The Clocks go back this week, so games kick off at 5pm, 1700!! DON’T FORGET to sort fantasy lineups, bets etc.
Some great games coming up today, should be a lot of points, if you’ve not given DFS a go this week could be a good time for it.
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Browns -3 @ Bengals: 50.5
The first rematches of the season happen this week and that’s the case here with the Browns looking to sweep the Bengals after winning the first game 35-30 on the first TNF of the season. they ran all over the Bengals in that game, leading Joe Burrow to having to throw the ball 61 times in that loss.
This is very much changed. Both starting running backs miss out, Chubb we knew about but Mixon was a scratch this week leaving Kareem Hunt and Gio Bernard to lead the line for the teams. It’s a far bigger loss on the Cinci side as Gio hasn’t been great this year. Hunt is a very good back, they’ll use him a lot and probably D’Ernest Johnson in the second half. The Bengals may turn to Samaje Perine in short yardage or, hopefully, give Trayveon Williams a few snaps. The TD prices are much shorter than I’d have hoped on any of these guys though
The Bengals are weakened more on defense with William Jackson missing out, he’s their best corner and was on Beckham in that first game. Baker Mayfield was terrible last week carrying a rib injury against one of the best pass rushes in the league last week, it’s the opposite this week, the Bengals didn’t register a sack in the first meeting between the teams, he’ll have time and probably find his man. The Browns are without Austin Hooper though.
Browns win and cover, lean over the total
Packers -3.5 @ Texans: 57
The Packers were humbled by the Bucs last week, Rodgers thought he scored, he didn’t, then threw his first INT of the year, a pick 6, and looked thoroughly un-interested after that, they were horrible. That was with Davante Adams back, he seemed to target him too frequently and the Bucs D knew it, somehow it was a negative for them.
Aaron Jones should have a field day in this one as the Texnas rush D is awful, ranking 28th according to DVOA there. I’d assume they’d go back to basics and run him a lot. It looks like Aaron Jones might not play with a calf strain, they’re expecting Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon to have increased roles. Unfortunately we’ve missed the prices on them scoring, Dillon should be the goal-line back, 2/1 best priced on WillHill. Davante Adams will likely still get his 10 targets though.
The Texans have looked a lot more aggressive on offense since removing Bill O’Brien as head coach, so they’ll put up points as well, I’d imagine Jaire Alexander will be on Will Fuller and he’s done a good job of shutting down opposing players, so it could be a Brandin Cooks or god forbid, Randall Cobb game here.
Lean to the Packers and over, no bets.
Lions +2.5 @ Falcons: 55
Should be a high scoring affair, both teams come in off a win last week, the Lions doing what they should vs the Jags, Falcons fucking the Vikings who couldn’t do anything until it was too late last week.
D’Andre Swift finally got a bigger role for the Lions, I’m hoping that means he impressed in the bye week and will carry on getting a fair bit of the ball going forward, he looked good, although got to consider the opposition there. They’ve got Kenny Golladay another week healthier after a rough start to the season through injury and have said this week they want to try and get Marvin Jones the ball more.
They looked a little better on defense finally, but again that may well have been the opposition.
The Falcons looked good on both sides of the ball, Julio Jones had his big game for this half of the season finishing with a couple of scores and 137 yards last week as they abused a young Vikings secondary. Calvin Ridley scored again but is on the injury report this week which is a worry so it could mean more Russel Gage, he scored last week as well and all three should have a good game here.
Todd Gurley led the backfield but was inefficient, he’ll likely do more of the same here. He’s done fine this year, looks all right running the ball but nothing special tbh.
They were better on defense with players back and fresh coaching.
Nothing on the spread here, should be a lot of points, but it’s a high total.
Russel Gage 7/2 anytime (PP)
Panthers +7 @ Saints: 50
The Panthers have been better than expected after the big changes the team went through over the summer, they drafted a whole new defense, and replaced Cam Newton with Teddy B who has adequately this year, he’s better than most think and can make most passes as he has done for a lot of the season. Weirdly they’ve won more game with Mike Davis filling in for CmcC, he’s had a TD in each of the games he’s started, good on the ground and through the air.
Robby Anderson has emerged as the main man in the passing game and has at least 55 yards in each week, with 3 games going over 100 yards this season. DJ Moore was expected to get most of the work, he hasn’t but he’s still on target for around 1,200 yards, so hardy a bad season for him while they’re taking their time with Curtis Samuel. Not a whole lot of interest at TE.
