This strange NFL season continued to roll on last night with more upsets and unexpected performances. Two star QB’s that were on the receiving end of one of those upsets reacted in very different ways to their “shitty” performances. Aaron Rodgers continued to blame his teammates and claimed he never gave up but Josh Allen actually took some accountability and if you had to choose a teammate out of the two it’s a no brainer, despite what Aaron may think of himself.
Ravens -1.5 @ Saints: 47.0
This weeks Monday game is between two of the most injured teams in the NFL in the Ravens and Saints. They each had a star wide receiver ruled out for the season during last week with Rashod Bateman and Michael Thomas both requiring surgery. The Ravens will also be without Gus Edwards and Mark Andrews tonight with Marshon Lattimore and potentially Jarvis Landry among the names missing for the Saints.
The Ravens won back-to-back games for the first time this season last week with their win in Tampa Bay. But they will be rolling out a much changed offense this week as they are missing their number one running back, wide receiver and tight end.
Fortunately, Lamar Jackson is still there and they are likely going to be relying on him as much as ever. He is averaging 204 passing yards and 69 rushing yards per game this year so far. I am taking the over on his rushing line of 60.5 and would lean the under on 208.5 passing yards.
With no Bateman or Andrews, Devin Duvernay and Isaiah Likely figure to be the main guys in the passing game. They both have lines in the low 40’s and while I could be tempted by the over for Duvernay I will probably steer clear of the whole passing game as it’s going to be hard to predict.
Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill are the last men standing in the Ravens RB room and while Drake will probably handle most of the carries, the likelihood is Lamar leads the team in rushing. Over his last three games Drake has averaged 11.9, 0.45 and 8.86 yards per carry and is the definition of unreliable – probably the reason he is on his fourth team in five years.
After just one win in six, the Saints shut out the Raiders last week with Alvin Kamara finally finding the end zone for all three of their touchdowns.
In four games with Andy Dalton as the QB, Kamara is averaging seven receptions and 67 receiving yards per game. So I think I am taking the over on his 38.5 receiving yards line tonight and I also like his anytime touchdown odds being above evens (6/5 with Bet365). As a bet builder that’s 13/5.
Rookie Chris Olave is the other standout performer for this Saints offense and is averaging over 20 yards per game more than any other rookie wide receiver at 78.1. I am leaving the over on his 61.5 yard line tonight.
This is a tough game to call and I am hesitant to take the Ravens without all those pass catchers but that is the way I am leaning. With all the missing pieces on offense the under on the total of 47 is probably the way to go.
I like the look of either Kamara or Lamar to score first touchdown at 10/3 with Paddy Power.