Well, I’m glad I didn’t think about backing the Rams to go unbeaten for the season, it turns out that 2 years of sending staffers to Australia to judge sleep and recovery didn’t work out well for the Rams. Maybe keeping it as a “standard game” will help them in the coming weeks, but they’re now behind the 49ers in division and playing catch-up.
The 49ers looked very good, they protected Purdy well and produced an end-zone stop (I’m fairly sure Stafford actually got in) and a couple of turnovers to take the game away from the Rams. The usage of CMC in the first half was interesting as rookie Kaelon Black got a lot of the rushing attempts while CMC was used a lot on passing downs and downs where it really mattered. Mike Evans was the go-to on 3rd downs early on and got himself a TD as did Deebo, and of course, Demarcus Robinson revenge game, how did I not see it?!
So, three of the NFC West have played and we’re on to the Sunday slate.
Before I get into the previews, one final push for the Picks contest – £100 for the year, works out under 6 quid a week with a chance to win over a grand at the end of the season. Pick 5 games each week with a banker pick worth double and winner takes all come January. – More details on TouchdownTips “SuperContest” 2026/27. You’ll be ahead of me already as I took the Seahawks -3.5 and the Darnold injury probably did me on that one immediately.
This year, Channel 5 have retained the rights to show 2 games per week, but they’ve swapped around the way they’re doing it. The early game will be on 5action – Channel 150 on SkyQ, 165 on SkyGlass and SkyStream; Channel 26 on Freely (that’s what I’ve got); Channel 33 on Freeview. With the later game on Channel 5 – I don’t think I need to explain what channel that is on your various platforms.
Bills -1.5 @ Texans: 44.5 (Sky)
What a cracker to start the season on Sky as two of the expected AFC playoff teams take the field in Texas. Josh Allen is 0-4 in Texas and 1-4 against them in total, including a playoff loss. Can he get his first win there?
The Bills look similar to last season but brought in DJ Moore from the Bears over the summer to bolster their receiving corps alongside Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. Coleman needs to step up after a couple of rough seasons where he’s show some flashes. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are a good duo at TE and they have more depth there who will pop up with scores.
I’m going to assume they’ll be run-heavy again, and after a 14TD season from James Cook that shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, there’s no reason why he and Allen shouldn’t win most games with their ability on the ground.
All-in-all it’s pretty much the same as last season, even the defense hasn’t seen much of a change. They will make the playoffs, can they make it past anyone in there?
Sorry Bills fans, not really a whole lot to write about here, it feels like rinse and repeat.
The Texans relied on their outstanding defense to make the playoffs last year but with Nico Collins getting injured limped out of the playoffs as the offense was unable to maintain anything. They have looked at their very leaky OL and looked to improve that area with a host of signings over the summer, an essential to get anything done on offense.
It looks like they will be relying a lot on Nico Collins again in the passing game this year as 2nd-year Jayden Higgins is out for the season through injury, he was expected to take a big step forward. They are without Tank Dell for the start of the season at least as he looks to get up to speed after his horrible knee injury, so they picked up Boutte from the Pats. Great.
The run game looks like it will be David Montgomery on early downs after he came in from the Lions, with Woody Marks in for pass-catching work, Monty was a great pickup and will be good with the heavier workload.
It all depends on the health and talent on that OL, if it can protect CJ Stroud at all then with the defense they’ve got they should win the AFC South and make a push into the post-season.
I’m a bit shocked to see the Bills as favourites in this one, so I’ll take the Texans ATS and lean over on the total. Long shot of Foster Moreau anytime at 18/1 (WillHill)
Ravens -3.5 @ Colts: 47.5 (5Action)
Two more teams who are in with good shots for the post-season as the Ravens set off on their first campaign in nearly 2 decades without John Harbaugh at the helm. The Colts looked good for the playoffs last year before Daniel Jones went down, so with him back under center why won’t things be similar this season?
