After a day down at Spurs watching the Commanders lose to the Colts (shame about Mariota, that really ruined the game) I have tried to catch up on the NFL from last weekend. The Raiders lost their unbeaten record but covered the spread as they continue to impress against a Chiefs team who moved to 4-0 and now go on their bye week. Yes, there are ALREADY Bye weeks with the Chiefs and Panthers having the week off.
The 49ers and Vikings remain unbeaten as well, the first of those facing a real test this weekend in Seattle against the reigning champs. The Vikings offense is dismal, Kyler Murray should probably see if he can still take advantage of his baseball contract as he’s utterly useless, BUT their defense is great and they face the Saints this weekend who have their third consecutive home game.
If you are going to the game at Tottenham this weekend, DO NOT go to NO.8 BAR for a drink! It is INSANELY expensive! Fortunately for me, it was the guy I went with who bought our 4 drink round and paid £52 for it… I went across the road on my round to the social club and get my pints for £5 each. Even the stadium was fairly reasonable for a venue at £7-8 a pint.
With the Eagles decimated by injuries at the moment the Cowboys had a real chance to take a step towards the NFC East title but they suffered a humiliating home defeat at 7.5 point favourites against a UDFA QB playing his second game. Embarrassing stuff for the ‘boys, maybe it’s not their year after all. The Giants are now looking good.
Before I get into the weekly stuff, I am recommending taking the Jags at 7/1 (BetFred, but mainly 13/2) for the AFC or 14/1 EW (basically makes it 7/1 for making it to the SB) for the SuperBowl. They have the easiest remaining strength of schedule (according to Tankathon) and should make it 4-1 this weekend. They may well be the 1 seed come January so I doubt these odds will last too long past 1740 on Sunday.
Eagles +8.5 @ Jags: 41.5 (London)
The Eagles have had a rough season and things have got worse this week with injuries, retirements and trades. The Jags come over on the back of a win in Cincinnati looking to take themselves to 4-1 on the year.
Devonta Smith, Saquon Barkley and Will Shipley are out, Lane Johnson has retired, Cam Jurgens has been traded to the Ravens for a 2nd round pick. Even without the news from this week they had been pretty damn poor this season so it’s safe to say there’s not a whole lot of optimism around them this weekend… although Quinyon Mitchell and Dallas Goedert might be back?
The offense has been pretty dire, they’re 4th bottom in yards gained and 7th from the basement in points scored this year. I still think they were right to trade AJB but it just doesn’t work for them with how things are no matter who they have calling the plays. Genuinely not a whole lot to say about them from a betting perspective. I guess if Goedert plays then probably back something from his side of things. Oh yeah, Dontayvion Wicks is banged up as well. I probably have to mention Darius Cooper though after his double last weekend.
Hi! Bengals fan here. The Jags defense clearly wanted Chase out of the game and got their wish. The Bengals still put up 500+ yards but couldn’t finish drives. The Jags were a lot more effective with better play-calling and got the job done. I said Brenton Strange would be on for targets and he led the team with 8 as they targeted the Bengals terrible LB group in the middle of the field. Parker Washington had a strangely quiet game, Josh Cameron got his two targets and Brian Thomas broke free to find himself wide open in the endzone for their score. Tuten ran well and I expect him to top his line again this week as well.
The Jags have everything on their side, they do this trip every year, they’re healthier and even with both at full strength were probably the better team, but can I take them to cover more than a TD? No I can not, great Teaser leg though! Bayshul Tuten o65.6 rush yards. He’s had 66,65,73,73 so far this year and with us expecting a cushy win they should just run the game out with him.
Bengals -7 @ Dolphins:43.5
The Bengals may well have Ja’marr Chase back as he progresses through concussion protocol after being cheat-shotted last week. They look to take a positive into their bye week next week. The Fins are 0-4 as expected but Ollie Gordon had 100 yards last weekend.
The Bengals’ run blocking has been rated top 5 so far by PFF, but they had just 23 rush yards last weekend. This must surely be a get-right game for Chase Brown. It sounds like they’ll have Chase and Higgins available for this despite injuries. Either way Dohnte Meyers is probably a good bet for yardage, he had 7 receptions last weekend for 82 yards with the injuries mounting. Colbie Young and Mitchell Tansley might take some two on the off chance Chase and Tee both miss.