The Saints are once again without Michael Thomas who seemingly recovered from his ankle injury to punch a team-mate and get suspended by the team, then pulled his hamstring this week which has ruled him out, and they’re reportedly open for massive trade offers on him now. Emmanuel Sanders is out too so they’re suspiciously thin at WR now, I assume Trequan Smith is the default #1 with Deonte Harris second in line there? Jared Cook could be in for a big role meaning Josh Hill could get action as well.
Realistically it will probably just mean that Alvin Kamara gets 50 touches per game rather than his usual 30-odd. He’s been immense this year only failing to score in last weeks game. He had multiple scores in the first 3 games of the year and is priced ridiculously short at 13/8 to repeat that. May well happen but you can’t back that price.
I think the Panthers cover the 7 points. May be 6.5 now, I’d say buy up to get the hook, the 7 is the most common point difference in the last couple of years (no longer 3)
Bills -10 @ Jets: 46
The Bills come in off the back of defeats to two of the better sides in the AFC in the Titans and the Chiefs on Monday night this week. The weather fucked up that game but they didn’t get their run game going like KC did. Josh Allen looked inaccurate again which is a worry after a few good games at the start of the year.
I’m surprised to see Stefon Diggs at plus money for a TD, he’s a brilliant receiver and could have had a couple on Monday although they were very tough catches to make. They are without John Brown so more Cole Beasley and the rookie Gabriel Davis should do well as he has done when he’s had to fill in for Brown so far this year.
They will be very short at TE though as Dawson Knox has tested positive for Covid and has taken 3 of the other TEs with him leaving Tyler Kroft pretty much the only man left from that room, could mean a sneaky little Reggie Gilliam, who knows.
The run game hasn’t really been clicking and with Zack Moss back last week it will probably been more of a split backfield, neither have been impressive this year.
The Jets… my god, the Jets. 0-6 straight up, 0-6 ATS, -110 point differential, and the first shut out for any time in their last game. They might welcome back Sam Darnold, which is better than Flacco, but it looks like Jamison Crowder will be out. They have however activated rookie Denzel Mims from the IR who I like the look of from the draft, he’s entering the worst spot any rookie could possibly imagine though so I’m not expecting much.
La’Mical Perine and Frank Gore shared carries last week, neither with a huge amount of success but they should be getting Perine more of the ball through each week this coming year, they’ve not got much else to do really.
The Jets are the first team in 451 occurrences dating back 11 years, to lose 3 consecutive games while winning the turnover battle in each of them. The closest loss they’ve had so far this year was 9 points against the Broncos 3rd string QB. (Credit RJ Bell podcast for that)
They’re horrendous, but can I pick the Bills to cover this? Obviously can’t take the Jets to cover, but I won’t be betting the Bills to cover 10 points even though they really should.
Cowboys -1 @ Washington: 45
Prime-time Andy Dalton… we should have known it would all go to shit on Monday. He’s awful when the TV cameras are on him. He wasn’t good, but the result wasn’t really on him, they’re terrible on defense, Zeke Elliott fumbled twice and Michael Gallup dropped an easy catch in the end-zone, things could have gone so differently for them.
They lost more men on the offensive line which has been the big issue for them, they’re down to 3rd or 4th string guys there now giving Dalton no protection and probably getting Zeke hit beore he’d really like as well.
I think Dalton will be fine this week and with Cooper, Lamb and Gallup he’s got weapons around him, I like Gallup and Lamb at their TD prices, Gallup seems to be a favoured target of his and 15/4 on 888 is good value for me.
Washington’s one strength is their defensive line which will be giving Dalton hell for a lot of the game with Chase Young probably back for them this week. It’s the one thing that worries me about taking Dallas to win again.
The Washington offense is not good, so they’ll have to rely on their defense to try and keep this game close, saying that, they are playing the worst defense in the league so even they may be able to put up points in this game. If they do I’d assume it’d be either Antonio Gibson from out of the backfield of Terry McLaurin who’s a very good receiver for them. Saying that, JD McKissic did get a worrying amount of touches for them last week.
I can’t be having Washington near pickem here, and have to take the Cowboys again. Nuttin on the total.
Steelers +1.5 @ Titans: 50.5
1700 kick off – SkySportsNFL
The best game of the early slate sees a battle of the unbeaten sides, and I’m seemingly on my own here thinking that both teams are over-rated. I’ve heard rankings having the Steelers as the 2nd best team in the league so far this year. I like to think I can judge teams without bias, but I may be swayed by my dislike of this bunch of cunts.
