coach. They said they wanted to get the deep ball going and did it with more play action than they’d previously used. It’s tough to judge whether they were any good as they were playing the Jags, but it was a comfortable win in the end.
Brandin Cooks led the team in yards with 161 and a TD, while Fuller and Fells also found the endzone for them. I’d expect a similar gameplan from them this week although it will be more difficult against a better Titans team.
The Titans are on the rare Tue-Sunday rest spot, so it’s been a short week for them to plan for this one after demolishing the Bills on Tuesday. They’ve scored in every quarter for the last 3 weeks in a row and are 61-61 in scoring 1st half and 2nd half this season. They’re a constant team who found their redzone offense again in their last game.
they scored 6 from 6 in the redzone and targeted the tight ends again with Jonnu Smith scoring twice, Henry got a couple on the ground and AJ Brown returned to the lineup with a TD as well, he’s a specimen.
Their defense did it for them in the week and should do well against the Texans, they don’t get much pressure on QBs though so that will help Watson.
Texans are 1-4 ATS, Titans 1-3 ATS. It’s too tough for me to pick this one, I’d lean Texans as they NEED the game, but it’s tough.
Washington FT +2.5 @ Giants: 43
Nothing much to say on these two. Kyle Allen will be starting, I like Gibson receptions, he had 5 last week with a line of 2.5 or 3.5 and most of it was with Allen.
Jets +9 @ Dolphins: 47
The Jets have been inept. They’ve scored double digits in just 1 quarter this year and have a point differential of -86 points. They’ve under-performed against the spread too with a cover margin of -11. That’s terrible. 0-5 Straight up, 0-5 against the spread, totals are 3-2 in their games. They’ve scored 15 points per game on average.
They released Lev Bell in the week so Frank Gore and LaMycal Perine will have a bigger role in the backfield. Joe Flacco is starting at QB for them, they welcome back Breshad Perriman finally which at least gives them another target there while Jeff Smith has been leading the team in targets in recent weeks. 2.5 receptions is his line… They’re just so shit.
The Dolphins on the other hand come in on a high after smashing the 49ers in their own home last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been on it, and playing well, 350 yards and 3 TDs for him last week, Preston Williams took advantage of the spot for his best game of the season while Devante Parker found the endzone as well.
Myles Gaskin had another 5 receptions in the passing game where they’ve been using him a lot, they might not have to in this one though so I’ll probably give that line a miss after being on it in recent weeks. Jordan Howard didn’t get his usual 1 yard rush for a score this week, with the way this game is expected to go he’ll probably get a few chances.
I can’t ever take the Dolphins as 9 point favourites. They have scored every qtr for the last 3 games, and scoring evenly across the quarters all season. They’ve been beating the spread by an average of 9 points.
Packers -1.5 @ Buccaneers: 55
What a game to round off the night (well, the time I’ll be awake and watching anyway) The Packers have been brilliant this year, no other way to say it. They’re 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, they’ve scored in every quarter so far, covering the spread by an average of 11 points. They’ve been killing teams and a lot of it has been without Davante Adams who returns tonight.
Aaron Rodgers. He’s been great. After a few poor years he seems like he’s found his feet again this year and has made the likes of MVS and Robert Tonyan viable betting prospects. 327 yards and 4 TDs for him, still no interceptions on the year, and leading the league in QBR. All without his main man.
Davante Adams returns tonight after a month off, you’ve got to think he’ll be fully fit for this one, the one full game he’s played he ended with 156 yards and 2 TDs, he abused that Vikings defense. In his place, last game Robert Tonyan had 98 yards and 3 scores, the running back Jamaal Williams nearly hit 100 yards, they were the leading receivers last week, a TE and an RB. It’s going to be a whole ton of Adams tonight against the best defense they’ve faced, by far.
Aaron Jones has carried on where he left off last season and even with the bye week in the background he’s 5th in yards and 6th in TDs this season, scoring in every game. The Buccs run D is a ranked 3rd so it won’t be easy for him either but they are missing Vita Vea who’s been a beast at the heart of the line and a big loss for them.