The Dolphins had the ball for just over a third of the game last weekend so it’s no surprise their stats were so terrible. Willis had under 100 passing yards against one of the best defenses in the league, but Ollie Gordon scored the only TD of the game with a 12-yard rush. Malik Washington led them in receptions again, but it’s a total crapshoot behind him.
Look. The Bengals should win, of course they should, but they’re also such a tough team to be a fan of and I genuinely wouldn’t be too shocked if they managed to pull off a loss here. I definitely can’t take them to win by 7+. Chase Brown o67.5 rushing yards.
Browns +2.5 @ Jets: 39.5
The Browns come off their mini-bye at 3-1 and top of the AFC North. The Jets have shown life but sit at 1-3.
I don’t need to express my feelings on him as a person, but 5 TDs and 1 INTs in the last 3 games show that Watson might actually be capable of playing the game still, he’s scrambled pretty well too. The Browns have got Quishon Judkins going finally, he had nearly 100 yards and a TD against the Steelers and should carry that form on here, he’s got Raheim Sanders and Jaleel McLaughlin behind him taking some snaps. Denzel Boston looks like he’s got a good connection with his QB and KC Concepcion looks good too. They “won the draft” again and it might actually be paying off for once.
The Jets are without Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall again, last week it provided Braelon Allen with ALL of their carries, 14 for 59 yards and apparently meant they couldn’t pass the ball at all. I would expect Kenyon Sadiq to get more targets despite catching 0 of his 4 last weekend.
Am I buying the Browns as road favourites?! I mean, I have to lean that way at least. Denzel Boston longest reception o22.5 yards – 46,55,28 and 60 yards in their 4 games so far.
Texans -7 @ Titans: 37.5
On Thursday night football the Cowboys became the first team to lose a home game to a team who were 0-4 or worse since 1975 (Schefter with the stat) It looks like around 200 games – This game may well see that happen again with both of these teams winless so far this season.
The Texans had Nico Collins back last weekend and he changed the offense immediately with 118 yards and 2 TDs, I think it’s safe to say he’ll be the main man again. Xavier Huchinson and Jaylin Noel will probably get some looks behind him and Dalton Schultz isn’t bad either if he gets the chance. The run game is terrible though, Monty and Woods are sharing carries and not doing a whole lot with them. They always say defense isn’t reliable year on year and while they still get pressure they are giving up a lot of points this year.
The Titans are the second worst team in the league and may be looking for a new QB in next years draft with Cam Ward looking worse than Kyler Murray at the moment. He does have a WR1 though with Carnell Tate having a breakout game last week with 145 yards. Wan’Dale should be fine for 5 short targets a game and with pressure expected it might be more on him this week. Pollard found the endzone as he plods his way to 800+ yards on the season but nothing here is exciting, I won’t even back Spears receptions any more.
The Titans themselves have said the Texans might be the best 0-4 ever, almost like they know they’re going to lose and are trying to lessen the backlash. I like the over here. Wan’dale Robinson o3.5 receptions – 4/6
Colts +2.5 @ Steelers: 43.5
The Colts don’t take their bye week and go straight into action looking for 3 wins in a row. The Steelers had a mini-bye and look to bounce back after losing to the Browns on TNF. Massive rest disparity here.
It was a cushy win for the Colts in the end last week as they figured out how to get the ball moving without much talent at WR. We thought it would be Josh Downs getting all the targets but Ashton Dulin and Laquon Treadwell received 6 targets each, I’d still think it will be Tyler Warren and Josh Downs getting more of the ball, but realistically it should just be more Jonathan Taylor on the deck who was in and out of the game last weekend but finished with another 2 TDs.
The Steelers aren’t a good team but can always grind out results. Jaylon Warren might have Rico Dowdle back with him in the backfield but that shouldn’t hurt him too much as he’s very much the RB1 here. They are without Michael Pittman for a month now as he’s finally gone to IR, again not a huge loss as he’s barely seen the field since joining them anyway, so probably a good day for Roman Wilson again and DK Metcalf will get the deeper stuff. Washington and Friermuth will always pop up with some touches as well and stopping Darnell is no mean feat, he’s a big lad, both scored last weekend.
