The third and final London game moves over to Wembley today as the home-town Jaguars host a divisional clash against the Texans in what is now looking like the best of the three we’ve been blessed with this year, although the Eagles put up a lot of fight before losing after taking the lead with literally 8 seconds left in the game as Cam Little hit a game-winning field goal.
The Chiefs, 49ers and the Vikings still remain unbeaten, one of those doesn’t really fit, but well done to all of those so far, while at the other end the Chargers, Titans and Dolphins are still winless with that not looking like it’s going to change at, well, any point this season. The race for Jeremiah Smith is on!
Texans +2.5 v Jags: 41.5 (Wembley)
The Texans won their first game of the season with a comfy win over the Titans last week; The Jags scraped a win at Spurs against a beaten up Eagles team.
The Texans are a different team with Nico Collins back in the lineup and they’d probably be happy that they were able to use other players last weekend. Jaylin Noel and CJ Stroud the two players on the scoresheet last weekend. David Montgomery is missing this week so Woody Marks will get the bulk of the touches on the ground. Nico will lead them in targets and it’s a fair matchup for him in yardage at least. Oh, and they traded for Marvin Harrison from the Cardinals this week, a move that must be good for all parties. His participation this week is completely unknown, but his 21.5 yard line is definitely a tempter.
Parker Washington and Brenton Strange had good matchups last week and took advantage of that with 172 yards between them, Washingtoon with the bulk of those and the 2 TDs after a breakaway 50 yard TD early on. They moved the ball around the rest, with Brian Thomas again largely irrelevant, I doubt I’m getting plus money on Josh Cameron catches now after he had 6 targets last weekend. Tuten got the bulk on the ground again, but if not for some dreadful play-calling C Rod would have scored from his red zone touches.
Recent history between these two is fairly even. Obviously, the Jags have been in the UK for some time now so will be acclimated. The Texans defense hasn’t been as elite as it was last year so I’m leaning for this to go over, and lean to the Jaguars as the full on home team. Tuten has been regular – between 65 and 73 rushing yards, his line is set at 63.5 today, it’ll be tight. Josh Cameron o1.5 rec – 4/5
Bears -1.5 @ Falcons: 52.5 (5Action)
Caleb Williams returning at QB changes this game and should make it more fun at least as the Bears will likely put up more points; the Falcons are starting Michael Penix after worries about injury festered into the week.
So we can probably write off the previous few weeks of the Bears, they were poop last weekend and even went back to Case Keenum at QB. It didn’t work. Kyle Monangai misses again so D’Andre Swift will share carries with a host of chumps again I’d imagine. Roschon Johnson the official RB2, I would assume Caleb will get some rushes whether he means to or not. It probably means a bounce-back for Kaliff Raymond and the rest of the receiving corps who looked good early in the season. I chose Raymond because of the start of the season he had when Caleb was at QB.
The worry for the over and the Bears in this game is that the Falcons control the ball with Bijan and Brian Robinson and run them into submission. Bijan is up there with Gibbs as the best in the league now and is great to watch, he leads in rushing yards and has nearly 200 through the air as well, he’ll be over 1000 combined by halfway through the season. Drake London has great numbers with Penix at QB but the books know that and his reception lines are always too high for a bet.
Kaliff Raymond 15+ reception – 10/11 same book has 1/1 on his longest being o14.5, 20+ reception – 2/1 and 30+ reception – 13/2. I think they target him a bit this week and the Falcons secondary isn’t good. Um… no idea on this one to be honest. I guess Falcons and under, but it’s a definite stay-away.
Panthers -3.5 @ Eagles: 38.5 (Sky)
The Panthers are fun. The Eagles are planning for the future.
The Panthers come off their bye week with Bryce Young still top 10 in yards, TDs and QBR despite playing a game fewer than others and he gets Jalen Coker back in this one as well who was highly used in the opening weeks of the season before missing with injury. Chuba Hubbard is a decent RB and their bevy of TEs are useful in the redzone, they actually look quite good and should put up yards. Tet McMillan had a huge game before the bye, I’d imagine he’ll get Quinyon Mitchell this week which is not a good matchup for him.
Jalen Hurts has headed to IR with blood clots – doesn’t sound great after flying back from London, he’s added to a host of injuries. So Tanner McKee starts, he should get Devonta Smith back at least who I’d imagine will get 10+ targets. Without Devonta they had 220 yards of passing. Darius Cooper with a lot of that on a 62 yard TD run. Dontayvion Wicks is a deep shot waiting to happen and Dallas Goedert will get a lot of the ball as the release-valve. I actually quite like McKee as a backup, he’s mobile and works this dismal offense pretty well. Oh yeah, Dameon Pierce is RB1 for them, he looked terrible last week behind a poor OL.
Tanner McKee o6.5 rush yards. Goedert o3.5 receptions. Hard to look past the Panthers with better rest and hugely healthier against a backup QB. It’s a low total, go over on that fella. Waller anytime – 10/3 (is a 4/1 on Betway)
Jets +7.5 @ Patriots: 43.5 (Sky)
It wasn’t a big cliff for the Jets, but they seem to have fallen off it, while it looks like the Pats have hit their heights again.
