It’s finally here, the first Sunday of the season, and I can’t wait! A lot of the markets I like to pick from went up yesterday and the wife was out on the piss, so I spent a lot of last night with bottles of Bud and the laptop open trying to find some value from this evenings matches. One of the big benefits of watching it in the UK is that there’s so many 6 o’clock kick offs to choose from and keep an eye on, and we get Redzone for free, which for anyone betting, or involved in a Fantasy league is a godsend! Every game that’s inside the final 20 yards gets it’s plays shown live on there, and it’s going to be on Sky sports mix (407) for the first month of the season as well as on red button, so you can get it on SkyGo as well!
Packers @ Jags – 6pm
So on to the matches, the first televised matchup is an Old School vs New School clash as the hotly tipped Green Bay Packers travel to Florida to take on the young up-and-coming Jacksonville Jaguars, who’ve also been riding the hype train all summer after last seasons offensive performances from Blake Bortles and the two Allens showed their intent. Their run game has been improved with the signing of Chris Ivory who’s expected to take the goal line carries while TJ Yeldon does the hard work between the 20s. They’ve strengthened their defence in the off season and welcome back Dante Fowler from a year long absence so they should be a more balanced team. The Packers will be sporting their own returning hero in the form of Jordy Nelson. Aaron Rodgers’ favourite target should help all areas of their attack, Cobb will be back at no.2, and fully fit after a difficult year as the main target, and a slimmed down (yet somehow still huge) Eddie Lacy will be in the backfield ready to run over some defences, add to that TE Jarred Cook who’s got talent but has never had the QB. This should be a high scoring match, the Packers are the favourites for top scoring team in most places, and the Jags love throwing the ball.
Chris Ivory anytime TD – 6/4 (Paddypower) (Won’t recieve his full compliment of snaps due a calf injury) – Jarred Cook anytime – 7/2 (Paddypower)
NY Giants @ Cowboys – 925pm
If you were expecting the second game to be a lower scoring affair than the first then you were wrong, this match has the potential to be even higher scoring than the early game. Neither team is very good on defence, despite the Giants spending big in that area. The Cowboys don’t rate highly in that half of the game either. Their offences on the other hand are very good, even with two rookies in for the Cowboys, Dak Prescott in for the perennially injured Tony Romo, behind the best O-Line in the league, and 4th overall pick Ezekiel Elliott, who averaged over 5 yards per carry in pre-season games, add a fit again Dez Bryant to that, and to a much lesser extent Cole Beasley in the slot and the everlasting Jason Witten at TE and you’ve got a good attack. The Giants of course, have a guy you may of heard of called Beckham, he’s going to be as good as ever, and they added the exciting Sterling Shepherd opposite him who should get the benefit of going up against the defences no.2 corner backs. Eli will find either of them if they’re open. They seem to have figured out their run game after trying 4 guys per game last year it’s reported that Rashad Jennings will be the no.1 and will get the bulk of the carries.
Over 46pts – 10/11 (I was going to go for Beckham and Zeke TD scorers, but at 7/4 there’s no value there)
Partiots @ Cardinals – 130am
The Tom Brady-less New England Patriots travel across the country to open their season at a top Superbowl candidate, brooklyn gangster Jimmy Garoppolo starts behind centre and will have to avoid former team mate Chandler Jones. There’s more problems on the thrown of ease as Rob Gronkowski has been confirmed as out, so that’s most of the offence missing for the first game. ‘The Black Unicorn’ Martellus Bennett will take the field as no.1 TE but he’s not Gronk. No-one is. Amendola is reported as a go, as is Edelman. This could be a LeGarrete Blount game if they try and protect Jimmy G, but with Belichik coaching, anything could happen. The Cardinals however seem to be a full go, with John Brown given the all clear after a series of headaches kept him out of a lot of the pre-season. A pre-season in which Carson Palmer was awful, but it was the pre-season, so who cares. Brown, Floyd and Fitzgerald, supported by Jarron Brown, and JJ Nelson in the passing game and potential top RB David Johnson will get the start there, with Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington backing him up should he go down. Their defence sports potential DPOTY Tyrann ‘Honey Badger’ Mathieu amongst a handful of other talents, I can’t see anything other than a Cardinals win, but coach Belichik usually finds a way to win.
Blount and Floyd both to score – 11/2 (JJ Nelson is also tempting at 13/1 with PP, compared to 3/1 on 365! But there’s no guarantee he’ll get any snaps)
So TV matches done, i’ll rush through some of the other bets i’ll be looking at today
I’m going to stay small stakes on todays matches, Recommend 2 pts per bet for now.
Both players to score are SkyBet, rest are odds from 365 unless stated.
Raiders to score every quarter – 9/4 – Good offence vs an awful defence, expecting that to be a very high scoring game
Seahawks to score every quarter – 13/8 – Dolphins offensive line is good, their defensive line is not, they’ve also been playing a high tempo offence so will give the ball back quickly
Browns v Eagles – Defensive TD scored – 2/1 – A rookie and RGIII at Quarterbacks. Eagles defence could be sneakily good this year. (An Eagles D/ST TD is at 7/2 if you want to get fancy)
Jeremy Hill – 2 or more TDs – 7/1 – Bengals will be running more this year, he had a poor year last year but has looked good in pre-season
Christine Michael – 2 or more TDs – 11/2 – Will be starting at RB, See above for more reasons (Add this to Hill for a double) – 1pt
Marvin Jones – Anytime TD – 17/10 (PP) – 2 or more 16/1 (1pt) – Going to be a high scoring game, Matt Stafford was a top 5 QB at the end of last year. Jones has reportedly been his go-to guy.
Both players to score patent – Christine Michael and Jermaine Kearse 7/1 (Seattle), Antonio Gates and Spencer Ware 9/2 (KC v SD), Marvin Jones and Donte Moncrief 9/2 (Det v Ind)(.5pt patent) – Kearse has been starting in front of Tyler Lockett, Rivers is trying to get Gates the TE TD record, he needs another 8, Ware is starting RB there. Jones reasons above, Moncrief expected to have a breakout year.
Tight End 1pt trixie (Skybet) – Barnidge 6/4 (Cle) Delanie Walker 15/8 (Titans) Walford 2/1 (Oak) – Barnidge will probably be the fave target for the Browns, not much else at Tennessee, and Walford is up against one of the worst defences vs tight ends.
Summary (2pts per bet unless stated)
- Jared Cook anytime – 7/2 (Paddypower)
- Giants v Cowboys o46 pts – 10/11
- Blount and Floyd to score TDs – 11/2 (Skybet)
- Raiders to score every qtr – 9/4
- Seahawks to score every qtr – 13/8
- Browns v Eagles – D/ST TD – 2/1
- Jeremy Hill 2 or more TDs – 7/1
- Christine Michael 2 or more TDs – 11/2
- 2 or more double – 51/1
- Marvin Jones – anytime 17/10 – 2 or more – 16/1
- BPTS Patent – Michael and Kearse, Gates and Ware, Jones and Moncrief (Skybet)
- Tight End Trixie – Barnidge, Walker, Walford (Skybet)
Total point outlay –