I stand by the fact they’ve beaten no-one this year, some of the worst teams in the league and the Browns last week with Baker Mayfield with bruised ribs, Beckham and Landry injured too. It was their best win of the season but Baker was clearly playing injured and afraid of being hit by the best pass rush in the league.
They once used the exact same play with Claypool from the 1 crossing the formation and strolling into the endzone, apparently he’s on a level with Calvin Johnson after his few games in the league. Apparently Ben has been brilliant, I’ve not seen it but he’s been fine. I would love to take a victory lap on Juju not being a #1 receiver, he’s been poor this year so no doubt will have a great game here now I’ve mentioned it. I said he was poor last year, but apparently that year is void, and he’s just Sooooooooo young so you’re not allowed to criticise him because he’s done well before 23, strange that when you start so young. Fuck him, the prick. James Washington? Meh.
James Conner has looked better since the first couple of games of the season and DeCastro should be back to strengthen their offensive line even more, it’s one of the best units in the league and they got Benny Snell a TD last week as they were destroying the Browns.
I hate them, but I’ll admit they’re above average in most areas. OL is great, QB, WR are good, RB is fine. Defensively they’ve not been to the levels you’d expect but the pass rush is arguably the best in the league and the secondary could be up there. They’re the best run-stuffers so far this year although the loss of Devin Bush to an ACL at middle LB could be important for them.
I’m not going to say the Titans have beaten anyone this year either really, the Broncos, Jags, the 1-5 Vikings, smashed the Bills, and the Texans in OT, so at least one good win there.
The Titans love to run the ball, Derrick Henry had over 200 yard again last week and 2 TDs on the ground, he’s the man they aim to use, and everything runs off of him. He’s a phenom, if he gets up a head of steam then you’re going to struggle to stop someone of that size. He’s the key to the game really and it will be truly intriguing to see how it pans out.
Ryan Tannehill has carried on his form from the end of last season and is looking very good once again, QBR ranks him 4th, he’s 5th in TDs, 4th in INTs for the season. He doesn’t mind getting hit and usually makes an accurate throw while getting twatted.
They should have AJ Brown and Jonnu Smith who are the two main men in the passing game. Smith has 5 TDs this year, and could well have had another last week had he not gone out of the game. My boy Firkser scored his first of the season on the one week I didn’t back him, he’s actually had a lot of yardage this year without scoring much. Brown has looked great since he came back, good hands and the size to beat most players going up against him. Adam Humphries adds in, and they should have Corey Davis back after missing a couple of weeks so they’re pretty much fully fit.
Defensively they’re not great, and don’t get a whole lot of pressure, that’s the one area they’re lacking in this game and that will be the area which costs them.
This is going to be a very interesting game and is rightly the one on Sky Sports this week. The key is whether the Steelers stop Derrick Henry, do that and they win. They should win anyway in fairness. I like the TE in the middle of the field for the Titans, they like targeting them anyway, and without Bush there, there could be an advantage for them.
Titans have only covered 1 spread this year despite their record. Steelers are 4-1 ATS. The Titans have scored in all but 3 qtrs so far, and the Steelers in all but 2 (out of 20 each). Both average over 31 pts per game… It’s finely balanced.
This line has been all over the place from -2 to the Steelers to +1.5 at 8am Sunday, it’s now +1, I think the Steelers win. Got to lean over the total.
Bucs -5 @ Raiders: 52
This game has been an adventure already, the Raiders are without Trent Brown who tested positive for Covid, it turns out he wasn’t wearing his tracer so they couldn’t see who had been near him and they quarantined the whole offensive line. It seems like most of them will be available as they’ve tested negative but it’s been a messy week for them and they are definitely without their best piece.
It’s a shame as Carr had actually been making some downfield plays with protection and that could go out of the window here. It hurts the run game as well which has been average anyway after Josh Jacobs had a brilliant start to the season his average yards aren’t great. He’s very very good but against a brilliant run-stopping unit it would have been a struggle even with a full OL there.
Henry Ruggs might struggle too if Carr doesn’t get time, he’s had more 20+ yard targets than anyone else in the league and his line vs the Chiefs was what we expected, 2 receptions for 118 and a TD. Bryan Edwards is still out so you’re looking at Agholor (who’s had some big catches in fairness) and Renfrow to step up again, but more likley a big dose of Darren Waller.
The Bucs are pretty much at full strength, Leonard Fournette returns to muddy the backfield. I think it will be mainly Ronald Jones as he’s been running really well by himself, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Lenny come in for goal-line or 3rd/4th quarter work when the opposing D is tiring.
