Week 3; Sunday Preview #NFLTwitter #RuleTheJungle

Obviously first of all I have to mention the gofundme set up to support Mike Tagliere’s family after he sadly passed away over the weekend from Covid. From messages I’d noticed from his wife he had been on a ventilator for a while now, but you just figure people will get through it, unfortunately this time it didn’t happen.

I hadn’t had any interaction with him myself, but listened to some bits and read some, he had been on Full10Yards a few times and seemed a genuine, nice guy. A horrible loss. #RipTags

https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-the-tagliere-family If you are able to donate.


Right. Football time.

There are a lot of tight spreads at the books this weekend, there’s very little which are jumping out at me as blatantly wrong unlike many weekends, however there are a ton of teaser legs this week as it’s a real mix of “shit vs shit” and top drawer fixtures this week.

I had nothing on Thursday, although there will obviously be a full in-depth preview on the Bengals vs. Jaguars coming up next Thursday as the bestest Thursday night fixture of the entire year.

Arizona Cardinals -8 @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 51.5

It’s safe to say these two have had differing starts to the season, the Cards are 2-0 after scraping a win against the Vikings last week while the Jaguars have confirmed their #1 pick status by losing both games.

Should be an easy win for the Cardinals, despite DeAndre ‘Nuk’ Hopkins being listed as limited in practise. Kyler Murray is now 2nd favourite for MVP after his start behind Patrick Mahomes, of course it’s a stupid one to get involved in until half way through the year, but he’s had a good start, rushing in a TD in each and throwing 7 TDs this season. I think they’ll start Nuk, even if it’s just a distraction as it seemed after the first quarter last week.

That distraction allowed Rondale Moore to get WIIIIIIDE open as he has done in both games so far, he’s sitting on 182 yards so far, 11th in the league, and is leading the league, by some way, in yards after the catch. AJ Green scored last week and will look for a few more catches this week as will Maxxxxxx Williams at tight end.

There’s not much more to say on the Cardinals, the run game isn’t good. This is a fade of the Jags as much as anything, Trevor Lawrence is playing with reckless abandon and just lobbing the ball wherever. He’s had 5 INTs in two games, and 4 TDs. They are a shambles at the moment, but was can assume Marvin Jones will lead their WR group. Their run game has been ineffective so far.

Enough about this shit. Cardinals should win and cover, but they’re one of the many, many good teaser legs this weekend.

Atlanta Falcons +3 @ New York Giants: 47.5

Talking of shit. Both come in at 0-2, but both at least showed a little fire last week with the Falcons losing due to pick-6s last week and the Giants going offside on a missed field goal costing them the win as Washington scored the re-take.

The Falcons are seriously deficient on offensive line and it’s killing them, the run-game stinks too, but they may have landed on something with Cordarelle Patterson taking a lot of snaps last week, finishing with a score on the ground and through the air. It’s been said it could be a 60-40 share to Davis this week. Russell Gage will be missing out, so more and more for Pitts, Ridley and er… some other fella? I hope Patterson who’s fairly well priced.

The Giants should have Saquon Barkley back healthier than he has been all year, he did play 85% of snaps last week but didn’t do much with them, he should look better here as the Falcons defense has been terrible so far this year. It doesn’t get much pressure which will help Daniel Jones. Jones has led the team in rushing after nearly 100 last week, I think he’ll do it again this week but if Saquon rushes more then it could detract from his yards. Evan Engram hopes he’ll be back for this one, that will take away from Sterling Shepard who has started the year with 13 of 19 targets for 207 yards. Slayton gets the downfield targets still, and Kenny Golladay seems hit or miss so far in his career. Doesn’t help he’s nursing injury again.

I… think the Falcons win, and therefore cover. Maybe. Could be horrible, could be surprisingly fun. I’ve no idea here frankly.

Baltimore Ravens -8 @ Detroit Lions: 50.5

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/ravens-lions-free-nfl-picks-for-week-3/207159/

A shit-ton of injuries for the Ravens, but they’re playing one of the worst teams in the league. Although the Lions were in front at the half in against the Packers before Goff’s tiny hands fell apart in the rain last week.

