Week 3 of the NFL arrives with just 7 teams undeafeted! While at the other end of things the Chargers headline the teams that not many thought would be winless at this early stage in the season. Since 2020 77% of teams who started 2-0 made the playoffs so things are looking up for the Bengals, Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, 49ers and *checks notes* Vikings and Raiders. While at the other end 90% of the teams (45/50) in that period missed the playoffs.
There have been a TON of injuries this early in the season, the update on QBs are as follows; Caleb Williams looks like he’s avoided serious injury but with Tyson Bagent in concussion protocol it seems like Case Keenum might be starting for the Bears on Monday. Daniel Jones sounds like he could be done for the season with the knee injury he suffered against the Chiefs on Monday. Kyler Murray could return, but with the Vikings 2-0 under Wentz, will they go straight back to him? Sam Darnold will return for the Seahawks.
Jayden Daniels looks like he’ll be out for an extended amount of time, including the London game next week after he (presumably) dislocated his non-throwing arm elbow last week. Talking of that London game; Commanders v Colts – There are still a lot of tickets available and it sounds like you might be able to get some higher category tickets for cheap as they try and fill the stadium.
The marketing of the London games hasn’t been smooth for a few years now and it looks like it’s finally reached tipping point on how much people are willing to pay to watch bad teams play NFL football in the UK. The Jags and Eagles has sold well as you’d expect, but the Commies and Colts just aren’t a draw for the neutral. It will be interesting to see if the NFL does anything about it next year but I would assume they’ll just raise the price again and start panicking when it’s a week or two before.
I wasn’t actually planning on attending the London games at all this year, but a friend is a Commanders fan so we got tickets when they were first released. £130 for tickets that were around £100 just a year or two ago. Note to self; Don’t queue on opening day if it’s a shit game, just wait until later when BOGOF offers come around and save a few quid.
Anyway, on to this weekend!
Patriots +3 @ Jaguars: 46.5 (5Action)
Both teams at 1-1 with the Pats beating the Steelers last week while the Jags lost at Mile High to the Broncos. Both expected results, I think the main thing for me here is that there should be points and the line looks a bit high.
Drake Maye has 1 TD, 4 INTs as his indifferent start to the season continued against the Steelers, I will caveat his numbers so far by saying he’s faced two of the better defenses in the league and he didn’t NEED to do anything about the Steelers last weekend. Just 22 passing attempts as they controlled the game throughout. Can he step up against a slightly lower defense? I’m not convinced but this should be the easiest of their early season run.
Rhamo and Treveyon complemented each other well last weekend, it was a breakaway TD from Trev that got things kicked off and from there it was a bit of a cakewalk for them, safe in the knowledge that they just weren’t going to concede any points. They’d have hoped that the offense did a bit more than it did but the defense stepped up and got it sorted out. It was nice for Romeo Doubs to actually catch a pass, he finished with 96 from 3 in the end with a long of 63 yards when Drake Maye hauled it downfield to him.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags have had contrasting games. One was dead by halftime against the Browns and a struggle against the Broncos last weekend where they just couldn’t get things finished off. Like Maye he was 0-1 TDs:INTs. The offense is varied and well coached so I think they’ll get things sorted out back home in Jacksonville.
Parker Washington looks like they’re WR1 now with Brian Thomas and Jakobi Meyers much further behind him, the issues of last year seem to have carried on for BTJ though, catching just 3 of his 8 targets and he’ll likely get Christian Gonzalez opposite him here which is a big negative for him. Brenton Strange is a fair TE and the RB duo of Tuten and C Rodriguez is fine as well without anything elite-looking there. Tuten again got about 1/2 the total carries.
Tough one to call as I just don’t think the Pats are all that, I’ll take the Jags covering now they’re home and over on a relatively low total. Stevenson o35.5 rush yards
Chargers +7.5 @ Bills: 50.5 (Sky)
Talk about being desperate to take a victory lap and knowing you shouldn’t… The Chargers are 0-2 after losing the 2 easiest-looking games on their schedule. The Bills are in their fantastic regular-season form sitting now at 2-0.