Evans and Godwin should be fit and Gronk scored last week in their rout of the Packers. To add to all this they signed Antonio Brown who should be available week 9 onwards. Safe to say they’re going all in this year with old man Brady.
Before the OL news this line opened at Tampa -2. They should still win and cover even at 5.
Chiefs -7 @ Broncos: 44
The Chiefs had a surprise Monday night game last week in NY as they beat the Bills in a rain storm, the weather this week looks like it’s going to be worse with snow showers expected during the game in Denver, 17f, it’s gonna be cold.
The weather could be a damper on the pass game, but the Chiefs showed last week they’re fine with that loading up Clyde Edward-Helaire with 26 carries, he racked up 161 yards on the ground, they Darrel Williams came in and go the TD of course. This week they’ll have Lev Bell available but it’s yet to be seen what his role will be here, I’d imagine he’ll get a few carries but not too much more.
I don’t want to bang on about it but the weather could mess up the pass game a fair bit, so I’ll probably not mention it too much, we all know the Chiefs way. Tight ends usually do well against Denver, so Kelce should have a good one.
The worst game of Drew Locks short career came in the snow in KC. Could have just been one of those things and it was early on, but it’s a worry. They welcome back Melvin Gordon who missed last week, Philip Lindsay did well in his place but Mel is better.
Tim Patrick has 100 yards in consecutive games now and went over his 3.5 reception line last week, WEATHER! 4 or more receptions in the last 3 games for him this year, Lock likes him. Albert O got involved last week and arguably should have had a TD at 22/1 it will be interesting to see how he’s used this week.
I’m staying away from this, Chiefs should win but I won’t take the spread, keep an eye on the weather as it could be an easy under should it get heavy there.
49ers +2.5 @ Patriots: 44.5
An interesting game in place here. The young pretender taking on the old master as Shanahan takes on Belichick.
The 49ers will be without Raheem Mostert for the next 3 weeks so it’s more disruption to a backfield which has had to be changed every week so far this season, they should have Tevin Coleman back for next week, but this week it looks like McKinnon and a mix of big Jeff and JaMycal Hasty. The rookie got some action lsat week with Wilson injured, but Wilson returns this week and usually scores when he plays.
It looks like Deebo is back to full health which is big for their passing game, I won’t say he’s key to it (that’s Kittle) but he adds something that none of the other WRs have been able to provide so far. The way they run their offense provides mismatches so you probably can’t say anyone will be locked down by Glmore here. Aiyuk has mixed in, Kendrick Bourne does a bit but hasn’t found the endzone yet this year after being a redzone threat last year. George Kittle is brilliant, not much else to say on him.
I think I like the Pats in this one, they know Jimmy Garoppolo better than anyone and Bill will know how to stop what he does well (does he do anything well?)
The 49ers struggle against mobile QBs and that’s where the Pats have a bit of an edge with Cam Newton, he’s the lowest price anytime scorer here so the books seem to agree with that, he left a lot on the field last week in a bad game-script but his pass catching talent is poor. I’d expect him to have a fair few rush yards tonight.
James White led the team in receiving yards last week which optimises this NE offense, when you’re centering a passing game around R to the Izzo it’s not a good thing. Edelman 179 yard against the Seahawks but just 64 yards in the 3 games since then. Damiere Byrd gets a few receptions a game, but it’s anaemic.
The run game isn’t great either, Damien Harris is the lead back there, he came back well but was poor last week.
Lean to the Pats, but it’s a firm avoid for me.
Jags +7 @ Chargers: 49
The Jags are terrible. The win against the Colts in week 1 threw us all off the smell of stink around the franchise, but they’ve shown it in the last month or so and I’m fairly confident saying they’re not very good.
Minshew will be a career backup, he threw up an awful interception last week. He’s mobile and fun to watch but I don’t think he’s starter calibre. He’s been getting Laviska Shenault more involved, DJ Chark should be healthier this week after being a little banged up last week and Keelan Cole keeps popping up with the odd TD now and then.
James Robinson is a bright spot for them though, he’s looked good all year on the ground and catching from the backfield and should be the man going forward for them at running back. Chris Thompson has gone on the Covid IR, and they activated Devine Ozigbo. 11/2 best price on him scoring.
The Chargers look like they’ve got their man at QB with Justin Herbert now leading the OROY race after a few good performances, he’s got one hell of an arm on him as shown by some bomb TDs that he’s thrown so far this year. 7 TDs in his last 2 games against the Bucs and Saints, he’s going to keep the Chargers exciting this year at the very least.