The Ravens tend to beat up on shit teams, and they really should do here but the injuries are tough for them as they keep piling up on the team. Ty’son Williams may well get more yards but Latavius Murray has been getting the TDs in the backfield. Marquise Brown has 6 receptions in each game so far, and despite Lamar Jackson having a poorly tummy in the week I’m sure he’ll be fine to go.

The Lions have had injuries too and frankly shouldn’t want to win this year, they need to rebuild. Tyrell Williams is off to IR so Quez Watkins probably takes the WR1 role for them, but it’ll be TJ Hockenson and the RBs getting the targets once again, and he’s scored in both games so far.

I mean, Ravens win, but with the players they’re missing I’m just not sure on the spread.

Chicago Bears +7 @ Cleveland Browns: 44.5

Justin Fields is going to get the start with Andy Dalton injured, he was terrible against the Bengals when he came in last week so they better hope he’s better with a week of first-team snaps in training. Although even if he’s wrong, the Bears aren’t winning the Superbowl this year so theoretically they should just get Fields all the snaps they can this year, it doesn’t help the O-Line is poor too, but Allen Robinson is a very good receiver and David Montgomery is a surprisingly good yet boring running back. The defense is their strength still intercepting Joe Burrow three attempts in a row last week with one providing them 6 points.

The Browns have a better offensive line than the Bengals (shock) so should be able to protect Baker and open some lanes for Chubb and Hunt. They will need to do a lot of the work as the passing game hasn’t got going really, Jarvis Landry went out early last week so most targets were to tight ends, Hooper, Bryant and Njoku (12 of the 21 targets last week went to them). He is out for this one, but they welcome back Odell Beckham finally from his ACL injury. It’s a watching brief only on him this week and seeing how he does after such a long time out.

I want nothing to do with Fields on his first start, the nerds think he’ll get double-digit carries and move the chains with his legs, we’ll see on that, but I don’t want the Browns covering that many points either. So… nothing on the main lines. Lean to the Browns covering.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 43

Ooooooo boy, the first of the two meetings between these teams for the season and it’s riddled with injuries already on one side of the field. The Steelers come into this one without their two main pass-rushers with TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith both ruled out early on, the plus side for them is that it seems Devin Bush will be back at linebacker at least.

Diontae Johnson is ruled out on offense though which opens up a ton of targets (11 per game) for Juju, Claypool and possibly even James Washington who’s likely to come in. I think it will mean more for Juju as Big Ben can’t throw any more, and a torn left pec won’t help him at all either. Their offensive line is a shambles, the offense as a whole has been dismal so far this season. So… cue 35 points against my team…

I genuinely don’t believe I’m being biased in my assumption of the Steelers here, the offensive line has been so poor they haven’t been able to move the ball, even with rookie Najee Harris coming in. He’s been unable to get going so far averaging 3.2 yards per run with 45 and 38 in his games so far, but he’s playing almost every snap and with the supposed Big Ben injury they may try to lessen the passing and lean on him more, he probably won’t throw 40 times this week at least.

In typically Bengals style they suffered a meltdown last week in a game they could have easily won against the Bears. A failed scoop and score after a sack led soon after to Joe Burrow throwing three consecutive interceptions, one of them a pick-6. He came back to throw 2 TDs in two completions after that, but the damage was done and it was left too late. He… hasn’t looked settled back there, unsurprising after how last year ended for him and the lack of contact in training camp, but I’m confident he’ll get there with it.

The offensive line… should we have taken Sewell? Maybe. But the pressures aren’t coming from the Tackles where Jonah Williams and Riley Reiff have been fine, they’ve been from guards and RB/TEs failing on their blocks, to say I’m happy they’re not facing TJ Watt is an under-statement. The pickup of Ja’Marr Chase is paying off already with a TD in each game. He’s been able to get open downfield and the TD last week reminded me of one AJ Green scored against the Steelers in the past. He did mention this week that he felt they should go deep earlier and it’s tough to argue that as it’s paid off well for them.

It does look like Tee Higgins will miss out with a shoulder injury though, so Tyler Boyd will likely get more targets, and Auden Tate will probably come in as a slow Tee. It may mean a little more for CJ Uzomah as well catching from the tight end position.

