A little over a week left in the NFL season, so I’m trying to get my “portfolio” together with a few bets nice and early. There’s already a TON of props up both on the game itself, and the pre and post-game activities.
The stupid punts article is one of my favourite of the year to write, always worth a read and keeping an eye on twitter is the key to beating the bookies on a lot of markets. Things like the Gatorade shower are already priced up, Orange the favourite as it was the colour that Reid had thrown on him last year when the Chiefs won. Coin toss and National Anthem length is already up (it’s a country fella this year…), and more will come up as the week progresses.
As for the Weeknd doing the half-time show… I’ll get into that when I do it properly.
First things first, sort your Half-time food out! I’ve ordered my LoveBundle from Passyunk already, 2 cheesesteaks and wings on their way on Thursday to be ready for Sunday night, can’t wait!
Click on the image below and use LOCKDOWNLOVE for 10% off anything in their store!
Early look in
It’s a little tougher this year as Brady is here. The first quarter of Superbowls are generally low-scoring, but a lot involved the Brady Patriots, so was that because of Brady, or the team? – Last year the Chiefs vs 49ers, there were 10 points in the first quarter, the Patriots had only scored once in all the first quarters they were involved in, they’re generally low scoring, so a line of 5/6 for under 10.5 points seems like it would be sensible.
For the record in the post-season the Bucs have had 9,7 and 6 points in their first-quarters, the Chiefs – 9 and 9 in their two games, so… the under 10.5 (Redzone) at 5/6 or under 10 at 11/10 (Hills) if you’re a little riskier, does seem the right move with history and stats.
Another one that’s usually good for the Superbowl is taking the shortest TD under 1.5 yards – things like DPI in the endzone means you’re at the 1 and usually a rushing TD from there… I’m not entirely sure about that one this year the Chiefs run game isn’t great and going against the best rush D, while the Bucs have Fournette and Brady sneaks. There will be a lot of passing, so probably a half-decent chance of getting a DPI at least. At close to 1/2 I don’t think I’ll be backing this one, though Mahomes rushed in from the one at the end of the first quarter last year, 1 of 3 1-yard rushes… ARGGH. Seems best price on this is 8/11 (1.72 at 365) – Went off at 1.66 last year
Looking at my post from last year, it seems there’s usually around 11 penalties in a Superbowl, last year there were 9, so that will bring the average down a little, on William Hill the line is 10.5, both sides at 10/11, but on 365 you can get EVENS on the under, I have to lean to the under, but this won’t be a bet for me personally.
Longest field goal? Weirdly Buttker for the Chiefs has missed a ton of extra points but not a whole lot of field goals this season, nearly 93% (25/27) on FG, just under 89% on XPs (48/54) – 9/4 for there to be a missed XP (Both kickers have missed one in the post-season this year)… Longest field goal scored is at 47.5 – Buttker stats for the year… He’s scored 5-5 from 50+, other than those he’s score 1 more over 47.5 yards. Ryan Succop on the other side of things is 1-2 from 50+ and only has two scored over that line. It’s the Superbowl, these are two teams who move the ball well, they’ll want to score points and not rely on field goals, I’d have to take the under. Succop is 90% (28/31) on FG and 91% on XPs (52/57) – I’ve got to say under 47.5 at 5/6 on Bet365 (it’s 46.5 on WillHill) on this one
Interesting one on William Hill – team to have most rushing yards,
the Bucs are getting 10.5 yards, so Bucs +10.5, Chiefs -10.5 both at 10/11 on there. It was Bucs +10.5, now no handicap on it, so SU on who has the most rushing yards, both side at 10/11 on William Hill, the Bucs are 20/27 on Redzone with the Chiefs 21/20.. the Bucs have the best run defense in the league, the Chiefs were down at 31st according to DVOA during the regular season. In the playoffs the Chiefs rushed for 114 and 123 while allowing 129 and 112 against the Bills and Browns respectively – 237-241 overall. While the Bucs were 76, 127 and 142, allowing 67, 104 and 86 against the Packers, Saints and Washington 345-257 overall… The Chiefs should have Clyde healthier and Darrel Williams has been running well, will Mahomes be good to rush? – The Bucs should have Ronald Jones healthier and better, and playoff Lenny will do it, Brady won’t rush much of course. – I guess the worry is game-script, Chiefs get ahead and the run-game goes away for the Bucs? Can’t think of any other reason they’d be getting the yards.
Even just looking at the rush props for the game, the Chiefs are CEH 26.5, Williams 32.5 and Mahomes 18.5 – total of 77 while the Bucs players are Fournette at 47.5 and Ronald Jones at 35.5 – 83 total. I think this line is wrong on William Hill still, despite the extra yards going. Interestingly in the states it opened the Chiefs +14.5 and now down to 12.5, so straight up is probably still value on the Bucs.
“Player with a passing attempt” is always a good one to look at when it comes to emptying the playbook and trying something tricky in a big game. It’s always set at 2.5, and this year the Over is at 6/4. Always a tempter. Last year in the Chiefs vs 49ers Superbowl it was only the two QBs who threw a pass, but the regular season game between these two saw Travis Kelce throw a pass. Obviously o2.5 passers is the underdog for a reason, Brady is a few years older than the “Philly special” attempt the Pats tried, but Arians is a gambler and I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see someone else attempt a pass. – Again, not a bet for me personally, but an interesting one. Not exactly the smoothest looking action ever.
One that I’ve been looking for in Chiefs games for the last few weeks has been the total point in the highest scoring quarter, but until the biggest game of them all it’s not been priced up, well not as far as I’ve seen anyway. This game though William Hill have priced it bang on where it should be at 21.5, so o/u 3 TDs in a single quarter. Over 21.5 points is at 13/10 (2.30) obviously the Chiefs are capable of racking up points on points in a short period of time, but it still probably revolves around a defensive score to get to the over. No bet for me.
At shorter odds you’ve got Mahomes first pass complete or incomplete at 10/21 and 7/4 respectively and Brady at 1/2 and 17/10 – Unsurprisingly I’ll say complete for both, scripted plays for both teams will be smooth and it tends to be a nice easy pass to get the QB and pass catcher going. (most of these are from the “other” section on WillHill, Redzone have this as well though.
First play of the game to be a run or pass – run is at 4/5, pass/sack at 21/20 (On WillHill, 8/11 and 1/1 on Sky and 365) – I’d imagine it’ll be Fournette running into the middle of the line if it’s the Bucs, not sure on the Chiefs, they know passing is their strength.
How many Chiefs players will have a rushing attempt? Mahomes, Clyde and Darrel Williams will all get an attempt, that’s practically guaranteed, then you’ve got the like of Hill and Hardman on jet sweeps, and possibly Lev Bell? The line on 365 is at 4.5 players. 5/6 on either side of it. I’m tempted with the over on Chiefs players.
Conversely I don’t mind going under 8.5 players to have a rush attempt in total at 4/5 on Redzone (over is 21/20) – You’ve got 4 possibly 5 on the Chiefs side but the Bucs side seems a little more simple, Lenny, Rojo and Brady (remember that kneels count as a rush attempt) – They might get McCoy or Vaughn a touch but I don’t think it’s too likely, maybe and AB jet sweep/end-around. I think they probably have 3.
There will of course be a few more posts from me as the week progresses and a full game preview probably on Saturday, I’ve booked Thursday and Friday off work to concentrate on the important stuff this year, so keep an eye on twitter, on the telegram group and on the site itself.
6 days left! WOOOOOOOO