It’s Remembrance weekend in the UK this week, so as always, I will ask that if you win a decent amount this weekend, you consider donating to the RBL to help them support our veterans. https://www.britishlegion.org.uk/get-involved/donate. Never was so much owed by so many, to so few.
International games took a week off last week but are back with BY FAR the best of the lot (I’m a Bengals fan) in Madrid. Even trying to look through neutral eyes this should be a fun one at 1430 UK time.
On paper it’s actually a pretty horrible slate. There’s not really a standout game on the early slate, and in my opinion the only interesting game of the whole day is the Pats and Packers in the 2125 slot. Bills v Vikings on Monday could be interesting, I guess, but probably won’t be a point-fest. YAY FOOTBALL
The Steelers and Titans have the week off.
Bengals -3.5 v Falcons: 52.5 (1430)
The NFL circus arrives in Madrid for the second time as the 5-2 Bengals face the 3-5 Falcons at the Bernabéu stadium. Last year went to OT, but still finished way under the total at 16-13. It was apparently the 5th highest viewed International game and this time around they’ve even decided to give good teams a go to see what ratings they can get.
The Bengals needed OT to beat the lowly Titans, at home, last weekend. Not the best preparation for this trip, but it showed that the offense is still good enough to overcome anything and the defense did turn up when push came to shove. Burrow ended with 5 passing TDs and rushed in the OT winner as he makes his case for his first MVP award.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both topped 140 yards and had a TD apiece. It’s been a great year for Higgins due to the coverage that goes to Chase as he sits 2nd in yardage, at a 3rd placed 16.9 yards per reception. The WR3 is basically vacant so it’s probably going to be Chase Brown and Mike Gesicki who scored for the 5th game in a row last week, the longest streak of his career. Dohnte Meyers is the de facto WR3 and has proved fine when required.
The run game is Chase Brown with Samaje Perine mixing in. It’s been a frustrating year for Chase Brown who only has the 1 TD from the opening game, although he did have one called back this weekend from a foul that wasn’t anything to do with the play, so he was hard-done-by there. There’s been talk of the Bengals trading for an RB but I don’t see that happening.
The defense has been giving up points, but getting pressure as well as they sit 4th in the league with 23 in the season so far. Dexter Lawrence has been a great pickup and changed what they can do up front.
The Falcons got hammered last weekend as Michel Penix failed to deal with the downpour conditions in Tampa, throwing 8 completions to his own team-mates and 4 to the opponents. He finished with a lower QBR than Baker Mayfield who completed ZERO passes. I think it’s safe to say that was an anomaly and he’ll feel much more at him in the dome in Madrid. He’s a fine QB and should have a good game.
Bijan and Jahmyr are the top 2 in the league at the moment with Bijan Robinson currently leading the league in rushing yards. His low for the year is 61 yards, and he’s added another 203 receiving yards as well as the complete back. He’s actually only scored in 3 games but I think that may well change against a Bengals team who let Tony Pollard run through them like they weren’t there. Brian Robinson is on IR now, so Khalil Herbert will back him up.
Drake London has at least 10 targets in half their games this year and on a first, indoor pitch he’ll likely be up there again in this one, he’s currently 6th in receiving yardage this year but only has 1 TD on the season. Even Kyle Pitts has more than that and he gets a nice matchup looking for his 5th score of the season, he had made it 3 games in a row before the farce last weekend which I’m fine to write off. Jahan Dotson has a couple of scores this season but I think it’s safe to say he and Olamide Zaccheus aren’t the best WR2 and 3 in the league.
Give me the over! If the Bengals and Titans can hit 80 points outside then I don’t see how this game doesn’t go over 53. I’d have said the Bengals at 3 points, but I think I’ve got to lean to the Falcons at 3.5 – Dotson 20+ yard reception – Evens.
Browns +3.5 @ Saints: 42.5
Sheduer Sanders is due to start this one with a concussion stopping Watson as the Browns look to take back top spot in the AFC North. The NFC South is a dumpster-fire but the Saints come off their bye looking to win a home game for the first time this year.
Sanders starting at QB probably means good things for Harold Fannin, who had by some way the best game of his season last week with 10 for 154 yards against the Steelers. Shed loved him last year so it should be a game for him. Judkins has run well and the return of Dylan Sampson last week was a positive for the Browns too. KCC and Boston look like good picks but we haven’t seen them with this QB, so they’re off limits for betting purposes from me.