The Ravens brought in a defensive head-coach and he wasted no time addressing things there with Trey Hendrickson coming in from the Bengals after missing last season through injury to bolster their pass-rush. They have a new OC as well who may bring some changes to Lamar Jackson, but we’ll see.
So it’s a new look for the Ravens who have repeatedly failed in the post-season. I can’t imagine we see too much change from “give the ball to Derrick Henry” – He topped 1500 yards and had 16 rushing TDs last year, both good for 2nd in the league and was the 3rd most efficient with the ball at 5.2 yards per carry. He doesn’t age so why not just give him the ball 300 times again? They can run the passing game off of the back of his threat and after signing Zay Flowers to a huge deal will be using him as the 1 with rookie Ja’kobi Lane and Rashod Bateman behind him.
They have brought in Durham Smythe to replace Isiah Likely who signed a big deal for the Giants, Smythe will work behind Mark Andrews who looked to me to be showing his age last year at TE.
The Colts had two seasons in one last year, going 8-2 before their bye week and then losing Dan Jones after two losses post-bye before finishing the season with 7 defeats in a row. The first half of the season when fully healthy had Jonathan Taylor looking like the best back in the league and I am backing him to be at that type of level this year as well. It worked so well with him and Jones under center.
They’ve changed up in the passing game with Michael Pittman heading to the Steelers. They paid Alec Pierce a huge amount of money after his one good season so it will be interesting to see how the Bearcats allum will do as very much the WR1 in this team. Josh Downs is always reliable as the intermediate guy and Ashton Dulin could be used more as the deep shot. They brought in Keenan Allen off the street and he got drunk and drugged up, but that’s fine for NFL players and he’ll be available for now at last.
Much like their opponents, I’ve got to think they’ll be largely run-first and work the rest off the back of that. Again, why would you not when you’ve got one of the top 5 running backs in the league.
An interesting one to open the season. I think I’ve got to lean to the Colts winning at home, but I doubt I’ll have any money on that prospect. A high total but still leaning to the overs. 11/4 for Alec Pierce (BetMGM) seems high, I guess the health worries are bumping it up a bit.
Falcons +5.5 @ Steelers: 41.5
What a summer at QB for the Falcons, with Michael Penix expected to miss the start of the season, they brought in Tua Tagovailoa for essentially free, named him the starter and then he injured himself and they’re opening the season with Cooper Rush. Rush is a decade younger than his counterpart here with Aaron Rodgers on the the other side saying it’s definitely his final season, as he turns 43 in December this year.
Again, one of the best running backs in the league and the hype on Bijan Robinson has reached new heights this year with some thinking he’ll set new total yardage records. If he plays the full season he won’t be too close and with sub-par QB play for the whole year regardless of who is there he might well have more receiving yards than most receivers in the league. He did nearly hit 2,400 yards last season, just 100 away from CJ2K who had 2509 in 2009. The Falcons went double-BR at RB with Brian Robinson replacing Tyler Allgeier as the RB2.
Drake London will get 50% of the non-RB targets in the passing game and will be looking for another 1000 yards, he’ll likely have Kyle Pitts behind him as they signed him to a 18m a year deal over the summer. They brought back Olamide Zaccheus who I think might actually have a fairly decent year back in Atlanta and Jahan Dotson came in from the Eagles.
New head coach Kevin Stefanski joined from the Browns, so they’ve got a coach who knows the Steelers at least.
The Steelers had 19 years with Mike Tomlin at the helm but finally moved on from him this summer, I think they’ve got their first season in 20 years with a losing record on the way but they had to do something to try and snap the perpetual mediocrity there. Let Rodgers finish his career and move on with Drew Allar or Will Howard at QB, both seemed to have potential in pre-season. Let’s be fair, Mike McCarthy at head coach is a nice story as a he’s a Steelers fan, but it’s pretty un-inspiring for neutrals around the league. Which is great for me as a Bengals fan.
I can’t comment on Rodgers as I know how incredibly biased against him I am. 23rd in QBR last year, 15th in yards, 13th in TDs. He should have called it a day but I am glad he’s back as he won’t be able to take this team anywhere.