The Colts defense isn’t good and even if the Steelers offense stutters I think I’m leaning their way, and under on the total. Treadwell o1.5 receptions 10/11
Raiders +3.5 @ Patriots: 45.5 (5Action)
The Raiders lost their first game last weekend against the Chiefs while the Pats won their Super Bowl with victory over the Bills.
The Raiders might be a pretty good team and the line shows them a lot of respect. Brock Bowers is their best pass catcher and rarely actually lines up at TE so gets good matchups in the passing game, he had another 11 targets and a TD last week after 14 targets and a TD the week before and that won’t change. It’s a sign of their team that Mayer was second in receptions and Jeanty third. Jeanty popped up on the injury report in the week but should be fine, he’s repaying the high draft pick they spent on him. Cody White seems like a tidy redzone target for them, usually at decent odds.
So the Pats beat their main rivals, I’m not going to say they’re back but it did look a heck of a lot better for them. Rhamondre Stevenson has a knock but it seems like he’ll play, if he is limited it should mean more for Treveyon Henderson who shared carries with him last weekend and is always the more explosive player. Romeo Doubs is a tough one to get right, he has had shocking games this year but notched 2 TDs last weekend in their win. Hunter Henry is a solid RZ threat and Drake Maye is always capable with his legs.
I’ve got nothing on the spread, I’d be leaning to the Raiders getting the 3.5 and the overs. The Raiders have been in high-scoring games which always seem to be close. Tre Tucker longest receptions – 4/5
Vikings -2.5 @ Saints: 41.5
The Vikings are unbeaten coming into this after 5 field goals was enough against the Dolphins. The Saints have their 3rd consecutive home-game and look for their second win.
Little happy feet Kyler Murray should be looking at baseball, for him to be the QB of an unbeaten team is ridiculous, he has been terrible this season so far and I don’t see that changing even if he does have Justin Jefferson back on the field after he missed last weekend (there we go, that should get him a good game). He is mobile but doesn’t seem to be rushing after the concussion in his debut game and without that he’s only got the 3rd and long deep shot where he hauls it downfield. It makes this team impossible to take on offense. Aaron Jones is the only real back they’ve got and he’s not great. Justin Jefferson is probably the best WR in the league and his return should help a little but he’s a tough start now. Jordan Addison might get some deep stuff but it’s a rough offense.
The Saints could do with realising there’s a first half in games, they have been starting terribly but finishing strong. they sit 29th in 1st half points scored, but 2nd in 2nd half points. Obviously that’s skewed as they’re usually losing by then, but it’s just where they seem to be this season. They like the TEs in the redzone with Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant scoring 3 each this season. Chris Olave will lead them in yardage though as he always does; 2nd in receptions and yards at this early point of the season. Devaughn Vele has been a fine signing for them as well, they use him more than one would have expected. Alvin Kamara got most of the touches last week but I still think Kendre Miller might be a good goal-line pick at better odds.
Vikings defense is incredible. The Saints are tough to call. I wouldn’t be shocked if they pulled off the win here. I’ve got nothing on the total 4/1 Kendre Miller anytime (PP) – I said to myself I’d take 4/1 so I think I’ll put it up on here.
Giants +3.5 @ Commanders: 41.5
The Giants are 3-1 and fair underdogs against the 1-3 Commanders who welcome back their starting QB this week.
He might not be great at football, Jameis Winston is always entertaining; 3 TDs, 2 INTs last week as they won comfortably in the end against the Cardinals. Having Malik Nabers looking healthy again is huge for them, and he and Malachi Fields aren’t a terrible 1-2 at WR. Isiah Likely will be reliable at TE and Cam Skattebo will run through walls for his team, he and Najee Harris will likely be a decent split on the ground as they surely look to try and keep the ball out of Winstons’ hands.
Jayden Daniels is back for the Commanders with a brace on his non-throwing arm, it will be interesting to see how he plays but his rushing is such a huge part of his game and that might be dulled while playing with a repairing elbow. Terry McLaurin is questionable and Stefon Diggs is out so it’s not pretty for them regardless. Austin Ekeler immediately got a lot of work last weekend with Jacory Crosskey-Merritt showing his limitations in the run game, he was crap, but with Rachaad White back this week it’s muddied further. Dyami Brown and Treylon Burks had to step up with WR injuries and Antonio Williams got a lot of targets without doing much in their loss last weekend.