The Saints are giving Jodyn Tyson his season debut as he’s overcome yet another muscular injury, he’ll surely go in as the WR2 behind Olave and gives Tyler Shough a nice other target. The Saints have been terrible in first halves this year so it will be interesting to see how they do coming off a week off. Juwan Johnson isn’t backable at the moment, and with Tyson coming back they’ve cut Kendre Miller, so I guess it’s pretty much all Alvin Kamara in the run game, CJ Donaldson is the RB2 this week I assume? Although Audric Estime was re-signed off the Browns practice squad this week so will probably score.
Not the best game on paper but I’ll take the Saints getting that home win, and covering the small spread. and now nothing on the spread which is up from 1.5 just last night. Kamara at 11/4 is too big to ignore, without Miller there stealing TDs I think he’s got more chance. He’s near enough the same price at Estime is now.
Cowboys -4.5 @ Colts: 51.5
Was -6 on Thursday… The Cowboys can’t get out of their own way, the Colts look like they might actually be keeping hold of their players.
What to say about the Cowboys? They’re the Man United of the NFL, just consistently providing laughs to those off us who don’t support them. I’m sure next year will be their year though. George Pickens is hopeful of playing through injury, he and Ceedee Lamb should essentially win the Cowboys half their games but that never happens. Javonte Williams has run well all year and has 9 total TDs. Yet they still can’t win games… Maybe Joey Porter Jnr. is just a prick who brings it with him everywhere he goes? Ryan Flournoy probably still a good look for o3.5 especially if Pickens is in any way limited.
I can’t say anything positive about the Colts, JT and JD (Josh Downs) are supposedly on the trade block so we have no idea how much either will play. Apparently there’s talk of Dan Jones being traded but I can’t see any team desperate enough to do that, not even the Vikings. Either way it’s all a horrible mess for them. Seth McGowan could be the play as RB2.
I mean, the Cowboys should win and cover, but I can’t back them not being a hilarious shambles and entertaining the neutrals even more. Ryan Flournoy o3.5 receptions – 5/6 – He’s been getting touches with Pickens healthy, he should get 4 with him banged up.
Broncos -2.5 @ Panthers: 44.5
The Broncos led the AFC West after beating the Chiefs last week, the Panthers injuries look like they’ve caught up with them after another loss last weekend.
The BBC comments section… well, any comment section really isn’t the place for balanced arguments but I did appreciate “how their QB can look so poor but so confident at the same time is baffling” and I thought that’s a great way to descrive Bo Nix. He’s looks like the worst QB in the league for so much of each game but in the 4th quarter he gets the job done. Of course having a good HC and a great defense helps that happen, but still. It’s, well, it’s not impressive, but it’s something. Jonah Coleman (as I said) looks like the RB1 there for the time being and he found the endzone last week. He’s good in the air on the ground and has much more pop than JK Dobbins. The passing game still isn’t really working so there’s much to talk about there. Nate. Adkins. He’s the man who scores with every catch, well not quite, 50% of his catches this year have been TDs, he used to be double-digits every week but they’ve caught on and he’s best priced 15/2 now.
The Panthers are fun at least, you know there should be a lot of points in their games. Chuba Hubbard seems reliable and has no contest at the RB position so he should be a solid bet. The passing game though is far tougher to call. Jalen Coker scored last week but only had 2 receptions; Tet McMillan led them and should do every week and Darren Waller is a useful RZ but can’t be trusted on a weekly basis.
A tough one to call with the Broncos on the road, but I feel the injuries have mounted on the Panthers and they’ll struggle to do much the rest of the year. I guess over on the total. Jonah Coleman o23.5 rec yards (PP)
Lions -6.5 @ Dolphins: 49.5
The Lions are third in division at 5-2 while the Dolphins continue to exist.
Last week can be written off on the whole, the Vikings defense is rather good. But the Lions got the win and the loss of Jack Campbell will give them extra motivation to destroy this Dolphins team this week. I hope. Again. Jameson Williams hits a streak and stays hot, he scored their 1 receiving TD last week and I wouldn’t say no to him doing it again this week. Obviously ARSB is very good and will get most of the catches in the middle of the field. Jahmyr Gibbs had 150 yards last week and sits 2nd in carries and rush yards, it’s him and Bijan at the top of that position now and probably for the next few years.
