It’s that time of the year where I finally look to get my eye back in and get ready for the coming season. Other than yet another profit-filled Draft night which once again proved to be a very decent night I’ve been largely away from NFL content other than on Twitter which is as always a very useful place to keep up to date with affairs.
So after a lovely long break it’s time to get going again. The fantasy league post is up and running, we had 50-odd people respond and get involved last season which was great. I was terrible as always.
I have my Fantasy football league applications up and running, so make sure to get involved if it’s something you enjoy.
As someone who doesn’t bet huge amounts, ante-post betting is a bit of a struggle for me. Is it really worth tying up money for 9 months or so for a 5/6 winner? For me, and the amounts I bet I might have one or two big bets to keep things ticking over and provide some cash for the post-season but in general I will look to parlay a few things to make things a little tastier. – Now a win is a win, but I could probably make the money in a weekend rather than leaving it months and months.
Annoyingly there hasn’t been anywhere I’ve seen this year which have allowed you to parlay Win totals (last year 888 allowed it for a few days but they’ve not been as stupid this year) so the only way around that is to get on to the bookies and request the teams you want included in your bet. Annoying and time consuming, but it is what it is, they don’t want related markets being acca’d.
Now the issue here is whether you consider things value or not. For example, “Patrick Mahomes Regular Season MVP & Jamin Davis Defensive Rookie of the Year @ 80/1” – Would be 81/1 on 365 IF you were allowed to combine those lines. – So at 80s on Skybet it’s equal value… But there are some which are miles off. Do you take the poorer relative value for the ability to actually get that bet on?
I do actually quite like that one above – Mahomes MVP and Davis DROY @
80/1 66/1 – We all know about Paddy, he’s the best player in the league and the Chiefs having strengthened their OL look strong again, while Jamin Davis was drafted by the Washington Football Team to add to their already incredibly good defense which puts him in a great position to put up numbers and work on a top 5 defense.
Fair enough it’s 150/1 on this next one, but DON’T BET ON THINGS LIKE THIS. 9 Players to have VERY good, HEALTHY seasons? It’s just throwing money away. (C.Lamb, C.Claypool, A.J.Brown, J.Landry, J.Chase, S.Diggs, J.Jefferson, D.Adams, M.Evans 1000+ Rec Yds & 7+ TDs Each)
I did like anything involving Dak Prescott having the most passing yards in the league, but for now after an injury scare, coming off a season-ending injury last year, I’m holding off. There’s a 125/1 on Dak most passing yards, Chiefs win AFC, Texans 1st pick and Henry most rushing yards. – I think the Chiefs are a tier above anyone else in the AFC still, the Texans I have at 2 wins, Max. even if Watson does play and you’d think Henry would have a similar role to last year even with Julio there. – It would work out at 294/1 – So is it worth getting on at less than half what the odds should be? I think I’m leaving it for now.
Just one in the top section on Skybet.
Not a good selection on there in my opinion, one bet has all 4 NFC West teams winning at least 9 games, nah.
Only one that tempts me is currently at the bottom of that pile, but it’s relying on a few players doing stuff and I’ve just slated that above, thing is, that “stuff” in this one is 6 TDs, that’s not THAT significant a number. Williams should get more Redzone with Hunter Henry gone, Tre’quan Smith is pretty much the WR1 there for 7 weeks with Michael Thomas out, Robby Anderson should get 6, Russell Gage is now WR2 in Atlanta and they’re going to be behind and passing a lot, while Elijah Moore is the obvious very big worry here in NY, rookie QB and many WRs.
Probably not a bet, but of all the selections in that section it’s my personal fave – Mike Williams, Tre’quan Smith, Robby Anderson, Russell Gage & Elijah Moore 6+TDs Each @ 66/1
Not a whole lot here that’s not too many options for me to take on, I’m high on the Panthers this year, I think their division is falling apart around them (well, Falcons and Saints) so 11/1 on To Make The Playoffs: Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers, LA Chargers is tempting for me. I think the Browns either win or second in the AFC North with a decent amount of wins, and I like the Chargers to finish the second with 10+ wins in the West.
10/1 and below
As someone who writes on his own website, I feel I can help people with betting options… Don’t bet on Cam Akers having the most rushing TDs this season… I assume that was on there before the injury.
Reg Season Wins: Browns & Ravens 11+, Steelers Under 8.5, Raiders Under 7.5, Texans Under 4.5 @ 10/1 – Not much more to say here other than it fits what I think will happen. I think the Browns and Ravens battle it out for the North, the Steelers finish 3rd on 8 wins, the Raiders I don’t like at all, and the Texans I have as the 1st pick for next years draft.
Browns, Bills, Rams @ 11/8 and Browns, Bills, Colts @ 6/4 two bets of them to make the playoffs, I like both of them.
Ja’Marr Chase 10+ TDs, DeVonta Smith & Kyle Pitts 5+ TDs Each, Najee Harris 1000+ Rush Yds @ 16/1 – I thought that looked all right, I can easily see all of them happening, but the odds they’re posting on the individual markets, brings the 4-fold to 36/1 or so, not 16/1… Again, losing a ton of value to have the ability to bet on the 4-fold.
Denver; Javonte Williams 1000+ Rushing Yds & 10+ TDs in the Regular Season – 6/1 – Cecil Lammey, Denver beat reporter is a man I trust on twitter, and he is very high on Javonte, if he’s the main role in that team then he’ll get close to this.
I also think Drew Lock starts week 1 @ 5/4 – They currently have Lock and Bridgewater at 5/4 – It is going to be one of them, so you could bet both for profit, but it would need a decent amount. It’s priced up with plus money on both as there were rumours of Rodgers going there, that’s dead in the water now
Chase Young 4+ Sacks, William Jackson III 4+ Interceptions, Ryan Fitzpatrick 4+ Rush TDs @ 50/1 – I know I shouldn’t but I like this one. Chase Young will get 4, Fitz should get 4 rush TDs, so while I don’t think WJ3 get’s 4 INTs, it’s a loaded defense, one that will pressure the QB and cause errors, the way I see it, it’s 50/1 for 4 WJ3 INTs.
Divisonal previews, top passing/rushing/receiving and TD markets will be looked at in the coming weeks as I get myself back into shape on the NFL front.
Hopefully the season will take place without any disruption and we won’t have to wait for Covid news every week!
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