They have brought in help at WR though with Michael Pittman joining to help out DK Metcalf who had an average year. He’s a good signing for them and definitely improves the group from last season. As we know every draft season they are the only team who has ever drafted a good WR so I’m sure they’ll have hopes that Germie Bernard turns out good as they don’t have much depth there on paper. He didn’t do a whole lot in the summer but did finish with a TD so we’ll see how it goes there.
The TE position is where Rodgers looked a lot last year and they signed up 10 ton Darnell who is very tough to stop when they get the ball in his hands, along with Pat Friermuth and now Robert Tonyan it’s an area strength for them.
Rico Dowdle joined from the Panthers to replace Najee Harris as the alternate to Jaylen Warren at RB. Both can have good games but can’t be trusted for betting purposes on a weekly basis.
You can’t ask for much more as a Steelers fan than the Falcons brining a 3rd choice QB from a stable of poor QBs to start the season. No way in hell I’m taking the Steelers to win by a big margin, but they should get it done in a shitty game for no-fans. Low total, still leaning under. Have to take 20/23 for Bijan although they may well be a dumpster fire, that’s why Drake London is 3/1 I guess.
Browns +8.5 @ Jags: 39.5
More new head-coaching here with the Browns losing Stefanski and replacing him with offensive-minded Todd Monken who joins after leaving the Ravens. It feels like the Browns are aware of the sunk-cost fallacy as they’ve decided that Deshaun Watson will be starting the season as their QB. The Jags had a good first season under new coaching and will look to take another step forward this season.
The Browns starting Watson shouldn’t be too much of a shock but it has the potential to be terrible for them as he’s not looked good in the small amounts of play we’ve seen. I don’t think Sheduer Sanders is going to be a star in the league either but I felt he showed enough in proper games last year to be their starter. He probably will be within the month.
Quinshon Judkins looked great when he was healthy last year and seems to overcome the injury that curtailed his season, they would be sensible to give him the ball 25+ times a game and even when losing probably will. Dylan Sampson had some fair games behind him as the pass-catching back
They’ve looked to improve the WR corps with KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston coming in the a highly-touted draft class. Along with Jerry Jeudy coming back it will be interesting to see how it all pans out in that area with TE Harold Fannin putting up big yards in his rookie year. I have no idea how it works with this dumpster fire of a team.
The Jags moved on from Travis Etienne over the summer so go here with Bayshul Tuten as RB1 with new-siging Chris Rodriguez (C-rod) behind him after coming in from the Commanders. It seems like Tuten will get the majority of the carries but I think it might be a closer split than most are suggesting.
Trevor Lawrence had the best year of his career and managed to largely avoid the bone-headed mistakes he has been prone to in previous years, he finished 6th in yards and 5th in TDs and will be looking forward to a good second year in this QB-friendly scheme.
The emergence of Parker Washington and regression of Brian Thomas was notable for them last season and BTJ will be looking to return to his rookie season after a good off-season. Washington came on as the year progressed and I think he’ll carry on his form here. It looks like Travis Hunter will revert to mainly a defensive player but I’m sure will get some offensive snaps and Jakobi Meyers got a contract extension last summer as the WR3. Brenton Strange deserves a mention at TE, usually a decent one to target at his price.
The Jags should win this one comfortably and I could see them doing it by 20 if Watson is as terrible as I think he will be, but I won’t be risking them at this spread. Judkins o56.5 rush yards. All the Jags WRs are around 2/1 and probably worth a look
Bucs +3.5 @ Bengals: 50.5
The Bucs waited all summer but got Baker signed up to a big deal just before the season kicks off. The Bengals used their 1 pick this year to trade for Dexter Lawrence who has been killing it over the summer.
Not a whole lot of change for the Bucs since last season, Rachaad White the only noticeable change on the offense, but they brought in his double in Kenneth Gainwell who joined from the Steelers. Got to assume the running game will be similar to last year then with Bucky Irving leading it, but interchangable with Gainers, and we may well see Sean Tucker getting a few snaps as well in short-yardage positions, although he is likely missing this game.