I can only assume the moon was in retrograde, or the sun was in the eyes of the Chargers QB last week as there is undoubtedly a reason that the offense just doesn’t work with him in control of it. They’ve got a run-first coach and the worst EPA in the league on rushing and a QB who just doesn’t seem to be able to work the offense that a supposed genius OC is putting out there. It’s a mess and on paper it all seems quite unbelievable. 1 TD, 2 INTs last weekend, a 15.7 QBR. It wasn’t pretty. Maybe the Cardinals and Raiders are both actually quite good?
Ladd McConkey was in and out of the lineup last week and they don’t seem to have anything behind him. Tre’ Harris 1 catch, Quinten Johnston, 1, David Njoku and Charlie Kolar are both now on IR, so Oronde Gadsden might be one to look at for props. Omarion Hampton though is a decent running back and Keaton Mitchell probably deserves more attempts. Hampton had 23 for 94 yards and a TD last week… I think at the end of the day they want to be run heavy. This week they probably won’t have that choice so maybe it will be a good Herbert week?!
The Bills have had extra time off since their TNF win over the Lions. Josh Allen once again looked great and got the job done without too much fuss. Another 2 rushing TDs for him and 3 passing TDs taking him to 5 already for the season. He looks unstoppable. The run game was good again with James Cook putting up 135 yards and a score.
Dalton Kincaid is healthy and looks the favourite target of Allen at this early point in the season he backed up his 130 yards in week one with 95 last time out. DJ Moore left the game so Keon Coleman had to step up and he had 63 yards while catching all 6 of his targets, rare efficiency from him. Josh Palmer caught a deep one again while Khalil Shakir had 6 targets again as well but hasn’t started the season well. Moore and Coleman are officially game-time desicions, I assume both play.
The Bills have put up 77 points in two games, the Chargers NEED a win here. I think I’ve got to go over again. I’m not touching the spread. I think the Bills win comfortably and I think I’m right in Herbert not having “it” but I just keep expecting to be proven wrong on that front. Keaton Mitchell o14.5 rush yards.
My favourite market at the moment is the First Drive yardage market at the bottom of the Bet Builder market on PaddyPower. Hampton 10+ Rush, Allen 5+ Rush and Kincaid 5+ Rec yards is 22/1
Panthers -2.5 @ Browns: 42.5
The Panthers keep putting up points, and strolled past the Falcons this week, meanwhile the Browns won against the Bucs in Tampa as Deshaun Watson showed he might be settling back into this football thing.
Bryce Young is 2nd in yards, 1st in TDs and 6th in QBR at this early point in the season have thrown 3 TDs in each game so far. He has been blessed with some short fields but he’s getting the job done out there with Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker looking like a very functional 1-2 duo and even Xavier Legette doing a little. Darren Waller found the endzone twice this week after having one brought back in week one, I doubt we’re getting 9/2 for his this weekend and Chuba Hubbard scored again. With Jonathon Brooks unexpectedly injured (seriously, who could have predicted that…) he’ll get all the work.
Watson was 24/30 for 238 yards and 2 TDs, no interceptions this week. Rumours were he had to have a good game or he was getting ditched and he did pretty well. Denzel Boston found the endzone once more and had a 55 yarder as part of his 95 total yards. Fannin and KC Concepcion had 11 catches between them, and Quishon Judkins was involved through the air as well, which is good for him as 12 from 21 attempts is dismal.
Panthers are rightly the favourites and while I don’t see them carrying on this type of scoring, it definitely makes them more fun to watch. Oh god, overs again?! Got to take the 4/1 (Ladbrokes) for Darren Waller anytime.
Bengals -3.5 @ Steelers: 42.5 (Sky)
The Bengals sit top of the AFC North at 2-0 while the Steelers really should be looking to be as bad as possible this year to rebuild, sit 1-1 after stumbling past Cooper Rush and losing to the Pats last week.