Malik Willis has been fine. His WRs aren’t reliable on a week-to-week basis but he’s kinda got the job done? I don’t know. I guess Ollie Gordon is the only trustworthy piece of this offense. In fairness he’s been fairly good and the Lions defnese isn’t good, especially with one of their best LBs missing. TE’s have had their way against the Lions of Greg Dulcich could be on for a good game. Will Kacmarek is their TE2, if you want 15/1 on him it’s out there, but he’s had 3 catches all year.
I’ll probably be taking the Lions at under a TD. Greg Dulcich at 10/3 (Sky) has to be the selection from this game.
Rams -4.5 @ Commanders: 47.5
Rough year for the pre-season faves, but they easily beat the Chargers last week. The Commies have a chance of the NFC East with the Eagles dying and will be looking for 2 in a row after beating the Eagles last week.
Puka. Kyren. Corum. The TEs. That’s the Rams. Not a fun team to write about, Puka will get 10 targets, Kyren Williams with have an unpredictable split at RB and one of the TEs will randomly have a career game. For betting purposes it’s rough.
Antonio Williams might be the man for betting here, he’s been solid throughout with 3+ receptions but he had 7 targets last week and might be the guy that JD is looking for. Diggs is fine, Chig Okonkwo is a solid TE. Rachaad White is the RB1 and scored last week, but it’s a little surprising to me that Ekeler didn’t even get a target in the passing game. Personally I like Jeremy McNichols for RZ work but he’s a tough bet.
Not a fan of anything here, I’d lean to the Commanders at home as the dogs but it’s a hold-your-nose type thing. Under on the total if anything.
Giants -3.5 @ Eagles: 38.5
It’s not far off 20 years since the Giants were favoured in Philadelphia, but with Hurts out and McKee stinking the Eagles have moved to Joe Milton and here we are. The 4-2-1 Giants are faves. The injury report for these two teams is quite a sight.
JJ McCarthy has been fine for the Giants but they’ll be without Cam Skattebo this week meaning Devin Singletary gets pretty much all the workload on the ground with Tyrone Tracey on IR. The passing game will surely be Malik Nabers and Isiah Likely getting 10 targets each. Malachi Fields looks like a half-decent WR2 option I guess. I don’t know, they keep grinding out results but other than the big 2 there’s not much to get excited about.
Joe Milton starts for the Eagles and he’s got a cannon of an arm, so I don’t mind taking his longest reception to be o31.5, my worry is that there’s no-one to take make that catch with Smith and Wicks both missing out. Makai Lemon seems to be on short work and other than him you’re looking at Darius Cooper and Hollywood Brown. Saquon will play but who knows for how long and Elijah Mitchell will get touches as well.
Joe Milton longest pass completion – o31.5 yards he’s got a cannon! It’s not often there’s an NFL players who’s name I have never seen or heard of, but welcome Gregory Desrosier for the Giants. His rushing line is 12.5, I have no idea if he’ll even get a snap but with the injuries to others he’s in with a chance apparently.
Jets +9.5 @ Chiefs: 47.5
Another AFC East which exists, and the Chiefs who have levelled out after a good start.
I guess Adonai Mitchell was over his finger injury last week then? He had a big game and with Garrett Wilson missing this one he probably becomes the WR1 with Omar Cooper slotting in behind him after doing nothing (literally not a target) last week. Maybe it will be a TE week for them as Sadiq and Taylor are both fairly good. Breece Hall should be back for them on the ground so I wouldn’t be backing anything to do with Braelon Allen this week other than the unders.
Outside of Rashee Rice the Chiefs WR group is poor and despite Travis Kelce continuing to put up numbers it’s not great in the passing game so I think they’ll struggle against good teams. This week should be a bounce back for Kenneth Walker though after a couple of downers. Emmet Johnson had a big game last week but can’t be relied on for 26 yards a touch on a weekly basis. He definitely went over his 7.5 rec yards line last week at least. Give me that again please!
I don’t want anything to do with this game. If I was being forced I’d take the Jets getting the points. AD Mitchell o3.5 receptions – 5/6 (PP); Cyrus Allen o1.5 receptions – 11/10 (PP)
Texans -5.5 @ Chargers: 40.5
What a shitshow the AFC South is. I guess the Texans are trying to make it worthwhile but I wouldn’t be surprised if both of these teams lose. It’s not possible, but they’ll find a way. Justin Herbert is the greatest sportsman on earth and none of the issues of his team are his fault, not even when he throws to the numbers of an opposing player.
David Montgomery is out again, so Woody Marks should get most of the touches with Britain Brooks behind him, but they should go pass-heavy with more weapons there. Nico Collins is great, Tank Dell is back and I think Marv Harrison should be a good signing for them, but it was Dalton Schultz who had the catches last time out.