They have been waiting on the health of Emeka Egbuka for the summer but he’s listed as a go in this one, so will be up there with Chris Godwin in leading the team in targets. I personally think Godwin will be the WR1, but there shouldn’t be much between the two of them.
The Bengals need a reasonable defense and they should be pushing for the divisional and conference title this year and they way sexy Dexy has been looking in camp they might be up there. The addition of him, Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe has revamped the defensive line and Bryan Cook is a highly thought of safety who came in from the Chiefs.
The offense will be the same as last year with maybe the exception of Andrei Iosivas who has some competition now at the WR3 spot. He finished the year with a lot of costly drops so he should be on a short leash. Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins provide arguably the best 1-2 in the league (yes, Cowboys, I know) and if Burrow is kept healthy behind an offensive line which actually performed well last season, then they should be right up there.
It’s Chase Brown with Samaje Perine backing him up at RB, but I’m interested in the return of Erick All at TE, they like him and after returning from a season-long injury, and a car crash over the summer he offers something alongside Mike Gesicki.
Obviously I’m going for the Bengals to win this one. They have had a full, healthy summer so should be good to go for once despite being known for their slow starts in recent years. It’s the highest total of the weekend, so I’m going under that. Above evens for Tee Higgins is good with me, he scored in all bar two home games last year. Erick All is 13/2 and a tempter but I think I’ll see how he goes this week.
Jets +1.5 @ Titans: 38.5
Hide this one on the back of the coverage…Titans head coach Robert Salah faces his former team. Geno Smith returns to the team who drafted him for the Jets.
I don’t think Geno Smith is very good, but he’s the best QB the Jets have had in recent years and should be good for Garrett Wilson who has done well with whichever useless bum has been throwing the ball near him. They brought in Omar Cooper at WR and Kenyon Sadiq at TE in the draft to add some potential weapons to their passing game and Adonai Mitchell showed a little bit after moving from the Cols during the season last year.
Breece Hall has shown his value and doesn’t have a whole lot of competition in the running game, he should get a boost in short passes with Geno at QB as well.
The Titans have made some moves to strengthen a poor roster as well, trying to give Cam Ward some weapons with the useful Wan’dale Robinson coming down from the Giants. He’s a PPR king and reliable, so if Ward can learn to not go for hero ball every time he throws it should be a boost for them. They also brought in Carnell Tate at pick 4 as the first WR in the draft, so they should have a proper WR1 as well. Daniel Bellinger adds to a weak TE group.
Believe it or not Tony Pollard has 4 four 1,000 yard rushing seasons in a row and is capable through the air as well. He doesn’t seem to have the frame to keep up with the workload but he’s been able to so far. He and Tyjae Spears are actually a fair duo, Spears o2.5 or 3.5 was one of my common bets from last year and may well be this one as well.
A mention for Jeffrey Simmons who would arguably be so much more respected if on a big team. Guy is a beast.
Titans under a field goal at home is a go for me. Nothing on the total. Some interesting big priced plays here, Dike, Ayomanor for the Titans and Sadiq and Omar Cooper for the Jets, all 9/1 or above. I guess I’d go for Cooper at 12/1 (Sky/PP) Spears o2.5 receptions – 4/5
Bears -3 @ Panthers: 46.5
Given the relative hype between these teams it’s a little surprising that they’re so close in the betting. These teams are linked as the Panthers took Bryce Young with the first rounder they received from the Bears.
The Bears shipped off DJ Moore over the summer safe in the knowledge that he was on the down-slope of his career and that Rome Odunze and Luther Burden were better options for them in their passing game and the hype has been high all summer on the two of them, especially Burden who seems to be considered the WR1 there now after finishing the season strong last year. Kaliff Raymond comes in from the Lions and adds some burner speed to an already quick trio. There’s a lot of hype over Colston Loveland at TE as well and belief that he can be the new Travis Kelce, so they should be fine here.