The Bengals have run the second most in neutral game-script, a sign probably that they’re trying to keep the opposition away from hitting Burrow. It does mean that Joe Mixon is third in rushing yards so far this year at 4 yards a carry, not hugely efficient, but it does tend to constantly leave them in third and 4+ which is problematic.

The defense though is greatly improved on last year, they are managing to get some pressure finally with Trey Hendrickson who had 1.5 sacks last week, DJ Reader is healthy and helping them stop the run and the linebackers look mature this year, especially Logan Wilson who has looked very good. They held Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery to 61 yards from 20 carries each.

I really think we SHOULD win this game, so no doubt it will be a horrible mess and we’ll get thumped. I do think the under is in play. It’s going to be a shitty, dirty game.

Indianapolis Colts +5.5 @ Tennessee Titans: 48

The Colts have lost both games so far, and it’s not been too pretty. Carson Wentz has been playing, but not well, he threw a horrible INT last week and it seems like he’s trying to do too much, he also somehow managed to sprain both ankles in their loss to the Rams last week. It looks like he’ll be playing but that might be worse than Jacob Eason/Brett Hundley at QB.

They should be a run-heavy team and Jonathan Taylor should be leading them, he has 32 carries for 107 yards this year though, at 3.3 a carry. He has the most redzone carries in the league (of teams who’ve played 2 games) but has yet to find the endzone. That’s not great, but could be a sign that it will come soon. Nyheim Hines has a good record against the Titans, his only double-digit carry games were against them last year and he had 45 and 66 through the air against them, an area he’s started well this year.

The passing game isn’t great, Michael Pittman needs to step up as the #1 8 for 123 last week, there’s not much behind him though, Zach Pascal is probably the 2, but Jack Doyle will probably top him on targets although I still think they should get Big Mo involved more…

The Titans pulled off a miracle comeback last week with Derrick Henry running all over the Seahawks in the 4th quarter. He’s been rather good vs. the AFC South, over 100 yards in each of the last 5 games in division, 103 yards, then 178 and 3 TDs vs. the Colts last season. They seemed to finally get the play-action going last week, not surprisingly off the back of Henry. He’s a beast.

Tannehill is very good off play-action and Julio had a Falcons-era game with 128 yards and no TD. They really need AJ Brown to get going though, he’s only had 7 receptions in their two games and that needs to get higher. It’s not deep behind them two, Firkser wasn’t targeted last week, it was Pruitt with the receptions there.

I think the Titans win and cover, injured Wentz or Eason/Hundley doesn’t do it for me. Lean under

Los Angeles Chargers +6.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs: 54.5

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/chargers-chiefs-free-nfl-picks-for-week-3/207399/

Game of the week? Definitely at 1800 at least.

Justin Herbert had over 300 in both games vs. the Chiefs last year, should put up a lot in a high-scoring game here, and has all the talent to be able to do it, you have to imagine it will be Keenan Allen and Mike Williams with double-digit targets again this week, they seem to have swapped roles with Allen becoming the deeper threat so far this year. Williams has scored in both though.

I like Ekeler this week, he’s had good games against the Chiefs, especially through the air, his receptions lines vs. the Chiefs are 6 and 4 last year, 9 and 8 in 2019, and 5 receptions in the one game he played against them in 2018. He caught all 9 of his targets last week against the Cowboys.

The Chiefs would have won last week had it not been for Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumbling for the first time in the league, but they couldn’t stop the Browns or Ravens running all over them, that shouldn’t be the case here with the Chargers more pass-heavy but it’s a worry on defense for them.

I said pre-season the top-heavy nature of this offense worries me but Mahomes can overcome it, well, Tyreek had 14 yards last week, but he found Pringle and Robinson for TDs, while Kelce remains unstoppable with 109 and a TD. 3 TDs already for him.

I didn’t think Clyde was good last year, but with the O-Line improvements I was expecting more this season, it might be time to assume he’s not a very good fit with the Chiefs, on the plus side for him Andy Reid will probably load him up with carries this week and get him back into it. He’s averaging 3.3 per carry this year. In fairness they’ve faced the Browns and Ravens who are two of their main competitors in the AFC and this could be the third toughest game on their schedule, it does get easier for them after this.