The Chargers just aren’t good. Nothing work there.
I got nothing. Vidal at 9/2 and Keaton Mitchell at 7/1 are screaming at me at the odds, but I can’t pick between the two to score and either way they’re long shots.
Raiders +9.5 @ 49ers: 52.5
It’s the highest total on the board for a reason, the Raiders seems to be able to score and the 49ers come off their bye week.
Mike Washington or Ashton Jeanty is apparently a real question now. I guess Jeanty goes back to getting the bulk of the touches but Washington had 25 carries to Jeanty’s 2 last weekend. Brock Bowers is the man in the passing game at least and maybe Mike Mayers behind him as they have no recognisable WR1.
The 49ers come off their bye no healthier. Mike Evans is out and maybe heading to IR now, like Christian Kirk is. So more on the ground for CMC and Kaelon Black I guess? Good news for George Kittle owners as there isn’t really anyone else in the passing game. WAIT! Is that Demarcus Robinson’s music?! Rising like a phoenix for a game is the deep threat.
The lack of options will hurt the 49ers at some point and while I don’t rate the Raiders I’ll take them getting 9.5 here. Demarcus Robinson o34.5 rec yards.
Cardinals +8.5 @ Seahawks: 39.5
It’s Gardner Minshew for the Cardinals who trade Jacoby Brissett to the Ravens. The Seahawks defense should get it done here.
Trey McBride hit his 7 receptions again last weekend, safe to say he’s good and reliable and Michael Wilson had 111 yards through the air. Beyond them it’s rough. Tyler Allgeier got the carries, yards and a couple of scores, with Jeremiah Love on IR it’s surely him getting all the work on the ground now?
The Seahawks run game has many options now with Price and Charbonnet back. I think we can probably assume it won’t be Emmanuel Wilson despite how he did with everyone else out. JSN is unstoppable. There’s nothing else.
I have to take the Cardinals on that spread. Over on a low total.
Packers +3.5 @ Patriots: 44.5
The best game of the afternoon/evening slate sees the NFC North and AFC East clash with both teams at 5-3 coming off wins last week. The Packers have the extra rest, but the travel so all things are nice and even.
The Packers welcomed back Josh Jacobs (for now) a couple of weeks back and he’s scored in each game since, although they might want a little more than 1.9 yards per carry behind a soft offensive line. With him back there’s not much for anyone else for Lloyd and Pierre Strong are relegated to bit-part roles.
The inefficiency at RB wasn’t matched in the passing game though with Matthew Golden stepping up this year as predicted and Christian Watson continuing his downfield dominance leading them once again. Watson had 114 yards on 8 catches, Golden 7 for 79 and a TD, and Tucker Kraft had arguably his best game of the year as well with his third TD of the season. I know @paulsingh22 is high on Savion Williams this week if you check out his twitter you’ll see what he’s recommending there, and why. It’s not one I’ll be tailing which may be to my detriment as he’s a superstar on props.
The Pats have fully rebounded from a slow start with Drake Maye on fire in recent weeks as they’ve won 4 of their last 5 with him throwing 14 TDs and just 1 INT over that period. He’s been rushing for TDs in that up-tick period as well which was a big bit of the game plan last year, and with Treveyon Henderson out for an extended period due to “neurological issues” they’ll have to look to him and Corey Kiner to back up Rhamondre Stevenson. Rhamo only has 3 scores on the year but has at least reduced the fumbles and Kiner looks like a decent enough RB2 for them.
The passing game is again without AJ Brown (who’d have thought that would be a bad trade…) so it will be mixed around Pop Douglas, Kyle Williams, Mack Hollins, Efton Chism, who had 5 receptions last weekend, and the tight ends. Hunter Henry has proven himself reliable for years now, and Eli Raridon looks like a solid target for Maye, especially as a redzone threat. He’s not really backable to me at a best price of 9/4 though, the boat has sailed on him. In fact the odds for any player on the Pats are too short for me to really be looking at.
I can fairly strongly say that one of Golden or Watson will find the endzone. They’re both best priced at 15/8 at BoyleSports and Watson is the one I’ve been taking at decent odds on the random 1st TD scorer Trixies I’ve backed recently. So I’ll say Watson anytime – 15/8 (BoyleSports); Corey Kiner o24.5 rush yards – tough game to call, I think I’d take the 3.5 if I had to.