Caleb Williams took a step forward last year and I’ve seen people saying he’s a top 5 QB. I’m not there yet but he did have a lot of 4th quarter comebacks for wins last year so he can keep it together when things are going wrong. I still feel he makes too many stupid throws, but he is a typical modern QB, strong arm and good on the ground too.
D’Andre Swift is good to go in this one and signed a new deal on the eve of the season, he’s the 1 on the ground with injured Kyle Monangai behind him when he’s back to fitness. Without Monangai you’re looking at Roschon Johnson as the RB2.
The Panthers haven’t got quite the blessings that the Bears have, Bryce Young is a similar QB in my eyes, although of a smaller frame and with worse coaching. I think he looked better last year after a rough one the year before and I’m more intrigued on him to see whether he can take a step forward.
Tetairoa McMillan looked worthy of his high draft spot last season and there’s no reason why that won’t continue into his second year and the Cokeheads got to see their guy on the field towards the end of the year as Jalen Coker finally got healthy, there’s been a lot of love for him in fantasy circles this summer, not so much chat on Xavier Legette who has the body to be the main guy but isn’t reliable enough. At TE they’ve got Tommy Tremble listed as the TE1 and while he’s generally a blocker they do use him in the passing game as well. Darren Waller comes off the street as possibly the main pass-catcher, but Mitch Evans and Jat Sanders could both mix in when they hit the red-zone. Options there.
Chuba Hubbard looked like he’d have some contest at RB1 with Jonathan Brooks healthy for most of the summer but with a sprain and being listed as questionable for week 1 they would be sensible to not give Brooks too much action in this opener and AJ Dillon is there as well, looks like he should be the goal-line back but we know from his time at Green Bay that he’s actually pretty bad at that spot.
I think the Bears will win, but I think it will be close so I’d take the Panthers if I was forced to pick a side.
Saints +7 @ Lions: 49.5
The Saints seem in perpetual rebuild at the moment, but are still trying to win. The Lions are thinking they should be looking towards the Super Bowl.
The big move for the Saints this summer was Travis Etienne coming in from the Jags, he will be the eventual replacement for Alvin Kamara who stays on the team but misses this game at least through injury meaning they’ll get a solid look at how the future will be without their talisman. Kendre Miller will be behind him although he’s coming back from a serious injury as well.
Chris Olave had a great season when on the field and was used a lot by Tyler Shough, the worry here though is the number of concussions he had. We’ve seen what’s happened to Tua and I would be fearful that the next one could end his career, but these guys tend to carry on regardless. They took a WR high in the draft but he’s famously injury prone and is already on IR so will miss the start of the season. This leaves them with newly-signed Deshaun Vele from the Broncos and rookies at WR behind Olave, so expect a heavy dose of Juwan Johnson – He’ll be my guy for receptions in this one. Noah Fant has been brought in as well, another pass-catching TE who could see some action.
The Lions didn’t make a whole lot of changes from previous years but will be looking to take that extra step. They did free up nearly 40m in cap space yesterday by restructuring some contracts so could be looking to bring in some more depth in the coming days. Aiden Hutchinson being back on the field for them will be huge, he looked like he’d be setting records at pass rush before going down last season.
Jared Goff is fine, he’s got a solid OL in front of him and good coaching and will again put up some good numbers. Jahymr Gibbs was the top pick in most of the drafts I did this summer and is a dismal 4/11 to find the endzone in this opening game. He finished with 18 TDs last year and is as good through the air as he is on the ground, without Monty on the team any more his workload will likely be higher than last year and he can step up to that load. Pacheco was brought in to be the RB2 but he’s on IR.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is another who might be close to some records this year, 5th in receptions and yards last season but 2nd in TDs. He’s good. Jameson Williams isn’t always the most consistent but is a very good WR2. Behind them it’s not too deep Isaac Teslaa had a few TDs early on last year then went away a bit but he’ll probably be on the field more with Raymond gone. Sam LaPorta had an efficient season last year but the workload wasn’t too high and I’d expect him to have more receptions this coming year.
