After a weekend of shocks we’re left with just one unbeaten team as the Chiefs and 49ers suffered defeats so it’s the Vikings sitting at the top of the pile on 6-0. They have the second fewest points scored (125) for any team since 1940 who has started 6-0 as they’ve been winning due almost entirely to their elite defense, a 16-10 win over the Colts kept their streak going. The 49ers lost to the Falcons while the Chiefs were beaten by the Seahawks stout defense.
The Dolphins also won a game so, as we all expected, the Chargers are the only team yet to win a game this year. I think I’ve said all I need about them over the last few years.
The first weekend in a month with no international game although the Bengals and Falcons will have that on their mind as they will be travelling to Spain in the week to play in Madrid next Sunday. We’ve got the Texans, Saints, Giants and 49ers on bye this week.
Vikings +3 @ Lions: 46.5 (5Action)
The first of two divisional games on terrestrial TV sees the unbeaten Vikings travel to Ford Field to take on the 4-2 Lions.
While I won’t say the Vikings don’t deserve their record they really need to get something from their anaemic offense and ultimately that’s probably going to fall on the head of Kyler Murray as the run game isn’t looking like it will get things done. In fairness to Kyler it was a new team, he took a big concussion in week 1 and it looks like he might now be settling into things in his new location. His mobility has long been the best thing about his game and until the last fortnight he hadn’t really been using his legs. If he can steal 1st downs on the floor then it’s a big boost for them.
Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson is a good trio of targets for him, but all we’ve really seen so far is him tippy-tapping his tiny little toes in the pocket and then lauching the ball skyward hoping that one of his WRs comes down with it, just a little more structure would be lovely.
The Vikings defense though has been outstanding as Brian Flores unleashing his vengeance on an NFL he feels has slighted him. They blitz considerably more than any other team in the league and against the hot garbage they’ve faced so far it’s worked very well.
Jared Goff and the Lions though happen to be pretty damn good against the blitz. Goff sits top 5 in completion rate when facing extra men, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions, so it might be a good match up for them. It helps having probably the best RB in the league in Jahmyr Gibbs and behind one of the better offensive lines. Gibbs has scored more TDs than 4 entire teams, including his opponent in this matchup.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is 5th in receptions, 9th in yards, 4th in rec. TDs this year and while I do think this might be a tough game for him, he’s got the talent to make catches no matter who he faces. It’s been Jameson Williams who’s been getting the scores in recent weeks though with two double-TD games in a row and 135 yards between those games. I said he goes in patches and that looks true this year. Isaac TeSlaa might pop up with a catch or two as WR3 and Sam LaPorta rounds off the passing game at TE. He’s scored in half their games so far.
By some way the best team the Vikings have faced this season, and one that it feels is a bad matchup for them, but it should be noted the Vikings won both meetings last season and Brian Flores is clearly pretty good at his job.
I’ve got to take the Lions winning and covering on this one though. Over on a low total. Kyler OVER 24.5 rushing yards.
Ravens +3 @ Bills: 54.5 (Sky)
The Ravens have lost two in a row with Lamar Jackson missing out, he returns to take on the current AFC favourites who come off their bye week refreshed.
It was a game of two halves for the Ravens last week, 13-0 up to losing 35-13 as they failed to score in the second half, but with Lamar Jackson finally declaring himself healthy enough to play things should be different here. Derrick Henry should be the main beneficiary of having a proper QB back there as he’s been terrible without his talisman next to him. Zay Flowers could get open in a phone box and will likely have a few big plays against a poor defense. Ja’Kobi Lane looks like he’ll be the WR2 with Rashod Bateman behind him.
It will be interesting to see if TE Josh Cuevas carries on popping up with catches with Jackson back at QB or whether it will be all back to Mark Andrews, might be worth his o1.5 regardless.
The Bills are probably the most fun team to watch so far this year as the defense can’t stop anyone and the offense seems to be able to get things done against everyone. Josh Allen is pretty far ahead in the MVP betting as he usually is in the regular season. 17 total TDs for him this year as he’s rushed in for a score in all bar one of their games this season. James Cook will get the TDs if Allen doesn’t but he’s a tough one to bet on as Allen is likely to get any 5-yard-and-inward touches.
DJ Moore has been in and out of the lineup so far but with the bye week to rest up you would hope he’ll be back as the WR1 for them, although the frustrating Keon Coleman has done well in his place when required. Khalil Shakir is usually good for 4 or 5 catches a game and Josh Palmer has been a useful deep threat for them. Dalton Kincaid has been a solid TE play but trusting anyone for a TD with Allen there is tough as he’ll either rush one in, or use a random backup like Knox or Ty Johnson.