They should have a full compliment on offense this week too with Keenan Allen available after back spasms put him out of their last game. Mike Williams stepped up in that game with some big catches, he goes higher than anyone else in the league and should be the main RZ/deep ball threat. Hunter Henry seems to have been getting more involved too which is good as he should be one of the better TEs in the league but has started fairly slow this year. The rookies have chipped in too Jalen Guyton is pacy and Herbert has the arm to utilise that.
I think Justin Jackson will lead the running back group, he’s playing but was limited this week with a knee which is annoying as I planned to use him as a cheap back in DFS. Joshua Kelley has looked fine, but has had a few key fumbles which will limit his role in the offense until he can prove he can hold on to the ball
The Chargers should win and cover this week. The only worry being that all 5 of their games have been 1 score games so far this year. It’s what they do.
Seahawks -3 @ Cardinals: 55
This one got moved into the late slot as there was worry around the Raiders being able to play and it should be a good one for us in the UK at an earlier kick off time than usual.
The Seahawks are coming off their bye with a 5-0 record, covering the spread in 4 of those 5 games in one-score wins.
Russel Wilson is leading the MVP race and rightly so, he’s been clutch, as always but has been allowed to pass the ball earlier in games, despite them having the bye week he leads the league in TD passses so far this season.
With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett receiving it makes perfect sense, they’re up there as a top 3 duo in the league. DK looks like he’s the #1 there now, he’s bigger and quicker than most players who go up against him, he can beat you with strength in contested catches or just run past you, he’s very good to watch out there, he’s scored in all bar one game this season including the game winner last time they played. Lockett is usually more of a possession receiver. They’ve also got David Moore who makes highlight reel catches every now and then.
The tight ends chip in as well, Greg Olsen has done well since joining and Will Dissly scored for them last time out.
Chris Carson will have appreciated the rest after a few knocks, he’s scored 6 TDs this year, 3 rushing, 3 receiving and has looked good every time I’ve seen bits of him on redzone. They should have Carlos Hyde back for this too after missing a couple of games through injury to back him up.
The Cardinals smashed the Cowboys last week taking advantage of the turnovers they caused even without their best pass rusher as Chandler Jones is out for a while now.
They messed up Andy Dalton and Budda Baker had probably a career game, he was all over the field, however I think Russell Wilson will be able to deal with what’s thrown at him this week.
Offensively it was a weird box score. Kyler Murray completed 9 of 24 passes, 2 of them were TDs and he finished on 188 yards passing, it shouldn’t happen again but this Seahawks defense has been terrible and is missing Jamal Adams again this week, so who knows. Kyler is probaly the shiftiest running back in the league, his short yard quickness is impressive and it’s gained him 370 and 6 rushing TDs this year (of course the one week he didn’t score was the week I backed him)
Deandre Hopkins has been his favourite target but has been on the injury report this week, he’ll be playing, he always does but there’s a worry he’s a bit limited. Christian Kirk finally stood up and had a big game last week, 2 TDs and 86 yards. Two games in a row he’s put up good numbers now, might have to look at him in DFS.
Kenyan Drake ran all over the Cowboys in his best game of the season, his yards per attempt have been poor this year, but it’s consecutive weeks with a rushing TD now. They don’t seem to be using him in the passing game which is weird, that role has gone to Chase Edmonds it seems who pops up with a TD every other week or so.
I think the Seahawks win and cover in this one, I think the Cardinals are over-rated on last weeks performance and the bye week will have given Seattle time to gameplan for this.
Kirk and Edmonds are both good prices to score, both 5/2
I seem to have hit two of three every week this season, so play them as singles if you’re sensible. I’ll still be listing as a treble on the spreadsheet though as I’m an idiot.
- Browns -3
- Steelers +1
- Seahawks -3
- Stefon Diggs – 2.2 (PaddyPower)
- Tyler Kroft – 4.33 (Skybet)
- Russell Gage – 4.5 (Paddypower)
- Michael Gallup – 4.75 (888)
- Jonnu Smith – 3.25 (PP), Anthony Firkser – 7.00 (365) – 1 pt each (fairly confident one of them finds the endzone)
- Alvin Kamara o54.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet)
- Joe Burrow o11.5 rush yards – 1.83 (Skybet)
- D’Andre Swift o33.5 rush yard – 1.83 (365/Skybet)
That’ll do. The Swift rush yards is a little risky as it’s the Lions and logical coaching doesn’t seem to work with them. but after last week I hope they give him 10 or so attempts.
Good luck if you’re following, remember the games kick off earlier this week!
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