Lions win, I don’t want to take the 7 though. It feels like they’ll win a tight one or blow away the Saints. Above evens for Amon-Ra St. Brown (23/20 at CoraLadbrokes) seems ridiculous. Etienne o14.5 rec yards with Kamara out looks good too.
Cardinals +9.5 @ Chargers: 47.5
Another year of nothingness for the Cardinals who will be looking at one of the many QBs in the draft next year. Will the Chargers finally make a deep playoff run?
Jacoby Brissett knew his job and held the Cardinals ransom for a better deal which he got over the summer. We did see the offense function better with him under center than the departed Kyler Murray last year so it might be all right for them. Michael Wilson was the main beneficiary of Brissett playing last year and he earned himself a new deal as well after a host of 7+ reception games put him ahead of Marv Harrison. Marv will be looking to play up to his name and the high pick they spent on him a few years back, and Trey McBride scored a lot more with Jacoby on the field as well so maybe the passing game won’t be too bad.
They drafted Jeremiyah Love high in April and after a disrupted summer they have said he’ll be fine to play this weekend. It worries me that he’s carrying a niggle already but we’ll see if he can have a big impact on a terrible looking team. He had 1500 yards and 21 TDs in his final college year and looks like he could be the real deal. Tyler Allgeier came in to be the RB2, a role he’s been used to in Atlanta and does well when he gets the chance.
The Chargers haven’t changed a whole lot but would have been hoping that their OL at least made it through the summer without major injuries, it didn’t. They’re already hurt there and that’s the area that killed their season last year. Not Herbert, it’s never his fault. Herb ran the ball a lot last year and with his range of throws should always be up there in passing yards.
Omarion Hampton is expected to get the bulk of the work at running back with Kimani Vidal and speedy Keaton Mitchell behind him. Hampton had about 750 yards and 5 TDs in 8 and a bit regular season games last year before his injury and will be hoping for a full season to show his worth. Vidal was adequate in replacement of him, but in a team that wants to be run-first he wasn’t quite good enough.
Quintin Johnston is the TD threat for the team on mid-long range passes and will be looking to step forward from last season, where he flashed but wasn’t consistent. They will be looking for Ladd McConkey to bounce back after a relatively poor season where he was way below what was expected of him 6 TDs, under 1000 yards and just 2 games above 100. They brought in David Njoku to push Orende Gadsden as the pass-catching TE, but both are listed behind Charlie Kolar on the depth chart which shows the direction this team really wants to go. I think Njoku leads them in yardage this season.
Obviously the Chargers should win this one, but by 10 points? This is the Chargers we’re talking about. 11/5 on Trey McBride? Yes please (365) Michael Wilson o3.5 receptions – I feel he’s a very good one to ladder today.
Dolphins +3 @ Raiders: 40.5
The easiest game either of these teams have on their schedule as they face each other in week 1. Brock Bowers would have been on for a huge game but he misses out through injury.
Not much to talk about for the Dolphins, they’re paying half their cap space to players not on the roster so they start Malik Willis at QB, he will run a lot, so he and De’von Achane should put up good numbers but I’m not sure about anyone else on the roster for a team fully resetting themselves. Jaylen Wright probably gets some carries behind Achane.
Malik Washington is officially the WR1 on the team with rookies behind him in the form of Caleb Douglas, Kevin Coleman and Chris Bell who it didn’t seem would be active for the start of the season after injury in college but is potentially the best of the young group if he can stay on the field. Greg Dulcich could have a career year at TE.
The Raiders took Fernando Mendoza in the draft but their future QB will be behind Kirk Cousins to start the season at least. Ashton Jeanty was a worry through injury but will be playing but it looks like there might be more of a split than many though with Mike Washington looking very good in pre-season and earning himself some playing time as the RB2. He’s very short to score which is annoying as he was one I was looking at.