The Chiefs have now gone 10 regular season games without covering the spread (1-11-1 in the last 13 altogether), so I’ve got to lean to the Chargers here, and… probably the over, but I won’t be touching this line.

New Orleans Saints +3 @ New England Patriots: 42.5

Everything went wrong for the Saints last week, they were missing most of their coaches through covid, as well as a lot of key defensive players, but it was the offense which was dismal. 128 yards in total, 6 first downs in the whole game. Terrible from the Saints after spanking the Packers in week one.

Jameis throw 2 interceptions which has been highlighted and mocked, but neither mattered, one was end of the half, the other a hoof when the game was dead, I’m not killing him for that. The rest of the game, sure. It was shit.

Alvin Kamara. 5 yards from 8 rush attempts. Yeah… lets just throw out last weeks game and assume with players and coaches returning it will be all right this week. The passing game remains tough to call; Callaway was the hope coming into the season but he’s had 6 targets in two weeks. Honestly, I’ve no idea, but I do think Adam Trautman should be closer to the 6 targets from week one, than the 0 last week. No numbers for that, just blind hope/expectation.

The Patriots have done all right, should have won week 1, and 4 INTs helped them win easily last week against the Jets. Mac Jones has looked good at QB so far but he’s not been asked to do much so far, it’s been low depth, easy completion stuff which is fair enough given their WR group.

Damien Harris had 16 carries for 62 yards and his 26 yard TD run broke through 5 or 6 tackles to drag 3 players into the endzone to win our NAP last week. James White found the endzone as well, and led the team in receiving yards highlighting where the targets have been going in this offense thus far. Jacobi Meyers does look like he’s leading the targets for the WR group with 15 through two games.

The defense has been pretty good as you’d expect and should be able to cause issues for Winston.

No idea. I have to say the Patriots win and cover, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Saints won by a margin. The Pats have to rely on their defense, I don’t think they’ll be able to chase the game so have to keep it tight.

Washington Football Team +7.5 @ Buffalo Bills: 45.5

Great defenses are tough to continue season by season, is there a chance the Washington defense isn’t as good as expected? The didn’t get to Herbert in week one and gave up 29 points to the Giants. This will be another big test as the Bills should be able to put up points as well.

Taylor Heinicke remains at QB and hasn’t done too badly, although they probably don’t want him throwing 46 times again. He comes up against a Bills defense which shut out the Dolphins last week and restricted the Steelers to very little in week 1.

Antonio Gibson should get more of the ball this week, he had 5.8 per carry last week but only 13 carries. That seems like the kind of production I’d want getting more touches. The passing game from the backfield is tough to call though, Gibson in week 1, McKissic last week, maybe it’s McKissic with Heinicke at QB. I won’t be touching that line now.

Terry McLaurin is brilliant, puts up yards no matter who’s throwing the ball to him, 107 last week and a TD. He should be the main guy again this week. Behind him is tough, they shared the targets with Humphries and Dyami Brown level with Logan Thomas and McKissic.

The Bills smashed the Dolphins last week as they seem to every year, but I think you can still say Josh Allen hasn’t been great so far this year. He’ll still run the ball when needed and Stefon Diggs will get a lot of targets still.

Devin Singletary still leads in the backfield but two second half TDs from Zack Moss might get him more carries this week and going forward as he looked good in redzone.

Diggs will lead the WR group with Sanders and Beasley behind him. It’s a good group and Diggs is one of the best route-runners in the league.

Bills should win, I’ve got them in a teaser with the Panthers, they are one of a few tasty teaser legs tonight.

Miami Dolphins +3.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders: 44

The Dolphins lost Tua early on last week as they couldn’t protect him and he’s now out for at least 3 weeks with fractured ribs which means Jacoby Brissett comes in. The market has not reacted at al to that news, in fact it’s dropped the spread half a point knowing that it won’t be Tua under centre.

Brisket played most of last week where he finishd 26/40 for 169 yards and an interception. I can’t see them changing too much of their dink and dunk offense with him being installed as starter from the off, the O-Line isn’t good so they’re having to get rid of the ball too quickly.

