Well, after a great start to the season last Sunday it’s been fairly poor for me since then. I wanted to go for a few highers priced guys and there’s a couple I’ll be keeping an eye on for next week.
Damiere Byrd got a lot of targets, and seems established as the WR3 in Arizona. Auden Tate got a few receptions. Annoyingly John Brown, the NAP for yesterday was missed by Josh Allen on what would have been a big TD for them. That one TD would have swung us into a decent profit on the night rather than a nearly 8 point loss that we ended up with. Not the best of weekends.
HOWEVER… If you listen to the Full10yards betting podcast that we usually get out on Saturday evenings… You may have got on the 2 request a bets that I mentioned on there at 13/2 and 80/1.
On a personal note I finished 3rd in the DKUK London ticket giveaway for the second week running, agonisingly close to hospitality tickets for one of the games at the Spurs stadium.
Anyway, enough of that, apologies have been made on twitter for the performance of the tips, on to Monday night football.
Cleveland Browns -6 @ NY Jets: 45.5
The hype team of the off-season the Browns were expected by a lot of people to walk to the AFC North title, stroll through the play-offs and wind up in Miami in February to play for their first Superbowl title, but football doesn’t work like that as they hilariously lost to the Titans in week 1. The offensive line was suspected by most to be the weakest spot of this roster and it proved so; It didn’t start very well, and got even worse after Greg Robinson their left tackle got ejected from the game meaning their RT moved to the left, therefore weakening too spots and after that Cameron Wake got to Baker Mayfield with regularity and screwed up the Browns game-plan. It was wonderful.
In fairness to the Browns they had a few very good drives, Baker and Beckham connecting well, but it was a game full of mistakes from Mayfield starting his second year as he finished with 285 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs as they chased the game late on and he threw a few up for picks. The passing attack should be better today against a Jets team who are weak at CB, Trumaine Johnson is their main guy back there and he has not been very good. Jamal Adams and Marcus Mayes are a very good safety duo though.
Odell Beckham Jnr will be hoping to get his first score for the Brownies, as above, he had a few big plays with Baker and finished with 7 for 71. Not an awful stat-line, and he’s one of the most naturally talented guys in the league. His bestest buddy ever Jarvis Landry had the second most yards for them, but with OBJ there he’s back to being the 2nd choice in the passing game and Mayfield is so “dangerous” that he does like to go for the wonder-ball. Rashard Higgins was looking pretty good last week as well before he had to leave the game with a knee issue, he’s listed as questionable tonight and Damion Ratley came on in his place for the second half. Apparently they have someone called D’Ernest Johnson who made a couple of catches? I have no idea. It always seems to me that David Njoku should do more when he’s on the field, he’s a physical freak and looks good, but he’s a tough one to catch on the right day.
I did love the Browns trolling all fantasy players and bettors last week by giving Dontrell Hilliard the first TD of the game with a short run that you’d expect Nick Chubb to be in on, it was Hilliards only rush of the game, and he misses out with concussion this week. So surely this week will be Chubbs time? He was great last season and started the season fairly well last week. He’s in a good spot in this one as CJ Mosley is out for the Jets, their game with the Bills changed last week when he went out, so it’s great news for Chubb.
It couldn’t have been much of a worse week for the Jets. They threw away a big lead at home last week after getting the benefit of 4 takeaways against the Bills. CJ Mosley went out of that game and is ruled out for tonight. Leveon Bell had a precautionary MRI in the week but it seems fine, although he’s still officially listed as questionable he’ll go tonight and be fine, they lost Quincy Enunwa for the season to a neck injury and to top things off their franchise QB is now out with fucking Mono. The kissing disease. Not good at all for them.
So this week they’ll be starting Trevor. Siemian. at QB. Not good at all for them. In 2017 he had 10 starts for the Broncos and finished with 12 TDs and 14 interceptions. I would imagine there will be a lot of short work for Crowder, Bell and the tight end Griffin in this offense, but obviously with nothing much on tape it’s all a bit unknown.
The passing game was intended to run through Jamison Crowder last week who received a TON of targets, 17 targets, 14 receptions… for 99 yards. As above, I have to think they’ll keep it simple for Siemian so it could mean a lot more short, quick passes tonight. Robby Anderson is the fun guy to watch in their offense, he was missed downfield a couple of times last week by Darnold and finished with only 3 receptions on the week. In fact, thinking about this team again we could see some more Ty Montgomery on the park, he did used to be a WR so it would make sense for them to get him more involved. Once the Enunwa news was clear to the Jets they moved for Demaryius Thomas from the Patriots, he looked all right in pre-season and has worked with Gase before so there’s possibly a little bit of promise there for him. Their right end Ryan Griffin only had 10 yards from 3 receptions last week but ran a lot of routes for them.
Leveon Bell played his first game for a few years last week and looked all right doing it from the bits I saw on redzone. 92 combined yards from 23 touches and a receiving TD. As above, it would make sense with a backup QB in there that they protect Siemian by getting the ball out quickly.
That’s about it on this one, it’s not a game that fills me with excitement in all honesty.
The Browns surely have to win, they were 2.5 point favourites before the Darnold news, now -6. They should be able to cover that even on the road.
- Lev Bell o4.5 receptions – 2.00 (365)
- Jamison Crowder longest reception u23.5 – 1.83 (365)
The Crowder one seems very strange given his usage last week, they’ve got Robby Anderson at 22.5 despite the fact he’s the downfield threat. Weird.
Had a quick look at the RaBs on Sky, Bell and Chubb 2 TDs each at 25/1? Chubb 1st, Robby Anderson last at 50s. Why not.
Hopefully we’ll have a better night than last night.
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