With Bowers missing at TE it will be Michael Mayer getting the bulk of the work in that position and after one day as TE1 he got himself a nice fat contract. Tre Tucker worked well with Geno Smith last year and is officially the WR1 on the depth chart which is never a good spot to be in as a team, he’s got Jalen Nailor who came in on 11m a year from the Vikings and second-year Jack Bech to round out the supposed starters at WR.
Probably far too much written about these teams, but I look at all the games. Mayer is still 5/1 anytime at 10bet, and Mike Washington is now 4/1 at Sky/Paddypower so I will definitely be taking him as well. Nothing on the win here though. Willis rush yards the other possible look.
Packers +1.5 @ Vikings: 46.5 (Channel 5)
A big game early in the NFC North with both teams looking to get a big win in the toughest division in football. Josh Jacobs is done for part of the year for the Packers and Kyler Murray coming in at QB is the big move for the Vikings.
With Jacobs missing out the Packers will have Marshawn Lloyd as their starting RB and he’s had a good camp, but I don’t think it will be great for extended periods, we’ll see. They brought in Kaleb Johnson from the Steelers who barely saw the field in his rookie year and Chris Brooks didn’t look like much in his first year.
So, it all good for the pass-catchers to have big seasons as I think they’ll be throwing more than before. Jordan Love is a fine QB and Christian Watson looks like he’ll be the lead in the position, but they’ve got a solid trio with him, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden who many think will take a Lambeau leap forward in his second year. They signed up Tucker Kraft to a new deal yesterday as their main TE and if he’s healthy for the season he could be the top guy behind McBride and Bowers.
They weren’t good without Micah Parsons on defense last year and he’ll be missing for the time being so this could be quite a high-scoring affair.
The Vikings saw what they needed of rookie JJ McCarthy last year and he’s now down at QB3 to start the year with Carson Wentz backing up Kyler Murray in this opener. I don’t think Kyler is very good and I’m not sure he’ll raise this team too much but he has to be better than JJ Mac was last season so it’s going to be a boost for the passing game, and his mobility, if used well, will be useful for them as well.
Jordan Mason is the RB1 and will get the bulk of the work, especially in the redzone with old man Aaron Jones behind him, I’m sure Jones will have the odd big game but he looked tired last season. Justin Jefferson should have a better season with adequate QB play and while Kyler didn’t really get the best out of the talent in Arizona JJ is arguably the best WR in the league and put up numbers whoever was under center last year. Jordan Addison is a good WR2 and I think he’ll gain the most here, and they brought in Jauan Jennings from the 49ers to add another J to the group.
TJ Hockenson is a good TE who has had a full summer of health and should add something to the mix.
No idea who’s winning this one, but I think my lack of respect for Kyler means I’d take the points with the Packers. Mason and Lloyd are both at 43.5 rushing yards, I’d probably go over on Mason.
Commanders +6 @ Eagles: 44.5
Another divisional contest as the Commanders take on the Eagles. The Eagles have flown under the radar this summer with AJB heading to New England the big news of their off-season.
The Commanders have Jayden Daniels back fully healthy and I’m hoping he stays that way as he’s a fun one to watch with a big arm and a great rusher. He’ll be helpful for sophomore Jacory Crosskey-Merritt who had a fair rookie season but didn’t really live up to the hype he got over the summer. He’s lost a lot of the competition on the ground but they did bring in Rachaad White as a like-for-like replacement for Austin Ekeler as their third-down back. Kaytron Allen is an interesting rookie at the position.
They were linked with Brandon Aiyuk before he went off the deep end in a serious fashion so they ended up with Stefon Diggs to play alongside Terry McLaurin, an experienced and potentially pretty good duo of receivers. McLaurin has a good connection with JD and should have a big year if he can stay fit. Rookie Antonio Williams rounds out the WRs. They brought in Chig Okonkwo at TE to replace Zach Ertz and he’s shown he can be a difference maker from his time in Tennessee.
