MNF – Week 9 – Bills at Seahawks – @touchdowntips

Well, another successful night for us last night, finished a lovely 47 points up on the day, won’t take a genius to work out that if that was £5 per point then you’d of been £235 up from one night following my tips! A fair chunk of this was from Paddypower mis-pricing Latavius Murray anytime at 5/1, something that I flagged up on twitter @TouchdownTips on there, so i’m hoping that at least a few people got on, (must remember to back 2 or more next time I see something like that) even if you’d taken the ~6/4 that was on offer elsewhere you’d have still been 33 points up. If I see anything like that on a Friday/Saturday i’ll always post it on twitter, they usually get corrected by the Sunday, so follow me on there, and make sure you turn on notifications on my profile, it may well net you some easy money! Other than that big one, we had Beckham anytime, and 2 or more, DeMarco Murray anytime, Moncrief anytime, Tim Hightower anytime, Handicap wins for the Giants, a handicap treble with the Lions, Panthers and Saints which returned around 3/1 thanks to the Panthers not being able to put their match to bed. I had the Saints as my best bet of the day, that landed easily, and paired it with Moncrief anytime to net a nice little 4/1 there as well. So all in all, not a bad night at all…

Oh, and Jay’s write ups were pretty much on the money as well, he called all but 2, one he did get wrong with Pittsburgh, but I don’t think anyone realised how awful Ben Roethlisberger was going to be, love seeing the Steelers fail, things like this Attempted Rabona onside kick make it all the funnier. Annoyingly it makes the Bengals failure to win in London last week even more painful though

So on to tonight’s match… The 4-4 Bills travel all the way over to the North west to take on the 4-2-1 Seahawks. – I’ll be honest, points wise, and scoring wise, there’s really not that much to get excited about here. The Bills welcome back LeSean ‘shady’ McCoy into their running game, which is a welcome return for them, although Mike Gillislee had done pretty well stepping in for him, and may well still be involved as a change of pace guy, also have to note that Reggie Bush is still going and stole a TD from Gillislee against Miami a couple of weeks ago. But they go up against one of the best defences in the league (apparently only 6th in the league), especially against the run, so it will be hard work for them. But they don’t have that much going on in the passing game, so will likely have to try and force McCoy in. He has the talent and is having a fantastic year, so he may well still get his rewards. Their main options in the air are Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, Marquise Goodwin and Charles Clay at tight end, none of these exactly inspire me to bet on them, so i’ll be avoiding all of them. This should of been a matchup of two of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league, as Tyrod Taylor has proved himself time and again this year to be a threat on his feet, he was their second highest rusher last week and will likely have to do more of the same this week. He never passes for much, but keeps the games tight with his ability to move out of the pocket.

Russell Wilson is the Seahawks QB who should of matched up to Tyrod in the running game, and in terms of mobility, however he’s been carrying a few knocks all season long which have seemingly taken away this option for him, and stuck having to throw from the pocket, he’s really struggled. Another injury to his throwing arm doesn’t exactly help matters. However, it seems that head coach Pete Carroll is hopefully his health has finally turned a corner and he’s on his way back to full fitness, it doesn’t help that their offensive line is frankly abysmal, and a key to the game will be how they cope against a Bills team who have recorded the joint most sacks in the league. Wilson hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass for a month, much to the detriment of Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham who will be the main beneficiaries if Wilson does jump back to form tonight. Baldwin bagged 13 TDs last year, the vast majority of them coming in the second half of the season, and i’m hoping they will follow suit this year as well. Graham seems to have found himself again after a rough couple of years, and was linking well with Wilson when he was throwing the ball. Tyler Lockett seems to be nearly back to full fitness, and he and Jermaine Kearse should add to the passing game as well. At running back Christine Michael has done well all season, scoring 6 TDs, and he’ll be their main back tonight. CJ Prosise is definitely one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks, he’s back fit again and they’ll look to mix him into the game, he finished with over 100 combined yards last week, 3rd choice here is another rookie, Alex Collins who’s got himself a TD for the season and if they can’t establish the passing game, may get a goal line carry.

In all likelihood this will be a tight, low scoring affair, after a weekend that’s seen some ridiculously high scoring matches this match should bring down the average points for the weekend. I’m just not sure I can recommend going for under 44 points. I think the Bills have a good chance to beat the spread tonight too, they’re currently around 7 point underdogs, if the Seahawks offensive woes continue it will stay a close match.

I’m sticking to small stakes for tonight as there’s nothing jumping out at me, 2 points on each. I don’t usually go for 1st TD scorer, but will give it a go, with a twist, and go for the double chance, one from each team, Michael or McCoy

  • CJ Prosise anytime – 4/1 (PP)
  • Prosise combined yards – o45.5 – 5/6 (365)
  • Christine Michael or LeSean McCoy first TD scorer – 9/2 (Skybet)

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