Waddle has been the most “successful” guy for them so far though with anther 6 receptions last week, Davante Parker was more targeted with Brissett though, while Mike Gesicki had some receptions after a dud in week 1. I might go back to the well with him if he’s 2.5 again. Albert Wilson finally appeared after no receptions week 1 and a good pre-season.

Myles Gaskin leads the backfield, gets a lot of receptions from there, and set at 3.5 again this week. It’s tough to take much from the Dolphins. I knoiw it’s too early to take a victory lap, but I didn’t think they’d be very good this year, they were defense based and (as above) it’s tough to keep that area high year on year. No matter how “elite”.

The Raiders are a team I, and seemingly a lot of people, misjudge. I have no idea whether they’re any good or not, but they’re 2-0 after games against the Ravens and Steelers, I doubt many would have thought that. I could denigrate those wins by saying it was a beaten up Ravens and the Steelers are dogshit and lost a lot of players during that game, but it’s impressive from them.

Derek Carr looks good, well protected and seems to be finding the open man more often than not, he has the third best tight end in the league who Jon Gruden said is the best player he’s ever coached, it looks like Henry Ruggs might have arrived after a poor rookie year, he’s had 12 targets in the two games. Hunter Renfrow is moving the chains for them, and Bryan Edwards looks like he’s stepping up too after some hype on him last year, it’s an effective offense so far.

The run game has been rough with Josh Jacobs playing banged up then missing last week, Kenyan Drake and Payton Barber came in and didn’t do much last week, 32 from 13 for Barber and 9 from 7 carries for Drake. So it’s all on Carr basically. If Jacobs misses out again it might be worth a punt on Moreau again, although the price on him has been slashed after last weeks score.

The defense looks good too, Maxx Crosby has been great since drafted and the hit they put on Ben last week was most satisfying.

I don’t see how the Dolphins cover, but I am terrible at calling Raiders’ games, so fuck knows.

New York Jets +10.5 @ Denver Broncos: 42

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/jets-broncos-nfl-week-3-picks-predictions/207617/

Not much has changed from that preview. Teddy Bridgewater has a good record as a favourite but has rarely (I think never) been a double-digit favourite. His style doesn’t exactly suit smashing teams to bits.

I’ve been high on Javonte Williams since pre-season (he happens to be my most drafted player on sleeper leagues now) and he’s looked good in leading the league in broken tackles. It looks like he’s taking more of the carries now with Gordon getting more passing work.

Jeudy out so Tim Patrick and Noah Fant getting more work as a result, Patrick scored again last week at a decent price.

Zach Wilson didn’t have a good time last week with 4 INTs vs the Patriots and this defense isn’t much easier, add into that the altitude and it doesn’t get much easier for the rookie. Corey Davis was shut down by Belichick last week, he should do better this week and people still seem hyped by Michael Carter although he and Ty Johnson are sharing reps, Tevin Coleman is out, and @Earlyvaluenfl mentioned Carters’ rec. yards on his pod in the week, looks a good one.

Broncos should go 3-0 after the easiest start in the league, I can’t tip them to cover this spread though.

Seattle Seahawks -2 @ Minnesota Vikings: 55

Three games left of the evening and they should all be great. Neither team in this matchup has shown much on defense this year, so we should see a lot of points here.

The Seahawks have beaten two AFC South teams, despite getting smashed on time of possession in both games, they only had the ball for 22 mins (of a 66 minute game) last week and 24 mins against the Colts, Russ is good.

I worry that they are a shallow offense, but it works because Russell Wilson is extremely good. He and Tyler Lockett have been exceptional so far this year 100 and 178 in the 2 games for Lockett so far, efficient and effective as he constantly finds himself in room way down the field and Russ lobs it in there. Lockett and DK Metcalf are one of the better pairings in the league and frankly they’ve not really used DK so far. He is probably going to blow up for 150 and 3 at some point but not so far. Freddie Swaim caught 5 and a TD last week.

The run game has been adequate, Chris Carson had 2 scores from 13 carries last week. They just aren’t getting the ball to be able to establish the run and when they do get the ball they score.

The Vikings could be 2-0, instead they’ve lost both games, in OT to the Bengals and a missed 37 yard field goal cost them last week, but they return home here hoping for a change of luck.