Bucs +6 @ Bears: 47.5
The Buccs won with no completed passes last weekend, the Bears pushed all-in after giving up 2 1st round picks for Jeffrey Simmons and it helped them get the win and move to 6-2.
The NFC South is a mess with 3 of the teams on 3 wins, including now the Bucaneers who have struggled to move the ball through the air in tough conditions in recent weeks. Not only did they win with no completions last weekend, it’s just 7 completions in 2 weeks for Mayfield since he returned from a finger injury, but they’ve won both with the dominance of Bucky Irving and the run game. Bucky has 3 games over 100 yards on the ground now with 2 in the last 2 weeks and 4 TDs in the last month, he’s been better than I thought he would be on the ground and they’ve definitely got the faith in him. The worry for betting is that Sean Tucker and Kenneth Gainwell are both pretty good behind him and can seal TDs.
It looks like Emeka Egbuka might return which should help them in the passing game as Chris Godwin seems to be on the edge of the cliff and the younger guys just aren’t getting it done. Tez Johnson has scored his random TD for the month, Ted Hurst doesn’t seem reliable at the moment and Cade Otton seems underused at TE. In a game they will surely have to pass more I’d expect it to be mainly Egbuka and Otton getting the targets.
The Bears have a great play-caller, a good QB and an all around decent offense who are fun to watch, it helps that they can rely on D’Andre Swift who has shrugged off all knocks this year to be leading the league in rushing 10 TDs at this point after a hat-trick last week against Seattle. That game put him to 7 TDs in his last 4 games without Kyle Monangai on the field and cements him one of the better RBs in the league at the moment.
The passing game is Luther Burden and Rome Odunze with Colston Loveland mixing and Kaliff Raymond mixing in. It’s tough to pick who will get the ball each game but Burden and Loveland had 7 receptions each last weekend with Burden scoring the TD. Raymond was used a lot early on but has gone off the boil in recent weeks, he is usually good for a punt at 20+ yard receptions though due to his pace.
Bears should win and I think they cover, but Baker is frustrating in his tenacity and will probably keep things fairly close. Over on the total.
Bills -3.5 @ Vikings: 45.5
Monday Night Football sees two of the top teams in terms of records with both sitting at 6-1. The Bills come off their bye week, the Vikings are home after their first loss of the season in Detroit.
Josh Allen is correctly leading the betting in the MVP race with 20 total TDs this season, including a rushing score in all but one game this year. This will be the toughest defense he’s faced though which will make things a little more interesting at least. He doesn’t have that stud WR, although DJ Moore returning has definitely aided that area of the game, he had 82 yards and a TD last weekend, although with Kincaid who bounced back from a few down weeks to notch up 86 and his TD. Behind him the ever reliable Khalil Shakir gets a lot of shorter work and Cook and Johnson the RBs will get some catches as well. Josh Palmer the deep threat.
Cook will get the bulk of the carries and he’s fine with them, although Allen has been robbing all the 10-zone work recently so he’s a tough one to back week-to-week for a TD. Ty Johnson does well with the passing work though and it could be a him week as the Vikings tend to get a lot of pressure on opposing QBs and dump-offs work well to beat that.
The Vikings offense was spluttering along with Kyler Murray, but with him missing this week with a hamstring injury from stretching to get something out of the top cupboard they’ll be starting Carson Wentz. Wentz had a couple of games early in the year and won both and this is a nice matchup for opposing QBs so he should be fine.
The run game for the Vikings isn’t helping things as Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones have struggled to get going this year, 13 carries for 42 yards between them last week isn’t going to help anyone. They have Justin Jefferson back and you’d think the gameplan will be chuck it towards him 20 times a game but they seem to struggle even managing to do that. He did find the endzone last weekend but a long of 9 yards shows how poor the passing game has been this year under Kyler.
Jordan Addison got a lot of targets and will catch the odd deep shot, so can’t really be trusted, so you’re looking at TJ Hockenson behind Jeff and frankly not a whole lot else. Maybe a random punt on backup TE Gavin Bartholemew scoring with Wentz back at QB. With Josh Oliver on IR there’s room for a different backup TE to get involved with the QB who’s used to training with.
I think the Bills win and cover, I don’t think the Vikings can cope playing against a good offense. Ty Johnson 3+ receptions – 29/20 (365); Gavin Bartholemew anytime – 16/1 (CoraLadbrokes) – apparently a 37/1 at IvyBet who I should probably look into.
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