Should be a fun one and a nice choice for the main Sky game for this evening. The Bills only seem to win by 3 so I’ve got to say the spread is bang on. Josh Cuevas o9.5 rec yards;
Browns +3.5 @ Steelers: 39.5 (Sky)
The top two teams in the AFC North at 5-2 play each other for the second time in the month with the Steelers looking to even the series after losing in Cleveland in Week 4.
The Browns defense has been the key to their run and that has meant that Deshaun Watson has just needed to keep turnovers low and rely on Quishon Judkins on the ground for them to get the job done. He’s only thrown 7 TDs this year, but has rushed well and scored his first TD of the season last weekend. Denzel Boston has been a nice deep shot for him and along wtih KC Concepcion it looks like them winning the draft might actually mean something for once. Harold Fannin has been down with Watson at QB but is a good option when required.
They now have Dylan Sampson back alongside Quishon Judkins so the run game becomes a little tougher for bettors. Sampson the more likely to be the pass-catching back but Judkins has put up good numbers there so far this year without him.
The Steelers offense seems to have opened up a little recently on the back of Jaylen Warren looking like one of the better backs in the league. He’s actually only scored 2 this season but has been really unlucky on that front and despite this game against a good run defense his TD luck will even out eventually. Rico Dowdle back alongside him gives them chance to spread the load and keep them fresher, he’s been a solid pass-catching option when available.
The passing game has improved in recent weeks with Rodgers looking arguably the best he has since joining the Steelers. DK Metcalf remains frustrating, 51 yards and 5 yards his two catches from 6 targets last week feels typical of him since becoming a Steeler. Germie Bernard looks like he’s got the ability but, again, is a tough one to bet on week-to-week.Darnell “Mount” Washington is tough to stop when he gets going at TE and has 3 TDs this year and Pat Friermuth gets targets at TE as well.
Two tough defense on show in what should be the stereotypical AFC North slobber-knocker. It’s a low total for a reason, tough to take the under but it could easily be won in field goals alone. If I was pushed I’d take the 3.5 on the underdog, but it’s not a betting option. Dylan Sampson o2.5 recptions – 10/11; Rico Dowdle o2.5 recs – 5/6
Cardinals +7 @ Cowboys: 54.5
The Cardinals started well but have fallen off a cliff, the Cowboys can’t be trusted in the slightest but with the Eagles downfall still have eyes on their division.
Jeremiah Love returns for the Cardinals which will likely help them. Trey McBride has 7+ receptions in every game this year and leads the whole league in receptions due to that and Michael Wilson will probably get 7 targets as well in a limited offense. Bam Knight has been fine without Love in the team but that’s probably over now.
Dak, Lamb, Pickens and now apparently Ryan Flournoy are the guys you need to look towards in the passing game. Probably worth the under on Jake Ferguson who doesn’t seem able to do anything productive even when given the chance (of course he’ll score twice now). Javonte Williams will get all the work on the ground and likely find the endzone.
I don’t think I can take o54.5 but it probably won’t be too far off it, and the lack of trust I have in the Cowboys means I’d lean to the Cardinals on the spread. Flournoy o3.5 receptions – 10/11 (4,3,7,4 over his last 4 games but he’s had at least 4 targets in each game this year)
Falcons +2.5 @ Bucs: 44.5
The Falcons beat the unbeaten 49ers last weekend while Baker Mayfield returned for the Bucs in their blowout win against the Panthers.
Michael Penix threw 3 TDs in that win last weekend and he generally gets the best out of his studs, which is great for fantasy players and bettors as you know London, Bijan and even Kyle Pitts will get touches and scores. Take your pick on TD scoring and receptions between those. Bijan o3.5 receptions is probably the one I’ll be looking at here.
Despite scoring 43 points, Baker Mayfield threw just 7 completions last weekend as they were able to ease him back into action after injury on the back of a dominant run game. Bucky Irving has looked great all year with Rachaad White out of the door and he’s a solid weekly play. Kenny Gainwell had his best game as a Bucc and Sean Tucker can mix in as well. Egbuka is out again in the passing game so Chris Godwin leads it and will likely get 4 for 40 yards. Ted Hurst has had chances and Cade Otton probably becomes important for them.
I think the wrong team are favoured here and I’d take the Falcons. Nothing on the total. Divisional games so things will be tough all round.
Colts +10 @ Jags: 46.5
The Colts aren’t a good team and are blowing things up before the trade deadline, they lost again last week while the Jags are back from their bye week looking to stay top of the South.
Jonathan Taylor is the only name to talk about and he might be out the door after this game. Seth McGowan has been annoyingly involved and will likely be the main man if JT gets traded. Josh Downs has reportedly requested a trade as he’s been horribly underused in a terrible offense. Who’d have thought a team with Keenan Allen and Laquon Treadwell as the top yard-getters wouldn’t be great.
