MNF – Week 14 – #GoPats @ #FinsUp

Ironically a quiet weekend on the betting front for me provided the best profit we’ve had all season with Trey Burton scoring anytime which was recommended at 11/1, frustratingly I didn’t back him to score 2+ which was a ridiculous 500/1 on PP and landed! We also had the unders in the Bills snow-game in Buffalo which was very easy. Unfortunately the longest field goal bet I tipped up was a push as there wasn’t a bloody field goal in the game. I assumed that meant we had won, but in fairness the wording does suggest that it needs at least one scored. And we lost on Stephen Anderson anytime for the Texans, but the value was there getting him at 5/1 when he was 6/5 in other places.

New England (-10.5) at Miami – o/u – 48.5

Not really a whole much analyses to do on this game in all honesty. One team is the best in the league, the other is statistically one of the worst.

The Patriots haven’t conceded more than 17 points since week 3 and I don’t see that changing this week, although Miami did get to that mark in New England a few weeks back. They will be without Gronk this week as he’s serving a suspension for a disgusting body slam on the back of a defenceless player which should have earned him more than 1 game, but they play the Steelers next week and the league didn’t want to mess that game up by keeping one of the best players out of it, but anyway, that won’t slow them down. Expect the Lewis/Burkhead combination to carry on doing the business and without Gronk, Danny Amendola should have himself a game as well – speaking of which, his line is set a price that I’m willing to take on, o44.5 receiving yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts. Ironically, given the perceived importance of Gronk for this team, I’m sure I heard that they have a better record without him over the past few years, but I can’t actually find that anywhere tonight. A word of warning for Lewis, he has struggled through the week with an illness but was cleared for practise over the weekend and is expected to play. I do like the look of Brandin Cooks longest pass received to be o29.5 – 4/5 (bet365) – 2pts – He is their downfield threat and he is going up against one of the worst pass defences in the league so should be able to get himself free easily, last game vs the Dolphins a fortnight ago his longest was 37 and he got a TD as well. And the last guy to mention for the Patriots is one you may not have heard much of, Jacob Hollister. He’s the 3rd tight end usually, but with Gronk out, and Allen primarily a blocker, Hollister could get some work near the goal line although his season stats may suggest otherwise! He’s obviously going to be a bit of a longshot and is priced accordingly at 7/1 (WillHill) – 1pt

MATS5382.JPGFor the Dolphins? Well Kenyan Drake is super-athletic and has a few big chunk plays for TDs, with Damien Williams out he’s the main guy there. Other than that, who really cares, I guess Kenny Stills deserves a mention as he seems to have become the no.2 target after Landry in place of Devante Parker who has barely received a look in recent weeks. I was actually tempted to go for the unders on his yards at PP as they’re set a fair amount higher than elsewhere (43.5), but he does pose a decent downfield threat and could take just one reception to get his line so it’s not worth the risk for me. I can analyse and try and predict whatever I want from the Miami point of view and it’s all a bit irrelevant as I’m not going to be backing anything on their side of the ball.

I expect the Patriots to win, and they will probably cover the spread as it’s what they do, I’d also lean towards the Unders as I don’t see the Dolphins putting up more than 14/17 points, although if the Pats are in the mood they could get 30+ by themselves.

So, all on Patriots tonight –

  • Danny Amendola o44.5 receiving yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pt
  • Brandin Cooks longest reception o29.5 – 4/5 (365) – 2pt
  • Jacob Hollister anytime TD – 7/1 (WillHill) – 1pt

5 pts outlay.

As always Skybet have their 3 for 2 offer on which I may well partake in as well, but as of yet I haven’t had a look at them.

Good Luck if you’re on anything tonight.

Adam.

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