The London games are finished with a cracker at Wembley ending things as the Texans kept the AFC South interesting a little longer with a high-scoring, fun win over the Jags. Elsewhere in the league the Chargers (not Herbert’s fault) lost again to become the only 0-6 team as the Titans won and the Dolphins were on bye week.
At the good end of things the Vikings, Chiefs and 49ers all remain unbeaten, the 49ers the only of those who are 6-0 as we enter Week 7 of the season. We’ve got 4 teams on bye this week, so the Chargers won’t lose this week at least, they’re at home with the Bills, Commanders and the Jaguars as they make their way back from London.
The NFL world tour continues though as it moves on to Paris with the Steelers and Saints face off at the Stade de France. Paris may be burning but the NFL won’t let a little civil unrest put them off putting on their show-piece and the game looks like it will go ahead as planned, hell, it might be good practice for games on homesoil in the near future…
With that in mind, REMEMBER THAT GAMES KICK OFF AT 5PM THIS WEEKEND! as England turns back the clocks by an hour a week before that happens (maybe for the last time) in the states.
I guess it would be rude not to have a TE Trixie (or two maybe) for the weekend with it being their special day.
Steelers -3.5 vs Saints: 44.5
The Steelers are worryingly above 0.500 at the moment as they sit level atop the AFC North at 4-2 while the Saints look to back up their win in NY last week with a victory here.
Pittsburgh needed an OT win against a rookie QB in Tampa to take them to their current record and they actually had a little success through the air as rookie Germie Bernard seems like he’s settled into their scheme and added a nice weapon in the passing game for them; he’s now had 21 target over the last two weeks so has the faith of his judgemental, miserable bellend of a QB. It was also a rare good week for DK Metcalf with 11 from 15 as the Steelers had to chase the win in the second half last weekend. Darnell Washington rumbled in for another score with Muth banged up but they’ll likely split the role here.
Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle shared carries a lot more than I thought they would with a 14:7 split and neither looked good with it, but I’d imagine that will settle to more Warren yardage as we move on.
The Saints can’t win at home but seem all right on the road, they jumped out to a huge lead last weekend before JJ McCarthy made it look closer than it seemed come the final whistle against the Giants. It was interesting to see Kendre Miller getting the bulk of the carries and I don’t see why that won’t happen again here, he has done well with it and Kamara is more the pass-catching back these days as he showed with a shifty 31 yard score last week.
Chris Olave of course will get the bulk of the targets, but that may mean it’s more a Devaugh Vele and Juwan Johnson (who goose-egged last week) game as the one thing the Steelers do well is shut down good players. It would definitely put me off taking Olave props no matter how much I may want them to hit.
With that lovely 3.5 on the board I’ve got to lean to the Saints on this one, and under the total. Prop-wise? It’s got to be Juwan Johnson and Darnell Washington at 11/4 each doesn’t it? – Best price for the double from reputable bookies is 15/1 at CoraLadbrokes – I have no idea what IvyBet is, but apparently you can get nearly 20/1 there. My builder based on that double is below.
Bengals -2.5 @ Ravens: 47.5 (C5)
The Bengals come off their bye week with a clean bill of health to face a Ravens side who will be missing Lamar Jackson again. They lost last week with Tyler Huntley at QB.
The Bengals could do with stringing a full game on both sides of the ball as that hasn’t happened so far this season. The defense is much improved with Dexter Lawrence eating up blocks in the middle of things meaning teams have to take more long ball shots, but the offense hasn’t clicked as we’d hope for the most part. Sure Chase and Higgins can make highlight reel catches each week and will tick things over but the run game hasn’t got going despite a good run-blocking grade from PFF for the OL. It’s been a weird year for Bengals fans.
IF Lamar doesn’t play they’ll have to rely on Derrick Henry again and against a lesser run-D than the Browns that might not be a bad thing for them. It’s another week of health under the belt of Zay Flowers and Ja’kobi Lane who have looked good when healthy on the field and the TE position should get a lot of targets with the Bengals LBs being the weak point of their defense.
I am a very surprised they’re not going with Lamar here, but I guess at 4-2, even in a very competitive AFC North they figure it’s not worth risking him so early in the season. Oh wow, I guess Bengals win but there’s no way in hell I’d be backing that! This is the Bengals. In a divisional clash, if anything take the Ravens if they get to 3 points. Ja’kobi Lane o20.5 rec. yards – 20/23, definitely tempted by MAndrews o28.5 as well. Hell, even Rashod Bateman seems too low at 19.5 if we think the Bengals will be able to put up points.