Kirk Cousins is up there stats-wise with Wilson in TDs thrown and 0 picks so far this year, he’s a very Derek Carr-type QB who doesn’t get the credit he probably deserves. He’s not done much wrong so far this season. Tied 10th in QBR.

Justin Jefferson scored all of his TDs at home last season, a weird little quirk, he’s found the endzone already this year, has 11 receptions from 19 targets through two games. It looks like a similar pattern to last year though with Jeff getting the yards and Thielen scoring the TDs. Both are very reliable and playing at a high level for this team. KJ Osborn seems to be the WR3 in the team, a spot they really could do with cementing down, he’s leading the WR3 in yards this year. Whop Philyor is a fantastic name on their WR roster.

But the biggest news for the Vikings is Dalvin Cook. It’s been reported by Rapsheet that he will try and play but could be “severely limited” – That may well mean more Alexander Mattison who’s an adequate replacement but not at Cooks level, they promoted Ameer Abdullah to the full squad yesterday which seems a sign Cook might not go.

I liked the Vikings in this is they were fully healthy, but the Cook news and the fact that Wilson is 7-0 against them in his career puts me off, so I’d lean the Seahawks way, and over, should be a lot of points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 @ Los Angeles Rams: 55

A battle for #1 seed in the NFC? Probably too early to proclaim that, but these are the two I thought would make the Superbowl from that side of the league so it could end up being a very important match.

Tom Brady just keeps going, he’s been great so far, 9 TDs leads the league and he looks like he’s carried the Superbowl form into this season, the run game has stalled a little, but it doesn’t matter when you’ve got Tom Terrific back there.

They have had a little hit tonight with Antonio Brown missing out with Covid, but that means Scotty Miller will probably step up as the 3. Could be a big game for Chris Godwin as he and Mike Evans are both top 10 talents in their position. Evans has 99 and 2 TDs, Godwin 167 and 2. But the resurgence of Gronk has been the most notable thing in their games so far with 4 TDs so far from the aging tight end.

The run game has been shit, they keep trying with Ronald Jones but he doesn’t seem to be very good, Leonard Fournette looks the better of those two and has double the carries this season so far. Not much else to say about that area of the game to be honest.

The defense is beat up in the secondary and the run defense is still very good so teams are throwing on them a lot, that is good for the Rams.

The Rams have won both games so far but could have easily lost to Carson Wentz last week. Matthew Stafford has looked great (ranked 3rd in QBR). He’s actually only attempted 56 passes so far this seaosn which is very low, but is 8th in yards. They’re going deep.

He’s formed a good connection with Cooper Kupp who notched up a couple of scores last week to make it 3 on the season, while Robert Woods will be second in targets, he does seem to be playing the shorter routes and getting overlooked currently though. Van Jefferson had a huge catch in week 1 and is the WR3 here.

The running game goes through Darrell Henderson, he got a little banged up last week which led to Sony Michel finishing out the game, he hasn’t practised this week and is officially listed as questionable, that’s a worry as he fits well in the system, although Michel wasn’t too bad when he came in he’s not much of a pass-catcher.

Should be some good defense on show with the Bucs defensive line and Jalen Ramsey all over the shop on the Rams defensive side of the ball.

The Bucs opened as underdogs in this one and were quickly backed through 0 to become favourites. I think that’s right, they’re fairly evenly matched in my eyes, but I am a big Matty Stafford fan. I won’t be backing anything, but teasing the Rams up past 7 could be sensible.

Green Bay Packers +3 @ San Francisco 49ers: 50

The Packers bounced back from their implosion in week 1 to beat the Lions last week but they did trail at the half and are missing more OL pieces this week. The 49ers went to 2-0 despite more injuries, but it wasn’t a convincing win for them against Phillie either.

Aaron Rodgers threw 4 TDs in that win against the Lions, three of them to Aaron Jones including a tap pass which counts on his numbers. 22 from 27 attempts for 255 and 4 TDs, not bad numbers I guess… the lack of a TD for Davante Adams should change here as he has done well against the 49ers in his career, he had 121 yards last week but Jones vultured those scores.

It’s another fairly shallow attack as the Packers don’t give Rodgers weapons, apparently. Robert Tonyan got off the mark after 11 TDs last season, but other than those two there’s not much help from Rodgers mate Randall Cobb, MVS or Allen Lazard who’s disappeared.