It’s been defense first for the Bengals as they’ve not yet allowed a passing TD this season in beating a Bucs team who lost to the Browns and a Texans team with no WRs. Don’t get me wrong the defense has looked fantastic and has allowed the offense to not have to do much but they’ve not really beaten anyone and this game won’t convince me either.
Ja’marr Chase stepped up with the catch of the year last week as part of his two TDs, he’ll probably have the joy of facing Jalen Ramsey so it’s probably a Tee Higgins game in my eyes. They’re without Yoshi for a month and fans will be happy with the chance to see more Dohnte Meyers and Colbie Young, I’d imagine in that order. Erick All had a few receptions last week with Mike Gesicki goose egg-ing. Chase Brown has started the season on fire and there’s no reason that shouldn’t carry on with the Bengals defense once again looking to show up.
Aaron Rodgers looks older by the week, he had no Michael Pittman last week and DK Metcalf just doesn’t seem to work in this team. Jaylen Warren probably gets 90% of the rushing now with Rico Dowdle ruled out, it could be rookie Heidenrich getting a few touches as the RB2. Germie Bernard probably deserves a word after 4 receptions from 8 targets last weekend. This week though, I think the Steelers will attack the linebackers and target the TE’s a lot, so I think it’ll be Muth and probably Washington who I feel has had big games against the Bengals.
The Bengals should be winning this and covering the spread, but it’s the Steelers. I won’t say that’ll happen. I am a Bengals fan, so I think I’m suggesting this one to cover any potential pain… Darnell Washington anytime 15/2 (365) – o1.5 receptions for him – 4/5 (Boyle)
Texans -1.5 @ Colts: 42.5
An AFC South clash with both teams looking for their first win with the Texans losing to the Bills and Bengals, the Colts to the Ravens and Chiefs. So… it looks bad, but they’re 4 teams who should be in the playoffs come January.
The Texans look like they’ll be without Nico Collins again which seriously harms their offense. It’s not good having Xavier Hutchinson as the WR1 with Boutte behind him. Jaylin Noel is the deeper threat but he only caught 1 of 5 targets last weekend. It should be another big dose of Dalton Schultz who finished with 12 catches for 140 last weekend, although a lot of that was in garbage time.
David Montgomery will have an easier time against this defense than he did with his 6 for 10 yards last weekend. He and Woody Marks shared touches, but Marks finished even worse with 1 yard a carry on his 8. 41 yards from 7 receptions for them wasn’t great either, but this week will be better for them against a poor Colts defense.
After a disappointing opening game where the Ravens speed killed them the Colts looked better in taking the Chiefs to OT, mainly on the back of Jonathan Taylor who rushed in another 2 TDs and moved to 190 rush yards on the season, he’s had 4 targets in each game. They are without Alec Pierce who’s moved to IR, so Josh Downs well get a heavy dose of targets again with… Oh, Laquon Treadwell, of course behind him. Tyler Warren should be getting more of the ball after his rookie year, but I think the passing game will struggle against this defense. I’ve always liked a prop bet on Darius Slayton too, he’s just signed with the Colts.
Sorry Colts, I think the Texans win this one, mainly because of their defense which I don’t think Jones will be able to cope with as his mobility has been underwhelming so far this year. Give me that 5/2 on Slyaton having a 20+ yard reception. He’s been signed to replace Alec Pierce so hopefully he’ll get his routes.
Chiefs -10.5 @ Dolphins: 45.5
The Chiefs look back to where they were after two games of the season, and the Dolphins look like they’re where we expected as well.
Kenneth Walker looks like the player to take the Chiefs back to the promised land with the way he’s started the season. He’s 2nd in carries, 2nd in rush yards (behind Bijan who played on TNF) and has added another 79 yards through the air as well. They’re using him a lot and he’s showing why he was MVP in the Super Bowl in February. Mr Kelce looks revived now he’s married which is a worry for the rest of the league and Rice and Worthy are a decent enough 1-2. Tyquan Thornton will get a bit of the ball and Emmett Johnson has been involved in his rookie season.