Geno was never good, he started the season fine but has gone back to what we knew he was. They are without Breece Hall again so Braelon Allen gets all the rushing and Garrett Wilson gets all the receptions. Not a whole lot more to talk about on that side of the ball.
Drake Maye threw 4 TDs and rushed one in last weekend as they stomped on the Raiders. Demario Douglas scored 2 of them, Kyle Williams and Hunter Henry. So they’re back to moving the ball around their WRs. That won’t happen this week as they have activated AJ Brown from IR and he’ll probably soak up a lot of targets or he’ll sulk. Rhamondre Stevenson will get the bulk on the ground with Treveyon Henderson out with an ankle sprain.
Pats win and cover. Jets probably score 10 points, will the Pats score enough to go over the total?
Ravens -3 @ Browns: 39.5
Lamer is out so it’s Tyler Huntley again, the Browns look to tie up the top of the AFC North after losing last weekend.
24 carries, 102 yards for Derrick Henry last week and a receiving TD for him, imagine the same in this one, and Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman to be the targets in that order. Same again? Probably.
Deshaun Watson has been fine, but struggled in horrible weather last weekend. Denzel Boston got his longshot TD once more, Bond and Jeudy got 7 targets each and Harold Fannin had a shocker at TE. They might somehow has KCConcepcioooooon back this week as he’s somehow through concussion protocol after a brutal hit last weekend. Sounds like Judkins will play but has been banged up, Jaleel McClaughlin might get some touches.
Weirdly split in recent years because AFC North football is just weird. I’m probably leaning to the Browns because of that. Zay Flowers anytime – 21/10 (365) – I’ll admit I was hoping Lamar was back to aggravate his injury but they’re saving him for my Bengals next week.
Saints -1.5 @ Giants: 46.5
Saints just had 3 home games, lost all of them. Giants have won all their home games so far.
So maybe being back on the road will be good for the Saints who have shown fight after going behind in most of their games. Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller will split carries with Miller getting the important ones. Chris Olave will get a ton of targets and Juwan Johnson will probably get some RZ targets as well. They’re not a good team but I feel they could easily score 40 in a week if it all randomly clicked.
Jameis Winston went through a game without an interception last weekend, he threw 326 yards and 3 TDs in their weird OT draw last weekend. Malik Nabers and Isiah Likely will, er.. likely be the main targets once more although I doubt Nabers will get 20 targets again in this one! Cam Skattebo may well find the endzone though as I feel they’ll go run heavy with him and Najee Harris.
Give me 11/4 on Juwan Johnson (CoraLadbrokes) and I’ll risk Darnell Mooney at 13/2 for the Giants, he had 7 targets last weekend, a couple in the endzone.
Steelers -2.5 @ Bucs: 39.5
Come on now, the Steelers shouldn’t be faves in Tampa, although their defense could cause a backup QB a lot of issues.
Rico Dowdle returns for the Steelers but I doubt that changes much for Jaylen Warren who has run very well this year so far. The passing game relies on Rodgers being consistent and I don’t think he’s that any more, and with a severe lack of talent it’s not easy for him. Friermuth might be limited after popping up on the injury report so it might be a Darnell Washington game. Germie Bernard had a good game last week and has had a lot of targets, he might be worth looking at again.
The Bucs pulled off a win in Dallas against the Cowboys 10 days ago with Jalon Daniels mum in attendance to see her sons first win. It was a big Bucky Irving game as he had 165 yards and a TD on the ground and another TD through the air, he won’t be able to do that in this one. So Daniels will likely have to throw more and that will probably be to Egbuka and Cade Otton who seem the be the main targets for him with Chris Godwin showing his age. Jalon Daniels rush yards is 35.5. He is obviously mobile and will scramble but that seems high to me.
Maybe the favourite is correct here, but it will be warm, and the Bucs have the rest advantage. I think unders is the play and lean to the Bucs. Jaylen Warren o60.5 rush yards; Darnell Washington anytime – 4/1 (CoraLadbrokes)
Titans +6.5 @ Colts: 44.5
The Titans might be worse than the Dolphins, impressive. The Colts probably aren’t that much better.
Not a whole lot to talk about with the Titans. Cam Ward will probably be out of a job next year, Carnell Tate isn’t doing a whole lot, Wan’Dale Robinson remains a PPR hero but doesn’t do much more.
Jonathan Taylor has big games against the Titans and he’s probably good for 2+ TDs in this one. Tyler Warren was injured in training and officially questionable, he was their leading receiver last weekend. Laquon Treadwell remains highly targeted and doing nothing and they still don’t seem to want to bring in Darius Slayton.
Obviously I can’t take 2/1 for 2+ for Taylor despite it probably happening. Colts to win and cover. Taylor o89.5 seems fine.
Cardinals +12.5 @ Rams: 51.5
The Cardinals started all right but have realised who they are; the Rams have only won 1 game more.