It’s rough for the Commies, I’ve got to take the Giants as the healthier team. Nothing on the total again, lean under I guess. Rachaad White o9.5 rec yards. – With Diggs missing someone has to step up and I think it might be the dump-off guy.
Bears -1 @ Packers: 45.5 (Sky)
This will be an emotional one for the Bears organisation as the legendary Mike Ditka passed away this week, they are 3-1 having won games with three different QBs this year. The Packers scraped a win last week to go to 2-2.
Tyson Bagent gets the start again after doing enough against the Jets last weekend. The Bears had the ball for 42 minutes of the game last week as they ground it out with Kyle Monangai getting the touches after Swift fumbled early on. Monangai will miss this week though so it’s D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson on the ground. They should have success against this Packers defense but if they throw it there’s a lot of targets for them and the ball is spread around. Odunze led them last week, Burden is capable and Loveland at TE was expected to have a huge year but hasn’t really got going yet.
The Packers run game is dismal, but that’s good news for Matthew Golden and Christian Watson in the passing game, Watson has been the guy most of the season so far but both are showing their talent this year. Tucker Kraft and Jonnu Smith will get a little at TE. Probably worth noting that Kaleb Johnson led them in carries last week and with Chris Brooks out there’s less competition there this weekend.
A big game in the NFC North, one that will probably be tight but I trust Ben Johnson to create enough points of the Bears to get the job done in Lambeau. Not one I’ll be backing though as divisional games are always weird. Probably under on the total. Roschon Johnson anytime – 11/2 PP/Sky/Betfair
Broncos -3.5 @ Chargers: 41.5
The Broncos haven’t looked good but sit at 2-2, the Chargers haven’t looked good and haven’t won a game. Another divisional game which could be horrible to watch.
The Broncos top corners are both injured, so that’s not good for them, but the defense will probably be solid enough still. Sean Payton is taking over offensive play-calling after their ineptitude has shone through so far this season, that’s probably good news for Bo Nix who sits 22nd in QBR and that feels about right. Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton haven’t done a whole lot and RJ Harvey actually led them in receptions and yards against the 49ers last weekend. JK Dobbins and Harvey haven’t run well and Tyler Badie is getting touches as well, I really think Jonah Coleman will get a lot of the ball when he’s back from his IR stint.
The Chargers have been terrible, but throwing an INT on the first attempt last week really cemented my opinion of them. The OL is dead again, the QB isn’t all there and the run game they wanted to rely on is pretty crap as well, Keaton Mitchell and Omarion Hampton share touches in that area. Tre Harris is getting a lot of targets with Ladd McConkey either playing injured or missing. It sounds like he’s playing this week but can’t be trusted. Technically they should have a good chance in the passing game tonight but they’re so unreliable this year.
Obviously we think the Broncos should win here, but nope, not for me. Neither team has been good this year.
Lions -5.5 @ Cardinals: 54.5
The Lions games have a ton of points at least, they’re 2-2 while the Cardinals show flashes in each game and sit at 1-3 with Marvin Harrison heading out the door to team unknown in the coming week.
Rinse and repeat for the Lions really. Jamhyr Gibbs is unstoppable and will score again at a new low of 2/9, Amon-Ra St. Brown didn’t find the endzone last weekend but may well bounce back, and maybe this is the start of the Jameson Williams hot streak, once he gets on one it’s usually a game or two at least. Sam LaPorta found the endzone last weekend and I will mention Aiden Hutchinson who’s a beast on their defense.
QBs facing the Lions would be QB2 in fantasy football so it should be a good for Jacoby Brissett and specifically the TE’s. Trey McBride is already the most targeted player they have and he gets a dream matchup here, so I’ll be taking him at whatever odds and maybe Elijah Higgins who found the endzone last week. Michael Wilson gets most of the rest of their targets now he’s settled back in and will probably be the one again here. Jeremiah Love has looked fine at RB with Tyler Allgeier mixing in as well.