The Dolphins have to play out the season and I doubt they’ll get a win… wait, do they play the Packers or Chargers at all? Malik Willis at least adds some fun with his legs and will use De’von Achane a fair bit. They’ve used a few WRs, I guess Malik Washington will be most targeted?
Chiefs win, probably cover the spread. This should be a cakewalk and a lot of rushing for the Chiefs, so Walker o82.5 rush yards
Jets +6.5 @ Lions: 47.5
Both teams come in at 1-1, the Jets beat a horrible Titans team and lost in OT to a poor Packers team, the Lions beat the Saints in OT, and lost to the Bills last TNF.
Geno Smith hasn’t turned the ball over, but he’s only thrown 1 TD this year, to Garret Wilson last weekend. They’ve actually got a bit of talent here with Breece Hall doing well on the ground and through the air, Wilson stacking 1000 yard seasons with horrible QB play and Adonai Mitchell looking all right since coming in from the Colts. Kenyon Sadiq has started slow but is getting involved as a rookie TE.
The Lions can always put up points, but can they stop them? Goff will find Amon-Ra St. Brown for a TD or two, Gibbs will get one of two. Sam LaPorta has started the year well but they really could do with more from Jameson Williams who is a streaky player who’s not got near to starting a streak so far this year.
Lions should win and cover this one. Take anywhere near evens on Amon-Ra St. Brown to score a TD. 10/11 the best available at the moment. Adonai Mitchell o3.5 receptions 10/11
Seahawks -7.5 @ Commanders: 40.5
The Seahawks showed that the Super Bowl win might not have been a fluke with another dominant defensive performance to go 2-0 while the Commanders lost Jayden Daniels for some time as he dislocated his non-throwing elbow in their defeat to the Cowboys.
The Seahawks will have Sam Darnold at QB, but it feels like anyone could chuck it up for JSN at the moemnt and have 200 yards and a TD or two. Drew Lock threw for 235 yards last week, 155 of those were for JSN who is somehow just unguardable, he also scored all 3 of their receiving TDs as well, and will surely continue that against a poor Commies team. Jadarian Price has run well when on the field, but he missed a lot of last week with Emmanuel Wilson taking 21 carries through the game although, none of the RBs found the endzone as AJ Barner got the sole rushing TD. Price should be fine to start here and I assume get the bulk of the carries.
It’s Marcus Mariota for the Commanders then and he can run the offense, 11/16 for 111 yards and a TD last week isn’t a complete write off, although they could do with more help from Jacory Crosskey-Merritt on the ground who might be losing carries to Rachaad White who’s looked more electric so far. The passing game isn’t exactly great with Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin maybe showing their age. They had 15 targets between them last week and with Chig Okonkwo expected to miss out again, don’t have a whole lot of competition for targets. Antonio Williams scored in week 1 and caught all 3 of his targets last week, he might be worth a look in markets. Dyami Brown had 6 targets though and backups like backups?
Seahawks should win and do it comfortably, I’d maybe be looking to take the Commanders under their team points. I am stunned to see Jaxon Smith-Njigba at Evens (Betfred)
Titans +2.5 @ Giants: 38.5
Oh my. The Titans don’t look good but nearly snuck a win against the Eagles last week. The Giants had started the season well but lost their QB for the season after a couple of plays on Monday night. Things aren’t looking good for either.
Cam Ward can sneak in for scores, he did twice weekend but he doesn’t seem to have designed runs in the playbook. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have been trying but not doing much, the passing game is fairly inept with Carnell Tate not yet living up to the high draft pick and Wan’dale Robinson not getting his PPR game working at the moment. Elic Ayomanor has their only receiving TD this year and he nearly had another last week, he’s probably the one to look at, at his odds.
