Patriots +3.5 @ Seahawks: 44.5
Annnnnd we’re back!!! Thanks to the wonders of corporate greed the season starts a day earlier this year on Wednesday night with a rematch of Februarys Super Bowl, as the reigning champion Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots.
It was a snug win for the Seahawks in 2025 finale as their top-ranked defense handled the Patriots easily enough to guide them to a 29-13 win. It didn’t come as too much of a surprise as the Patriots had a charmed run through the season and playoffs to make it to that game. How will both teams fare this season?
Before the preview… If you fancy a chance of winning a relatively big pot, have a look at my TouchdownTips Picks Contest – £100 entry, winner takes all. Pick 5 games a week against the spread.
Seahawks
Surprisingly for a Super Bowl winning team the Seahawks haven’t had much overhaul on their roster or their coaching staff so shouldn’t be far off the level they were last year with their Aden Durde coached defense looking to keep up their excellent work from last year. I’m not entirely confident they’ll hit the same heights as defense rankings are historically variable, but with little change in personnel they should be good still.
That means that Sam Darnold should get some good starting field positions and dice up teams mainly with Jaxon Smith-Njigba who showed last year that he was more than just a slot-boy by leading the league in yardage. The addition of Rashid Shaheed late in the season should play out well this year as he adds speed and deep shots to a passing game that is lacking a little behind JSN with Cooper Kupp nearing (if not over) the cliff and the mighty Jake Bobo on IR for the season.
AJ Barner had a career year last season and with rookie Elijah Arroyo not doing a whole lot it looks like he’ll have a chance to cement his place in that spot and have another good season. He’s always a good look to find the endzone.
They did however lose the first RB to become MVP in nearly 30 years with Kenneth Walker joining the Chiefs over the summer and with Zach Charbonnet on PUP to start the season it looks like they’ll be looking for Jadarian Price to hit the ground running…(I know) – They have said this week though that he won’t be the bellcow and they’ll rotate, so George Holani should add to his 97 career yards. Emmanuel Wilson has come over from the Packers and if they’re being truthful will likely get some touches as a passing-down back.
Price was picked up at the end of the first round having finished college with an 11 TD season at 6 yards per carry but he wasn’t a heavy use back so it will be interesting to see how he adapts to the league. Basically, they look considerably weaker on the ground than they did in February. Price at least shouldn’t have one of the others vulturing TDs.
Patriots
OK… I struggle with this team. So, apologies as this may well seem a fairly negative preview of them…
The Pats surprised a lot of people by making the Super Bowl last season but they had one of the easier schedules in recent history in the regular season and make good use of injury luck in the playoffs with wins against the Texans with no OL or Nico Collins, and the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham. When push came to the shove in the Super Bowl, against a proper team they were never in the game and MVP runner-up Drake Maye put up a 16 QBR.
Maye had a fantastic regular season and was rightly up there in the running for the MVP last year finishing 4th in yards, 3rd in TDs and top in QBR, and all of that without any stud talent at WR, sorry Stefon Diggs. He spread the ball around well and made some fantastic deep plays, he’s good with his legs and has a strong arm, there’s no real reason he can’t have a similar season this year with a re-vamped WR corps, but I am not one to get carried away and I want to see it happen before I declare him the 2nd best in the league as some seem to be doing already.
They will be without Treveyon Henderson for the opener so it’s all on Rhamondre Stevenson who likely would have had the larger share of carries anyway and is the more likely to find the endzone. He had a fair game in that SB and is adept through the air as well as on the ground. There’s really not anyone else behind him on the depth chart to worry about so they might have to mix it up with end-arounds and designed runs for Maye.
They have, on paper, improved their WR group over the summer with AJ Brown coming in from the Eagles… I will admit I have doubts on him as well but I can’t deny he’s an upgrade on where Diggs is now in his career. Brown has the size and ability to be a stud WR and while he upgrades the Pats, he gets an upgrade at QB as well so should be happier than he has been in recent season at the Eagles.
Romeo Doubs has come in from the Packers to add some experience and he’ll mix in with Demario Douglas and Kyle Williams with the younger guys looking to make some waves in the leagues after bit-part jobs on the whole last year. Shoeless Mack Hollins will likely be a good deep threat for them again.
Like AJ Barner on the other side of things Hunter Henry had a good season with the most yards he’s had over a year and his highest TD count in 4 years and with no real contest at the spot he should be on the field a lot, maybe my first TE double of the season in the opening game…
Again, like the Seahawks the Pats defense was the key to their run to the final last season and hasn’t had a whole lot of change either so should be a solid unit again with head coach Mike Vrabel having a large amount of control over that area.
Bets and winner?
On paper it should be a fun game to kick off the NFL season, but do I see it going any differently to when these two met in February? – I don’t think it will be as clear-cut this time around and I’m ready to having my assumptions of the Patriots questioned if they pull out the win here, but I’ll be taking the Seahawks to win by a TD.
My first thought was looking under the total as the defenses, to me, are the stronger areas of the teams but offenses are usually on top early in the season with so little tape out there of things implemented over the summer so while I still lean to the under it’s definitely not a bet for me.
I’ll be looking at Barner and Henry to score at middling prices and Price and Rhamo are rightly short-priced on the ground. Barner and Henry both to score at around 14/1 – 15/1 the best price at Boylesports.
Both QBs to throw an interception is probably a good look and I’ll be having a look towards Drake Maye rushing yards. His line is 24.5, I do like the over, I’ll take that at 10/11 Maye o24.5 rush yards.
Maye is 8/11 to throw an interception, Darnold at 5/6, doesn’t look like I can double them, I’d lean towards Maye but I’ll leave either of the singles.
That’s it for the opener. I’ll do something for tomorrow’s game in Australia as well with the Rams and 49ers opening their division at the MCG, and of course I’ll be back with previews for all the Sunday games as well! NFL IS BACK!
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