49ers -2.5 @ Falcons: 49.5
Wow, some respect for the Falcons here, or maybe it’s just the 49ers having no-one left to throw to? San Fran are unbeaten at 6-0, the Falcons had their wings clipped by the Bears last weekend with garbage time making the score look respectable.
Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans are both ruled out, so it might be the returning Christian Kirk as WR1? Other than him you’re looking at Jordan Watkins and Jacob Cowling? But more realistically George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey nearing double-digit targets for the 49ers. CMC caught 9 of 10 last weekend and it wouldn’t be too shocking to see him and Bijan leading their teams in receptions and yards in this one. Kaelon Black continues to take carries on early downs as they sensibly don’t overload their star white-boy.
It’s Bijan and Drake London and not much else for the Falcons, although Jahan Dotson led them in yardage last weekend and it was the one good week to be a Kyle Pitts owner as he scored twice. I’ve to to think this will be a return to Bijan getting everything as they will face pressure and very good coverage from a top-5 defense, and with Brian Robinson ruled out they might give Bijan even more touches now.
Feels rude to the 49ers so I’ve got to lean to them winning by at least a field goal. It’s Juice or Kirk receptions at 1.5 or 2.5 – I’m not sure which but someone has to catch the ball.
Giants +10.5 @ Texans: 42.5
The Giants have moved to JJ McCarthy as their starting QB for this game, hard to argue after he threw for 243 yards and a TD in the 4th quarter last weekend after coming in for Jameis Winston. The Texans luck finally changed last week and they’ll hope that continues here back home.
The Giants mixed up their running back group after a Skattebo fumble and it turned out well for Tyrone Tracy who finished with 2 TDs. It wasn’t quite as good for Najee Harris, who whined like a bitch and was then cut in the week. So, who will it be this weekend?! Personally I think that was Skattebo serving his punishment and he’ll be back as the 1, but with Tracy doing well who knows. We probably know that Malik Nabers will get 15+ targets again as he did for the second week in a row, and Isiah Likely probably gets a load as well. Darnell Mooney left the game last week but seems like he’ll be fine.
The Texans have had Nico Collins back a couple of week, gave Marvin Harrison his first game with his college QB last weekend and now welcome back Tank Dell who has made it back from a horrific knee injury to make his season debut this weekend. Things are looking better for them finally. CJ Stroud looked great bar one play in London as he moved the ball around well and with Foster Moreau scoring 2 of his 3 passing TDs and Jaylin Noel having a career game with the other one. It was good for them that they didn’t rely overly on Nico Collins as they have had to in the past. Things look good for the Texans. David Montgomery is out again so expect Woody Marks and Juhwar Jordan to have a similar 60/40 split this week.
I can’t be taking the Texans covering 11 points. Over on the total. Marv Harrison o2.5 receptions – 5/6; ooof I really want to take Skat o28.5 rushing yards, but I have learnt that I am sometimes wrong.
Browns -2.5 @ Titans: 37.5
The Browns are top of the AFC North, that didn’t seem like a sensible prediction; The Titans are bottom of the AFC South… that one seemed a little more believable.
It’s been an all-round performance from the Browns who have played a few games in terrible weather which has definitely helped them, but with a defense that is showing up and a QB who has been keeping things safe they’ve been grinding out results. They have Quishon Judkins back for this one and Dylan Sampson should return to, so they’re nearing full strength on offense. Denzel Boston and KC Concepcioooooown look like shrewd draft picks as they’ve taking all work away from Harold Fannin and it’s been fine for them all.
The Titans are a broken franchise and had they not one last weekend I’d have left it at that, but they came back from the dead to win a divisional game and I’ve got to give them the smallest bit of kudos for that. Carnell Tate is the only person really worth mentioning on their offense, he scored his first NFL TD last weekend, but this is a far better defense than the one he faced in Indy.
Feels stupid to be taking the Browns as road favourites, but it feels worse to be taking the Titans to win a game. It’s a no-bet on that side of things. Could easily be 20-10 so while I’ll be avoiding bets on this game I’d be leaning under the total.
Colts +6.5 @ Vikings: 41.5
The Colts lost, at home, to the worst team in the league. The Vikings are unbeaten coming off thier bye week.
The Colts have taken action in the week by getting rid of GM Chris Ballard but that won’t change things on the field this weekend, they aren’t a good defense and Daniel Jones isn’t a good QB, add to that a lack of weapons with Tyler Warren missing out again and it’s a limited offense. Jonathan Taylor is great, but the passing game with Keenan Allen leading them isn’t a good sign in 2026. Josh Downs isn’t utilised well and Treylon Burks/Laquon Treadwell isn’t exactly inspiring.