Jeremiah Love misses out so Tyler Allgeier probably gets all the carries with Bam Knight probably getting some behind him. Marv Harrison moving on doesn’t change much in the passing game, he was barely involved anyway so Trey McBride and Michael Wilson will probably lead the target list still. I’m still a bit raving over last week where I went for their TE2 and their TE3 scored twice. That sure would have been a nice winner for me.
This should be a good game for Kyren Williams and Blake Corum as they’ll probably be able to rely on the ground game a lot. Puka Nacua as always will be the majority target, after seeing 20 for Nabers last weekend the Rams thought they wanted that title back and gave Puka 24 targets in their OT loss last weekend. Tyler Higbee has been increasingly invovled and Adams will likely get a fade from the 1 yard line.
Rams win, probably cover but I don’t want to take double-digits. Corum o53.5 rushing and recieving yards. I was expecting far better than 4/1 for Bam Knight, he will probably get more touches than expected.
Bills -4.5 @ Raiders: 53.5
The Bills won in OT on Monday night, the Raiders shit the bed in NE and fly back home for another humping.
Josh Allen completed 12 passes last week, the Bills scored 37 points. He also ran for 121 yards with James Cook adding 111, so there is that. The point is they can win in multiple ways with a QB playing as the MVP once more. It does make them tough to bet on as it’s all so localised and the passing game is quite variable making anyone in that area a tough selection. Keon Coleman caught 1, scored 1 last week making it two games in a row, and DJ Moore might never be healthy.
Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers, that’s the Raiders. Quick story… I had a trixie on 1st TD scorers last weekend, Gesicki, Christian Watson and Brock Bowers, all three would have returned 4k from a tenner… he scored the Raiders first TD, but the second of the game. Gutted. Still paid £375 though. No, I didn’t recommend it on here and never will.
It’s a comedown spot for the Bills but they’re the less travelled having stayed on the West coast for the week. Have to lean under on such a high total, but both teams could score 20+ here. Cody White anytime – 7/1 – Had quite a few targets so I’ll take this price in a game the books expect to be high scoring.
Chargers +7.5 @ Chiefs: 41.5
Chargers are 0-5 and things don’t look like they’ll get any better. The Chiefs after a bye week… ding ding.
Nothing to talk about on the Chargers front, all their OL are injured and they’re just a broken team.
Kenneth Walker has been a great signing for the Chiefs, they won’t even miss Rashee Rice who is out this week, with Tyquan Thornton out as well maybe they’ll use Cyrus Allen a bit after his pre-season hype quickly faded. But it will probably just mean more for Kelce. Maybe Emmett Johnson will score his first TD for the Chiefs at 13/2.
This would arguably be the biggest shock of the weekend, so, for that reason I’m going nowhere near the result.
Cowboys +1.5 @ Packers: 53.5 (SNF)
The Cowboys hilariously lost and were booed off their own field after their defeat to the Bucs last TNF. The Packers stomped on the Bagent/Keenum Bears.
How to say anything about the Cowboys… CeeDee Lamb is good to go here which is good for them, he and Pickens should always get yards through the air. Jake Ferguson may well be banished after yet another fuck up cost them the chance to win last weekend and Javonte Williams has 7 TDs in 5 games and has a good matchup here.
Jordan Love had a great game last week, can he make it two in a row? Christian Watson is 5th in yards and 2nd in receiving TDs this season and he’s scored 1st in 3 of their 5 games this season, including last weekend, and he’s scored in 4 of their 5 games, he might be good. Matthew Golden is having a good sophomore season as he looks like he’s settled into the team now. This is their last game without Josh Jacobs who has been moved from the commissioner’s exempt list. Great work NFL, just fantastic stuff. Their run game has been shit without him so he’ll be straight back in next weekend.
Hard to argue with the high total here, should be points on both sides. Nothing on the props. Pierre Strong at around 3/1 shows how dismal their RB group has been so far. I guess Packers win and cover given their home game record.
Commanders +7.5 @ 49ers: 52.5 (MNF)
Jayden Daniels came back last week and rushed in for 2 in their tie; the 49ers won again as their defense overcame the Seahawks.
London didn’t get JD and that was a shame as he makes this Commanders team at least watchable. They’ll be without Jacory Crosskey-Merritt this week so Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler will get the ground worl, I would imagine White getting more carries but it might just mean a lot more passing for the Commanders as both are good as pass-catching backs. Terry McLaurin will be playing and they’ll hope for Stefon Diggs to be back after he missed last weekend, he’s officially questionable. Without him there’s not THAT much in the passing game for them and it’s a tough matchup for the whole group.
Fair play to the 49ers, it’s hard to argue with them now being the faves to take the title, their defense did the work for them last weekend as they constantly turned over the Seahawks and Brock Purdy did enough to get the job done for them. Mike Evans should have been the 1 coming into the year and with so many injuries at WR he’s firmly cemented there. Kittle is the man behind him and then there’s not a huge amount otherwise. As always CMC will get the important carries.
Overs? I’m a little surprised it’s such a high spread so I think I’d lean to the commies but it’s not something I’d bet on. Ekeler 10/1 (BoyleSports) seems overpriced given the injury to “Bill”. Daniels o18.5 completions.
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