The Eagles moved on from AJ Brown who wasn’t happy in the city of brotherly love and they drafted Makai Lemon in April, it’s been a rough summer for the kid though so they may well be looking even more run-heavy to start the year. Devonta Smith becomes the WR1, a spot he’s statistically done well in, but I just don’t ever seem to be able to consider him one of the top guys in the league, I’m sure I’m wrong on that one, but here we are. They’ve stacked a host of veterans behind these two with Hollywood Brown, Elijah Moore and Dontayvion Wicks on the roster as depth pieces. Dallas Goedert stayed on the roster and will likely become even more important in the redzone with AJB gone.
The run game though looks like it will be the main play and with Saquon Barkley “only” running for 1140 yards and scoring 9 TDs last year they’ll be hoping for a bounce-back from him. There’s no reason that won’t happen really and with Jalen Hurts legs adding to the ground attack they should be fine there. Tank Bigsby gets the backup role at RB.
Eagles should win and I’m a bit surprised to see the spread under a TD but it’s a divisional game and the Commies won the last time they faced each other in January. Above Evens for Jalen Hurts to score; Rachaad White o14.5 rec yards.
Cowboys -3 @ Giants: 48.5
The NFC East close out the night as well as the league get their precious Cowboys in the headline slot on the road at the Metlife facing the Giants.
“IT’S OUR YEAR” has been the call of Cowboys fans for decades now and has never rung true, but why the hell not this year?! Dak Prescott is a good QB and he’s got one of the best 1-2 punches in the league with Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens at WR as well as Jake Ferguson who had a host of opportunities at TE last season. Lamb and Pickens combined for over 2500 yards last year and that was with Lamb missing a portion of the season through injury. If both are healthy they should be able to outscore anyone.
The big beneficiary of potential back and forth games may be Javonte Williams who had a career year last season and has very little competition at running back to start the season with Malik Davis ruled out this week. He will get all the redzone work and should put up good numbers again this year.
The Giants when healthy should be a fun offense as well but the “when healthy” will be a big thing with their two main threats both prone to idiotic plays on the field. Jaxson Dart will be fun to watch when playing and will put his body on the line, but that must have been something they’ve worked on over the summer to try and keep him on the field. Then there’s Cam Skettebo who has a screw lose. He was a fun runner as well but again puts his body on the line and after missing the end of the year with a knee injury went on to try a backflip at the wrestling and land on it as well. He’s a strange one.
Malik Nabers is back for the start of the season and if he’s where he was before the injury should have a huge year with Malachi Fields behind him in the passing game, a rookie who has had a good off-season campaign. Odell Beckham has returned to his home field and Darnell Mooney round out a fairly good looking pass-catching group. Isaiah Likely came in from the Ravens at TE and he’s got the potential to be a top 10 player at the position this year.
This should be a fun game. Again it’s a divisional matchup and that always adds spice, but both teams should be able to put up points. Take the over, why the hell not. It’s 9-1 to the Cowboys over the last 5 seasons, but the 1 for the Giants came in January. Cowboys to cover. 11/4 Jake Ferguson (Sky/PP)
Broncos +2.5 @ Chiefs: 43.5
How things have changed. Mahomes to me remains the best QB in the league but he’s not fully healthy and the Broncos are expected to push for the Super Bowl. They would have been there last season if not for Nix gettting injured.
The Broncos bring in Jaylen Waddle as their WR1 and that’s a good group now with Sutton and Mimsy there as well as Evan Engram at TE. JK Dobbins is expected to be the RB1 when healthy with RJ Harvey behind him and rookie Jonah Coleman might be sniping some of the redzone looks.
Kenneth Walker the big news in this one after the SB MVP signed from the Seahawks for the Chiefs. Kelce returns as well and Rashee Rice has managed to avoid punishment for any of his stupidity so will suit up and be the main target here with Worthy and rookie Cyrus Allen behind him. Allen has had a lot of hype this summer.
It’s the Chiefs off of extended rest… although I think that narrative is now dead. The Broncos will be looking for the upset to start the year well and with Mahomes not fully fit I think they might get it.
TouchdownTips 
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