Jameis Winston was not good when he came in last weekend but he’s known he’s the starter all week so might be better this week? Isiah Likely led them in targets last week and it couold be good news for Malachi Fields with Malik Nabers obviously not fully healthy at the moment. Cam Skattebo is fun to watch but this whole team is probably pretty stinking now.
Nothing on anything here. I guess Likely receptions or Devin Singletary yards as he seems to be the RB2. Maybe Jameis rushing TD. Singletary o3.5 rec yards. I was hoping than larger than 13/2 for Winston anytime.
Ravens -3.5 @ Cowboys: 53.5 (Channel 5)
Brazil! Yeah, that field doesn’t look great. Hopefully it doesn’t ruin the game.
The Ravens lost to the Saints last week as the attrition they’ve got at WR showed through. The Cowboys took themselves to 1-1 with a comfy win over the Commanders who lost Jayden Daniels for a while.
Derrick Henry remains the main man for the Ravens as they look to concentrate on the run even more than ever. Zay Flowers probably misses out, Jakobi Lane is out again, so the mighty Rashod Bateman is probably the WR1 which isn’t ideal. Mark Andrews will get some targets but it’s all a bit of a mess behind those. Should be good for betting really with such a concentrated offense. It’s Derrick Henry scoring.
The Cowboys get up early last week and coasted out from there. Ceedee Lamb and Jake Ferguson doing the damage early on as both finshed with a brace each. Ferguson finally cashing in on the red zone targets he’s been getting in recent years. They’ll probably want and expect more from George Pickens and will be hoping Javonte Williams gets more than 2.5 yards per carry. Weirdly they only had 5 players receive a target last week which is the lowest I think I’ve ever seen.
Should be points here and they should be quite localised, so maybe some winnings to be made. Henry 2 TDs, Lamb 2 TDs? Maybe it’s a Javonte 2 TDs week?
Cardinals +8.5 @ 49ers: 48.5 (Sky)
The Cardinals didn’t look too bad against the Chargers, but that might be them…they did very little vs the Seahawks. The 49ers are 2-0 and looking good, although supposedly can’t put Nick Bosa on IR as they’re running out of spots as their injury curse continues.
Jacoby Brissett has been fine, Jeremiah Love looking pretty good on the ground and Trey McBride has carried on from where he left off last season. As has Marv Harrison for not good reasons, 1 target for him last week as he sits on 33 yards for the season. Michael Wilson and Kendrick Bourne are the WRs sharing the majority of the targets, I’ll plump for Wilson leading the WR group in that aspect here.
The 49ers have looked very good with Kaelon Black and CMC sharing early carries, although CMC will still get all the important carries whether that’s 3rd down or red zone carries. Mike Evans has had a good start to his career in San Fran and George Kittle showed he was fully back to things last week with 80 yards and a TD. Deebo Samuel is the only other healthy WR with Demarcus Robinson now going down with injury as well, but they did sign Brandin Cooks this week to add some more speed when he’s back to health. Juice scored his yearly TD last weekend.
49ers win and cover. Although the Cardinals are spunky and don’t do too badly in this matchup historically. Wilson o3.5 receptions – 4/6
Vikings -1.5 @ Bucs: 42.5
The Vikings are 2-0 on the back of their defense and playing underwater last weekend, the Bucs are 0-2 and probably getting desperate now in a week NFC South.
The Vikings might have Kyler Murray back at QB this week as he’s out of concussion protocol, but will they want to start him over the QB who’s led them to two wins? I think they will. Aaron Jones is the remaining RB for them and will play despite being a little banged up. Deejay Dallas is the de facto RB if Jones happens to go out of the game. Justin Jefferson remains very good and TJ Hockenson is getting more targets now after a poor last season. Their defense though… is just plain scary.
The Bucs have struggled massively to start the year and I can’t see that changing in this one. Bucky Irving has been really good on the ground and catching short passes, most were expecting Kenneth Gainwell to be more involved as replacement for Rachaad White but he’s been fairly non-existent. Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin are largely sharing targets while Ted Hurst actually led the team in that area last week.