Aaron Jones is a very good back, scored in total last week, I do feel AJ Dillon should get more snaps behind him, but that’s that. God I really am shit writing about this team.

Jimmy Garoppolo remains at QB for the 49ers and he plays the safe, sensible plays which allow them to move the ball down the field, relying on a shit-ton of YAC, but that’s how they run and it works well with Jimmy there. The clamour for Lance is that they’d be able to do so much more with him on the field, but while Garoppolo continues to notch up wins that probably won’t happen.

Deebo is fun to watch isn’t he. He’s 3rd in yards this year after two games and looks great with the ball in his hands, he’s firmly taken over from Brandon Aiyuk as the WR1 in this team. Aiyuk might not even be the 2 at the moment, it’s all a little muddied behind Deebo. I am a little shocked at the lack of use for George Kittle at the moment, under 100 yards on the season for him at the moment, you’d expect that to change soon. Trent Sherfield is getting snaps, Mo Sanu hasn’t done a whole lot as someone I thought would fit in well in this offense.

The run game has had injury upon injury, it looks like Trey Sermon should be back this week to help Elijah Mitchell carry some of the load, he was banged up last week but finished out the game, Hasty looked good but has gone to IR for a few weeks. But whomever is back there tends to do well as the Shanahan scheme is great for running backs.

The 49ers front against a poor offensive line wins the game their way, while Aaron Rodgers and Adams could win it for the Packers. I can’t call it, I don’t think either team is on top of their game at the moment, so it’s whoever turns up on the night. Lean to the Packers unfortunately. Should be points though.


Betting round-up

Spreads

I’m struggling on them this week, so not going to force it. I like the Raiders most of the lines, but I find it tough to judge them. Nothing on spreads. Or totals actually. Obviously I’ve done leans for every game so have a nose at them if you want opinion on them.

There are some teaser legs though – Bills, Browns, Ravens, Cardinals all look good to tease down by 6 points. For the site I’ll go – Cardinals and Ravens both teased down to -1.5 @ 5/6 – 4 point stake on Redzone or 365.

As @Beattheline_ preach, you’re best getting on spreads early in the week before they evolve, with that in mind, I like the Cowboys -4 hosting the Panthers next week, I don’t think CmcC goes and it will be the Panthers are probably the highest they’ll be rated this season after 3 easy wins.

TD scorers

  • Justin Jefferson – 6/5 (Skybet)
  • Latavius Murray – 9/5 (WillHill)
  • Auden Tate – 7/1 (Will Hill) – 1 point stake (I think Tee misses which brings him in, but he doesn’t score much despite being massive)
  • Zack Moss – 16/5 (Will Hill) – Scored twice last week, got redzone carries. It was between him and Allen, but the price has gone on Allen now.
  • Albert Wilson – 21/2 (Unibet) 1 point stake – Had a good preseason, targeted by Brissett last week, has a lot of pace.

Not one I’ll put on record as I don’t know who has a Mansion bet, 10bet or Sportnation account, but Mattison is 7/4 with them and as low as 4/7 elsewhere.

Player Props

I’ve noticed I tend to target RB rec. lines a lot.

  • Melvin Gordon o12.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (365, 5/6 elsewhere)
  • Mike Gesicki o2.5 receptions – 29/20 (365)
  • Austin Ekeler o4.5 receptions – 5/8 (365) – I personally took o5.5 earlier in the week at plus odds, so have to like 4.5 here

I liked Justin Jefferson over yards, but it’s crept up past 80 now, so I won’t put that up here, and Najee Harris UNDER rushing yards, but as pointed out he’s had 95%+ snaps so far, and with Ben “injured” (of course he is) they might hand the ball off more. Although the Bengals run D is good so I’d still lean that way and not over.

Good Luck if you follow along. And apologies in advance for the Steelers abuse which will appear on twitter later on tonight while I’m drinking and watching that game.


As always we’ve got our Draftkings slates running – If you’ve not got an account sign up through my banner below for a free $10 when you deposit $10 on signing up.

Join my league HERE and this weeks contest is here – usual contest is filled, so it’s this one Weekly $5 contest – I was utterly terrible last week.

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