Talking of terrible passing games… lets hope that Kyler Murray has been wearing lead shoes this week which will stop him tapping his tiny little feet in the pocket before launching a ball as far as he can downfield. I refuse to believe he’ll be anything other than below average. The return of Jordan Mason to the run game should help them as a whole though and I’d guess he comes straight in as the main back with Jones behind him. Jefferson and Addison should both go which gives targets at least but I can’t trust either with Kyler on the field.
I mean, the Vikings will win because their defense is outstanding. If I was being forced I’d probably take the Colts to cover just because I have so little faith in the Vikings’ offence to win by a touchdown, and in the same vein, under on the total.
Dolphins +4.5 @ Jets: 39.5
The Dolphins are doing well in their quest for the 1 seed at 0-5 while the Jets showed some life on offense, but thier loss last week took them to 2-4.
The Dolphins will take to the field. Good for them.
Omar Cooper played for the first time since week 1 and scored a TD last week, as well as having one overturned so that’s a good sign for them as they’ll likely be without Breece Hall again this week. It has been all Braelon Allen on the ground and that looks like it will remain, but with Cooper now in the passing game they’ve got more options than just Garrett Wilson, which is great news for them as a team. Adonai Mitchell returns for them, which might explain the big price for Omar Cooper.
Has to be the Jets covering doesn’t it? I’ll happily take the 4/1 on Omar Cooper (365/PP/Most) anytime. Adonai Mitchell 3+ receptions – 6/4
Bucs +2.5 @ Panthers: 44.5
The Bucs gave up the game last weekend after taking a nice lead into the half while the Panthers weren’t as comfy as they should have been against the Eagles.
The Bucs welcome back Baker Mayfield this week but might be without Emeka Egbuka as god clearly hates Florida. If Eggy misses out then you’d imagine more for Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving in the passing game and probably Cade Otton who has shown to be a decent TE in his career. Maybe Ted Hurst will re-emerge as their deep threat with a competent QB there as well? Bucky will get the carries.
The Panthers are at near full strength on offense so Chuba will get the rushing, and Jalen Coker probably most of the passing game, he and Tet McMillan are actually a tidy 1-2 for the Panthers passing game. The host of TE’s they’ve got are always a threat in the red zone, it was Tommy ‘make the opponents defense’ Tremble who scored twice last weekend, who knows which will score this week.
Hard to not take the Panthers covering at home, and it feels like a total that’s 3 or 4 points short in my eyes, so I’d be going over on that.
Broncos -4.5 @ Cardinals: 43.5 (2005 kick off)
The Broncos won a stinker last TNF while the Cardinals scored 6 field goals to beat the Rams, they now have more wins in LA than the Rams and Chargers combined this year.
You have probably seen the deserved mocking of Bo Nix this week, he didn’t throw a pass past the line of scrimmage in the second half last week and is averaging under 5 yards per attempt this season, all in all, it stinks for the Broncos offense. HOWEVERRRRRRR, they have activiated Jonah Coleman off IR this week and I think he’ll get the workload ahead of JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey who have been below distinctly average this year so far… So, I’m backing him to score.
The Cardinals are without Jeremiah Love again, so a mix of Bam Knight and Tyler Allgeier on the ground. I assume they’ll be back to giving Michael Wilson his catches back after he had a down week last weekend, it will be him and Trey McBride getting most of the passing work with Kendrick Bourne scheduled for his down week after 5 for 47 last weekend for him.
I thought the Broncos would be nearer 6.5 here and the total would be lower, so I’ve got to say Broncos and under as my leans for this one. Jonah Coleman anytime – 4/1 (Boylesports), o18.5 rush yards for him as well.
Packers +3.5 @ Lions: 53.5
By some way the highest total of the weekend as they fight for position in the NFC North. The Packers won against the Cowboys last weekend while the Lions come off their bye week with a winning record.
The Packers welcome back woman-beater Josh Jacobs who is quickly off the commissioners exempt list and you’d imagine straight back into a big workload as the Packers have struggled to move the ball on the ground without him. Marshawn Lloyd did, however, score last weekend and Pierre Strong had a good game, but Jacobs is much better than both. The passing game for the Packers uses a lot of deep shots with Golden and Watson working well with Jordan Love, but the TEs are the position against the Lions, so maybe it’s worth looking at Tucker Kraft and Jonnu Smith this weekend?