The Jags do actually seem well-run on offense although the redzone struggles for them are a little concerning as they seem to fail from the goal line on half of their attempts. Trevor Lawrence has played well with Parker Washington as his main man, that guy is going to get PAID next year. Jakobi Meyers has been reliable when required and Brenton Strange has been good as their TE1. The run game has been fine with Tuten and C-Rod sharing the workload, I think Rodriguez should actually get more touches but he’ll probably be 30-40% still. It will be interesting to see what they do with Brian Thomas Jnr as they essentially dropped him and played Travis Hunter last game. Hunter o1.5 receptions could be a steal.
Despite all that, I just don’t think I can take the Jags winning by 10 or more. Again, a divisional game and they’re usually relatively tight despite the tumult in any organisation. You’ll not often get JT at evens (PP/Sky) , he’s scored in each of the games between these teams.
Raiders +1.5 @ Jets: 45.5
The Raiders have evened out after a remarkable start to their season, the Jets look like they’re lower-mid in the league this year.
Another fairly predictable offense here, Brock Bowers in the passing game, Ashton Jeanty on the ground should get most of the targets/touches, and Jeanty will likely get a few receptions as well, however I don’t think they’ll be having to put up 40 points in this one so it may well be more of the run game and a few chances for Mike Washington as well. Tre Tucker has big games but it rather unreliable.
Braelon Allen has run well for the Jets which has sparked Breece Hall trade rumours; it looks like Hall will be available in this one so that muddies the waters for them on the ground. Garrett Wilson has had a challenger to his receptions and rookie Omar Cooper has now scored in both games since his return from injury, it will be interesting to see how that all pans out, but for now I’ll ride the hot hand at decent odds. It does seem to have meant the death of Adonia Mitchell although that might be due to his finger injury.
Tough one to call on the main lines. I guess I’d pick the Jets if I was forced.
Titans +10 @ Bengals: 46.5
The terrible Titans got their first win last weekend while the Bengals offense showed up in the second half to keep them in the running in the North.
Tony Pollard had a career game (after I dropped him in fantasy…) 129 yards and 3 TDs as they beat the Browns, you’d think he’d get a lot of carries off the back of that again. Cam Ward isn’t very good and with Carnell Tate out of this game he loses his best target. Without Tate I guess it will be a lot of Wan’Dale Robinson, maybe Elic Ayomanor getting more targets and we might get a Chimere Dike sighting on offense. Gunnar Helm maybe a look at big odds to score.
The Bengals second half showed what they should do every game, but don’t seem to do. Chase Brown is under some pressure on the ground but will get most of the work still although Perine is a good backup for them. Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins are earning their big contracts with Higgins benefitting most in recent weeks as Chase tends to still get the better coverage. Mike Gesicki has been a useful redzone target as well and with All and Hudson both out he’s got less competition for snaps at TE now. WR3 is tough to predict with Tinsley and Meyers getting work there but few targets.
Obviously the Bengals should win, but again, I can’t ever take them to cover 10 points in a game. I do think they’ll rack up a lot of sacks this week and the weakest remaining schedule on paper looks good the them making the playoffs. Gunnar Helm o2.5 receptions.
—————————
Chiefs -1.5 @ Broncos: 40.5 (5)
The Chiefs lost for the first time last weekend while the Broncos have also won 5 games after a win last weekend.
The Chiefs welcome back Rashee Rice which will help an offense that didn’t reach the redzone last weekend. Kenneth Walker has done most of the work on that side of the ball and their reliance on him this year showed up last week as they were inept with him stopped. Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce have had most of the targets with Rice out and the young rookies Allen, Royals and Emmet Johnson have all been involved a little, so might be worth a look if they’re lined in single digits again.
The Broncos are without RJ Harvey who’s on IR so JK Dobbins and my boy Jonah Coleman will get all the work. Coleman will be the one I target for receiving lines. Bo Nix has been horribly unreliable so I can’t say anything for the passing game, Waddle and Sutton look a good duo on paper but they can’t be trusted at all.
This might be a horrible looking bet builder for me, Allen o4.5, Johnson o7.5 yards, Coleman o2.5 receptions works out around 5/1. Muggy as fuck. Nothing on the spread, have to lean under on the total.
Chargers +6.5 @ Rams: 45.5
Battle of the SoFi as the winless Chargers and the disappointing Rams face off in their home stadium.