I mean, points points points. I guess Lions on the spread but their trouble stopping teams makes it hard to have them winning by a TD. Trey McBride anytime – 11/10; Elijah Higgins 10/1 (Starsports, 9/1 Coral/Ladbrokes)
49ers +3 @ Seahawks: 46.5 (C5)
A huge game in the NFC as a whole, the 4-0 49ers, go to Seattle to take on the 3-1 Seahawks. The winner is surely the favourite for the NFC as the Rams stumble early on.
Brock Purdy hasn’t been sacked so far this year and has 11:1 TD to INT ratio as they’ve comfortably won all their games this year. George Kittle nothced his 4th TD of the season last weekend and will be targeted frequently again. Mike Evans played through a rib injury and led them in yards last week with not a whole lot of any more talent behind those two in the passing game, Deebo will be involved in rushing and receiving but they don’t seem to be trusting him for a whole game. Kaelon Black continues to get touches on the ground but Christian McCaffrey will get all the important work on 3rd downs and at the goal-line.
The Seahawks are Jaxon Smith-Njigba and not much else, obviously he led them in receptions and yards last weekend but didn’t find the endzone, and due to that the passing game didn’t look great. Emmanuel Wilson had 21 carries and 3 receptions, the rest of the pass-catchers had 1 catch at most, it’s limited. Wilson did what was needed last week though, 120 yards and a 2 TDs in total for him and it looks like he’ll be the main man again with Zach Charbonnet still not back, although ahead of schedule. Rashid Shaheed might get a deep shot but is not trustworthy.
I think I’ve got to go for the unders as both defenses should be on top here. It feels like the 49ers win but I’d probably be leaning to the Seahawks getting the job done. The 49ers won the regular season game here last year before getting stomped in the playoffs.
Ravens +3.5 @ Falcons: 43.5
Lamar Jackson misses for the Ravens so it’s Tyler Huntley for the 3-1 AFC Northers, while the Falcons look pretty good with Penix back at QB, they’re now 2-2 after losing their first two.
Huntley is a solid enough backup and if he can do similar to Lamar they’ll put up points still. They’ll surely rely on Derrick Henry more on the ground and those chunk plays to Zay Flowers who manages to get in yards of space on seemingly every play. Rashod Bateman will get some touches and Mark Andrews and Matt Hibner may get more as the release valve at TE.
The Falcons dominated the Saints on Monday night as they ran all over them, Bijan and Brian Robinson combining for 5 TDs. Bijan is the best RB in the league, so while they won’t be directly competing it’s nice to see two of the best backs in the league in this one. Obviously, I don’t expect similar from Brian Robinson but he showed his worth last week. Drake London’s numbers with Penix are crazy and just 5 receptions was a down-game for him.
It’s a shame it’s at 1am in the UK as this should be quite a fun game on offense. I’ll take the overs, and maybe it’s my AFCN bias, but the Falcons on the spread. Derrick Henry – 4/5 (BetMGM) – I’ll happily take the king at nearing evens.
Bills +3 @ Rams: 54.5
The two pre-season favourites for their conferences face off on a cracking looking MNF. The Bills lost their first game last weekend while the Rams welcomed back Puka and won a game that shouldn’t have been close in Phillie. The last game between these two in LA finished 42-44, give us another one of those!
Josh Allen has been playing banged up and probably will do all season due to how he works but that doesn’t really affect him on the pitch. He should have most of his weapons here with DJ Moore expecting to play, with him missing there have been good games for Keon Coleman, can they get both of them popping in the same game? Khalil Shakir is a PPR dream and had half his receptions for the season last weekend. He had lost a lot of that work to Dalton Kincaid but that evened out last week. James Cook will get the carries on the ground but Ty Johnson has shown his worth for a few years now and will get carries and receptions as well.
The Rams dominated last weekend but couldn’t finish enough of their drives, they had 415 yards to the Eagles 172, but Stafford threw 2 INTs which cost them points. Kyren Williams had a great game though with 2 TDs and nearly 150 yards, that relegated Blake Corum to just 5 carries. Puka Nacua obviously had most of the passing game with 9 for 125. That means Davante Adams is back to his numbers of last year and Tyler Higbee got a lot of the ball as well. It’s a relatively limited passing game by the numbers but obviously it works.
Should be a fun game, and has a very high target, one that I won’t suggest going over, but for props we should be on forn a good one. I’ll probably use my PP weekly freebie to put together a stupid betbuilder on this one.
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