This will be the first game the Buccs are fully fit on offense as well with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans back healthier after a 10 days break from their loss to the Bears. It gives Tom Brady more targets finally and he’ll be happy for that after ballsing up at the end of the game last week when driving for the win. Brady has thrown 12 Tds, 4 INTs and has a QBR ranking him 21st.
Ronald Jones has been getting the rock on the ground with Fournette missing out recently and he’s been running well with 100 yards in the last 2 games. Fournette is officially questionable for tonight so it might be Rojo and Vaughn again.
Godwin is a huge return for them, he was expected to be the most targeted guy with Brady there and he had 150 yards and a TD in the first two games of the season for them. Mike Evans has been playing hobbled for the last couple of games so the break will have helped him get healthy as well.
They have been good on defense, DVOA has them ranked 2nd overall, 4th vs the pass, 3rd vs the rush.
Numbers for this one, the Packers have scored every quarter this year, but have only 16 points in the first quarter of games (56,45,35 in qtr 2,3,4) – While the Bucs have won the 1st quarter in 4 of their 5 games with 48 pts scored, just under 10 per game.
I think the Packers keep on rolling but the players returning from injury on each side make it a little tougher to call. So I’ve got to go to the stats and take the Bucs to win the first quarter at decent odds in places offering it. 2.38 on Skybet.
Rams -3 @ 49ers: 51.5
They must have thought this was going to be a cracker when they picked this one for SNF. But the 49ers have been hit by injuries and as a result have not been great so far this season.
The Rams have been good, they seem to have sorted out the offensive line and Goff is great when he gets time to throw. They’re sitting second behind the Seahawks at 4-1, covering the spread 3 of 5, and they’ve won the 2nd half in every game they’ve played this season.
The running back group has been performing well but it’s tough to figure who will do what each week especially now Cam Akers is back for them. Darrel Henderson has looked good but they play a hot-hand apporach so it could be anyone on a given week. I’d lean to Henderson being the man of course, but bleh.
They move the ball around well through the air, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp form one of the best duos in the league, both have 300+ yards and 2 TDs this season and they like to use Woods on Jet sweeps near the goalline as well. Tyler Higbee was a beast at the end of the year but this season is sharing TE snaps with Gerald Everett. He’s the one who got more last week, leading the team in rec. yards.
They’ve been good on defense and Aaron Donald is showing why he usually wins DPOY, he’s a destroyer in the middle of their defensive line.
The 49ers started Jimmy Garoppolo last week but he was terrible and clearly hampered by his ankle so they took him out at half time to let him have more time ot recover. He’s back this week though.
Kittle leads the team in receptions but was under-used last week with just 4. Deebo Samuel was easing himself back into it, Brandon Aiyuk is looking for, and Raheem Mostert was back at RB for them. So they’re slowly getting healthier on offense. The defense is still hit hard though. They’re not getting pass rush of covering receivers. It’s not been good for them.
The 49ers are 2-3 ATS, 4-1 to the overs on totals. They’ve only won 1 2nd half this year and have a -4.7 ATS margin.
It’s been a big swing from the look ahead line but I’ve got to take the Rams to win and cover in this one. Stats suggest overs.
- Steelers -3.5
- Lions -3
- Vikings -4
- Antonio Gibson o3.5 receptions – 1.86 (365)
- Tim Patrick o3.5 receptions – 1.71 (365)
- James Robinson o3.5 receptions – 2.10 (365)
- Jeff Smith o2.5 receptions – 1.57 (365)
- Mark Andrews – 2.2 (888)
- Mike Boone – 4.00 (Skybet)
- D’Andre Swift – 4.00 (Skybet)
- Adam Shaheen 22/1 (888) – 1pt
- Vikings win 1st quarter – 1.87 (Betfred)
- Bucs win 1st quarter – 2.45 (888)
- Ravens score every qtr – 2.50 (365)
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