The Chargers have had thier bye week to sort their shit out, will anything change? Probably not. Only they and the Vikings have fewer than 10 offensive TDs this season. The Vikes are unbeaten, the Chargers are winless. I doubt their OL will be any better, but the full week of rest for Ladd McConkey should mean he might actually be able to make it through a full game at least. You know what, they might surprise me here. Omarion Hampton technically leads on the ground and Vidal and Mitchell behind him will get touches as well.
Matthew Stafford has Puka Nakua and that’s all they really need at WR. He’ll get 10+ targets and the trio of TEs behind him will do the rest of it. Colby Parkinson led that position last weekend but Davis Allen got the TDs and Tyler Higbee has been effective for them there as well. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum mix up the carries (they were 16 and 17 and both scored last weekend) so it depends how things go as to who gets the touches there.
I guess I’m an idiot and I’ll take the Chargers on the spread, it just seems impossible that they will remain so terrible even if I have absolutely no faith in their QB.
Patriots -7 @ Dolphins: 43.5
The Pats lost last TNF and sit at 4-3 while the Dolphins come into this one as the team on a winning streak after beating the Jets last weekend.
They are once against with AJ Brown who misses another game and Treveyon Henderson is also out, so look to Rhamondre Stevenson getting the bulk of the carries and Corey Kiner who’s shown up when required for them late in games, he could be a good in-play bet if things get out of hand in this one. The passing game remains tough to judge but I would assume it would be Doubs getting most targets. They do like the TEs in the redzone though, 6’6″ Eli Raridon has been a useful target for them this year.
Ollie Gordon has run well for the Dolphins and Malik Willis used his legs more last weekend as he rushed for his second consecutive TD. Caleb Douglas scored their two passing TDs only just 2 completions to him. It’s not trustable on a weekly basis but Greg Dulcich had 5 of their 14 completions last weekend. I guess Ollie Gordon would be my bet on this offense if I was being forced to take one.
I don’t like trusting the Pats in the heat of Miami so if anything I think I’d have to lean to the Dolphins and unders. Drake Maye o1.5 passing TDs – 8/11; Kiner anytime 6/1 (CoraLadbrokes) – best of 3/1 everywhere else.
Eagles +6 @ Commanders: 40.5
A shambolic shit-show on the slate for SNF this weekend. The Eagles are looking to next year already, the Commanders come off their bye week looking to challenge in a poor NFC East.
Saquon Barkley returned, scored and then left the game last weekend. He’s officially playing here so we’ll see how he goes. Dameon Pierce is out, so we might see a few touches for Eli Mitchell here. With Devonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks out again it’s safe to say it’s limited in the passing game. Makai Lemon will get some work and Dallas Goedert should get to 5 catches again. Hollywood Brown the other beneficiary of the injuries.
The Commanders will have Rachaad White as the man on the ground again, although he only had 7 carries last weekend. Jayden Daniel rush yards might be the way to lean. It’s tough to pick someone in the passing game, but you’d think Stefon Diggs would lead them in targets. It was Chig Okonkwo at TE last time they played but the Eagles LB group are actually healthy. Having said that they’ll probably put Mitchell on Diggs so it’s going to be tough to move the ball through the air at all. Maybe Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown getting some random deep shots will be the calls tonight.
Commanders should win a low-scoring affair.
Bears +3 @ Seahawks 46.5
A nice-looking MNF to finish the weekend as the 5-2 Bears travel to the 4-3 Seahawks.
I don’t think I can say much here that’s not known. Monangai misses out again so it’s D’Andre Swift getting pretty much all the ground stuff. Caleb Williams has been good since his mild (potentially life-threatening) hamstring strain and they’ve got good options in the passing game with Burden, Odunze and Loveland. Burden had 4 for 130 and a TD at half time last week, and that’s how he finished the game. They have some good options on offense.
The Seahawks should have Charbonnet back for this one, but that just makes things complicated for us with him and Wilson on the ground and their rookie coming back in the next few weeks. I would imagine this week will be more Wilson as they try and ease Charbs back in, but who knows. JSN is the passing game and seems utterly unstoppable. Behind him isn’t really worth talking about. AJ Barner and Cooper Kupp at least provide a mild distraction for opponents who should just put 3 men around JSN and forget about marking anyone else.
New signings on both sides make both teams stronger with Jeffrey Simmons coming on for the Bears DL facing Quinton Nelson on the Seahawks OL.
This will be an interesting game for the NFC. I think I’d go for the Bears but this Seahawks defense is deadly and will cause issues. If Darnold keeps things safe they may well get it done but he’s been throwing INTs all year so that might be their downfall.
Trebles
Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Warren and Zay Flowers – 8.66/1 (PaddyPower)
Big Price Trixie – Gunnar Helm, Josh Cuevas, Corey Kiner – 538/1 (Coral/Ladrokes)
Leave a Reply