Vikings and under?
Raiders +3.5 @ Saints: 43.5 (Sky)
The Raiders are sitting pretty at 2-0, the Saints could be there having put up close games against the Lions and their win over the Ravens.
Ashton Jeanty is getting loaded up with touches as they use their defense to restrict opponents and try to concentrate on their stud RB who has 44 carries and 10 receptions in their opening two games despite missing a quarter or so with an ankle injury last weekend. He and Mike Washington look good and Kirk Cousins has thrown 3 TDs in each of his two games since joining with Cody White hauling in 2 scores last week and Tre Tucker finishing with a huge 119 yards last week, he’s always capable of it with his speed. This week? Jack Bech? Will Brock Bowers be back? He’s working towards it.
It’s been weird for the Saints, they’ve had good and bad quarters but they hang in there and the win over the Ravens last week looked fully deserved. Chris Olave looks fantastic and will likely get 10+ targets again and Juwan Johnson is always going to be looked at with Tyler Shough. Deshaugn Vele might be something for the Saints this year, another 7 targets for him last week. Alvin Kamara came back and took carries off Travis Etienne although neither ran well last week.
Surely I’ve got to take the Saints giving up just a FG at home? Surely the Raiders can’t go 3-0?! Jeanty o3.5 receptions – 4/6
Rams -2.5 @ Broncos: 43.5
After 10 days break the Rams took themselves to 1-1 after beating Jameis’ Giants last week while the Broncos got to that mark too with a home win over the Jaguars.
The Rams will likely be without Puka Nacua again this week but it didn’t hurt them last weekend as Davante Adams showed he could still put up yardage with 195 and a 2 TDs, and did we finally get the Terrance Ferguson game that people we expecting in week 1? Will that continue through the season? Behind those two there was very little last weekend. The Rams want to rely on their defense and run game and Kyren Williams and Blake Corum had 112 carries each at 7.1 and 6.6 yards per carry respectively. They’ll do well to replicate any of those figures against this defense.
The Broncos still don’t look great but ground out the result last week, Jonah Coleman looked great in the work he got with JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey missing out, but this week it’s Coleman out of the game and the other two looking like they’re coming back in. Jaylen Waddle had his proper debut game with 8 receptions for 138 yards and they’ve got plenty of pass catchers behind him, although none we can really count on on a week-to-week basis. Courtland Sutton should still get some red zone looks.
A very tough one to call, I have to take the unders though? Probably a win for the Rams but both defenses here should be on top.
Eagles -4.5 @ Bears: 41.5
The Eagles are 2-0 after experiencing a near shock against the Titans last week. The Bears lost Caleb Williams for a while and replacement Tyson Bagent looks like he’ll miss this one too, so we get Case Keenum in primetime! The Bears are 1-1 after scoring just 3 points in a monsoon last weekend.
Devonta Smith was responsible for saving the game for them last week, he’s probably playing, despite a hamstring injury and Dallas Goedert is banged up too. Dontayvion Wicks has been more involved than most would have expected and Darius Cooper caught his first NFL TD last weekend, with Goedert doubtful there will likely be chances for others in the red zone and that could be Cooper again. Saquon Barkley had a rough one after missing half the game with a stinger and he’s also listed as questionable. Tank Bigsby ran pretty well as the 1 though.
So, can the Bears do anything with Keenum at QB? I trust their play-calling to work around a probably bad QB and create some fun things for D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai who have both run well in this team. Luther Burden seemed to get more of the ball when Caleb went down and was expected to have a big year, so maybe this will be good for him? Kaliff Raymond looks entrenched as a good target and Rome Odunze can do bits as well given the chance. Will Colston Loveland do something this week?
I guess this would be around Pickem, maybe the Bears faves if Caleb Williams were healthy? I have no idea, the Eagles don’t win games by margin and if Devonta Smith misses out it’s a big loss for them.
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