Jahmyr Gibbs has scored every week and comes into this one with 9 on the season, that’s as many as 4 teams have scored so far this year and I doubt that will stop now he’s had a week to recover from his big workload so far this year. Jared Goff is without an interception so far this year and has 12 TD throws, he’ll probably want to get Amon-Ra St. Brown a score as he’s been a couple of games without one now, although he has had his chances. Jameson Williams hit his purple patch before their bye and it’ll be interesting to see if he can carry that on and Sam LaPorta is looking to earn a new deal although he’s apparently suggested he’s fine wherever he gets paid next year.
Should be a fun one, and rightly the highest total on a pretty rough-looking slate today. I’d probably lean the Lions coming off thier bye week, but there’s no real confidence in it as their defense has not been good this year. Jonnu Smith 10/1 (CoraLadbrokes) – Again, Ivybet has higher odds, but I’ve never heard of them.
Rams -3.5 @ Raiders: 48.5
The Rams are 2-4, the Raiders are 3-3. I doubt many expected the Raiders to have the better record come week 7 and it might remain that way after this weekend as well…
The Rams are without Devante Adams for the bulk of the season now and have said that Puka Nakua will be a game-time decision so they could be without their two main pass-catchers. Without them it would be the three TEs and not much else. I guess Konata Mumpfield and Tutu Atwell getting targets, althogh they’d be trying to give all the work to Kyren Williams and Blake Corum – I couldn’t tell you which one as it seems utterly random who they decide to piss off each weekend. It’s a calf injury for Puka and I personally think it would make sense for him not to play but they might already be at do or die in a tough NFC West.
The Raiders have been pretty fun at least, and with Brock Bowers playing the majority of his snaps at WR they have a difference maker in that position at least, he’ll be nearing 10 targets again I’d imagine. Michael Mayer had the same amount as him last weekend and Tre Tucker did well with them chasing the game. Ashton Jeanty was questionable going into last week but had 14 touches as he gets a lot through the air as well as the rushing work.
I thought the Rams would be shorter favourites and the total would be lower, so I guess I’m leaning Raiders and under on this one. If Puka doesn’t play then it cements those suggestions even more.
Chiefs +2.5 @ Seahawks: 42.5
The Chiefs are still unbeaten at 5-0 while the Seahawks had a mini-bye after Darnold shit the bed on TNF against the Broncos.
Rashee Rice misses again for the Chiefs who are relying a lot on Kenneth Walker early in the season and he gets a quick return to the team who wouldn’t pay him in the offseason. He leads the league in rushing yards so far, is 6th in carries and has 8 total TDs from their 5 games this year, safe to say he’s been an important signing for them. Xavier Worthy led them in yards last week and I’d imagine it will be largely him and Kelce in this one, although they did give their rookies a few looks last week as well with Allen, Royals, Johnson and Armstrong getting 11 targets between them.
The Seahawks is off of PUP but won’t be active for this week so they’ve got their mess of Emmanuel Wilson and George Holani, they have had a game or two where they’ve looked OK, but I can’t trust them week-to-week. The passing game can’t really be trusted with Darnold either but he surely won’t be as bad as last week. I trust the Chiefs enough to be able to slow Jaxon Smith-Njigba and that’s basically all that’s needed to stop the Seahawks offense these days. Shaheed, Kupp and Barner can do bits but, again, they’re not players you can trust.
I think the Chiefs remain unbeaten in a low-scoring affair.
Cowboys -4.5 @ Eagles: 44.5
The Cowboys continue to provide laughs to neutrals while the Eagles are looking toward next season. This isn’t quite the game the league thought it would be to close the weekend.
How bout them boys? Javonte Williams remains the only constant in a team who struggle to string good phases together. Dak will find Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens regularly, they had 18 and 11 targets respectively in their loss last week, but the emergence of Ryan Flournoy is messing up any props you might want on the big two in this team. Jake Ferguson continues to confound with terrible statlines from his targets.
Tanner McKee was hideous last week but the Eagles defense will keep things close. Devonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks both miss out, so, 10 targets for Dallas Goedert? Makai Lemon to have a career day? Although that would only require about 20 yards for it to happen… Saquon Barkley might be back? But to be honest with them tanking the season now, I don’t see why they would bother with him returning. Dameon Pierce found the endzone last week for them.
Ugh, I really don’t want to take the Cowboys as road favourites. So with it being over 3 points I’d lean to the Eagles and under on the total.
TE Trixies!
STUPID ONE: Gavin Bartholemew (Vikings) around 10/1; Jeremy Ruckert 16/1 (Jets) and above; Kyle Juzscsyk (49ers) 11/2 or so – Not technically a TE, but I like his odds and feel he’s got a decent chance.
MORE SENSIBLE ONE: Mark Andrews (Ravens) around 3/1; Gunnar Helm (Titans) 11/2 and above; Isiah Likely 5/2
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